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Washington State Primary Election Quick Takeaways

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Washington State Primary Election Quick Takeaways WASHINGTON STATE PRIMARY ELECTION QUICK TAKEAWAYS By Bill Stauffacher, IIABW’s Lobbyist • LOW TURNOUT: The August 5th primary election had an extremely low turnout that strongly favored Republicans. No statewide race or initiative/referendum was on the primary ballot. • ONE CUP OF TEA PARTY PLEASE: While Tea Party voters’ presence was felt, no Eric Cantor-like primary election upsets occurred in the Evergreen State. However, in primary races with two or more Republicans, Tea Party candidates either won or had enough electoral presence to cause friction within the party. • CONTINUED SPLIT CONTROL IS A SAFE BET: By winning in every critical race, Senate Republicans are best positioned to retain their majority coalition of the upper chamber in 2015. Majority House Democrats performed as expected and should maintain majority control. The current legislative make-up is: o House Democrats 56-42 majority; o Senate Republicans/Majority Coalition Caucus (24 GOP members; 2 Democratic members) 26-23 majority; and o Democratic Governor Jay Inslee is midway through his first term. ELECTION SUMMARY – STATE LEGISLATIVE RACES The low turnout that typically favors the GOP tempered both Republican excitement and Democratic concern about the outcome. Since Washington ballots can be mailed on Election Day, a large number of ballots have not yet been counted. Key Senate Republican/Majority Coalition Caucus races: • Sen Andy Hill: Hill, the Senate Ways and Means chair, polled 53.78% against Democratic challenger Matt Isenhower. Given both house seats in this Microsoft suburban district are held by Democrats, the Hill-Isenhower race remains the #1 priority race for both parties. • Sen. Steve O’Ban: O’Ban’s 56.25% over Democratic Rep. Tami Green puts O’Ban in a strong position heading into the general election. • Challenger Mark Miloscia: This seat is held by retiring Democratic Sen. Tracey Eide, but will likely flip to the GOP. A former Democratic state legislator who switched parties to run for the Senate, Miloscia grabbed 56.9% against Democratic candidate Shari Song. • Sen. Tim Sheldon: Sheldon’s second-place finish with 33.36% means he’ll advance to the general election against Democratic challenger Irene Bowling (35.24%). The heavy GOP turnout lifted Republican no-name candidate Travis Couture’s numbers to within 580 votes of Sheldon. • Sen. Michael Baumgartner: The first-term Republican’s 57.23% victory over Democratic challenger Rich Cowan puts Baumgartner in a comfortable position for the general election. • Sen. Jan Angel: One year removed from a narrow victory in an expensive and vicious special election race, Angel won with 56.92% against Democratic challenger Judy Arbogast. • Sen. Doug Ericksen: With 56.93% in the primary, Ericksen has a solid lead over Democratic challenger Seth Fleetwood. • Sen. Joe Fain: Fain’s 66% primary win makes him untouchable in the general election. • Sen. Pam Roach: In a three-way primary, the controversial Roach had a slight 40.46%-39.21% lead over GOP Rep. Cathy Dahlquist. With a rogue Democrat polling 20%, conventional wisdom suggests that Democrats will move toward Dahlquist in the general election. This all-GOP fight will be among the nastiest, bloodiest and personal races in the state. Key races for Senate Democrats: • Sen. Steve Hobbs: With 52.3% the Democratic moderate remains the right fit for his district, easily pushing past GOP challenger Jim Kellett. • Challenger Rep. Cyrus Habib: This seat is held by retiring Sen. Rodney Tom, the Democrat who became the Senate Majority Leader after joining with Republicans to form the Majority Coalition Caucus. With Habib’s 63% primary win over Republican Michelle Darnell, the Democrats are certain to pick up this seat. Key races for House Democrats: • Rep. Monica Stonier: Republican challenger Lynda Wilson is winning the primary 51.7%-48.3%. • Rep. Pat Sullivan: The House Majority Leader’s 52.08% win over GOP challenger Barry Knowles makes this race a competitive one in the general. • Rep. Dawn Morrell: Morrell’s 51.2% win over Republican challenger Melanie Stambaugh is a setback for House GOP efforts to pick up a swing suburban seat. • Rep. Larry Seaquist : Seaquist's 50.92% win over an energetic Republican challenger, Michelle Caldier, indicates the Democratic incumbent is running stronger than expected. • Rep. Roger Freeman: Freeman’s narrow 50.98% win over GOP challenger Jack Dovey puts this race in play in the general election. • Speaker Frank Chopp: The longest-serving speaker in state history polled over 80% against Socialist candidate Jess Spear. Given the 2013 election of a socialist to the Seattle City Council, this challenge created anxiousness within Seattle Democratic ranks. • D Open Seat 28th: Democratic challenger Christine Kilduff advances to the general. Four-time local GOP candidate Paul Wageman outpolled Monique Trudnowski, the House Republican Caucus-backed candidate. • D Open Seat 21st: Democrats Strom Peterson and Scott Whelpley face off in an all-D general election. Key races for House Republicans: • Rep. Jesse Young: Young, the appointed GOP legislator, outpolled another Republican but faces a strong challenge from former Democratic Sen. Nathan Schlicher. • Open Seat 44th : With a 51.95-48.05% win, Republican Mark Harmsworth will have his hands full in this GOP-held open-seat race against Democrat Mike Wilson. • Rep. Brandon Vick: Vick survived a GOP challenger and should win in the general election. • Rep. Leonard Christian: The appointed Republican legislator lost in a three-way race. Republicans Bob McCaslin, the son of a former state legislator, and Diana Wilhite advance to the general. • Rep. Matt Shea: The Tea Party-backed Shea defeated Republican establishment candidate Matt Arritola 55-45. This race will become a messy general election fight between the Tea Party Republicans and mainstream-establishment Republicans. • Open Seat 14th : Republican Gina McCabe received 45% among three GOP candidates. She’ll face Democrat Paul George in the general and will win easily. • Open Seat 31st : GOP candidate Drew Stokesbary will face Democrat Mike Sando. This race will be one to watch as a potential problem spot for Republicans. • Open Seat 42nd : Republican Luanne VanWerven advances and will face Democrat Satpal Sidhu. ELECTION SUMMARY – CONGRESSIONAL There were no upsets in the state’s 10 congressional races. • WA-4TH Open Seat (Rep. Doc Hastings – Retired): Tea Party Republican Clint Didier will face former GOP state legislator and state agriculture director Dan Newhouse in the general election. • WA-1ST. First-term Congresswoman Suzan DelBene has 51.5% and will face Republican challenger Pedro Celis in the general election. DelBene has a significant advantage in this race. • Other Democratic Incumbents: Congressmen Denny Heck (WA-10th), Derek Kilmer (WA-6th), Adam Smith (WA-9th), Rick Larsen (WA-2nd) and Jim McDermott (WA-7th) are headed toward re-election. Heck is the inly competitive race, facing former county council member and state legislator Joyce McDonald in the general. • Republican Incumbents: o Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA-3rd) is winning with 48.8%, but a GOP candidate had over 13%. o Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-5th) is winning with 51.75%, but another 8% went to a GOP challenger and 11% went to an independent candidate. o Congressman Dave Reichert (WA-8th) is headed toward re-election. .
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