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Solid-State Lighting R&D Plan June 2016

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Solid-State Lighting R&D Plan June 2016 Solid-State Lighting R&D Plan June 2016 Prepared for: Solid-State Lighting Program Building Technologies Office Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy DOE/EE-1418 [This page has intentionally been left blank.] DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency, contractor, or subcontractor thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The document should be referenced as: DOE SSL Program, "R&D Plan," edited by James Brodrick, Ph.D. Contributors Norman Bardsley Bardsley Consulting Monica Hansen LED Lighting Advisors Lisa Pattison SSLS, Inc. Morgan Pattison SSLS, Inc. Kelsey Stober Navigant Consulting, Inc. Victor Taylor Navigant Consulting, Inc. Jeffrey Tsao Sandia National Laboratories Mary Yamada Navigant Consulting, Inc. Page i [This page has intentionally been left blank.] Page ii Executive Summary The solid-state lighting (SSL) revolution embodies a profound shift in how we use and consider lighting, and represents a huge opportunity to generate significant energy savings. The energy being used for lighting represents a significant portion of global energy use. Rising electricity prices, mounting concerns about climate change, and desire for energy independence are causing the global lighting market to shift toward more energy-efficient light sources. In most regions of the world, even with government policy support, less than 10% of existing lighting installations use SSL products. For example, the Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that in 2015, light-emitting diode (LED)-based lamps comprised just 6.4% of the U.S. installed base [1]. Nevertheless, most forecasts project extraordinary growth of SSL technology over the next 5 to 10 years with SSL becoming the dominant lighting technology in terms of sales, total amount of light generated, and installed units. These are dramatic growth projections for a large market and present significant challenges for the industry. Remaining challenges include ongoing efficiency improvement, continued price reduction, manufacturing scale-up, effective building integration and installation, and incorporation of new value and features that can accelerate adoption and provide further energy savings, such as controls and connectivity. Addressing these challenges also offers the United States the opportunity to secure a dominant role in the technology and manufacturing of these products. In the United States, LED lighting is forecasted to account for the majority of installations by 2030, representing 88% of the lumen-hours produced by general illumination [2]. The high efficacy of SSL sources is a critical factor in the drive for higher adoption. LED lighting already can be more efficient than all incumbent technologies, but there is still room to improve. Using fairly conservative projections for performance improvements, DOE has determined that by 2030, LED technology can potentially save 261 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually, a 40% reduction of the site electricity consumption forecasted for a “no-LED” scenario. Assuming the more aggressive projections, outlined in this report, can be realized through continuing investment in R&D, the total annual savings would increase to 395 TWh by 2030, a 60% reduction of the site electricity consumption [2]. This electricity savings corresponds to about 4.5 quads of primary source energy, which is nearly twice the projected electricity generation of wind power and 20 times that of solar power in 2030. At an average commercial price of $0.10/kilowatt-hour, this would correspond to an annual dollar savings of about $40 billion [2]. However, in order to reach the performance levels Page iii assumed in this analysis, substantial, continued improvements to efficacy and pricing are necessary. This underscores the importance of SSL and SSL R&D in any discussion of energy policy, due to its unprecedented opportunity to reduce energy consumption, thereby improving domestic energy security, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and saving money on electricity. The DOE SSL Program has set aggressive targets and has fashioned its program to remove technology barriers and accelerate adoption. DOE support is essential to achieving the greater than 200 lumens per watt (lm/W) luminaire efficacy program goal by 2025, reducing SSL manufacturing costs, and realizing huge energy savings. To achieve these goals and maintain the pace of development of the underlying LED and organic light-emitting diode (OLED) device technologies, DOE advocates continued focus on R&D. Improvements in LED package efficacy are becoming harder to achieve, and R&D is required to address fundamental technological barriers such as current efficiency droop, the efficiency gap of green LEDs, and the need to develop new high-efficiency, narrow linewidth down-converter materials. Still, SSL offers so much more than just improved efficacy. It represents a huge opportunity to improve the performance and value of lighting through enhanced controllability, new functionality, application specific lighting performance, novel form factors, and targeted improved well-being and productivity. SSL sources are inherently dimmable and instantaneously controllable; they can be readily integrated with sensor and control systems, thus enabling further energy savings through the use of occupancy sensing, daylight harvesting, and local control of light levels. SSL is at the heart of recent innovation in the lighting industry with respect to smart, connected, intelligent, and adaptive lighting. New functionality within the lighting system can add value by providing optimal lighting for the occupants and the tasks being performed through real-time controls, programmed sensor-driven responses, or learning algorithms. The high speed modulation capability of semiconductor light sources has introduced new opportunities and features such as indoor positioning capabilities. SSL offers the prospect of full color control over the light spectrum and will enable precise control over the delivery of light to reduce glare, reduce stray light, and optimize useful light. SSL affords new levels of control to create new lighting opportunities in areas as diverse as horticulture and human health. Most LED lighting technology to date has been engineered to address the near term market opportunities in the form of replacement lamps and retrofit luminaires. With an estimated 50 billion sockets in the world, these form factors clearly represent an enormous market and energy savings opportunity, but moving beyond these form factors will expand the concept of lighting and create entirely new lighting paradigms. Similarly, OLEDs offer a whole new approach Page iv to lighting based on their low luminance, thin profile, and potential for surface shaping. Inevitably, the discussion of SSL often focuses on first cost as one of the main barriers to adoption. Excellent progress has been made over the past year for LED lighting products. LED package prices are down to $1/kilolumen (klm) and the LED-based dimmable A19 60 W-equivalent replacement lamp has dropped below $8 ($10/klm). While this is still more expensive than conventional incandescent or compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs), rebates and incentives have and can further reduce the price to below $5. It is expected that SSL products will remain more expensive than conventional lighting on a first-cost basis for some time, but higher operating efficiency and longer operating lifetime (reduced maintenance and replacement costs) ensure that LED lighting is already highly competitive on a total cost of ownership (TCO) basis in many lighting applications; payback periods of less than 2 years in certain high-usage applications. Additionally, with the ability to provide new value-added functionality, price parity is no longer as important for consumer adoption. OLED pricing has been static over the last year, with a shortage of new panels and products being released. The rapid advancement of LED technology has created a moving target for OLED products in terms of lighting performance and pricing. Still, OLED manufacturers are optimistic that with a few key breakthroughs, including advancements in light extraction and manufacturing yield, OLEDs will offer a value proposition complementary with LED lighting approaches. The DOE SSL Program has developed a comprehensive R&D strategy to support advancements in both LED and OLED technology and maximize energy savings. This document, the DOE SSL R&D Plan (hereafter referred to as the R&D
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