Clippings Tuesday, August 25, 2020 Braves.com

These prospects could draw trade interest

By Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and Mike Rosenbaum

No one is quite sure what to expect from the Trade Deadline this year. With a shorter season, expanded playoffs and the deadline moved back to Aug. 31, it remains to be seen whether we'll see more or less movement than normal.

We've identified the most tradeable prospect for each of the 30 clubs. In many cases, it's the most talented Minor Leaguer in each organization who might be somewhat redundant. This year's possible pool of trade targets is much smaller, too, as only prospects currently on clubs' 60-man rosters, as well as players to be named later, can be traded at this season's Deadline. And while we realize that last-place teams such as the Pirates and Red Sox are much more likely to acquire prospects than trade them, that doesn't stop us from speculating.

(* indicates player is not in team's 60-man player pool)

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

Blue Jays: Griffin Conine, OF (No. 16)* Toronto’s 2018 second-round Draft pick led the Class A Midwest League in home runs (22) and slugging (.576) in his first full season, though he also struck out at nearly a 36 percent clip against younger competition. But despite the obvious concerns about Conine’s ability to make consistent contact, the 23-year-old outfielder’s power is very real and could appeal to a variety of teams looking to infuse their system with some pop.

Orioles: Bruce Zimmerman, LHP (No. 29) Acquired from the Braves at the 2018 Trade Deadline, Zimmerman had a strong first full season in the organization and looked like he would be ready to contribute in 2020 after an impressive Grapefruit League showing before the shutdown. It’s unlikely the O’s will be sellers, but Zimmerman is an advanced lefty who could help out a contending bullpen down the stretch if needed.

Rays: Greg Jones, SS (No. 11)* The Rays have no shortage of middle-infield talent on their 40-man roster, and perhaps even more at the team’s alternate training site. The organization has historically coveted those types of players, but with a division-best 19-10 record, they also are in a position where they can afford to part with some of that talent. Jones, whom the Rays took with the No. 22 overall pick in the 2019 Draft, could be expendable given his spot on the team’s depth chart, and it’s easy to envision many teams being interested in a switch-hitting shortstop with plus-plus speed.

Red Sox: Bobby Dalbec, 3B/1B (No. 3) Dalbec is hopelessly blocked by Rafael Devers at third base and Michael Chavis could be the Red Sox's right-handed-hitting first baseman of the future. But Dalbec deserves a look somewhere because he has huge raw power (his 59 homers in 2018-19 ranked sixth in the Minors) and plays a nifty third base with a strong arm.

Yankees: Oswald Peraza, SS (No. 4)* Peraza has plus speed and arm strength, produces some of the best exit velocities among Yankees farmhands and plays a quality shortstop. Poised for a breakout during a 2020 Minor League season that never happened, he might be expendable because he's three years away and New York has talented young shortstops throughout its system.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

Indians: Brayan Rocchio, SS (No. 6)* With superstar Francisco Lindor on hand through at least 2020 and seven gifted shortstops 21 or younger on our Indians Top 30, Cleveland can afford to deal from a position of strength. Known as "The Professor" because of his high baseball IQ, Rocchio has advanced feel for hitting, sneaky pop and plus speed.

Royals: Michael Gigliotti, OF (No. 29)* Kansas City is another team that’s unlikely to trade from its prospect depth this year, especially when guys such as Brady Singer and Kris Bubic have already made their debuts. Gigliotti, 24, doesn’t fit into the organization’s long-term plans and has never appeared above the Class A Advanced level, but he has a solid bat, can really run and is a natural center fielder who can play all three outfield spots. He was sidelined for most of 2018 after requiring ACL surgery on his right knee but bounced back in 2019 to slash .282/.369/.368 with 22 doubles and 36 steals in 87 games.

Tigers: Bryan Garcia, RHP (No. 18) It’s highly unlikely that the Tigers will move any of their young, up-and-coming prospects at this year’s Trade Deadline. They could, however, trade from their 40-man pitching depth, perhaps choosing to extract as much value as possible for a cost-controlled big league reliever. Garcia, 25, struggled during his first Major League audition last year but has fared better in 2020, posting a 2.45 ERA and .233 BAA over 12 appearances.

Twins: Brent Rooker, OF (No. 12) While Rooker missed time in 2019 with a wrist injury in May and a groin issue later in the year, he still showed his bat is just about ready to contribute (.281/.399/.530), albeit with a lot of strikeouts (33.8 percent K rate last year). He swung the bat well last fall with Team USA in Olympic Qualifying, and while he’s limited defensively, he could contribute to a rebuilding team right now and there’s no real spot for him in Minnesota.

White Sox: Micker Adolfo, OF (No. 10) The White Sox outfield of the present (Eloy Jiménez, Luis Robert, Nomar Mazara) also looks like their outfield of the future because Mazara is the oldest of that trio at age 25. Adolfo offers tantalizing raw power and arm strength, though injuries and the pandemic have limited him to just 1,536 at-bats since he signed as the No. 2 prospect (behind Jiménez) in the 2013 international class.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

Angels: D’Shawn Knowles, OF (No. 9)* The Angels aren’t competing this year, so it’s doubtful they’d trade away prospects. But one area where they do have depth in the system is in the outfield. With Jo Adell trying to get his feet under him in the big leagues, Brandon Marsh not far behind and Jordyn Adams filling out the top three, a player like Knowles, who has yet to make his full-season debut, could be dangled to bring in more talent that’s closer to the big leagues.

Astros: Forrest Whitley, RHP (No. 1/MLB No. 21) Whitley once ranked as the game's top pitching prospect, but he's in the midst of a third straight lost season because of a suspension along with oblique and lat injuries (2018), shoulder inflammation and command issues (2019) and now the pandemic and a sore arm (2020). Would the Astros trade him now before his value takes more of a hit and their championship window closes? Would another team gamble on the ceiling of a pitcher former Houston GM repeatedly deemed untouchable?

A’s: Sheldon Neuse, 3B/SS (No. 7) Neuse made his big league debut late last year after a huge breakout season in Triple-A. There’s no room for him as a big league regular in Oakland, with Matt Chapman at his best position at third and Matt Olson at first. The A’s could bring him up to help out off the bench at multiple positions -- he can play second and left field along with the hot corner and short -- but his power and run production could be of interest to a rebuilding club.

Mariners: Justin Dunn, RHP (No. 8) His time in the big leagues has been a bit uneven, though he’s coming off the best start of his career (6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K) and his stuff is still very good. The Mariners are rebuilding and are more likely to see how their young arms can fare, but a contender could come calling with the idea of having Dunn help out of the bullpen during a playoff race, and maybe the rotation if there’s a need.

Rangers: Sherten Apostel, 3B/1B (No. 10) Apostel already has been involved in a Deadline deal, coming to the Rangers as the player to be named in the Keone Kela trade two years ago. While he possesses a pair of loud tools in his well-above-average raw power and arm strength, Texas also has other quality hot-corner prospects in Josh Jung and Davis Wendzel, its top two picks from the 2019 Draft.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

Braves: Kyle Muller, LHP (No. 7) The Braves have been moving a lot of their pitchers around as they’ve tried to find the right mix, especially with Mike Soroka gone for the season. Guys like Muller and top pitching prospect Ian Anderson could be called upon to help out, or someone like Muller could go the way of fellow 2016 draftee Joey Wentz, who was dealt to the Tigers in the Shane Greene deal at last year’s Deadline.

Marlins: Jose Devers, SS (No. 13) A cousin of Rafael Devers, Jose was traded earlier in his career as part of the package that sent Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees in Dec. 2017. The Marlins have surprisingly hung in the playoff race thus far and have enough shortstop depth to part with the sweet-swinging Devers if they want to bolster their big league roster.

Mets: Mark Vientos, 3B (No. 8)* One of the youngest players in the 2017 Draft, when the Mets selected him in the second round, Vientos is one of the more projectable power hitters below the Double-A level, even if his numbers-to-date don’t exactly reflect that much. The 20-year-old packs a ton of strength into his projectable 6-foot-4, 185-pound frame, and the hope is that his massive raw power will begin to translate in games as he gains experience and improves as an overall hitter.

Nationals: Eddy Yean, RHP (No. 8)* No Nats prospect received as much trade interest in 2019 as Yean, who signed for $100,000 out of the Dominican Republic in July 2017. The 19- year-old righty impressed with his advanced three-pitch mix at two levels during his U.S. debut last summer, compiling a 3.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 43/17 K/BB in 46 1/3 innings (10 starts) between the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League and Class A Short Season New York-Penn League. With his combination of present stuff and projection, Yean could net Washington a solid return that could improve their playoff chances in 2020.

Phillies: Adonis Medina, RHP (No. 6) A former Top 100 prospect, Medina still gets good reports on his raw stuff, but his inability to miss bats in 2019 (7 K/9) and frequency of getting hit (8.8 H/9) concerned some. He can rely on his sinker and early contact too much, but he’s also only 23 with a year of Double-A under his belt. The Phillies are in last place in the NL East, but also only four games out, so it’s not out of the question an arm like Medina could be used to bring in big league help.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

Brewers: Payton Henry, C (No. 17) Minor League catching depth isn’t an issue for the Brewers, who have five catching prospects on their Top 30 list. Henry, the second-highest ranked in that group behind Mario Feliciano, showcased his power potential at Class A Advanced Carolina last season and finished among the Carolina League leaders in home runs (14, tied-fourth) and RBIs (75, third). The 23-year-old backstop does have some contact issues though, and he ranked among the circuit leaders last year in both strikeout rate and whiff rate. But the combination of right-handed power and solid defense behind the plate could make him an intriguing Trade Deadline target.

Cardinals: Elehuris Montero, 3B (No. 8) Montero garnered Class A Midwest League MVP honors in 2018, when he led the circuit in batting average (.322), slugging (.529) and OPS (.910) in his first full season, but regressed across the board at Double-A Springfield in ’19 and didn’t fare any better in the Arizona Fall League. That he ranks behind fellow third basemen Nolan Gorman and on the Cardinals Top 30 list makes the 22-year-old theoretically expendable, and his 40-man roster status could make him particularly appealing to a rebuilding club.

Cubs: Chase Strumpf, 2B (No. 9)* The Cubs appear set in the middle infield for a while with Javy Báez and , and they just spent their 2020 first-round choice on shortstop Ed Howard, so Strumpf -- a 2019 second-round pick -- is expendable. He's an offensive-minded player whose bat has drawn comparisons to Ian Kinsler and is similar to Hoerner's.

Pirates: Ji-Hwan Bae, 2B/SS (No. 12) The Pirates are clearly playing for next year at this point and they do like Bae’s ability with the bat (career .309 hitter with a .391 OBP in 121 games) and his speed (41 steals), so this would be a long shot. But the Pirates do have depth up the middle, with many seeing 2020 first rounder and Starling Marte trade acquisition Liover Peguero as the future double-play combination, leaving Bae without a home.

Reds: Jonathan India, 3B (No. 5) The club’s first-round pick in 2018, taken fifth overall, fought through a wrist injury in his first full season, hurting his production, though he did reach Double-A. The Reds are within shouting distance of a Wild Card spot, though it’d be surprising for them to be major buyers. A healthy India’s power potential, along with his ability to play a strong third as well as a solid second, could be of interest to other teams if the Reds make a run.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

D-backs: Luis Frias, RHP (No. 9) Listed at 6-foot-3, 180 pounds, Frias is one of many promising young hurlers in Arizona’s system, already boasting an electric arm that produces a pair of plus pitches (fastball, spike curveball). Splitting the 2019 season between Class A Short Season Hillsboro and Class A Kane County, the 22- year-old righty posted a 2.83 ERA with 101 strikeouts and 29 walks in 76 1/3 innings. They traded away 2019 first-round comp pick Brennan Malone in the offseason Starling Marte trade and have the type of arms to swing another big deal.

Dodgers: Keibert Ruiz, C (No. 3/MLB No. 78) The Dodgers have resisted parting with Ruiz in the past, but also have Will Smith behind the plate in Los Angeles and Diego Cartaya (MLB Pipeline's top-rated amateur in the 2018 international class) in their system. That's an abundance of catching riches and Ruiz's upside as a solid all-around backstop could fetch quite a lot on the trade market.

Giants: Alexander Canario, OF (No. 7) For the second-straight year, the Giants surprisingly find themselves contending for a Wild Card berth as the Trade Deadline approaches. Though they're in rebuilding mode, they could consider dealing Canario, a potential center fielder with solid tools across the board, because the club has a wealth of outfield prospects that also includes Heliot Ramos, Hunter Bishop and Luis Matos.

Padres: Gabriel Arias, SS (No. 8) The Padres house one of baseball’s very best players in shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., and it’s highly unlikely that Arias will supplant Tatis at the position anytime soon. As a result, teams could target Arias, a toolsy 20-year-old shortstop who slashed .302/.339/.470 with 17 homers and 75 RBIs last season during a breakout campaign at Class A Advanced Lake Elsinore and the Padres, winners of seven straight games, are in a position to capitalize on their high-end prospect depth.

Rockies: Colton Welker, 3B/1B (No. 9) Welker started off his 2019 season on fire then cooled considerably in the second half of his first year in Double-A before finishing off with a so-so performance in the Arizona Fall League. He started getting more time at first base during the ’19 season and in the AFL (It’s not like he’s going to supplant Nolan Arenado at third), but the Rockies have many options at first as well.

Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Braves amend loans amid heavy financial losses

By Tim Tucker, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

The Braves have renegotiated some conditions on loans totaling hundreds of millions of dollars, team owner Liberty Media said Monday.

The announcement came two weeks after Liberty disclosed that the Braves’ revenue in the April-through-June quarter plummeted 95%, falling to $11 million from $208 million in the same period last year. The delayed MLB season started in late July, but many of the Braves’ revenue streams remain shut off as games are being played without fans in the stands amid the continuing coronavirus pandemic.

Liberty Media said in a news release Monday that agreements governing $297 million in Braves debt on Truist Park have been amended so that some financial covenants on the loans won’t apply until the quarter that ends Sept. 30, 2021. The company also said an $85 million credit facility, fully drawn by the Braves as of June 30, has been amended so that a covenant won’t apply until the quarter that ends March 31, 2022. Details of the covenants weren’t provided.

The amendments “require that certain conditions be met … including but not limited to minimum liquidity thresholds,” Liberty Media said. Separately, the Braves extended the maturity on a $100 million operating credit facility to December 2022. With the moves, the Braves and their subsidiaries currently are “in compliance with all debt covenants,” Liberty said.

On Aug. 10, Liberty Media said the Braves were working with lenders to obtain modifications on some of the team’s debt. As of June 30, the Braves carried total debt of $718 million.

The team posted an operating loss before amortization and depreciation of $26 million for the April-through-June quarter, compared with a profit of $62 million in the same period last year.

5 things Braves: Dansby Swanson’s hitting, scoring streaks

By AJC Sports, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Dansby Swanson may not have been able to score the tying run to extend the Braves’ rally against the Phillies Sunday, but Atlanta’s shortstop has had an impressive start to the 2020 season.

Swanson is the only player in the majors with multiple hitting streaks of nine or more games this season after opening the year with hits in 10 straight. Swanson started the season hitting from the bottom of the order (7, 6) and was moved up to Ozzie Albies’ usual No. 2 spot on Aug. 4. Swanson went 3-for-5 with a run scored from the leadoff spot Sunday — his 10th game batting in the spot.

Here are five things to know:

⋅ In the leadoff spot since Aug. 11, Swanson has hit .383 with seven extra-base hits and 11 runs scored.

⋅ Swanson led off the bottom of the first Sunday with a line-drive to left — for a double — after a seven-pitch at-bat against Phillies starter Zach Eflin that extended his hitting streak to nine games.

⋅ Swanson’s three doubles Sunday were a career high. He became the first player to do so for Atlanta since laced three doubles and knocked in four runs on Sept. 25, 2019.

⋅ Swanson has scored a run in six-straight games. He has scored a team-most 25 runs and is tied for third in the league.

⋅ Swanson leads all shortstops with 36 hits this season. (San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr. has 37 hits overall, but has been the designated hitter in two games.)

The Athletic

Braves to face Gerrit Cole, but Max Fried has been the better pitcher in 2020

By David O'Brien

Gerrit Cole, the man with the richest contract ever given a pitcher, will be on the Truist Park mound for the New York Yankees on Tuesday in the opener of a two-game series against the Braves. But it’s the guy pitching for Atlanta the next night, Max Fried, who’s having the better season.

That’s despite the fact Cole has met expectations in the first year of a colossal nine-year, $324 million contract, which says plenty about just how terrific Fried has been for the Braves. He has outperformed Cole through the first month of the season, as measured by most conventional statistics as well as advanced metrics.

Put another way, as great as Mike Soroka was in his 2019 rookie season for the Braves, Fried is on pace to have an even better season, albeit one that will be much shorter after the schedule was slashed from 162 games to 60 because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Cole, who is making $36 million this season — he will every year during the life of his contract through 2028 — is 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA in six starts in his first season in the Bronx. The 29-year-old has 44 strikeouts and only six walks in 36 innings, with seven homers allowed.

Cole’s 0.889 WHIP — walks-plus-hits per inning pitched — is nearly identical to the 0.885 he posted with Houston last season when he went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and was the AL Cy Young Award runner-up.

Meanwhile, Fried, who is 26 and making $585,000 in his second full season, is 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA in six starts and has 33 strikeouts and 11 walks with no homers allowed in 34 innings. He has an 0.971 WHIP and a 2.34 FIP, compared with Cole’s 3.81. (FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and measures a pitcher’s effectiveness at preventing homers, walks and hit-by-pitches and creating strikeouts).

This is a far more consistent pitcher than the version of Fried who debuted with the Braves in 2017 and bounced between the bullpen and starting rotation and between the minor leagues and major leagues before beginning to put things together last year in his first crack at the rotation.

“Yeah, for sure,” said Fried, who went 17-6 in 2019 with a 4.02 ERA that was inflated by a few rough outings. “The more experience you get, the more you’re able to go out there, the more you’re able to learn from your past experiences of, whether it’s things not working out later in the games, knowing what you have to do different.

“Just trying to use the experience that I’ve gained up to this point and try to implement it for my next one.”

The Braves haven’t said who will start Tuesday against Cole. It widely has been speculated that top prospect Ian Anderson would be called up to make the start in what would be his major-league debut.

After saying during the weekend that they planned to announce Tuesday’s starter Monday, the Braves changed course and said they would wait until Tuesday. That fueled speculation they could trade for a starter or were finalizing a trade that would send away a current member of the 40- man roster to open a spot for Anderson to be added to the 40.

Fried could be arbitration eligible as a “Super Two” player this winter, and the Braves seem likely to try to sign him to a long-term extension. It probably should be sooner rather than later, because as he inches toward free agency it might be difficult to convince him to leave potential millions on the table in exchange for security. And if he were to keep up his current pace — or even close — for this season and next, his price tag would soar.

The Braves needed badly for Fried to be an ace after losing Soroka to a torn Achilles only three starts into the season and after being without Cole Hamels because of arm issues that have sidelined him since spring and with starters Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb demoted to the alternate training site because of poor performance. The Braves hope to have Hamels back at some point in September, and Foltynewicz has been working to add pounds and strength in hope of rejuvenating himself and his dramatically reduced velocity.

Amid all that complicated mess, the Braves needed Fried to step up, and the lanky Los Angeles left-hander responded resoundingly, moving into the next tier of pitchers by staying healthy and gaining more consistency with his impressive repertoire of mid-90 fastballs, devastating sliders and curveballs and enough changeups and sinkers to keep those pitches in the back of hitters’ minds.

Fried was asked if there were any one thing he could point to that has made him so much better than he was two years ago. He thought about the question for a moment.

“I would say it’s one thing that led to another and has just kind of been a chain reaction,” he said. “For me, as soon as I believed that I was able to compete up here and I was good enough, then I was able to not press as hard and try to be too perfect. And then it allowed me to realize that if I just go and execute my pitches, I’m going to have a real good chance for success.

“That chain reaction just really allowed me to go out there and just feel like I’m playing the game again, rather than trying to press.” Before we go further, it should be noted that Soroka last season came out of the gates as impressively as Fried has, if not more so: Soroka was 4-1 with a 0.98 ERA through his first six starts and had 34 strikeouts with 14 walks and one homer allowed in 36 2/3 innings. He didn’t allow more than one earned run until his ninth start and had a 1.38 ERA through 10 starts before his first bad outing of the season.

Fried isn’t expected to make more than 13 starts in this truncated season. Soroka was 8-1 with a 2.07 ERA after 13 starts in 2019, then gave up 10 earned runs in 24 innings during his next four games, a modest 3.75 ERA in that stretch reminding everyone that he was human — and only 21 years old for more than half of the season.

After he went 9-1 with a 2.03 ERA in his first 14 starts, Soroka was 4-3 with a 3.20 ERA during his final 15 regular-season starts, then pitched brilliantly in his only postseason start in Game 3 of the NL Division Series at St. Louis.

For Fried, the next five weeks, beginning with Tuesday’s high-profile matchup against the Yankees and Masahiro Tanaka, probably will determine whether he’ll be widely regarded as one of the truly elite pitchers in the NL.

“I think he’s getting there,” Braves veteran catcher Tyler Flowers said. “He definitely has the makeup to do it. … Just his ability, the weapons he has, he has the ability to get out of any tough situation. He’s grown so much, just trusting his delivery and executing pitches. That’s why he’s been pretty consistent and successful.”

As things stand, Fried would finish higher in the NL Cy Young race than Soroka’s sixth place in 2019, perhaps a lot higher. If the voting were today, Fried likely would be a top-two or top-three choice — only Cincinnati’s Trevor Bauer has better overall stats among NL starters.

“He’s maturing,” Brian Snitker said of Fried, who is as soft-spoken off the field as he is intense on it and is a cerebral sort who in the past was sometimes too hard on himself. “He’s picking up right where he left off last year. He’s getting another year under his belt. He really works hard, he’s studying the game, figuring out — he’s going pitch-to-pitch, I think is a big thing with Maxy. I mean, every pitch has a purpose.”

Among pitchers with enough innings to qualify for rankings, Fried leads the NL in ERA+ at 362, while Shane Bieber (418) leads the AL. For some perspective, last year the ERA+ leaders for the full season were the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Hyun Jin Ryu (179) and the Astros’ Cole (185), and in 2018, New York Mets’ Jacob deGrom led the majors with a 218 ERA+.

ERA+ measures ERA compared to league average — 100 is used as a base number — and adjusted to ballparks pitched in. Bauer has a ridiculous 707 ERA+ but has made only four starts.

After giving up two runs on Opening Day against the Mets, Fried hasn’t allowed more than one run in his past five starts. Opponents are hitting .188 with a puny .274 slugging percentage against him. At Truist Park, he has a 2.92 ERA in 18 starts in two seasons.

Fried said improved fastball command has been the biggest key to his improved performance and consistency since last season.

“Just being able to throw it for strikes when I need to, be able to get some outs with it,” he said recently. “Lot of times last year I felt like I was using my off-speed as a crutch. So being able to throw my fastball where I want has been a huge help.”

Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG) is an advanced metric that takes into account exit velocity, launch angle and on some types of batted balls, sprint speed. Among pitchers who’ve faced at least 100 plate appearances, Fried led the majors before Monday with a .281 xSLG allowed, ahead of Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo (.316) and Minnesota’s Kenta Maeda (.332).

In another advanced metric, Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA), Fried was tied with Maeda for second at .257, behind Bieber’s .244 and ahead of deGrom’s .266. And in Expected Batting average (xBA), Fried was tied for fifth among MLB qualifiers at .201, behind only Cole (.197), Lance Lynn (.191), Bieber (.189) and San Diego’s Dinelson Lamet (.189).

Fried doesn’t pile up strikeouts at the rate of Cole and others, but he induces soft contact better than anyone in the majors has this season. Among pitchers who made at least two starts, Fried’s 82.9 mph average exit velocity was the MLB leader before Monday, ahead of Tampa Bay’s Ryan Yarbrough’s 84.4, followed by Miami’s Pablo Lopez (84.5). Pitchers like the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks (85.3) and Houston’s Zack Greinke (also 85.3) were not far behind them.

Fried’s average exit velocity has improved from 91.1 mph in 2018 to 89.2 in 2019 to 82.9 this season, and his “hard-hit percentage” in that period went from 46.1 to 39.1 to just 24.7 this year. The percentage of balls hit off the sweet spot against him went from 38.2 in 2018 to 32.4 in 2019 and just 20.0 this season.

For some comparison, Soroka last season had 88.1 mph average exit velo, 37.5 hard-hit percentage and .402 xSLG.

“He’s not going to be perfect, but Max is going to go out, and he’s learned to compete, and he’s learned to adjust on the fly and make adjustments in the course of a game,” Snitker said. “And Max is at a point every pitch has a purpose. And he has an idea what he wants to do with every pitch that he throws. And I’ve seen him when things haven’t went well in some starts, and he can make the adjustments on the fly and during the game. And when guys start doing that. …

“It took Max a while to do that, it didn’t just happen for him; two or three years ago he was struggling to figure things out. He stayed after it and kept working, and with the experience, he’s getting confidence in his ability to do it.” Some Braves are hitting the ball hard

Speaking of hard-hit balls, the Braves have several players hitting baseballs with authority and one who most assuredly has not.

Center fielder Ender Inciarte’s 77.1 mph average exit velo this season is dead last in the majors among all players with at least 25 plate appearances, according to Baseball Savant.

That’s likely not as surprising to most fans as is the identity of the Braves player who has hit the ball hardest: Flowers. The catcher’s 93.2 exit velo was tied with Travis Shaw for 18th in the majors before Monday, just ahead of Jorge Soler and Mike Trout, among others. Next best among Braves is Marcell Ozuna’s 91.7 and Freddie Freeman’s 91.2.

But Flowers has only 12 “batted-ball events.” Among major leaguers with at least 25 BBE, Ozuna led the Braves with his exit velo, tied for 35th in majors. Ozuna had 73 BBE, while Braves leaders in that category were Dansby Swanson (80) and Freeman (79).

Inciarte has barreled just one ball this season, while Padres phenom Fernando Tatis Jr. led the majors with 17 barrels before Monday.

Freeman leads the Braves with nine barrels according to Baseball Savant, followed by Ozuna and Swanson (eight apiece) and Adam Duvall (seven). Duvall has a team-best 13.0 barrel percentage rate. Travis d’Arnaud and Austin Riley both have six barrels, with d’Arnaud’s 12.5 percentage rate the second best among Braves.

Ronald Acuña Jr. had four barrels before he got hurt, and Ozzie Albies had two. Both players have been out with wrist injuries.

The Braves hope to have Acuña back during the Yankees series, but Albies isn’t expected back before next week.

Nick Markakis, the Braves’ hottest hitter before going on the IL last week after exposure to someone with COVID-19, has continued to test negative and could return to the lineup as soon as Tuesday.

Exploring hypothetical Lance Lynn trades with the Braves and White Sox

By The Athletic MLB Staff

Jamey Newberg: The trade deadline is in six days, and while the craziness of 2020 has a number of teams still trying to decide what they are and whether going for it this summer is the right move, some know exactly what the agenda is for the week. Texas is one of them.

In a season inescapably marked by compression and chaos, the Rangers have managed to cram three big-picture narratives into the first month of the schedule.

Texas starts out 3-8, the pitching and offense and defense are all shaky, Corey Kluber and Jose Leclerc are lost for the season: This wasn’t supposed to be the year, and it looks like it won’t be.

Texas wins seven of its next eight, stabilized by a veteran rotation that overcomes shaky offense and shaky defense, and the club suddenly sits in a wild-card spot: It’s 2020 and nothing makes sense; maybe sneaking into the playoffs after the way the last few years have gone is worth chasing, and if you’re going to be strong in one phase in October, it’s gotta be starting pitching, right?

It’s #TeamMeeting time as Texas gives up lots of grand slams and loses eight straight; no team has a worse run differential … because everything is shaky: This is, beyond doubt, not the year.

When the Rangers traded Mark Teixeira to Atlanta in 2007, the two teams were a little ahead of the curve, making a blockbuster trade deadline deal involving a star player who wasn’t yet on the cusp of free agency. Now it’s the norm. There are still rental trades and will be in the next few days, but the returns won’t be anything like those in deals involving impact players who come with club control beyond 2020.

In other words, Lance Lynn (under contract through 2021) stands to have more value on this week’s trade market than Trevor Bauer (under contract for another handful of weeks).

For Texas, the Lynn conundrum is likely the front-burner topic of discussion in the front office. The 33-year-old is having the best season of his career and one of the best in baseball. In seven starts, he’s held hitters to a .156 batting average and .510 OPS, striking out 50 in 45.1 innings while issuing only 14 walks. On top of that, there’s not a sturdier starter in the league; he’s riding a streak going back to 2019 of 31 straight starts of 100 pitches, getting into the seventh inning on average. And in each of his last nine starts, dating back to last season, he has allowed two runs or fewer.

There isn’t a team that couldn’t use Lynn for the stretch run this year — and he’s set to make just $8 million in 2021. What’s two pennant races of Lance Lynn worth?

More than keeping him around for next year, when the Rangers lineup will surely be upgraded as ownership and the front office look to field a club that will help fill its new ballpark? More than exploring the possibility of extending his stay beyond 2021? Or, given the state of the team, would the better play be to capitalize on Lynn’s production and trade him for young players who have the chance to be part of the long-term core of the team going forward?

Lynn isn’t the only player Texas could consider trading in the next few days. But besides being rentals, Mike Minor (velocity, stamina) and Shin-Soo Choo (production, health, 10/5 rights) have seen their trade value decimated. Relievers like Rafael Montero and Joely Rodriguez — each controllable through 2022 — should draw interest (Jonathan Hernandez isn’t going anywhere) but probably couldn’t headline an impact deal. Trading two-and-a-half years of Joey Gallo would fetch a ton, but would set the rebuild back by years.

Jon Daniels has shown over his 15 years as Rangers GM that he will always listen, and with Lynn, he’s in a position to do just that. He has one of the prize commodities on the market, and doesn’t need to move him. But one thing seems clear: The Rangers are no longer unsure of what direction to go as the trade deadline approaches. They are looking down the road. The only question is how to best do that.

The usual suspects will certainly check in; the Yankees and Dodgers are probably engaging every team positioned to sell. But both teams will be around for years, and might be reluctant to part with key prospects when 2020 isn’t jumping out as a unique year to push the chips in.

The Braves and White Sox, on the other hand, should be feeling it right now. Atlanta leads the NL East and GM is rarely hesitant when it comes to trades — plus, outside of Max Fried the rotation is in tatters, with Mike Soroka and Cole Hamels sidelined. The Braves haven’t won a World Series since before Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies were born, and should be in win-now mode. Chicago won a title in 2005 but not a single playoff series since. They’re in a scrum with Minnesota and Cleveland for two guaranteed playoff spots out of the AL Central, and the Indians suddenly have pitching issues. Offensively, the Sox are scary. But the rotation could use help. And they are clearly emerging from a lengthy rebuild.

If I’m Daniels, I have a feel for what it would take to trade Lynn and specifically what young Braves and White Sox players would push those teams to the front of the conversation — but I’m sitting back. Let interested teams come at me with ideas, and we can go from there.

David O’Brien, if you were in the role of Anthopoulos Whisperer, and James Fegan, if you were to get in GM Rick Hahn’s head, what sorts of offers are you making to add Lance Lynn to your clubs’ chances in 2020 — and in 2021?

David O’Brien: Hi Jamey, hope things are well with you in this strange season. Thanks for checking in. I would just start by saying that the Braves indeed are in the market for a starting pitcher, given the diminished state of a rotation that consists of ace Max Fried and a lot of questions, the answers to which change on a weekly basis. Any pitcher ideally will be a frontline guy to pair with Fried and give Atlanta a potent 1-2 combination for the postseason, since the Braves can’t count on Cole Hamels to be that guy or even to pitch at all, though they are certainly hoping the injury- plagued veteran comes off the injured list at some point in September and actually pitches in his first game for Atlanta.

So they need a guy who’s not just a guy — not just someone to fill out the rotation and provide four or five decent innings every fifth day — but can give the Braves a legit chance when matched up with another team’s No. 2 in the postseason. Someone like, for instance, the Rangers’ Lynn, who could suddenly vault the Braves from division favorite ill-equipped for a postseason run, to being a team with a great chance to finally end the almost unfathomable streak of no playoff-round wins since 2001. That’s right, the Braves haven’t won in the postseason in nearly two decades.

Having said that, I should also add that Anthopoulos is not just reluctant to trade top prospects, he has thus far refused to trade any. Not one of the Braves’ premier prospects have been traded by Anthopoulos since he took over as general manager in November 2017. Coincidentally, about as close as he’s come was trading Kolby Allard to the Rangers in exchange for reliever Chris Martin at the trade deadline last summer. But while Allard was a former first-round draft pick who climbed as high as No. 37 in Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects in 2017, by the time the Braves traded him his stock had slipped. He was no longer a top-100 and had been surpassed by several younger pitching prospects in the Braves organization — including some that the Rangers are probably asking for now in a potential trade for Lynn. Someone like 6-foot-6 lefty power arm Kyle Muller, whom Baseball Prospectus had at No. 60 in its preseason prospects this year. While I certainly can’t see Anthopoulos trading away his top pitching prospect, Ian Anderson, and also have doubts as to whether he’d trade either of the top lefties, Muller and Tucker Davidson, the fact that Lynn has an additional year of very affordable control might make Alex A. at least consider giving up one of those guys as the centerpiece of a deal that includes another, lesser prospect. But keep in mind, the Braves are more protective of prospects than most other teams, particularly since their minor league system is now feeling the effects of the MLB sanctions for malfeasance under the previous regime of John Coppolella and , which cost the Braves 13 prospects and also kept them out of international free agency for a few years. As a result, the lower levels of their minor league system are thin.

JN: Interesting. Earlier this month, I’d spitballed a deal that would send Mike Minor back to Atlanta, along with closer Rafael Montero, for Muller and Bryce Ball. That ship never got out of drydock, however, with Minor struggling to recapture the form he showed for the entirety of 2019. But if Texas is going to move Lynn, I would think that Muller, if not a better pitching prospect, would be necessary. Unless outfielder Drew Waters is on the table.

The Rangers can keep Lynn and trade him this winter or next summer. Or ride out his contract and pick up a premium draft pick after tendering a qualifying offer. Or seek to extend his deal in Texas. They’re going to be picky — and know this: To get the right return, they’ll be open to adding a reliever or perhaps Todd Frazier to shore up the Braves’ third base situation down the stretch.

So let’s hear it. Make me a Lynn offer.

DOB: While I don’t claim to know Anthopoulos is thinking — he’s notoriously covert in his negotiations and often says if you hear a trade rumor involving Braves, that’s a good sign it’s not true — I do feel confident in saying there’s no way, no how the Braves would’ve given up six years of control of Muller for one month of regular-season season control of Mike Minor even if he were pitching well, like he did a year ago. But the point is moot now anyway, since Minor has nearly a 7.00 ERA and 1.400 WHIP through six starts.

The Braves are one of the few teams in baseball that doesn’t need bullpen help. If anything, they could afford to move a reliever in a deal to get a starter. So I’m not sure how they match up with the Rangers, but I do know that Lynn fits the bill for what Anthopoulos looks for — affordable contract plus control beyond this year. And they need a starter even worse than they needed bullpen help a year ago at the trade deadline, when Anthopoulos pulled off three separate deals to bring in Martin from Texas, plus Shane Greene from Detroit and Mark Melancon from San Francisco. The previous year at the deadline, he filled needs in the rotation and bullpen and also traded for Adam Duvall, who’s been a big piece for the Braves this year in their injury-plagued offense. Point being, Anthopoulos isn’t shy about making bold moves, but just hasn’t given up the absolute top-tier guys yet. But to get Lynn, arguably the best starter available — if he’s available — then Anthopoulos knows he’ll have to part with at least one of those elite, Top-100 type prospects. And given the Braves’ position atop the standings and the fact they’ve done it recently without Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies and Nick Markakis, all expected back this week or next from the IL, I think the Braves will go for it. You mentioned Bryce Ball. He’s a huge dude with “light-tower power” as they say, and has no position with Freddie Freeman entrenched at first base. But with the DH coming to the NL almost certainly, by the time Ball is ready in a couple of years he could slide into that spot.

Still, the Braves might make the former Dallas Baptist slugger available. I don’t know if they’d be willing to give up both a big-time pitching prospect like Muller and a potential power-hitting prospect in Ball, but I also don’t think it’s out of the realm, if that’s what it would take to bring a frontline pitcher they’d control another year at such a low rate. I know one thing: Such a trade would look more like a football deal from the Braves’ end: Ball is about as big as Muller, at least 6-5 and 240 pounds. His nickname is Drago, because of the striking resemblance to the Russian boxer in the “Rocky” films. His other nickname is Ball Bunyan, for obvious reasons.

Still, it seems more likely to me the Braves would try to give the Rangers a top pitching prospect with some big-league time who’s still trying to figure things out, like one of the former first rounders such as Kyle Wright or Touki Toussaint, who both have great stuff but haven’t been able to put it together yet in their mostly brief stints with the big-league team over the past two or three years. Baseball America had Wright at No. 64 in its preseason top 100 this year, and had Toussaint at No. 53 a year ago.

With Muller or Davidson, the Braves might decide either has too high a ceiling to trade before they’ve pitched in the majors. If so, perhaps a package with both Wright and Toussaint? (I realize many Rangers fans would look at their MLB stats and go, this is all they could get for Lynn? But if they look them up, they’d see both are highly regarded.)

JN: So the primary offer is Wright and Toussaint, though it sounds like you might be open to a Muller/Ball package instead. What say you and the White Sox, Mr. Fegan?

James Fegan: Now that I’m inside Rick’s head, I’m flooded with all this newfound knowledge about his collection of New Trier High School hats, I’m pleasantly surprised by some entries on his running playlist, and while handing the ball to Lance Lynn would provide less day-to-day anxiety than a Reynaldo López or putting a rotation slot onto the talented shoulders but newly repaired elbow of Dane Dunning, I don’t think that want elevates to a need.

López has returned from injury, Dunning impressed, Carlos Rodón is on the mend and Gio González is viable depth. It would certainly be easier to hand the ball to Lynn for Game 3 of a playoff series than Dylan Cease, but Lynn would be pushing aside names that have been cultivated as long- term pieces for the last three years. The analysis for the Sox is more complex than simply “Is Lynn better than these guys?” (yes, he is). The Sox have pledged not to ship out value for rentals, and with a year of control after this 30-odd remaining games, Lynn is in that strange middle ground between an expense they would not consider, and the sort of multi-year veteran boost that Dallas Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal were added to provide alongside their young core. Not to mention, who knows how much salary they are in a position to add anymore.

And while Lynn would provide some certainty where there is little in 2021, the Sox would also be returning Michael Kopech to the rotation, are less likely to have reins on Dunning, and would hope by then that Jonathan Stiever would be nearing a de—good grief! Could you imagine how exhausting it would be for someone to call about a trade, and the other GM to just talk endlessly about all the reasons they have to not make the deal?

Well, hopefully it made an impression on Jon Daniels, because the Sox would love to make a deal that resembled the one they made with the Rangers last December — not the part where Nomar Mazara is slugging .300 after 60 plate appearances, but one where they traded away a ‘tweener with no certain long-term role in their contending run.

The White Sox are not looking to talk about long-term 1B/DH Andrew Vaughn or second baseman of the future Nick Madrigal, and it would be too soon to talk about uncertainty with Kopech, who remains the highest-ceiling arm in the organization.

They would talk your ear off about Zack Collins, slated to back up Grandal next year, but needing the playing time to let his left-handed, three-true- outcomes profile fly — remember that home run he hit in Texas? He’s totally like that all the time! Don’t think about him as a below-average receiver, think about how you’ll be ahead of the curve when robot umps arrive! They would mostly let you take your pick of some of their recent prep picks on projectible arms, even if letting another org pick their favorite teenager from the backfields has recently backfired in notable fashion. Matthew Thompson is from the Houston area; who doesn’t love a hometown kid? Jared Kelley is from nearby too; wouldn’t it be funny to have a player to be named later in a trade and it turned out to be a guy who was already in the 60-player pool?

None of this sounds quite up to the level of the Braves offer. It seems like you would be more of the appetite of getting López, or Cease, someone who has already shown top-level stuff in the majors. Personally, I would be really open to that, because both are at a point where it’s uncertain whether they’re going to take the command leap to be effective starters, but that uncertainty has not fully transferred to outright doubt and skepticism. Maybe for López, that time has already passed (On the other hand, remember that time he shutout the Rangers for eight innings? He’s totally like that all the time!). Cashing out now could be a very smart play, and even if Cease or López make the leap in Texas, that doesn’t mean it was wrong to give up on the idea that they were going to make it in Chicago.

But I doubt the Sox are at that place of surrender with them and their precious and plentiful years of control, and would sooner offer Collins, Thompson and Micker Adolfo, and not mourn it too hard when it was laughed off.

JN: It appears that the key theme here — and ultimately probably an impediment to Texas and Chicago coming together — is that while acquiring Lynn might qualify as a “want” for the Sox rather than a “need,” the same can be said for the Rangers. They don’t need to trade Lynn, for the reasons stated above.

If I’m reading your Hahn neuro-eval correctly, the concepts you’d want Daniels to mull over are: (1) Cease or López (not nearly enough) or (2) Collins, Thompson and Adolfo (not really tempting for any reason other than Micker’s 80-grade name) — and to stay the heck away from Vaughn, Madrigal and Kopech (understandable).

Before I move on and focus on whether the Braves can convince me (well, Daniels) to move Lynn, how much heartburn do you expect Hahn would have if the ask were Cease, Stiever (hey, I whiteboarded a Stiever-to-Texas deal just before the season got started! And why do I keep trying to trade Mike Minor?) and Thompson? Truth be told, I think the Rangers would like to add some offense if they’re going to trade Lynn, but the strength of the Chicago system is clearly on the mound.

JF: I think he wonders about what might have been. Cease’s command is a mystery at this point. Stiever had a forearm tightness scare in spring. Thompson has thrown two professional innings. There’s plenty of reason to not cling to any too hard. If the Sox were just a year farther along in their process, with Robert and Madrigal entrenched and closer to their primes and Kopech back in action, if Lynn had one more year of control, if he were maybe not a big, husky 33-year-old that they would bank on top-end production from, they would be ready to make this true leap into contention mode and take this big slice through their pitching prospect depth.

As is, while I can’t quibble with your valuation, Lynn is just not quite a perfect fit to all their issues and target dates. After the pandemic, it’s not clear what financial resources will be available to plug holes that emerge, so if they’re going to purge depth for one win-now guy, it really needs to be perfect.

Also, they’re like way into Cease. They built him up from Low A, taught him a changeup and slider, smoothed out his delivery, and are very attached to him, perhaps to their detriment!

Have you considered making Lance Lynn into a 31-year-old who is signed through 2023? It would really help!

JN: Sorry, James, no time for the Benjamin-Buttoning of Lance Lynn. I’m busy trying to change the grand slam rules so the four runs are given instead to the pitching team (retroactively), and the Jonathan Hernandez cloning project is taking longer than I’d hoped.

So I’m going to assume that you’re not down with Cease/Stiever/Thompson for 14 months and two pennant races of age-33 Lynn. I’m not even sure Daniels would opt for it over other alternatives, including keeping and attempting to extend Lynn.

By the way, got another Tatis down there that the Sox feel like moving before he ever shows up stateside? You can keep Cease, Stiever and Thompson if so.

David, even though I’m unable to leverage a White Sox offer into a more aggressive ask of the Braves, I still feel Texas is in a strong position. Lynn is the best available starting pitcher on the trade market, especially considering his contract, and the Rangers aren’t in a corner.

Would Alex be enticed to make an exception and trim from the top of his farm system to get Lynn and bolster the Braves’ very real playoff muscle in the most pronounced way possible? This type of deal would get the Rangers’ attention: Lynn plus Todd Frazier and minor-league infielder Osleivis Basabe for minor-league outfielder Drew Waters and either Kyle Wright or Kyle Muller.

Lynn changes the top of the Braves’ rotation this year and next, Frazier temporarily shores up third base (and the Rangers would kick in $1.5 million to either cover his buyout for 2021 or pay down his $5.75 club option) and Basabe gives Alex an added boost to the lower levels of the farm system. Waters is arguably marginalized a bit if he can’t play center field, which Cristian Pache could hold down in Atlanta until Lance Lynn is 50. And Texas sure loves those Georgia prep players. As for the second piece, Alex has the choice to move on from Wright, who has struggled to convert potential to production at the big-league level, or to include Muller, who has yet to earn the opportunity Wright has had to prove whether he can start games in the major leagues.

If it doesn’t work for Atlanta, it’s all good — Texas will just move on to other possibilities with Lynn.

DOB: Regarding your comment about the Rangers loving Georgia prep players, so do the Braves. They’ve had quite a few of them over the years, and a big chunk of the fan base has been asking for Waters updates since the day the Braves drafted him. Not that Anthopoulos makes decisions based on how the fan base will react, but Waters has some strong tools and an unusual amount of swagger, which reminds some of a young Chipper Jones. He’s got to cut down on the swing-and-miss to follow his pal Pache to the majors, but there’s been talk for a couple of years now of a future outfield of Acuña and Waters flanking Pache, which might well be the fastest and most athletic in the majors if it comes to pass. Anyway, that’s my long-winded way of saying I’m not sure Anthopoulos is ready to seriously consider giving up Waters for a rental, even if it’s a rental like Lynn who could possibly help the Braves get over the top in two postseasons. The Braves became a heavy-analytics team after Anthopoulos arrived, and Lynn’s age and analytics probably don’t line up as a guy worth trading both a pitcher (Muller) and outfielder (Waters) whom the Braves, a team that still operates within payroll constraints could control for six years apiece. I am confident they’d trade Wright and/or Toussaint. But I’m not as confident in saying they’d consider moving Waters unless it were for a pitcher they could control for a few years like a Mike Clevinger.

Not sure how the Rangers stand with catching depth, but the Braves have a few catching prospects and could put together a package that includes something like Wright and/or Toussaint and catcher Alex Jackson, a solid defender with a strong arm and a guy who’s shown big-time power in the minors but has only had brief stints in the majors. They might even sweeten the deal with another power arm from their stable of them in the minors, but not one of their highest-rated prospects.

JN: Not that this would change your mind (or Alex’s), but regarding your comment that Lynn’s analytics (and age) might not be viewed as a fit, I’d submit that it was an embracing of the analytics that has elevated Lynn to this newfound level of acehood. He’s talked about buying into the data put in front of him the last couple years and changing his pitch usage accordingly; from an analytics standpoint, I’d say he’s proven to be an exemplar rather than a dinosaur. What an awful metaphor. As for his age, hey — Houston traded for the tail end of 34-year-old Justin Verlander’s contract three Augusts ago, and ended up extending him. He was older than Lynn is, making more than three times as much money annually (more than double even when factoring in Detroit’s cash subsidy), and wasn’t nearly as effective at the time of the trade as Lynn has been for the last year-plus.

Anyway, I don’t think Jackson or a second-tier minor-league arm as a sweetener would be enough to advance the talks. And that puts Texas in a similar posture with the Braves as it was in with the White Sox.

If Lynn/Frazier/Basabe for Waters and either Wright or Muller doesn’t get it done with Atlanta, and if Lynn for Cease/Stiever/Thompson doesn’t pique Chicago’s interest — for what it’s worth, I suspect Texas would add another secondary piece in either case if it would close a deal — then Daniels probably thanks Anthopoulos and Hahn for their time, waits until Monday to see if anyone else comes hard after Lynn, and if not, revives the internal debate over whether to eventually place Lynn somewhere else before his contract expires, to ride the contract out and recoup a draft pick, or to rip the contract up and extend perhaps the most reliable frontline pitcher they’ve had in the Daniels era.

That is, maybe they can lock Lynn up through 2023 after all, James. Still unsure about repurposing him as a 31-year-old, though. I’ll be sure to get back to you on that.

What do you think about the proposed deals? And will Texas end up trading Lynn? Let us know in the comments section!

ESPN

Everything you need to know at halfway point of the 2020 MLB season

By David Schoenfield

The motif heading into the 60-game season was straight out of a 1950s horror movie or a bad slogan for a 1980s Mariners team: Anything can happen. As we come upon the halfway point of the season, however, as much as we hoped for a crazy, unpredictable two months, the top of the standings look ... pretty much like we would have expected.

In the American League, we have a top-heavy picture, with the top six teams in FanGraphs' preseason playoffs odds all ranking in the top seven teams in the league (the White Sox, eighth in the preseason odds, are tied for the fifth-best record entering Tuesday). Those seven teams are currently given playoff odds of 95% or higher. The AL playoff race is essentially down to the fight for the eighth spot and seeding.

In the National League, the Dodgers are running away from the rest of the league as expected in the preseason odds, when they were the only team with odds above 80% to make the postseason tournament. The Padres are in the midst of a seven-game winning streak, the Cubs are 18-10 despite a mediocre plus-10 run differential, and the Braves are 16-12 even though Max Fried is their only starting pitcher to win a game. But it's still the Dodgers and everyone else. Their run differential of plus-79 is better than that of the other five NL teams with positive run differentials combined.

The NL playoff race is such a mess that only six teams are above .500, with the Marlins among them at 12-11. The Giants (14-16) and Rockies (13- 15) would be playoff teams despite sub-.500 records. That probably qualifies the Giants as the "surprise" team so far. Their preseason playoffs odds were just 12%, higher than only that of the Orioles, Marlins and Mariners. Normally, a lot can happen in a half-season, but time is already running out. If you're the Angels or Phillies or Brewers, it's time for a hot streak.

How did we get to this point? Let's look at some of the stories and factors that have driven the narrative of the 2020 season so far.

The Dodgers are really, really good The Dodgers are 22-8, which is a 119-win pace over 162 games. Their plus-79 run differential prorates to an incredible plus-427 over 162 games. By comparison, the 2001 Mariners, who won 116 games, were plus-300; the 1998 Yankees, who won 114, were plus-309. This is one of the unfortunate aspects of this season: We'll never know if the Dodgers could have been one of the greatest teams of all time and challenged the Mariners' record win total.

The Dodgers are leading the NL in both runs scored per game (5.70) and fewest runs allowed (3.07). Since 1901, 42 teams have led their league in both categories, but the Dodgers have a chance to make history. They also led the NL in both categories in 2018 and 2019, so they can become the first NL team to do so three years in a row and the first team to do so since the Yankees did it four years in a row before integration, from 1936 to 1939.

Fernando Tatis Jr.: The next level

Since he was a child, Fernando Tatis Jr. has lived to play. This year, the game needs him just as much as he needs it. Jeff Passan »

Entering Monday, Tatis leads the majors in home runs (12), RBIs (29), runs (29) and total bases (80). He's hitting .314/.396/.678. He's 6-for-6 in stealing bases. He's hitting .474 with runners in scoring position. He has made several acrobatic plays at shortstop and has yet to make an error. According to Statcast metrics, his hard-hit rate is in the 100th percentile, and his top sprint speed is in the 97th percentile. He has cut his chase rate from 29.8% as a rookie to 21.2%. He definitely isn't afraid to swing when the count is 3-0. The day after swinging 3-0 with a seven-run lead and hitting a grand slam, he stole third base with a six-run lead.

"Keep bringing energy you have to the game," Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson tweeted after the controversial grand slam, "we need players like you."

As with Reggie in the '70s, Rickey in the '80s, Griffey in '90s, Pujols in the '00s and Trout in the '10s, Tatis' game goes beyond the numbers. He is electrifying, which is immediately clear when you see him go first-to-home on a double that doesn't reach the outfield wall. But it's more than that. It seems like the game revolves around him. He is the straw that stirs the drink.

Tatis is dominating the headlines, but here are a few other players who have kept me intrigued about 2020:

• Fellow 21-year-old phenom Juan Soto had four hits Monday to raise his line to .400/.487/.815. Hmm, maybe somebody can hit .400. Soto, after all, is often compared to Ted Williams for his precocious hitting ability and plate discipline.

• Cleveland starter Shane Bieber is 5-0 with a 1.11 ERA and 65 strikeouts through six starts. Bieber is racking up strikeouts like Nolan Ryan or Pedro Martinez in their primes, even though his fastball velocity is just average for an MLB pitcher. He has above-average spin rate, which helps, but what he mostly does is vary his speed and hit his spots. He'll throw a 94 mph fastball, an 89 mph cutter, an 84 mph slider and an 83 mph curveball and mix in a few 88 mph changeups. He has walked just six batters. His current pace of 14.4 K's per nine would break Gerrit Cole's single-season record set last season. (As with all 2020 stats, the short season suggests that all these rate statistics come with an asterisk of sorts.)

• Mookie Betts is adjusting to L.A. just fine, thank you very much. He is hitting .300/.369/.664 with 11 home runs in 28 games, showing that he doesn't need Fenway Park to prop up his power numbers. His defense in right field is so good that I received a text from a die-hard Dodgers fan raving about how Betts is so much better than he realized -- and it didn't mention his hitting. Tatis might be the halfway NL MVP, but Betts is right there.

• Mike Yastrzemski actually leads both of them in FanGraphs WAR -- a main reason the Giants are hanging around .500. The grandson of Hall of Famer Carl Yastrzemski is a late bloomer -- he turned 30 on Sunday -- who was a pleasant surprise as a rookie in 2019 after the Giants acquired him from the Orioles. He has raised his game to another level, thanks to a more patient approach at the plate, hitting .309/.429/.645 with an NL-leading 20 extra-base hits and 23 walks.

• Nelson Cruz is 40 years old and hitting .340 with 11 home runs, which suggests he might last until he's 50.

• Finally, a fun Rookie of the Year race in the American League between two center fielders, Chicago's Luis Robert and Seattle's Kyle Lewis:

Lewis: .368/.456/.585, 7 HRs, 19 RBIs, 24 runs, 28/18 SO/BB Robert: .265/.321/.541, 7 HRs, 17 RBIs, 15 runs, 39/8 SO/BB

Robert has some swing-and-miss issues, and Lewis is riding a ridiculous BABIP. I'll take Robert over the long haul -- he's younger, hits the ball harder and is a gifted defender with plus-plus speed -- but Lewis is a bright spot for the otherwise overmatched Mariners.

Speaking of fun ... the White Sox and Padres are super fun

Both teams received a lot of attention as potential contenders heading into the season, but here's a reminder that the White Sox haven't finished over .500 since 2012 and the Padres since 2010, so no matter the expectations, that's a lot of losing to overcome. But it's happening, and it's happening in a glorious burst of home runs.

The White Sox have won seven of eight, hitting 28 home runs in that span, including two six-homer games and a five-homer game. The Padres are riding a seven-game winning in which they mashed five grand slams in a week, and suddenly "Slam Diego" shirts are flying off the racks. The White Sox rank second and the Padres fourth in home run rate. Both lineups are a nice mixture of exciting young players such as Tatis and Robert and veterans such as Jose Abreu, who just tied a record with six home runs in a three-game series, and Manny Machado, who is hitting much better than in his first season in San Diego. Tune in if you can. As a bonus, when you watch the Padres, you get to see their wonderful, new uniforms.

Coronavirus fallout

The mass outbreak of positive COVID-19 tests on the Marlins and then the Cardinals not only forced those teams to miss at least a week of games but also messed up the schedules for many other teams. That has led to a big disparity in the number of games played among teams so far. The Cardinals have played just 18 games -- 12 fewer than some others. The Marlins have played 23 and the Phillies 24.

What does it mean? A lot of doubleheaders, which means a lot of seven-inning games. The Cardinals have 42 games left with 34 days on the regular-season calendar. The Marlins will have 37 games in 34 days. And so on. That's assuming no further issues. As the Mets-Yankees series that was postponed this past weekend showed us, we don't need a major outbreak for games to be called off. Keep in mind that we're also running out of time to make up games for future postponements -- and imagine the chaos when a doubleheader gets rained out in mid-September.

The bottom line is that not all teams are going to get 60 games. Be prepared for the controversy when a team with 55 games makes the playoffs with a 27-28 record over a team that goes 29-31 in 60 games.

The injury fallout

Perhaps as a result of all the doubleheaders or the rush to get back into action after summer training camp, pitcher injuries are way up. From ESPN Stats & Info, here is the number of pitchers placed on the injured list through the first 31 days of the season:

2020: 98 (not including 20 for coronavirus) 2019: 51 2018: 43

Among those pitchers injured since the return to action and now out or likely out for the season: Stephen Strasburg, Mike Soroka, Shohei Ohtani, Corey Kluber, Yonny Chirinos, Brendan McKay, Roberto Osuna, Tommy Kahnle, Colin Poche, Kirby Yates.

Among those currently on the IL: Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton, Merrill Kelly, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Aaron Bummer, Rich Hill, Homer Bailey, James Paxton, Michael Wacha, A.J. Puk, Joe Musgrove, Jeff Samardzija, Nick Anderson, Nate Pearson, Ken Giles ... and on and on.

This doesn't include top starters such as Noah Syndergaard, Luis Severino and Chris Sale, who went down in spring training. It's a long list.

Strasburg's issue with his hand -- he will undergo surgery Wednesday to alleviate carpal tunnel neuritis in his right hand -- is obviously a huge blow to the defending champions. Strasburg made it through just six innings in two starts. With the Nationals off to a slow start at 11-15 and minus Strasburg, their odds of making the playoffs are just 31% via FanGraphs.

The A's and Rays are for real

This isn't a surprise, but it is perhaps a surprise how they got here: leading their division races over the Astros and Yankees. The A's were going to rely on their big three position players -- Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien and Matt Olson -- and a young rotation. The rotation is 19th in the majors in ERA, and Chris Bassitt has been their best starter, not Frankie Montas, Jesus Luzardo or Sean Manaea. Meanwhile, Semien is hitting .219 with a .275 OBP. Olson is hitting .164 with a .298 OBP, though with nine home runs. Chapman also has nine home runs, but he owns a sub-.300 OBP. The key for the A's? A 1.99 bullpen ERA ... and an easy schedule. The AL West is so bad that they've played only three games against one team with a winning record, going 3-0 against the Astros.

The Rays, meanwhile, have nine pitchers currently on the IL and, amazingly, have just one quality start. Morton, Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell were supposed to be a dominant trio, but Morton has a 5.40 ERA, Glasnow has a 6.00 ERA, and Snell has been brought along slowly, averaging just 3.8 innings per start. On top of that, eight relievers have recorded a save. Kevin Cash must have an offseason gig doing magic shows in Las Vegas.

The Tampa Bay offense, however, has been pretty good, ranking sixth in the majors in runs per game. Even then, you wonder how they're doing it, as Brandon Lowe (.304, nine home runs, 25 RBIs) has been the only standout. No other regular is slugging .500. The Rays just find ways to win, including a 6-1 record against the Yankees.

The Astros are ... maybe mediocre?

Is the Evil Empire crumbling? Verlander has made just one start, Jose Altuve is struggling, Yordan Alvarez is out for the season because of a knee injury, the rookie-filled bullpen has struggled in close games and Bregman is on the IL because of a hamstring issue. The Astros had a couple of early flareups, first with the Dodgers' Joe Kelly after he threw near Bregman's head and mocked Carlos Correa and then when A's center fielder Ramon Laureano had words with Astros coach Alex Cintron, sparking a bench-clearing incident. Kelly became a folk hero, and Cintron was suspended 20 games, and everybody continues to root against Houston.

It has been pretty quiet since the past few weeks, though -- probably what the Astros need. They're 16-13, and they're going to make the playoffs because the bottom three teams in the AL West are terrible. They hope to get Verlander back in September. Zack Greinke has been excellent (2.29 ERA, zero home runs allowed in 35 ⅓ innings). Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have provided rotation depth, and Jose Urquidy should return at some point. The lineup is still fourth in the majors in runs per game. Mediocre? Maybe. But would you want to play them in October with a healthy Verlander?

Sorry, nobody is going to hit .400

In recent years, we've seen Jose Altuve, Joey Votto and Andrew McCutchen hit .400 over a 60-game span, so though somebody hitting .400 this season was a long shot, it wasn't an impossible ask. Charlie Blackmon hit .500 over the Rockies' first 17 games, giving him a little room to play with, but he has hit .256 over his past 11 games and enters the week at .405. DJ LeMahieu leads the majors with a .411 average, though he's currently on the injured list and about to fall off the list of qualified leaders. To show how hard hitting .400 is, say he goes 5-for-20 when he returns. His average falls to .376, and then he has to hit well above .400 the rest of the way. Maybe it is impossible.

Although I'm not giving up on Juan Soto.

Jeff Passan's MLB trade deadline preview: Will any stars actually move? Which teams are sellers?

By Jeff Passan

Almost a year ago, when Major League Baseball's postseason expansion plans first leaked, a league official was trying to sell the idea. It would be good for competitiveness, he said, and would generate revenue for both the league and the players. More playoff teams would bring baseball in line with other sports, he said, and keep fans' interest deeper into the season. All of this, in theory, was true.

But what about the trade deadline?

I asked this question not only as an interested observer in all things transaction but someone who recognizes the value a robust deadline season provides baseball. As the sport has grown more parochial, that has only added intrigue and interest to the game's remaining national elements. And while the regular season and postseason -- the games themselves -- should be the sport's fundamental attraction, the truth is that transactions are the dessert that fans crave every bit as much as the meat and potatoes (or, if you prefer, vegetables) of games. They are what constitute national baseball interest today.

The official had no good answer to the trade-deadline quandary that expanded playoffs cause, of course, because there is no good answer. This is the price MLB and players were willing to pay. And while in some years everything will unfold in a neat, deadline-friendly package -- high-profile free-agents-to-be on non-contending teams -- the consequence of more playoff slots is less deadline action.

The shortened 2020 season has supercharged all of the worst elements of that reality. The deadline is a week from today, and teams have played only a month of games. Almost no team is unequivocally out of contention. All it takes is a good week to go from outside the field to comfortably in. There is the rightful fear that a coronavirus outbreak could alter a team's season at any moment. Most teams haven't shown a desire to spend money during a year in which they say they're losing tens of millions of dollars. Questions about the worth of a pandemic championship, ill-founded though they may be, persist. Compound that with a mediocre free-agent class and you have ... this.

Nevertheless, here baseball stands, the clock ticking toward 4 p.m. ET on Aug. 31, questions begging to be answered.

Is this trade deadline going to be boring?

Uh. Um. Hmmm. How do I answer that?

Just answer it.

Probably.

Why?

For all of the reasons mentioned above and more. Baseball has evolved into a process-oriented sport to the point where a classic trade -- I need this, you need that, let's make a deal, sounds good, deal's done -- is an anachronism. Trades often materialize over months. The framework starts in the winter, goes dormant, picks back up in the summer, or vice versa. It runs through layers of information: not just traditional scouting and hard- core analytics but the in-between area where the two often marry. Deadline war rooms are marketplaces of ideas, with discussions, arguments and passion. If there's an overriding feeling, it's indecision. Every move matters, and the desire to win the trade causes gridlock more often than transaction.

So many of the traditional levers that exist to facilitate teams through that is missing. The information gap in both areas -- scouts can't see players in person, and while there is sharing of minor league data, it's missing context -- is staggering. The potential for a black swan event is very real.

It comes down to this: Teams are profoundly risk averse, and with so many of the risk-mitigating factors absent, the appetite for trades is lost. Teams that need players don't want to gamble on a season they can't predict, and teams that want to dump players are uncomfortable working off old information. That's a bad combination. And?

And the available player pool isn't great shakes either.

Who is the biggest name who could move before the deadline?

One thing hasn't changed from trade deadlines of past: Starting pitching is the greatest commodity. And the possibility that Cleveland could deal Mike Clevinger remains the most intriguing.

Clevinger is currently at the team's alternate site after breaking protocol and going out with teammate Zach Plesac in Chicago. Both are eligible to be recalled. Currently, Cleveland's rotation consists of Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Aaron Civale, Adam Plutko and rookie Triston McKenzie, whose two-hit, 10-strikeout debut earned him another start. Civale will go Monday and Bieber on Tuesday. Plutko, who has struggled in his past two starts, is slotted in for Wednesday. Clevinger could theoretically pitch then.

Trading the 29-year-old Clevinger would epitomize risk. He's an elite starter with at least two more years of team control -- three if the team keeps him on option for 20 or more days. Cleveland also desperately needs a quality outfielder. Over 334 plate appearances this season, its outfielders are hitting a collective .166/.273/.249. That is pitcher-quality offense among a group of position players.

Among the teams that could use a starting pitcher: Atlanta, New York and Colorado in the National League and New York, Toronto, Oakland, Houston and Chicago in the American League. Cleveland won't lack suitors, even after Clevinger's mistake, and president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff aren't shy about trading starters. The team did it the day before last year's deadline with Trevor Bauer.

How Cleveland handles Clevinger in the coming days might provide some insight into its motivations.

Is Clevinger really the biggest name that could move?

Let me start with a warning: There is no indication this player is going anywhere. His team isn't shopping him. There is probably a better chance of him signing a contract extension than being traded. This is more a thought exercise.

But if the Philadelphia Phillies run into a buzz saw this week against Washington and Atlanta ... could they consider dealing catcher J.T. Realmuto?

Heresy, fans in Philadelphia would cry, and with good reason. Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball. He is also a pending free agent, and if the 10-14 Phillies get walloped this week and find themselves behind everyone in the NL except Pittsburgh, knowing six of the eight playoff spots in each league come from the top two teams in every division, could they make the calculation that the return from a Realmuto trade would outweigh the chances of a turnaround plus the draft pick they would reap if he were to leave in free agency?

Well, yeah. They could. Think about the teams that need catching help: Tampa Bay (with the best farm system in baseball), San Diego (second best), Cleveland (lots of good pitching) and others. But the idea of folding up shop, even if they struggle this week, is not just antithetical to their stated plan of contention in 2020. It would enrage fans who want to shout "Sign J.T.!" at their television and devices and want nothing more than a Realmuto extension. While fan sentiment cannot drive decision-making, anyone who says it doesn't factor in is lying.

It also would be quite the about-face. Philadelphia just traded for relievers Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree. Bryce Harper hasn't looked this good since his 2015 MVP season. Rookie Alec Bohm looks like a star. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are an awfully good 1-2 punch atop the rotation. And the NL East ... leaves a lot to be desired.

If the Phillies sold, they'd have plenty of inventory: Realmuto, Workman, shortstop Didi Gregorius, outfielder Jay Bruce, starter Jake Arrieta. But to go from trying to win to full-on sale in less than a week? No team wants to do that, and it's what makes this deadline so confusing.

So who are the sellers?

Definite sellers: Pittsburgh, Boston, Kansas City, Seattle, Los Angeles Angels.

Probable sellers: Detroit, Baltimore, Miami.

Possible sellers: San Francisco, Texas.

That's only 10 of the 30 teams.

Who are the buyers?

Everyone else. Maybe even one or two of the above teams. And it's what makes this market so weird. With a two-to-one buyer-to-seller ratio and supply so limited, one would think prices would be astronomical. A week from the deadline, they aren't. It's an irrational market for an irrational year, and part of what's driving it may be the difference in the leagues.

What do you mean? Look at the standings in the AL -- specifically all the way to the right, the playoff odds column. Admittedly, I'm no fan of playoff odds. Especially this far out from the postseason field being locked in. But right now, six teams in the AL are seen as 96.5%-or-better chances to make the playoffs, and a seventh, the White Sox, are at 89.8%. That would leave only one spot for the remaining eight teams in the league.

Right now, Toronto (13-13) and Baltimore (14-14) are tied for it. The closest team to either is Detroit at 11-15, which is on pace for 68 wins during a typical season ... and still just two games back of a playoff spot. On one hand, a team two games back shouldn't sell. On the other, before winning Friday, the Tigers had lost nine straight, and teams will give them at least something for second baseman Jonathan Schoop or catcher Austin Romine and maybe some others if Detroit is inclined to tear down 2020 and start prepping for '21.

So at the bottom of the AL, there's not much incentive to rejigger a team to chase a playoff spot that would set up a game against the league's best team. And among those teams at 96.5%-plus, there could be a sense of, well, sure, maybe we should try to improve, but in this kind of season, when we're already locked into October? Maybe not.

The NL is the yang to the AL's yin. It's the Dodgers and everybody else. The Cubs have been great. Their games over .500 (+7) is also higher than their run differential (+4), which is typically not a great sign for continued excellence. How screwed up is the NL? The last-place Phillies have higher playoff odds than the three teams ahead of them in the NL East. Same for the fourth-place Brewers and the two teams in front of them. The Diamondbacks are in the cellar in the NL West. Their postseason odds are 54.8%. The Giants are in third (albeit just half a game up). Their odds are 6.9% -- lower than even (gulp) the Red Sox.

Can any NL team actually sell?

The Pirates! But they don't have much to offer. Closer Keone Kela left Friday's game with forearm tightness, two of the scariest words in baseball. Reliever Richard Rodriguez is an interesting under-the-radar guy who will draw interest this year.

But beyond Pittsburgh? Perhaps an overachieving team like Miami seizes this sort of opportunity and tries the ol' buy-and-sell plan that Tampa Bay executes so well. And the Giants are in a position to dictate an awful lot at this deadline. They've got two good starters (Johnny Cueto and Kevin Gausman), a top reliever (Tony Watson) and two veteran infielders raking (Wilmer Flores and Donovan Solano) to the point that a team ravenous for hitting might overpay because each has another year of team control.

The issue is that the Giants keep winning -- six straight and counting -- and as president Farhan Zaidi illustrated last year, he does not like punting on a season that has shown unexpected promise.

What is one trade you would make before the deadline?

I've got two.

I said one.

This is my column. I don't care.

1. Kyle Seager to Atlanta: Neither Johan Camargo nor Austin Riley is proving himself an every-day third baseman. Seattle wants to move Seager, who is hitting .291/.377/.515 and has the seventh-lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters. With Seager, 32, under contract for $18 million next season, Seattle would need to include significant money. Atlanta is not going to overpay, especially with the third-base market practically nonexistent, although there are twice as many DH slots as there were last season, and he'd fit nicely in that role for a team without an elite designated hitter.

2. Andrelton Simmons to Toronto: The market for a player like Simmons, an all-time great defender at shortstop, is every bit as slim, though that won't keep the Angels from trying to find him a landing spot. Most playoff contenders have shortstops, and Simmons' bat doesn't play at DH. But with star shortstop Bo Bichette out for an undetermined amount of time with a knee injury, renting Simmons -- even if the Blue Jays' staff generates ground balls only 40% of the time -- would be a mighty upgrade over the out-of-position Joe Panik or Santiago Espinal.

Would a team like the Orioles, Tigers, Royals or Giants really consider not selling to make a run at the No. 8 spot?

Probably not. And considering each is rebuilding, it's a potential double whammy: Going for it takes present capital and theoretically prevents teams from stocking future capital.

But: Isn't there something to be said for winning? For trying? For potentially meaningful September baseball? For giving fans a reason to follow the standings? Right now, here is where they are in them.

Orioles: tied for eighth playoff spot

Tigers: two games back of eighth playoff spot

Royals: three games back of eighth playoff spot

Giants: in a three-way tie for seventh playoff spot Yes, the incentives in place still discourage teams like the Orioles and Tigers and Royals and Giants from trying to win. Draft order is important. And yet with teams' 2020 records not necessarily determining it -- the March agreement between MLB and the MLB Players Association gave commissioner Rob Manfred the right to modify the order if there were fewer than 81 games played -- it's another checkmark in the just-go-for-it- dammit column.

What should the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers do?

I didn't realize the voice in my head was a coastal elite.

Shut up.

Sorry. The Red Sox should shop everyone on their roster not named Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo. Not a single player who throws a pitch for the Red Sox this season beyond Darwinzon Hernandez will be with Boston beyond 2022. With a mediocre farm system and player development more or less in neutral this season, accelerating the Red Sox's rebuild won't be easy. So whether it's now with free agents-to- be Jackie Bradley Jr. and Kevin Pillar or this winter with Christian Vazquez and Martin Perez (who has the fourth-lowest average exit velocity among starters this season), move 'em. If you can get something for J.D. Martinez, who has another opt-out clause this winter, do it.

The Yankees need starting pitcher. Gerrit Cole is great. Beyond him, Masahiro Tanaka and Jordan Montgomery have been average, James Paxton is hurt and J.A. Happ ineffective. Their lineup and bullpen are great. Are Cole, Tanaka, the bats and the pen really enough to win a World Series?

As for the Dodgers ... I honestly don't know. If they need a bat, they can grab Gavin Lux from their alternate site. Their rotation right now, with Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Dustin May, Ross Stripling and, when need be, Tony Gonsolin, is deep and excellent. Their bullpen was supposed to be questionable, but over 123⅔ innings, it has a 1.82 ERA and generates ground balls more than 50% of the time. The Dodgers have a plus-79 run differential. The next best is Minnesota at plus-40. Los Angeles might not be a perfect team, but it's really, really, really, really good. There is no argument for who's the best in baseball.

Which team has the toughest decision to make before the deadline?

Take your pick of any team that hasn't been very good but could or should be.

The shoulds: Washington, New York Mets, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Arizona, Texas.

The coulds: Toronto, Colorado, San Francisco, Baltimore, Miami.

Take a team like the Nationals, who are coming off a World Series during a season in which they started 19-31. This isn't as much a buy/sell choice for them as it is a buy/buy-a-lot decision. How they go about buying -- how much they buy -- matters deeply.

As much as I'd love to answer this question more definitively, it's not one with concrete decisions. What happens to the standings over the next five days will offer at least a sliver more insight. Just know this: The muddled middle is a weird place to be.

What type of player is most movable in the next week?

One from the American League?

It's only sort of a joke. Kansas City closer Trevor Rosenthal might be the best relief arm available. Teams may get frisky and ask the Royals about Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, Hunter Dozier and others, but the Royals want to win in 2021, and in the soon-to-be-loaded AL Central, that's going to take all the present quality they can muster.

If the Angels are punting only in 2020, they've got a nice array of talent: a utility guy like Tommy La Stella and a veteran catcher such as Jason Castro are always in demand. If they move their controllable pitching -- starters Dylan Bundy and Andrew Heaney, and relievers Cam Bedrosian and Ty Buttrey -- the Angels might not control the trade market, but they'll certainly be at its forefront.

Other names to keep an eye on: Taijuan Walker of Seattle, Miguel Castro and Mychal Givens of Baltimore, Todd Frazier of Texas.

Last time we were talking trade, Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor and were the big names. What the hell happened?

Nothing important or life-altering since February. No, sir.

Non-snarky edition: The Cubs are winning. Bryant isn't going anywhere for now. (Especially because he's hurt.) The Indians are winning. Lindor isn't going anywhere for now.

If the Rockies' spiral into the 2020 abyss continues and leaves them on the outside of the playoffs looking in, the speculation about Arenado's future with the team will only increase -- particularly considering he can opt out of his contract after the 2021 season and wields a full no-trade clause, giving him the ability to dictate where he goes.

Granted, the number of teams willing to take on the remaining six years and $199 million on his deal is surely less than it was six months ago -- and that especially goes for during the season. Financial flexibility is, as Buster Olney wrote, paramount. The best fit for Arenado could be a team needing to take a step and understanding that short of Realmuto or Bauer, there may not be a free agent this winter capable of being that bridge -- unless George Springer and Marcus Semien start hitting.

How do players feel about the possibility of being dealt in the middle of everything going on?

"Did you really just ask me that?" one player on the trade block asked this week.

Uh. Um. Hmmm.

"Not great," he said.

Will anyone actually refuse to report to his new team if traded?

Probably not. However much inconvenience the pandemic is causing, however many little details someone needs to figure out when it comes to moving, almost every major league player traded is going from a bad team to a good one. That's usually enough incentive and motivation for a player to keep playing.

Is Aug. 31 the actual deadline or is it like in past years where the deadline was July 31 and players still got traded after it?

It's a firm deadline. The rule instituted last year outlawing post-deadline trades for players who clear waivers remains in place.

Players must be with an organization by Sept. 15 to be playoff-eligible. So let's say a pitcher is cut Sept. 13 and signs with a new team on the 16th. He can't play in the postseason. But if he signs by the 14th, he's good to go for October.

Any other names on the trade market worth following?

If the trade candidacies of Mike Clevinger and J.T. Realmuto had a baby, it would look like Lance Lynn's current situation.

We're at the point now where you're anthropomorphizing trade possibilities. Lovely.

Like Clevinger, Lynn is under team control. Like Realmuto, he is among the best at what he does. Like Clevinger, there is wide interest in his position and skill. Like Realmuto, his team is on the wrong side of the muddled middle.

The Texas Rangers were in this same position last year. They kept Lynn, aware he's among the best values in baseball at $10 million a year through the 2021 season. Unless Lynn gets hurt, he'll have plenty of suitors this winter too, which does notionally make trading him now a less appetizing prospect. That said, in the offseason, teams will have about the same amount of scouting reports and data to form their opinions on players, so the risk Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels is taking now by engaging on Lynn is equivalent to what he'll be equipped with this winter: not enough.

The market is a fickle thing. Teams win this week and suddenly they want in. Say the Cincinnati Reds drop even deeper into the hole. Do they at least consider trading Bauer? Or Anthony DeSclafani?

It's fun to think about, right? That's why I asked the question of the official all those months ago. Is the trade deadline really the sort of collateral damage baseball can afford to stomach?

This has been a lot of trade talk.

Tell me about it.

Let's finish with something else that stokes national interest: awards. Most teams are about halfway through the season. Who ya got?

NL MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego -- With a tip of the cap to Mike Yastrzemski, Mookie Betts and Bryce Harper, the answer is Tatis, who has been the best player in baseball this season.

AL MVP: Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland -- It feels odd to award someone who has played in only six of his team's 28 games an MVP award. Bieber has been that good.

NL Cy Young: Yu Darvish, SP, Chicago -- Bauer has been the best pitcher in the NL this year, but coronavirus-related postponements have left him with four starts to Darvish's six. Volume especially matters in a year like this, and Darvish is looking every bit like the pitcher the Cubs signed for $126 million expecting to lead them into October.

AL Cy Young: Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland -- 40⅔ innings, 25 hits, five runs, six walks, 65 strikeouts, 1.11 ERA, 5-0 record. The stuff backs up the numbers too.

NL Rookie of the Year: Jake Cronenworth, UT, San Diego -- Dustin May has been really good. Bohm might be the favorite. Gonsolin still hasn't given up a run for the Dodgers. But Cronenworth, acquired alongside Tommy Pham for Hunter Renfroe and prospect Xavier Edwards, has been a revelation who plays all four infield positions and is hitting .347/.410/.627. AL Rookie of the Year: Kyle Lewis, OF, Seattle -- Apologies to Luis Robert, who has been everything the White Sox hoped, and Randy Dobnak, who has been more than the Twins could've imagined, but Lewis leads the AL with a .368 batting average, walks at an impressive clip, strikes out less than league average and plays center field. Quick shoutout to the rookie class of ridiculous relievers: Cleveland's James Karinchak, Kansas City's Josh Staumont, Toronto's Jordan Romano and Chicago's Matt Foster. Maybe in another year. Not this one.