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The Impacts of the Universal Two-Child Policy on China's Population

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The Impacts of the Universal Two-Child Policy on China's Population China Pop. & Dev. Studies (2017) 1 (1 ): 1 - 18 1 The Impacts of the Universal Two-Child Policy on China's Population Zhenwu ZHAI1 , Long LI2 and Jiaju CHEN2 Abstract: The universal two-child policy, implemented in October, 2015, is considered to be the most significant adjustment in the history of China' s family planning program. Using data from the 2014 national population sampling survey, this paper employs a population group-component calculation and projection method to compute the number of target population in 2016 and then to estimate the number of extra births that are likely to result from implementation of the universal two-child policy. The results show that the total number of extra births is estimated to be approximately 17. 2 million in the years 2017 - 2021, with the number of extra births per year ranging from approximately 1. 6 to 4. 7 million. This will lead to a dramatic shift in China's TFR from an estimated 1. 6 in 2016 to one approaching the replacement level, and then dropping to a projected 1. 7. With the universal two-child policy in place, China' s total population will grow to about 1. 45 billion around 2028 and then gradually begin shrioking. The labor force will become larger under the universal two-child policy than it would if the stricter birth control policy were maintained, with an estimated 50 million additional people aged 15 - 59 in 2050. With implementation of China's new fertility policy, an estimated 34% of the population will be over 60 years of age in 2050, almost three percentage points lower than the level if the former fertility policy were continued. Key words: Universal Two-Child Policy • Target Population • Extra Births . Population Trends . Population Group-component Calculation and Projection Method The birth control policy that China has pursued from the 1970s has undoubtedly exerted a tremendous influence on China's demographic development. China's birth control policy decisions have attracted the attention of the whole world, especially since the one-child policy was introduced in the early 1980s (Editorial Department of Population Research 2010). In October, 2015, the Fifth Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee of the CPC announced the implementation of the universal two-child policy, considered to be the most significant adjustment in the history of China' s family planning program (Liu and Tang 2015). The universal two-child policy is based on the Center for Population and Development Studies at the Remnin University of China, Beijing, China. Email: [email protected] 2 Center for Population and Development Studies at the Renmin University of China, Beijing, China. 2 China Pop. & Dev. Studies (2017) 1 (1) : 1 -18 two-child policy introduced in November, 2013, that allowed only-child parents to have two children if either of the parents came from an only-child farnily. Under the universal two-child policy, no couples are restricted to having one child only, and this change will have a profound impact on China' s demographic trajectory in the long term (Zhai and Li 2014). The number of births that are direct1y affected by the new fertility policy are of major concern because changes in the number of births will affect China' s population size and population structure in the years to come. In this paper, we aim to estimate the number of extra births under the new fertility policy in comparison to the number of births that would have occurred in a scenario that retained China' s previous, stricter birth control policy. We compute the number of target population in 2016 direct1y affected by the universal two-child policy, and then examine the potential demographic impacts of the universal two-child policy, comparing these impacts with a scenario that kept the previous, stricter birth control policy in place. 1 Births under the Universal Two-child Policy An age-specific breakdown of the target population subject to the universal two­ child policy, the age pattern of that target population wanting a second child, as weIl as birth time distribution of second children are three important parameters when estimating the number of births under China's new fertility policy. This paper employs a population group-component calculation and projection method that involves the following steps: (1) We use survey data first to deduct members of the target population eligible to have a second child prior to implementation of the universal two-child policy and then calculate reasonably accurate estimates of age-specific target populations after implementation of the new policy; (2) Having multiplied the size of target population in the policy adjustment year (i. e. , the year in which the new universal two-child policy went into effect) by the age-specific proportions of the target population that wants a second child, we then sum up the age­ specific results to estimate the total number of extra births that will occur in China because of the implementation of the new fertility policy; (3) Based on the surveyed time arrangements for the target population giving birth to second children, we obtained the number of additional births occurring each year as a result of the universal two-child policy; (4) Using projections for the number of annual births that would occur in China if the stricter birth control policy remained in place, we then add the number of additional annual births to get the number of annual births after the adjustment of the fertility policy; and (5) Based on China's projected total fertility rate (TFR) , we use the cohort­ component method to make population projections and compare China' s population trends from 2016 to 2050 under the two different fertility policy schemes. There are other methods that researchers can use to compute the number of births after implementing the universal two-child policy (Wang 2016). However, not only do a large number of intermediate parameters usually need to be set when employing these methods, the use of unreasonable or China Pop. & Dev. Studies (2017) 1 CI) : 1 -18 3 even inaccurate intermediate parameters rnay lead to significant errors. The population group-component calculation and projection method, in contrast , is direct and reliable in its use of data sources , as weH as being clear and straightforward in its logical process. Because it does not depend on the use of numerous indirect techniques, we believe a higher quality of estirnation is ensured. 1.1 Data In this paper, we relied primarilyon data from the I %0 population sampling survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2014 to carry out our calculations and projections. In addition to being authoritative, the 2014 national population sampling survey data has two advantages that were behind our decision to use this data source. Firstly, the length of the calculation and projection period used to obtain the 2014 national population sampling survey data is more compressed than that of the period used to obtain other data in China, and this is advantageous. This is the nationwide, specialized, large-scale sampling survey that currently has shortest interval between the year the survey is conducted and the year the policy is adjusted (2016). Because compression of the length of the calculation and projection period usually leads to areduction in bias, use of the 2014 national population sampling survey data to calculate the size of target population subject to the universal two-child policy should result, theoreticaHy, in estimates with minimal bias. Secondly, the 2014 national population sampling survey data provides more relevant information than other data sources in China. It remains the only national population sampling survey data in China with information on the impact of birth control policies on couples at child-bearing age and the childbearing plans of these couples (Li et al. 2016) , making it a valuable reference for this paper. 1. 2 Target Population under the Universal Two-child Policy The target population under the universal two-child policy can be defined as married women of child-bearing age (between the ages of 15 and 49 years) in the policy adjustrnent year who have only one child and were restricted from having a second child by China's previous stricter birth control policy. The number as weH as the age structure of the women having one child during their child-bearing years provided by the 1%0 population sampling survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2014 can be used as basic data to compute the target population subject to the universal two-child policy. An estimate based on data from the 2014 sampling survey shows that in 2014 China had approximately 143.5 million woman who were aged 15 -49 and had one child. Beginning with the number and age structure of these women of child-bearing age who had one child, we first deducted the number of women aged 15 - 49 who were eligible earlier to have a second child because of policy adjustments that loosened the strict one-child policy without replacing it. These adjustments were: first, the "one-and-a-half-child" (yihaiban) policy and the limited two-child policy aimed at rural couples in the majority of provinces; 4 China Pop. & Dev. Studies (2017) 1 (1) : 1 -18 and, second, the nationwide two-child policy applied to couples of whom one or both were only children (dandulianghai or shuangdulianghai). This allowed us to obtain the age-specific size of the target population under the universal two-child policy scenario in 2014, and to project from 2014 data to estimate target population size in the policy adjustment year (2016). In addition, this paper also takes into account other deductions that impact our estimates, such as underreporting caused by the unauthorized births, divorce and widowhood, as weIl as special situations that allow couples who were experiencing significant hardship to have a second child (e.
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