Cedric Richmond Is Leading Joseph Cao by Seventeen Points

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Cedric Richmond Is Leading Joseph Cao by Seventeen Points

October 25, 2010 To: Interested Parties Fr: John Anzalone / Zac McCrary Re: Summary of General Election Polling Results in Louisiana CD-02 Roughly one week from Election Day, Democrat Cedric Richmond is leading Republican incumbent Congressman Joseph Cao by seventeen points (49% Richmond / 32% Cao). In the past month, Richmond’s lead has grown while Cao’s share of the vote has decreased – indicating the momentum is with Richmond. Beyond Richmond’s existing double-digit lead, the 2nd District is poised to break strongly for Democrats up and down the 2010 ballot. With the late resources necessary to finish funding a robust media budget and grassroots field program, Cedric Richmond is extremely well positioned to become the district’s next member of Congress. Cedric Richmond is leading Joseph Cao by seventeen points. • Richmond leads Cao 49% to 32, with 4% combined for independent candidates Marquize and Radosta. Even if Cao were to secure all the undecided votes (15%), he would still trail Richmond. • Richmond’s margin over Cao has increased from 10 points in September to 17 points one week before the election. Clearly, the momentum is with Richmond as Election Day approaches. The 2nd District overwhelmingly prefers Democratic candidates – providing additional advantages to a Richmond campaign already well-ahead of Cao. • Roughly two of three 2nd District voters consider themselves Democrats (66%), compared to only 19% who identify themselves as Republicans – well over a 3:1 Democratic advantage. • Specifically in races for U.S. Congress, 62% indicate they are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate – compared to only 25% who are likely to vote for a Republican. • With Charlie Melancon overwhelmingly leading David Vitter among 2nd District voters in the U.S. Senate race (62% Melancon / 26% Vitter), the top of the 2010 ticket will also benefit the Richmond campaign. Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=400 live telephone interviews with likely 2010 General Election voters in LA CD-02. Interviews were conducted between October 20-21, 2010. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.9% with a 95% confidence level. .

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