Garfinkel 1 Will Punctuated Equilibrium Theory Help Us Explain
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Garfinkel 1 Will Punctuated Equilibrium Theory Help us Explain the Developments Surrounding COVID-19 and Environmental Policy? by Adam Harrison Garfinkel A thesis submitted to the Faculty of the College of Arts and Sciences of the University of Colorado in partial fulfilment of the requirements necessary to attain an honors distinction upon graduation Department of Political Science April 5, 2021 Committee Members: Dr. Nancy Billica, Department of Political Science Dr. Janet Donavan, Department of Political Science Dr. Alison Hatch, Departments of Sociology and Women & Gender Studies Garfinkel 2 Garfinkel, Adam Harrison (B.A., Political Science) Will Punctuated Equilibrium Theory Help us Explain the Developments Surrounding COVID-19 and Environmental Policy? Thesis Directed by Dr. Nancy Billica Abstract: This project is titled, “Will Punctuated Equilibrium Theory Help us Explain the Developments Surrounding COVID-19 and Environmental Policy?”. As the title suggests, the research question will be regarding the effects of COVID-19 on the punctuated equilibrium theory, specifically relating to environmental policy in the United States of America. Punctuated equilibrium theory suggests that in both American and specific foreign governments, the policies that get created and passed tend to be rather steady and unchanging, until a major event occurs, which disrupts the normally homogenous system in a large way. An example where we have seen this theory hold true in the past was in the aftermath of 9/11, when the United States Government passed a series of new laws regarding air flight safety and other anti-terrorism acts, something that the country had not seen in policy until that point. This project will test this theory in the modern context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and seek to understand whether or not environmental policy has experienced a large shift after the major event that is the COVID-19 pandemic. This project is important because of the new nature of the COVID-19 pandemic. The world knows so little about what has happened so far and what will happen in the future from a policy perspective in response to the pandemic, so trying to predict the future of environmental policy has become very difficult. If this project can conclude that Punctuated Equilibrium Theory is in fact relevant for the COVID-19 pandemic, then this information could prove useful in predicting the United States Governments’ future response to major events, as well as help describe the current status of environmental policy in the United States. This information could then also potentially be used to help adjust new and future environmental policy, so that it best serves the American people and their future interests. Garfinkel 3 CONTENTS: CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................6 2. LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................10 3. RESEARCH DESIGN SECTION ..........................................................24 4. BACKGROUND INFORMATION REGARDING POLICY TOPICS.29 5. COVID-19 FACTORS............................................................................56 6. CASE STUDY #1 ...................................................................................61 7. CASE STUDY #2 ...................................................................................75 8. LARGER DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION .........................................89 BIBLIOGRAPHY……………………..…………………………………………. .. 101 APPENDIX A. INTERVIEW RECRUITMENT INFORMATION ..............................106 B. INTERVIEW QUESTIONS .................................................................107 Garfinkel 4 FIGURES Figure 4.1 Most Prevalent Alternative Energy Source by State: 2007 vs. 2017……….32 4.2 How a Hydroelectric Dam Works…………………………………………..34 4.3 An Example of Offshore Wind Turbines…………………………………....35 4.4 A Variety of Biomass Sources………………………………………………37 4.5 An Example of Private Solar Energy………………………………………..38 4.6 State Government Trifectas Vs. Carbon Emissions…………………………40 4.7. Example of Electric Vehicle Infrastructure…………………………………42 4.8 How the Cap-and-Trade System Ideally Works…………………………….43 4.9 Areas With the Most and Least Popular Transportation Systems…………..45 4.10 Fracking and Venting Regulations by State………………………………...47 4.11 The Delicate Nature of Fracking: is it Occurring too Close to the Water Supply?...48 4.12 The Deepwater Horizon Disaster: a resource Conservation Nightmare…….51 4.13 The Water recycling Process………………………………………………..53 5.1 Pre- and Post-COVID-19 Numbers of Environmental Policy in Each State..58 Garfinkel 5 TABLES Table 6.1 Case Study #1 Environmental Bills Pre and Post Pandemic ........................73 6.2 Case Study #1 Environmental Bills Versus COVID-19 Bills……………...74 7.1 Case Study #2 Environmental Bills Pre and Post Pandemic……………….87 7.2 Case Study #2 Environmental Bills Versus COVID-19 Bills……………...88 Garfinkel 6 Chapter 1: Introduction There were not many things that all 50 states were the same in, or even agreed on in 2020. Political factors, cultural differences, and geographic location all play a role in creating these not so uncommon differences between states. One thing that is true for all 50 states, however, is that not a single one experienced an increase in the amount of environmental legislation introduced between March 11, 2020 and December 31, 2020, compared to their own legislature’s number of introductions exactly one year prior. Not a single one. Not only that, but there were 3 state legislatures which did not even introduce a single environmental policy in that time span. Nearly everyone who is up to date with modern policy making knows that the environment has been an increasingly pertinent issue amongst legislatures across the world. This scenario raises the simple question, why is this occurring? The question that this paper seeks to answer is: what has caused environmental policy to seemingly go by the wayside during the timeframe between March 11, 2020, and December 31, 2020? There could be multiple explanations for this occurrence, and the most obvious place to begin to look is the COVID-19 pandemic, which began on March 11, 2020, when the World Health Organization declared it a global pandemic. The novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, is an easily spread, flu-like disease, which is currently a leading cause of death in the United States (Cox, 2021). The question of how are COVID-19 and environmental policy related is then raised. They are seemingly unrelated at surface level, but when looked at in the context of the punctuated equilibrium theory, the connections between the two begin to appear. The punctuated equilibrium theory can be defined as: after major disruptions to society, we expect a quick and vast alteration in which policies are introduced, as well as which policies are passed throughout all levels of government (Baumgartner and Jones, 2018). If this theory were to be occurring in Garfinkel 7 the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, legislators would be introducing and passing a plethora of bills related to mitigating the effects of the pandemic (such as healthcare related legislation or unemployment benefit related legislation) and policy areas not related to the pandemic including environmental policy would be receiving little to no attention. Then, sometime after the end of the pandemic, both environmental and COVID-19 related policies would return to their normal levels of introduction. Another explanation for the noticeable decrease in introduction of state-level environmental policy could be the usual factors which have always impacted environmental policy since its creation as an issue area. These could include political factors, geographic location factors, cultural factors, and other factors which are relevant when discussing state-level policy. It is also possible that a combination of these normal factors and the punctuated equilibrium are occurring, or that it is another explanation all together. This paper attempts to address this irregular policy occurrence by following the plan of the below outline: Chapter 1: Introduction- This section outlines the overarching themes of the project while introducing the main question. Chapter 2: Literature Review- This chapter addresses the literature that already exists within the areas of environmental policy, state-level policy in general, and the punctuated equilibrium theory. Due to the recent nature of the introduction of the COVID-19 pandemic, this chapter is mostly used as background information to set the stage for the following chapters. Chapter 3: Research Design- Chapter 3 outlines the way in which data for this project will be gathered, introduces the 5 hypotheses integral to this completion of this project, and describes the methods that will be used to attempt to answer these hypotheses. Garfinkel 8 Chapter 4: Key Background Information Regarding Five Important Environmental Policy Topics- This chapter describes the five policy areas within the broader term ‘environmental policy’ this project will focus on. The purpose of this chapter is to provide the reader background into why these specific categories were chosen to represent the category of environmental policy, why these policy areas are important for environmental health, and to describe what the reader can expect the data in the following chapters to be based on. Chapter 5: COVID-19 Factors- Chapter 5 introduces how COVID-19 has impacted various state legislatures’ environmental policy,