Atlantic Coast Conference
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Atlantic Coast Conference ost power struggles follow a fairly predictable trajectory: erating conference opponents by 39 points per game; the only M king is deposed, successors battle to fill the vacuum, new ostensible challenger, Clemson, was left scattered in tiny pieces king emerges from the contenders, etc., repeat as necessary. You across its own field in a 51-14 massacre that wasn’t even that know, you watch Game of Thrones. Only in the ACC version, close. Before the BCS nail-biter against Auburn, only one other the new king turns out to be the same as the old king, resur- opponent (Boston College, a 48-34 victim in September) had rected and omnipotent as ever. In retrospect, Florida State’s re- come within four touchdowns of FSU. In our F/+ ratings, the ascension after a decade in the wilderness seems inevitable— Seminoles ranked No. 1 nationally on defense, No. 2 on offense who else in the conference has the resources, the personnel, the and No. 1 overall by an historic margin: dating back to 2005, pedigree? In the end, of course it’s Florida State. the first year in the F/+ database, the Seminoles’ final score But it’s not as if the rest of the league didn’t have its shot at (+49.2%) is the fourth-best on record, behind only Alabama in the Seminoles’ old crown. It just failed, repeatedly, to produce 2011-12 and Florida in 2008. Meanwhile, the only other ACC a worthy successor. From 2001-11, as FSU trudged through the outfit that managed to crack the top 25 was Clemson, at No. 16. decline of the Bowden era and the awkward transition to Jimbo The gap in 2014 may be even wider. Across the conference, Fisher, six different schools claimed at least one ACC champi- 11 teams will be breaking in new starters at quarterback, while onship, none of whom made any pretense to national relevance Florida State plans to trot out the reigning Heisman winner. In- outside of the conference. In the same span, the ACC champion cluding Jameis Winston, FSU has more players who arrived on went 1-10 in BCS bowls, culminating in a series of blowouts campus with a five-star rating from the major recruiting sites that included in the most lopsided beating in BCS history in (11) than the rest of the conference combined, just one reflec- the 2012 Orange Bowl. In those years the conference earned a tion of its ongoing dominance in stockpiling talent. Like last single top-10 finish in the AP poll. year, the question where the ACC is concerned isn’t so much Once the Seminole juggernaut was back up and running un- the outcome at the top, but the margin. In that respect, the Semi- der Fisher, there wasn’t even a pretender to stand in its way. noles are playing against history: no FBS program has pulled The 2012 Noles ran roughshod, losing once in ACC play—by off back-to-back undefeated seasons since Nebraska in 1994- one point—en route to an otherwise uncontested title. (The 95. In the BCS era, a handful of defending champions came Coastal Division contenders were so weak that not just one but close—Miami in 2001-02, USC in 2004-05, Florida in 2008- two of them, Miami and North Carolina, turned down a shot 09—only to watch the repeat slip away at the last moment. The at FSU in the championship game in favor of a self-imposed arrival of a playoff format relieves some of the pressure of run- postseason ban to appease NCAA investigators; the honor fell ning the table, if only slightly, but for projection purposes we instead to 6-6 Georgia Tech, which was promptly trounced.) can take the ‘Noles’ presence in the “final four” for granted. In 2013, Florida State unleashed maximum destruction, oblit- From there, they’re playing for posterity. ATLANTIC DIVISION No. 1 Florida State Seminoles (12-0, 8-0) 2013: 14-0 (8-0) / F/+ #1 / FEI #1 / S&P+ #1 / Program F/+: #6 2013 Five Factors 2013 Offense 2013 Defense Off Success Rate+ 130.4 2 Offensive F/+ 21.5% 3 Defensive F/+ 25.7% 1 Efficiency Def Success Rate+ 128.3 3 Offensive FEI 0.499 12 Defensive FEI -0.653 5 Total Efficiency 258.7 1 Offensive S&P+ 148.4 1 Defensive S&P+ 161.9 1 Off IsoPPP+ 116.9 6 Rushing S&P+ 121.9 14 Rushing S&P+ 138.1 4 Explosiveness Def IsoPPP+ 118.0 4 Passing S&P+ 156.7 1 Passing S&P+ 142.4 4 Total Explosiveness 234.9 1 Standard Downs S&P+ 130.9 4 Standard Downs S&P+ 147.2 2 Field Position Field Pos. Adv. (FPA) 0.562 2 Passing Downs S&P+ 165.7 1 Passing Downs S&P+ 125.3 12 Off Red Zone S&P+ 139.0 2 2013 Special Teams Special Teams F/+ 2.0% 27 Finishing Drives Def Red Zone S&P+ 117.6 17 2014 Projections SOS Rk 56 Total Red Zone Rating 256.6 3 Ret. Starters: 8 OFF, 5 DEF Offensive F/+ 14.5% 4 Turnover Margin +17.0 2 Proj. F/+ 32.5% 1 Defensive F/+ 17.9% 1 Turnovers Exp. TO Margin +6.1 23 Mean Wins / Conf Wins 11.6 / 7.8 Conf. / Div. Title Odds 86.0% / 89.6% Difference +10.9 5 1 2 ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE Maybe it would be more constructive at this point to exam- guarantee Williams will remain the top running back on his ine the ways in which FSU is not an irresistible force destined own team. to reduce every obstacle in its path to rubble. It will certainly On the other hand, the heavy attrition outlined above is much be more succinct. Let’s start with the defense, which lost six less concerning in context. Losses notwithstanding, FSU is still starters—four of them NFL draft picks—including last year’s projected by both F/+ and S&P+ to repeat as the No. 1 overall leading tackler, linebacker Telvin Smith, and All-Americans defense in the nation. And why not? Last year’s edition was Timmy Jernigan and Lamarcus Joyner. The projected starting forced to replace seven defensive starters from a top-five de- lineup on that side of the ball doesn’t feature a single senior. fense in 2012, and outperformed its predecessor with room to Surely Jernigan’s muscle will be missed in the middle of the spare. Among the players we know about, juniors Mario Ed- defensive line? Who can replace Joyner’s Polamaluvian range wards Jr. and Eddie Goldman on the defensive line and P.J. Wil- and versatility in the secondary? Who takes the place of wide liams and Ronald Darby in the secondary are all on track for an receiver Kelvin Benjamin, a truly freakish talent even by Flor- early exit next spring, having firmly established themselves in ida State standards? Raw as he may have been, Benjamin was the starting lineup as sophomores; were he eligible, sophomore arguably the best receiver in the nation over the last six weeks free safety Jalen Ramsey would join that group after starting of the season, and he was the only Seminole drafted in the every game as a true freshman. Among the new faces—most first round in April. And perish the thought, but what if Jameis notably sophomore defensive ends Chris Casher and DeMar- Winston is injured, or suspended, or otherwise indisposed— cus Walker, sophomore strong safety Nate Andrews and a pack even briefly—against this year’s tougher schedule? The top of second- and third-year linebackers—there is every reason to backup in 2013, Jacob Coker, transferred to Alabama, leaving believe they’ll follow the same track. Heck, even the special the nondescript sophomore Sean Maguire as the Seminoles’ teams are loaded: Kicker Roberto Aguayo (21-of-22 on field safety net. goals) was a consensus All-American as a redshirt freshman, So yes, if catastrophe strikes, the defending champs are while true freshman Levonte “Kermit” Whitfield took a pair potentially vulnerable. Otherwise, the deck is pretty well of kickoffs back for touchdowns en route to the best kick-re- stacked. The ace, of course, is Winston, whose bona fides are turn average in the nation. (The second of those touchdowns well established. Aside from the most decorated quarterback you’ll recall from the fourth quarter of the BCS Championship in college football, though, the offense returns four other All- Game.) Punting was a weak spot last year (116th in punt effi- ACC picks (wide receiver Rashad Greene, tight end Nick ciency), but the Seminoles only had 30 non-garbage time punts O’Leary, tackle Cameron Erving and guard Tre’ Jackson), all on the season, fewest of any team in the nation. of whom are arguably the best in the nation at their respective Recent history tells us that no road to a repeat is that smooth, positions entering their third year as full-time starters. Two that faint cracks will appear in the surface ahead of the inevi- other starters up front, Bobby Hart and Josue Matias, have 51 table lapse. Fine. But as for the what, when and where, and combined starts between them. The new tailback, converted especially the who, there are no answers in sight. safety Karlos Williams, has yet to start a game at either po- sition, but looked so good last year in a part-time role (730 2015 Draft Prospects: DE Mario Edwards Jr.* (1), OT Cam- yards, 8.0 yards per carry, 7.5 highlight yards per opportu- eron Erving (1), QB Jameis Winston* (1), TE Nick O’Leary nity, 11 TD) that he’s already the top senior running back on (1-2), CB P.J.