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Modelling Transport and Dispersion of Anthropogenic Radioactivity in the Arctic Ocean

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Modelling Transport and Dispersion of Anthropogenic Radioactivity in the Arctic Ocean IAEA-SM-354/91 XA9951221 MODELLING TRANSPORT AND DISPERSION OF ANTHROPOGENIC RADIOACTIVITY IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN I.H. HARMS Inslilul für Meereskunde, Universität Hamburg Troplowiuslrassc 7, 22529 Hamburg Germany MJ. KARCHER.H. NIES Bundesamt für Seeschiffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH) Dernhardt-Nochl-Slrasse 78, 2O35'J Hamburg, Germany D. DET1ILEFF GEOMAR, Forschuiigszcnlrum für marine Geowissenschaften Wischhofsirassc 1-3, 24148 Kiel, Germany During the last years, research in the Arctic Ocean has increased considerably. Recent topics arc focused on climate research such as sea ice variability, water mass transformation and deep water production but also on transport of contaminants like e.g. radionuclides In 1994, a joint project was raised in Germany in order to investigate the dispersion of anthropogenic radioactivity in the Arctic Ocean. The major background for this project was the dumping of radioactive waste in the Kara Sea and the assessment of a potential contamination of Arctic Seas and adjacent Nordic Seas (Greenland Sea, Norwegian Sea and Icelandic Sea). Coupled ice-ocean models on different spatial scales were applied to study the transit times and major pathways for radionuclidc transport in the Arctic Ocean. The model simulations were carried out on three different spatial scales: • A large scale general circulation model covers the whole Arctic Ocean including parts of the Nordic Seas, • two regional scale models cover the shelves of the Barents and Kara Seas • and local scale models were used to simulate the near field like bays and fjords where radioactive waste dumping took place. These three-dimensional, baroclinic circulation models were used to simulate the seasonally varying circulation, stratification, ice formation and ice drift. The obtained climatológica! circulation patterns served as forcing functions for transport modelling of contaminants in water and sea ice. The tracer dispersion was simulated with Eulerian transport algorithms for dissolved matter, which were based on the advection-diffusion transport equation. Two main sources for radioactivity in the Arctic Ocean were studied in more detail. • Inflowing Atlantic Water Masses which carry the Sellafield signal from western Europe towards the Arctic and • the dumping sites tor radioactive wastes along the east coast of Novaya Senilya in the Kara Sea. The Scllaiield simulation was carried out for two reasons: On one hand it is an ideal case for model validation because the signal has been measured intensively during the last decades. On ' current affiliation: Allrcd-Wegencr-Institui ñix Polar- und Mccrcsforschuiig (AWf). Cohiinbusstrasse 27568 Bremerhaven. Germany 179 the other hand it is one of the most important sources for the radioactive contamination of the Arctic Ocean since the 1970's, The dump site scenarios assumed a leakage at dumped objects in the Kara Sea, In order to assess the (rather unrealistic) 'worst case', we first applied an instantaneous release in which the total radioactive inventory of dumped l37Cs (lPBq) was released more or less instantaneously. The second focus was on gradual release scenarios in which continuous release rates of the order of 1 TBq/y were applied. Both, the Sellafield and the dump site scenarios have the advantage to represent a point source that can be prescribed rather easily in a numerical model grid This is not the case with global fallout and the Chernobyl accident which makes these sources difficult to simulate. Whereas the dump site scenarios were purely hypothetical, the reprocessing plant scenarios followed realistic release rates and were therefore validated. The dispersion simulations concentrated on'nCs because this radionudidc represents a major fraction of the reprocessing plant discharges and the dump site inventories. This radionudidc is moreover highly soluble in the water and can be regarded as a 'dissolved' tracer. The Sellalield simulation reproduced the observed levels, pathways and transit times in surface waters very well. Minor differences in the travel time of 1 or 2 years can be attributed tu the missing interannual variability of the oceanic circulation (climatological forcing) Other sources for differences are the missing bomb fallout and the missing inflow of l37Cs from the Chernobyl accident. Simulated peak concentrations of Cs reach the Barents Sea approx. 6 years after release, showing levels around 30-60 Bq/m in the southern and eastern parts. The major fraction flows into the northern Kara Sea between Franz-Josef-Land and Novaya Scmlya, a minor fraction crosses the Kara Sea entering through the Kara Strait. In the eastern Barents Sea and the northern Kara Sea, strong vertical mixing leads to an input of Cs into deeper water masses, feeding the Atlantic Water layer at intermediate depths. At the surface, the model produced peak concentrations between 1985 and 1990 of 40 - )5 Bq/m3. The dump site scenarios revealed that a surface water contamination needs about 10 years from the dump sites to reach Fram Strait. Contaminants mixed down to the bottom of the shelf showed considerable longer residence times in the Arctic Ocean, in the order of decades. A significant contamination of the Kara Sea and adjacent oceans is very unlikely. In particular the gradual release scenarios showed radioactive concentrations two or three orders of magnitude lower than the maximum Sellafield signal had in 1985. Even in a worst case scenario, the concentrations in the Kara Sea were in the range of today background values, originating from Sellafield. The transport of radioactivity by sea ice seems to be likely. The results indicated the possibility of an export of contaminated sediment from the Kara Sea into the central Arctic and subsequently through Fram Strait into the Greenland and Icelandic Seas. Observed buoy drifts and simulated trajectories confirm that the Arctic Transpolar Ice Drift is by far the shortest and probably also the most cffeciive pathway for pollutant dispersion from the Arctic Ocean to the adjacent Nordic Seas. The contaminated paniculate matter will be released due to ice melt 2-3 years after leaving the Kara Sea. Quantitatively however, the pollutant transport by sea ice sediments seems to play a minor role. 180.
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