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Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized VIETNAM 2035 i Vietnam 2035 VIETNAM 2035 iii Vietnam 2035 Toward Prosperity, Creativity, Equity, and Democracy World Bank Group Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam © 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and The Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 19 18 17 16 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank and the Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam. The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily refl ect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent, or those of the Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam (MPI) and the Government of Vietnam. The World Bank and MPI do not guarantee the accu- racy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank or MPI concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank and/or The Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam, all of which are specifi cally reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creative- commons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank and Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam. 2016. Vietnam 2035: Toward Prosperity, Creativity, Equity, and Democracy. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0824-1. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and/or The Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam (MPI) and should not be considered an offi cial World Bank/MPI translation. The World Bank and/or The Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. 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If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, fi gures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank .org. ISBN (print): 978-1-4648-0824-1 ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-0825-8 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0824-1 Cover art: Vietnamese bronze Ngọc Lũ drum: © Doremon 360, licensed under the Creative Commons license, version 3.0. Three photographs at the bottom: © Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam. Used with permission; further permission required for reuse. Cover design: Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam and Bill Pragluski, Critical Stages, LLC. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested. The State shall guarantee and promote the People’s right to mastery; to recognize, respect, protect, and guarantee human rights and citi- zens’ rights; and to pursue the goal of a prosperous people and a strong, democratic, equitable, and civilized country, in which all peo- ple enjoy an abundant, free, and happy life and are given conditions for their comprehensive development. —Article 3 of the 2013 Constitution of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam Contents Foreword . xvii Preface and Acknowledgments . .xix Executive Summary . xxv Abbreviations . xxxiii Part I Overview Vietnam 2035: Toward Prosperity, Creativity, Equity, and Democracy . 1 Introduction . 3 Pillar 1 Economic Prosperity with Environmental Sustainability . 17 Pillar 2 Equity and Social Inclusion . 39 Pillar 3 A Capable and Accountable State . 53 Summary and Conclusions . 67 Part II Background Chapters 1 Thirty Years of Renovation and Vietnam’s Aspirations for 2035 . 77 Main Messages . 77 Ðổi Mới: Motivation, Process, and Results . 78 Future Opportunities and Challenges . 91 Vietnam’s Aspirations for 2035 . 99 Notes . 104 References . 105 2 Enabling Economic Modernization and Private Sector Development . 109 Main Messages . 109 Vietnam’s Growth and Economic Modernization Record . 111 Opportunities, Risks, and Challenges for Future Growth . 119 VIETNAM 2035 vii viii VIETNAM 2035 Promoting Economic Modernization and Enhancing Competitiveness of the Private Sector . 133 Annex 2A Empirical Relationship among Political Connection, Firms’ Access to Credit, and Profi tability . 157 Annex 2B Growth Accounting to Identify Sources of Growth . 161 Notes . 163 References . 165 3 Building National Innovation Capacity . .169 Main Messages . 169 Innovation Capacity: Where Is Vietnam Today? . 172 Innovation: The Demand (or Firm) Side . 177 Innovation: The Supply Side . 186 By Way of Conclusion: Moving Toward an Innovation-Led Economy . 198 Notes . 199 References . 200 4 Managing Urbanization for Greater Economic Effi ciency . 203 Main Messages . 203 Urbanization and Economic Transformation in Vietnam . 206 Vietnam’s Urbanization in 3D: Density, Distance, and Division . 209 Causes of Low and Stagnant Density, Rising Distance, and Persistent Division . 221 Institutions and Infrastructure: Cities to Lead Vietnam’s Transformation into a Modern Industrialized Nation . 228 Annex 4A Haiphong City: The Challenges and Promises of a Gateway in Transition . 238 Notes . 240 References . 240 5 Achieving Sustainable and Climate-Resilient Growth . 243 Main Messages . 243 Environmental Sustainability: A Key to Growth and Development . 245 Environmental Challenges in Vietnam Today and in the Future . 248 Underlying Causes and Priority Challenges . 262 Growing Sustainably Toward 2035: The Road Forward . 265 Notes . 276 References . 277 6 Promoting Equity and Social Inclusion . .281 Main Messages . 281 The Situation of Social Inclusion in Vietnam . 283 The Unfi nished Agenda: Marginalized Groups and Equality of Opportunity . 287 The Emerging Agenda: Middle-Class Inclusion in a Market Economy . 301 Notes . 333 References . 334 7 Building Modern Institutions for an Eff ective State . 339 Main Messages . 339 The Role of Institutions . 341 CONTENTS ix Diagnosing Vietnam’s Institutional Challenges . ..
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