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Rose-Roth Seminar Report Vilnius ROSE-ROTH 206 SEM 12 E Original: English NATO Parliamentary Assembly 80th Rose-Roth Seminar Vilnius, Lithuania 18-19 June 2012 SEMINAR REPORT EASTERN PARTNERS: CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGES AND FUTURE PROSPECTS International Secretariat October 2012 This Seminar Report is presented for information only and does not necessarily represent the official view of the Assembly. This report was prepared by Steffen Sachs, Director of the Political Committee. Assembly documents are available on its website, http://www.nato-pa.int 206 SEM 12 E 1 1. The NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s 80th Rose-Roth seminar in Vilnius, Lithuania focused on developments in NATO’s eastern partner countries and their relationship between the Alliance. The seminar brought together some 50 members of parliament from 19 NATO and partner countries. In addition, senior representatives from research institutes, international and non- governmental organisations, the diplomatic community and media participated in the discussions on 18 and 19 June, 2012. The seminar was jointly organised with the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania and with the support of the Swiss government. 2. The central themes of the seminar were a revision of the achievements of the period following the Cold War; the recognition that Europe’s eastern parts have thus far been largely been left out of the transformation of Europe; and a brief look to the future and to see what should be done to deal with the challenges that remain. 3. The event took place 20 years after the initial seminar in Vilnius in December 1991. A photo exhibition commemorated the first event in the Assembly’s Rose Roth series which, as former NATO PA Secretary General Simon Lunn pointed out, represented a visible symbol of the interest and commitment of the West, bringing NATO members of parliament to see at first hand the situation and to demonstrate their support for Lithuanian aspirations. Ceslovas Vytautas Stankevicius and Ambassador Jan Petersen, both participants in the 1991 seminar, reminded the audience of the broader political and historical context in which the first Rose Roth event took place. 4. The seminar started with a general revision of the developments in the former Warsaw Pact countries in the period following the Cold War. There was a broad consensus that a lot has been achieved. NATO PA President Dr. Karl A. Lamers and Speaker of the Seimas, Irena Degutiene, reminded participants of the huge success of Central and Eastern European countries’ integration into Euro-Atlantic structures after the fall of the Iron Curtain. The Lithuanian Minister of Defence, Rasa Jukneviciene, reminded participants that it was the active engagement of “those who lived for liberty and human rights” which ended the Cold War. Strong support by the West twenty years ago eventually enabled the three Baltic countries to become part of the Euro-Atlantic community. As a result, Lithuania has never been more secure than today, the Minister said. Moreover, she noted that the differentiation of values between Eastern and Western part was gradually disappearing. 5. Andrei Illarionov, senior fellow at the Cato Institute's Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity argued that the profound transformation of their political and economic systems enabled most countries of Central and Eastern Europe to establish democracies and market economies. He considered the achievement of political freedom the most important aspect of changes of the last 20 years. In this context he referred to Freedom House’s Political Freedom Index, which showed that most countries of the former Warsaw Pact experienced a huge increase in political freedom over that timeframe. A similar development could also be observed in the successor states of the former Yugoslavia, even though they experienced political freedom with some delay and to a lesser degree. 6. Both Ms Jukneviciene and Mr Illarionov emphasised that Europe’s eastern parts have thus far been largely been left out of the transformation of the continent. Europe is not yet completely whole and free and there are countries that are left behind, participants agreed. Elaborating on the different developments, Mr Illiarionov pointed out that, in contrast to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, political freedom and human rights standards in Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries had dropped considerably after an initial spike in the early 1990. Referring to data of Freedom House, Mr Illarionov stated the nine post-Communist countries among of the CIS experienced the largest decline in the Political Freedom Index political freedom between 1991 and 2011. Russia is a particular case as its people enjoyed a high level of political freedom in 1991. However, in 2011 political freedom in Russia is even below that of Zimbabwe, according to Illarionov. 206 SEM 12 E 2 7. Yet, surprisingly, the data provided by Freedom House and the Institute of Economic Analysis show an inverse relation between political freedom and economic growth. Over the last decade electoral democracies have achieved the lowest economic growth while non-free communist countries have experienced the highest economic growth, Mr Illarionov stated. How much of the economic growth in unfree countries is linked to the availability of natural resources, particularly to oil, was discussed by participants. Moreover, economic growth in non-free countries does not benefit every citizen, as one participant pointed out while another stressed that a considerable part of the economic growth in non-free countries is generated by investment from free countries. 8. How much the political landscape had changed after the fall of the Iron Curtain was also emphasised by Adam Michnik, Editor-in-Chief of the Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza. To illustrate his point he reminded participants that none of Poland’s three direct neighbours during the Cold War, the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, and the German Democratic Republic existed today. While he agreed that the developments have been very positive for Central and Eastern European countries, he also noted that new nationalism poses a problem to everybody. Official Lithuanian speakers stressed the need for NATO’s active engagement with its eastern partners, some of which are undergoing profound changes. Seimas speaker Irena Degutiene called upon NATO and EU member states to help their eastern partners in their transition process. Failing that, other countries would influence developments towards their liking. 9. Ukraine remains a pivotal country with a major impact on European security even after the government of Viktor Yanukovych decided to take NATO membership off the agenda. A considerable part of the discussion on Ukraine focused on domestic issues, conveying mixed perceptions of the direction of the country. For some, Ukraine was at a crossroads of democracy and dictatorship. Seminar discussions revealed concern about the domestic developments in the country, with participants stressing that the Ukrainian government’s declared commitment to uphold democratic values and principles was called into question by the selective application of justice. They argued that the current regime had little legitimacy, showed corruption at the highest level while the country had evidently significant judicial problems and a dissatisfied but quiescent public opinion. Several discussants also suggested that the Ukrainian president now held significant power and that the parliamentary and judicial powers now seemed subordinate. NATO PA President Karl A. Lamers and other seminar participants called upon President Yanukovich to release Yulia Tymoshenko and other political actors from prison. He encouraged Ukraine to have free, fair and open elections. Other seminar participants pointed to the difficult economic and political situation of Ukraine and suggested that the government was implementing much needed reforms. 10. In contrast to differing views of Ukraine’s domestic development, discussions revealed a general consensus that the foreign policy of the current government had run into difficulties. As an example they suggested that Kiyv had miscalculated its policy with the EU while its bilateral relationship with Russia remained rather cool. 11. The future orientation of the country is in one sense settled by Kiyv’s “no block” policy, which, as one participant stressed, effectively removed the question of NATO membership from the agenda. However, Ukraine remains a key partner for the Alliance, Marcin Koziel, Director of the NATO Liaison Office in Ukraine, reminded participants. He elaborated by noting that the relationship between NATO and Ukraine existed for 20 years already during which it underwent three different phases. The early 1990s saw the initial stages of relationship where NATO and Ukraine gradually developed a mutual understanding on key security issues. The next stage came with Orange revolution when membership in the Alliance became a priority for the Ukrainian government. Now, under the Yanukovich presidency, Ukraine changed its course again and was following a non-block policy. According to Mr Koziel, NATO accepted Kyiv’s new foreign policy direction: the Alliance has a long-term commitment to Ukraine and thus, is ready to continue its cooperation with Ukraine, particularly in defence reform. 206 SEM 12 E 3 12. A more positive outlook was given for Moldova. There is some progress in the negotiations on a Transnistrian settlement, according to Ambassador Erwan Fouere, Special Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office
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