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Amber Enterprises Limited Well-Placed to Benefit from Rising Localisation Viewpoint

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Amber Enterprises Limited Well-Placed to Benefit from Rising Localisation Viewpoint Amber Enterprises Limited Well-placed to benefit from rising localisation Viewpoint Amber has emerged as a market leader (in terms of volume) in the Indian Sector: Capital Goods room air-conditioner (RAC) original equipment manufacturing/ original design New Idea manufacturing (OEM/ODM) industry. It held a 70.7% (up from 47.3% in FY2015) in RAC OEM/ODM industry and 24.4% (up from 14.7% in FY2015) market share in the overall RAC market in FY2020, with 8 out of 10 RAC brands as clients (which Change command a 75% market share in RAC). Through its subsidiary Sidwal, it is the largest supplier of Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment View: Positive to the Indian Railways while also expanding its product portfolio to include the defence and telecom segments. Amber has strong growth tailwinds as RAC sales CMP: Rs. 1,768 volumes in India are projected to clock a 13.7% CAGR over FY2020-FY2025 while RAC OEM/ODM at a 19.5% CAGR led by rising disposable incomes, urbanisation, Upside potential: 28-30% lower RAC penetration (8%), extreme climatic conditions and rising construction activities. Amber offers branded AC players a strong value proposition in terms of á Upgrade No change â Downgrade increasing their focus on core marketing (instead of manufacturing) and improving ROCEs. Volume share of RAC OEM/ODM players is expected to grow to 45% in FY2025 from 35% in FY2020 which provides Amber a strong growth opportunity Company details to increase its sales and customer base. The company’s 15 manufacturing facilities are located in proximity to clients. A high degree of backward integration (aided by Market cap: Rs. 5,559 cr acquisitions of companies such as PICL, IL JIN and EVER), strong R&D capabilities enables faster turnaround and higher proportion of ODM. India’s RAC components 52-week high/low: Rs. 1,997/812 imports (~30%) in FY2019 is slated to be 2.5-3x in FY2025E, while the government’s Atmanirbhar Bharat focus is expected to increase OEM/ODMs’ market share NSE volume: yielding strong growth opportunities for Amber. The company recently raised ~Rs. 1.8 lakh (No of shares) 400 crore through a QIP, which is expected to be used to repay debt and fund capex for long-term growth. We expect Amber to post 32%/60%/116% CAGR in Revenue/ BSE code: 540902 EBITDA/PAT over FY2021E-FY2023E led by enhanced capacity, greater product offerings and customer penetration coupled with healthy demand outlook for the electronic outsourcing industry. NSE code: AMBER Multiple growth avenues in offing Sharekhan code: AMBER Amber’s leadership positioning in Indian RAC OEM/ODM industry (expected to clock a 19.5% CAGR over FY2020-FY2025) along with increasing trend of localised Free float: 1.8 cr manufacturing (Atma Nirbhar) is expected to drive its earnings over FY2021E- (No of shares) FY2023E. Further, past acquisitions for backward integration and newer segments like HVAC are expected to help opening up growth avenues in sectors such as railways, metros, defence, telecom, etc. Structural growth triggers like low RAC penetration, urbanisation, rising disposable income, increasing construction activities etc, are Shareholding (%) expected to lead to high earnings growth trajectory going ahead. Promoters 44.0 Valuations: Initiate viewpoint coverage with a Positive view and upside of 28-30%: With its unique FII 13.3 scalable and sustainable business model, we expect Amber to clock a 32%/60%/116% CAGR in Revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY2021E-FY2023E led by enhanced capacity, DII 6.6 increased product offerings and customer penetration coupled with healthy demand outlook for the electronic outsourcing industry. Amber is currently trading at a P/E of Others 36.1 41.6x/24.3x its FY2022E/FY2023E, which leaves room for further upside, considering its high earnings growth trajectory over FY2021E-FY2023E. Hence, we initiate viewpoint coverage on the stock with Positive view and expect an upside of 28-30%. Price chart Key Risks 2000 1) Lower demand off-take due to economic slowdown (also due to COVID-19) might 1800 impact revenue growth momentum and raw material price volatility and forex rate 1600 fluctuation can impact profitability. 2) Lack of diversified revenue base in terms of 1400 1200 product categories and high revenue concentration. 1000 800 Valuation (Consolidated) Rs cr 20 20 19 20 - - - - Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Jan Sep Sep - May - - - Revenue 2,752 3,963 3,196 4,275 5,562 11 11 11 11 OPM (%) 7.7 7.8 5.5 6.9 8.1 Price performance Adjusted PAT 94 158 53 143 246 % y-o-y growth 50.3 69.1 (66.7) 171.7 71.4 (%) 1m 3m 6m 12m Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 29.8 50.4 15.7 42.5 72.9 P/E (x) 59.4 35.1 112.9 41.6 24.3 Absolute 7 29 40 111 P/B (x) 5.6 4.9 3.8 3.5 3.1 Relative to EV/EBIDTA (x) 27.0 18.6 33.9 20.2 13.6 6 14 21 106 Sensex RoNW (%) 10.0 15.0 3.9 8.7 13.4 RoCE (%) 13.5 15.8 6.0 10.4 15.3 Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates September 11, 2020 14 Viewpoint Leadership position in OEM/ODM segment of RAC Amber has emerged as a market leader (in terms of volume) in the Indian room air-conditioner (RAC) Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM)/Original Design Manufacturer (ODM) industry with 70.7% (up from 47.3% in FY2015) market share and 24.4% (up from 14.7% in FY2015) market share in overall RAC market in FY2020, with 8 out of 10 RAC brands as clients (that command a 75% market share in the RAC space). Growing competition among major branded players in RAC companies has shifted their focus to manufacturing to marketing and brand-building. Consequently, manufacturing and designing as well as after-market service functions are being outsourced to OEM/ODM players. These players can manufacture and design RACs at lower cost compared to branded players as they enjoy economies of scale manufacturing for many players. The volume share of RAC OEM/ODM players is expected to grow to 45% in FY2025 from 35% in FY2020 which provides strong growth opportunity for Amber to increase its sales and customer base. Amber market share in OEM/ODM Amber market share in RAC 80 85.3 70.7 90 80.9 70 80 75.6 60 52.7 55.4 70 47.3 50 44.6 60 50 40 29.3 40 30 30 24.4 19.1 20 20 14.7 10 10 0 0 FY15 FY17 FY20 FY15 FY17 FY20 Amber Others Amber Others Source: Frost & Sullivan; Sharekhan Research Source: Frost & Sullivan; Sharekhan Research Strong industry growth tailwinds expected over FY2020-FY2025 The Indian room air conditioners market was estimated at 7.2 million units in FY2020. The RAC market in India is highly competitive with the presence of domestic, international, and unorganised players. This market is segregated into two segments wherein the split room air-conditioner segment generates the highest market share. On an average, the summer temperature in India remains above 24°C. Amber has strong growth tailwinds as Indian RAC volumes are projected to clock a 13.7% CAGR over FY2020-FY2025 while RAC OEM/ODM is likely to record a 19.5% CAGR. This growth anticipation rides on the back of extreme climatic conditions, rising disposable income, better quality of life, demand for comfort cooling, urbanisation, decreasing replacement cycle and growing construction activities, in both commercial and residential sectors. Again, with RAC being the least penetrated category in consumer durables segment with 8% penetration in the country, should enable Amber to post strong revenue growth rate of 32% CAGR over FY2021E-FY2023E. RAC volume trend RAC OEM/ODM volume trend 16 7 13.7 6.1 14 6 11.5 12 4.8 5 9.7 10 3.8 8.1 4 7.2 8 6.5 6.7 3 5.5 3 2.5 2.3 6 4.7 2.1 1.8 3.9 2 1.6 4 3.4 1 1.2 2 1 0 0 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 Indian RAC market (mn units) Indian RAC OEM/ODM (mn units) Source: Frost & Sullivan; Sharekhan Research Source: Frost & Sullivan; Sharekhan Research September 11, 2020 15 Viewpoint RAC Penetration Vs Other countries RAC Penetration Vs Other consumer durables 160 100 92 138 88 140 90 80 80 65 120 70 60 100 80 77 50 42 80 40 33 30 60 44 49 30 42 36 19 40 20 8 12 8 12 10 20 0 0 RAC FPD TV India China Global Washing Machine Air Cooler Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Singapore Phillipines Refrigerator RAC market penetration (%) India Global Source: Frost & Sullivan; Sharekhan Research Source: Frost & Sullivan; Sharekhan Research Indigenous manufacturing shift (Atmanirbhar Bharat) a big opportunity India currently imports ~30% of finished RAC which is valued at Rs. 4200-4500 crores in FY2019. The equal value of components is also being imported with respect to RAC. Estimating the current industry growth & moderately developed component eco-system currently in India for the RAC industry, the Rs. 9,000 crs worth of Imports is expected to reach INR 2.5x-3.0x of current levels in FY2025E. Consequently, government has identified RACs as one of the priority sector industry among twelve other industries for Atmanirbhar Bharat. In FY2015, 28% of the total volumes in the RAC market was catered to by OEM/ODM players, which grew to 35% in FY2020 and is further expected to grow to 45%.
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