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Axis Bank Strong Operating Performance Stock Update Stock

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Axis Bank Strong Operating Performance Stock Update Stock Axis Bank Strong operating performance Stock Update Stock Sector: Banks & Finance Axis Bank posted healthy performance for Q2FY20 wherein its operating results were strong and asset quality improved. The Net Result Update interest income (NII) of the bank increased by 16.6% y-o-y to Rs6101 crore (we expected 14.4% y-o-y) while the non-interest income Change jumped by 45.5% y-o-y to Rs3895 crore. Net interest margin on an overall basis improved by 11 BPS q-o-q to 3.51%. The quarter saw a Reco: Buy net loss as the performance was impacted by one-time DTA impact CMP: Rs. 713 of Rs2138 Cr due to reduction of corporate tax rate. CASA ratio for the quarter stood steady at 41.1% as against 41.3% q-o-q. Spike in Price Target: Rs. 882 the other income was driven by trading profits which stood at Rs809 crores as compared to Rs136 crores in Q2FY19 and miscellaneous á Upgrade No change â Downgrade Income of Rs438 crores as compared to Rs167 crores in Q2FY19. Fee income for Q2FY20 grew 11% y-o-y to Rs2,649 crores and the key driver of fee income growth was retail fees, which grew 16% y-o-y Company details and constituted 64% of the Bank’s total fee income. Banks domestic Market cap: Rs. 200,922 cr loan growth stood at 19% y-o-y while overseas book de-grew by 25% y-o-y. Retail loans grew 23% y-o-y to Rs2,73,223 crores and 52-week high/low: Rs. 827/534 accounted for 52% of the net advances. Asset quality for the quarter improved on a sequential basis as GNPA ratio declined by 22 BPS NSE volume: (No of q-o-q to 5.03% while Net NPA ratio declined by 5 BPS q-o-q to 1.99%. 106.5 lakh shares) We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with an unchanged PT of Rs882. BSE code: 532215 Key positives NSE code: AXISBANK Improvement in asset quality (GNPA Ratio at 5.03% versus 5.25% Sharekhan code: AXISBANK q-o-q) is a positive. Outstanding BB & below corporate loans declined by 16% q-o-q and stood at 1.1% of customer assets Free float: (No of 236.2 cr The bank’s capital adequacy is strong (CET-1 at 14.04%) which we shares) believe will enable the bank to push for higher growth Key negatives Shareholding (%) One time DTA impact of Rs2138 crore impacting the current quarter Promoters 16.6 profitability FII 48.2 Our Call DII 18.3 Valuation: Axis Bank currently trades at 2.3xFY21E Book value which is Others 17.0 reasonable considering a well- diversified loan book having strengths in both the retail and corporate segments. The bank’s liability profile has improved significantly, which would be helpful in sustaining margins at Price chart healthy levels. Of late, asset quality is improving, which we believe is positive for its profitability and growth going forward. We maintain our 900 BUY rating on the stock with an unchanged PT of Rs882. 800 700 Key Risks 600 500 Rise in NPAs in unsecured and other retail banking segment can pose 400 risks to profitability. 300 19 19 18 19 - - - - Jun Oct Oct Feb Valuation Rs cr Particulars FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Net interest income (Rs cr) 18,618 21,708 25,587 30,005 Price performance Net profit (Rs cr) 276 4,676 7,816 10,835 (%) 1m 3m 6m 12m EPS (Rs) 1.1 18.2 30.4 42.1 PE (x) 663.8 39.2 23.5 16.9 Absolute 9.4 -4.2 -7.9 23.3 Book value (Rs/share) 247.2 256.9 281.9 316.4 Relative to P/BV (x) 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.8 -5.5 -9.0 7.8 Sensex RoE (%) 0.5 7.2 11.2 14.0 RoA (%) 0.0 0.6 0.9 1.0 Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates October 22, 2019 12 Stock Update Stock Results Rs cr Particulars Q2FY20 Q2FY19 YoY % Q1FY20 QoQ % Interest income 15,437.8 13,281.0 16.2 15,255.0 1.2 Interest expense 9,336.0 8,048.9 16.0 9,411.3 -0.8 Net interest income 6,101.8 5,232.1 16.6 5,843.7 4.4 Non-interest income 3,895.8 2,678.4 45.5 3,868.8 0.7 Net total income 9,997.6 7,910.5 26.4 9,712.4 2.9 Operating expenses 4,046.0 3,816.5 6.0 3,819.7 5.9 Pre-provisioning profit 5,951.6 4,094.0 45.4 5,892.8 1.0 Provisions 3,518.4 2,927.4 20.2 3,814.6 -7.8 Profit before tax 2,433.2 1,166.6 108.6 2,078.2 17.1 Tax 2,545.3 377.0 575.1 708.1 259.5 Profit after tax -112.1 789.6 NA 1,370.1 NA Source: Company; Sharekhan Research One year forward P/BV (x) band 3.5 2.9 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.5 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - - - - - - - Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct PBV +1 sd 3-yr Avg -1 sd Source: Sharekhan Research Peer Comparison CMP P/BV(x) P/E(x) RoA (%) RoE (%) Particulars Rs/Share FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E Axis Bank 713 2.5 2.3 23.5 16.9 0.9 1.0 11.2 14.0 HDFC Bank 1239 4.1 3.5 25.9 20.7 1.9 2.0 16.5 18.2 IndusInd Bank 1341 3.0 2.5 17.9 14.0 1.5 1.6 16.5 17.8 Kotak Mahindra 1629 6.2 5.4 48.6 40.7 1.9 1.9 13.7 14.2 Bank Source: Company, Sharekhan research October 22, 2019 13 Stock Update Stock About company Axis bank is promoted by SUUTI (an entity established in 2003) and today is the third largest private sector bank in India. The Bank offers the entire spectrum of financial services to customer segments covering Large and Mid-Corporates, MSME, Agriculture and Retail Businesses. The bank has 11 subsidiaries, amongst which Axis Capital Ltd., Axis Securities Ltd. (ASL), Axis Asset Management Company Ltd. (AAMC), and Freecharge are some of the notable ones. The bank may explore opportunities in the Insurance business, as the new leadership settles down. Bank have strong market position across most digital payment products. Investment theme Axis Bank has a well- diversified loan book having strengths in both retail and corporate segments. The bank’s liability profile has improved significantly, which would be helpful in sustaining margins at healthy levels. Of late, asset quality is improving, which we believe is positive for its profitability and growth going forward. Business restructuring as well as drivers such as normalisation of corporate fee income and growth coming from retail plus midmarket group are steps in the right direction, which will augment sustainability and profitability. We expect earnings growth to remain reasonably strong, driven by healthy operating performance. Asset-quality pressure has peaked out and we expect long-term outlook to improve. Key Risks Rise in NPAs in unsecured and other retail banking segment can pose risks to profitability. Additional Data Key management personnel Key management personnel Mr Amitabh Chaudhry MD & CEO Mr Rajesh Dahiya Excecutive Director (Corporate Centre) Mr Rajiv Anand Excecutive Director Mr Jairam Sridharan Group Excecutive & CFO Mr Deepak Maheshwari Group Excecutive & CCO Mr Ganesh Sankaran Group Excecutive & Wholesale Banking Mr Pralay Mondal Group Excecutive & Head of Retail Banking Source: Company Website Top 10 shareholders Sr. No. Holder Name Holding (%) 1 Life Insurance Corp of India 9.0 2 Unit Trust of India 4.6 3 SBI Funds Management Pvt Ltd 3.6 4 BlackRock Inc 2.7 5 Capital Group Cos Inc/The 2.5 6 Dodge & Cox 2.4 7 ICICI Prudential Asset Management 2.4 8 BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP/THE 2.4 9 Vanguard Group Inc/The 2.3 10 BC ASIA INVESTMENTS 2.0 Source: Bloomberg Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article. October 22, 2019 14 Know more about our products and services For Private Circulation only Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Sharekhan Ltd. (SHAREKHAN) and is intended for use only by the person or entity to which it is addressed to. This Document may contain confidential and/or privileged material and is not for any type of circulation and any review, retransmission, or any other use is strictly prohibited. This Document is subject to changes without prior notice. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Though disseminated to all customers who are due to receive the same, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. SHAREKHAN will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. The information contained herein is obtained from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable and SHAREKHAN has not independently verified the accuracy and completeness of the said data and hence it should not be relied upon as such. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, SHAREKHAN, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and employees (“SHAREKHAN and affiliates”) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current.
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