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Hurricane Iselle Information from CPHC Advisory 31, 11:00 AM HST Thursday August 7, 2014 Hurricane Iselle Is Weaker but Remains a Significant Threat to Hawaii

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Hurricane Iselle Information from CPHC Advisory 31, 11:00 AM HST Thursday August 7, 2014 Hurricane Iselle Is Weaker but Remains a Significant Threat to Hawaii HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™ Hurricane Iselle Information from CPHC Advisory 31, 11:00 AM HST Thursday August 7, 2014 Hurricane Iselle is weaker but remains a significant threat to Hawaii. On the forecast track Iselle is expected to pass over the Big Island tonight and pass south of the smaller islands on Friday. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Iselle may weaken to a tropical storm tonight. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 75 mph Position Relative to 195 miles ESE of Speed: (category 1) Land: Hilo Hawaii Tonight around 8 PM HST Est. Time & Region: on Hawaii’s Big Island Min Central Pressure: 991 mb Coordinates: 18.9 N, 151.45 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 70 - 75 mph (Strong Trop. 140 miles Bearing/Speed: WNW or 285 degrees at 16 mph Winds Extent: Speed: Storm or Category 1) Forecast Summary The current Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) forecast map (below left) shows Iselle making landfall Thursday evening around 8PM HST on Hawaii’s Big Island at category 1 hurricane strength. The windfield map (below right), based on the CPHC track forecast, shows Iselle bringing hurricane storm strength winds to the Big Island and tropical storm strength winds to most of the rest of Hawaii. Conditions will steadily deteriorate over the Big Island this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive well before dark. Hurricane conditions are expected for portions of the Big Island tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected over Maui County tonight, and for Oahu late tonight and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected for Kauai county later Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts to 12 inches, are expected along the track of Iselle. These rains could cause life- threatening flash floods as well as rock and mud slides. Swells generated by Iselle will continue to rise along east facing shores. Very large, damaging surf is expected along some east and south shores. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters . The water could reach flood heights of 1 to 2 feet on the windward portions of the Big Island and Kau. Forecast Track for Hurricane Iselle Forecast Windfield for Hurricane Iselle (Based on CPHC at 12:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp. (Central Pacific Hurricane Center) TropicTropic ofof CancerCancer Honolulu 08-09 08-08 Hawaii 08-07 0250500125 Mile © Copyright 2014 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled Hazard and damage potential maps produced from third party sources and we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general guidance only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in by Willis are based on numerical modeling connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation. of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis”). Willis is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. 1 of 2 Coastal Watches and Warnings A hurricane warning – meaning hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area - is in effect for Hawaii County. A tropical storm warning – meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours – is in effect for Maui County – including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe - Oahu County, and Kauai County including the islands of Kauai and Niihau. Hurricane Julio Still a Threat but May Pass North of Hawaii Forecast Track for Hurricane Julio Forecast Windfield for Hurricane Julio (National Hurricane Center) (Based on GFDL at 12:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp. TropicTropic ofof CancerCancer 08-12 08-11 08-10 USUS 08-09 08-08 08-07 0250 500 1,000 Miles Julio Forecast Summary The current National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast map (above left) shows Julio passing to the north of Hawaii at tropical storm strength but includes most of the islands within the cone of uncertainty – the area where Julio’s center may actually track. The windfield map (above right) is based on the GFDL model - one of many used to inform the NHC forecast - and provides an alternative perspective. It has Julio taking a more southerly track, bringing hurricane winds to several of the islands. The forecast track for this model is shown in bold gray and the NHC’s forecast track is shown in bold black. To illustrate the overall uncertainty in Arthur’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray – most of these track north of the islands. NHC Estimates of New Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Formation National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on August 7, 2014 The map at right shows the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone formation potential over the next 5 days in the Eastern Pacific. There is a 20% chance of formation in the next 5 days for a trough of low pressure indicated with a yellow X south- southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Contact us Roy Cloutier 7760 France Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55435 [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 Page 2 of 2 .
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