ELECTIONS 2002 State Legislative Elections By Tim Storey
2002 was a major election year for legislatures, with over 85 percent of all seats up for election, resulting in more than 26 percent turnover among legislators in election states. The Republican Party netted more than 175 legislative seats across the country and wound up with more seats than the Democrats for the first time in 50 years. Republicans now hold control of 21 state legislatures, compared to 16 for the Democrats. Twelve legislatures are split between the two parties and Nebraska is nonpartisan.
When the book is closed on the 2002 legislative redistricting election, 15 states had term-limit laws elections, Democrats will likely want to hide it on a on the books, but none had taken effect. Term limits high, out-of-the-way shelf to be forgotten. For Repub- are now in effect and forcing retirements in 11 states licans though, the story of last November’s elections and are on the books in 17 states. is a page-turner with a happy ending, destined for a In this election, term limits ousted a total of 322 prominent spot on the coffee table. In terms of total legislative incumbents. Arizona, Michigan and Mis- statehouse seats held by each party, Republicans souri were the states hit hardest by term limits, which nudged past the Democrats last fall for the first time for the first time affected members of both chambers in 50 years. The GOP also emerged holding control in Arizona and Missouri and the Michigan Senate. of 21 state legislatures — more than it has controlled The Michigan Senate lost a whopping 27 of its 38 in five decades. While the GOP enjoyed a good elec- members due to term limits, or 71 percent. More than tion night, there were some bright spots for Democrats half of the new Michigan senators will be familiar as well, and the final analysis shows that legislatures with the process because they are former House mem- are still very evenly divided and likely to stay that bers. New members filled 17 of Arizona’s 30 Senate way for the foreseeable future. seats (57 percent turnover) but as in Michigan, not By every measure, this was a big election year for all of them are strangers to the capitol. Twelve of the states. In addition to 36 gubernatorial races, elections new Arizona senators might be called “red shirt fresh- took place for more than 6,214 total legislative seats, men,” a term used in college sports for freshmen that or more than 85 percent of all seats in the 50 states. sit out to gain experience before starting their formal The total number of legislators to be elected was up athletic careers. Those 12 have all served previously slightly from the usual 80 percent because 2002 was in Arizona’s House. Almost half of Missouri House the first election following redistricting using the members could not run again because of term limits, 2000 census data. In a handful of states, such as Texas contributing to an overall turnover there of 90 new and Illinois, senators run on a staggered schedule, members, or 55 percent. with half or one-third of the body up for election every two years. Some of those states require that all Turnover members stand for election after redistricting, with Just as turnover peaked in the post-redistricting the result that elections in years ending in “2” are years of 1982 and 1992, it spiked up again in 2002 to the biggest in each decade. Forty-six states had regu- 26.3 percent in states that had regular elections. That lar legislative elections in 2002. States without elec- comes out to more than 1,750 freshman legislators tions included Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey taking the oath. Turnover in legislatures declined and Virginia, which conduct legislative elections in steadily for nearly two decades before leveling off odd numbered years. No regular senate elections were in the 1990s and hovering near 20 percent through- held in Kansas, New Mexico and South Carolina, out the decade. In states that held elections in 2000, only house races, so the total number of chambers overall election turnover was just over 17 percent. In holding elections last November was 89. 2002, turnover was 26.8 percent for lower chambers and 24.8 percent for senates. This overall turnover Effects of Term Limits data includes 43 legislative seats that were eliminated 2002 was the first year in which redistricting and completely by Rhode Island and North Dakota. Those term limits converged to affect legislative elections states reduced the size of their legislatures by 37 and and drive up turnover. In 1992, the most recent post- 6 seats respectively. The New York Senate expanded
The Council of State Governments 81 ELECTIONS by one seat to 62. There are now 7,382 state legisla- 21, 2002, while Democrats held 3,642 seats. Inde- tive seats in the 50 states, not including the territories pendents and other third party members held 21 seats, and the District of Columbia. a mere 0.3 percent of the total. Going into Election Day 2002, turnover stood at The last time the GOP held more seats than the 21 percent based on retirements (voluntary as well Democrats was following the 1952 election, when as those forced by term limits) and primary defeats. Republicans commanded 51 percent of all seats (see The bulk of all seats that turned — roughly 84 per- Figure A). This election was only the third time in cent — were in the pre-election turnover category. the past 33 election cycles, going back to 1938, when Incumbents who lost in the general election account- the GOP emerged with more seats than Democrats. ed for only 16 percent of total turnover. Another way The previous Republican majority years were 1946 to look at it is that only 4 percent of all incumbents and 1952. lost their seat to an opponent of the opposite party. Even though the total number of seats held by each The top five states in lower house turnover were Mis- party is essentially tied, Republicans have a five-state souri, Arizona, Michigan, Maine and California; all advantage in overall control of legislatures. That is of them are term-limited states. The top senate turn- the biggest margin for the GOP since the 1952 elec- over states were Michigan, Arizona, New Hampshire, tion, when Republicans controlled 10 more state leg- Arkansas and South Dakota. islatures than the Democrats did. Republicans hold both the house and senate in 21 states, up from 17 GOP Gains Result in Parity before the election. That’s the most states the GOP When it comes to legislatures, 2002 will go down has held since the party claimed 26 legislatures in in history as the year the two major parties wound 1952. Democrats went from controlling 18 to 16 leg- up dead even. Legislative seats are now split 50-50. islatures. Partisan control is divided in 12 states, with Once Nebraska’s 49 nonpartisan senators and the 21 neither party having a majority in both legislative seats held by third parties are factored into the equa- chambers. In terms of chambers held by each party, tion, neither major political party controls more than Republicans now control 52, Democrats 43, and three 50 percent of the nation’s legislative seats. Republi- are tied. Figure B shows how evenly divided the cans hold 49.6 percent, and Democrats have 49.4 country’s legislatures were heading into 2003 sessions. percent, leaving exactly 1 percent in the “other” col- The margin of control also is extremely close in umn. It simply doesn’t get any closer. Although it is many chambers, making for some tenuous majori- always a bit of a moving target because of constant ties. In 22 of the nation’s legislative chambers, the vacancies and special elections, the total number of majority party held less than 55 percent of the seats Republican legislators stood at 3,667 on November after November’s elections. As is almost always the
Figure A: Legislative Seats Held by Democrats and Republicans 1938-2002 6,000
5,000
4,000
Total LegislativeTotal Seats 3,000
2,000
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002 Election Year
Democratic Seats Republican Seats Note: Percentage calculation excludes nonpartisan elections in Minnesota (1938-74) and Nebraska (1938-2002)
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Figure B: 2003 Legislative Party Control
Democratic Republican
Split Nonpartisan case, a few chambers wound up tied. The New Jersey Missouri, a perennial bellwether state, followed Senate, North Carolina House and Oregon Senate have the national Republican trend. Taking advantage of the same number of Democrats and Republicans. A redistricting and opportunities provided by term lim- switch of merely one seat due to a vacancy would its, Republicans pulled in a remarkable 13 seats to change party control in the Colorado Senate, Indi- gain control of the Missouri House for the first time ana House, Maine Senate and the Washington Senate. since 1954. This follows Republican victories that gave the GOP control of the state Senate in 2001. Party Control Shifts Democrats still hold the Missouri governor’s office. The Colorado Senate switched back to Republi- On average, party control shifts in 12 chambers can control after two years with Democrats at the nationwide in every election cycle (see Figure C), helm, giving the GOP total control of Colorado state and the 2002 cycle exactly matched the average. government. Republicans have a narrow 18-17 ad- Twelve chambers shifted from one column to the vantage in Colorado’s Senate. other, including shifts in the 2001 off-year elections. The Wisconsin Senate went to the Republicans as Republicans picked up seven chambers overall, and well. At the same time, Democrats took hold of the Democrats gained two. Two chambers went from Re- governor’s office for the first time in nearly 16 years. publican to tied and one from Democrat to tied. A scandal involving top Wisconsin legislative leaders Republicans picked up the Texas House under a from both parties loomed over the campaign, but new redistricting plan drawn by a commission that voters re-elected all of the leaders implicated in the all observers agreed heavily favored the GOP. The court filings. Wisconsin incumbents were forced to run commission took on the task after the Legislature under a court-drawn redistricting plan, because the deadlocked. Republicans now control all of Texas divided Legislature could not adopt a plan of its own. state government, including the Legislature, The Arizona Senate deadlock was broken as the governor’s office and all statewide elected officials, chamber went from being tied 15-15 to a solid 17-13 for the first time since 1870, which was the last time Republican majority. A bipartisan commission out- the Texas House was Republican. side the Legislature drew the Arizona redistricting plan.
The Council of State Governments 83 ELECTIONS
Figure C: U.S. State Legislative Chamber Party Control Switches 1940-2002
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1940
1948 1956
1964
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1980 1988
1996
2002 Year
House Switches Senate Switches Total Switches
Under a court-drawn redistricting plan that put learned that they would continue to control the Senate. Democrats on the defensive, Tarheel voters delivered Democrat Chris Hall won a hotly contested Senate the North Carolina House to the GOP 61-59 following seat by only nine votes, giving the party a one-vote four years of Democratic majorities. However, a post- majority in the chamber. The Senate had been tied election switch by one GOP House member left the following the 2000 election, but a midterm special- chamber knotted at 60-60 going into the 2003 legisla- election victory gave the Democrats control going tive session. Many North Carolina Republicans thought into the 2002 election. Democrats also picked up the their best chance for a takeover was the state Senate, governor’s office in Maine, leaving the state with but Democrats held on to a 28-22 majority. Republicans unified Democratic control of government for the first have not held the state’s Senate for more than a century. time since the 1984 election. Party switchers delivered Georgia Senate control In addition to their success in Maine, Democrats to the GOP for the first time in the state’s history. In took control of Illinois for the first time in a quarter the days immediately following the election, four century by winning the state Senate and governor- Democratic senators switched their affiliation to the ship. The stage was set for a Democratic takeover Republican Party. Those four were encouraged to join when a coin flip gave the party control of a commis- the GOP by Georgia’s newly elected Republican sion responsible for drawing new district lines using governor, Sonny Perdue, himself a former Democrat. the 2000 census numbers. Illinois is the only state In the chamber that has been the most competitive where control of redistricting is left to chance. in recent years, Republicans managed a surprise take- By securing a 15-15 tie in the Oregon Senate, over of the Washington Senate. Washington’s Senate Democrats wrested another chamber out of the GOP has changed hands in five of the last eight elections. column. This was only the third time in the last 64 Only the Maine Senate comes close to Washing- years that the chamber has changed party control. ton’s level of volatility. Party control of the Senate Prospects for Oregon Senate Democrats are good; in Maine has changed in four of the past five election Republicans will have to defend 10 of the 15 seats cycles. It was not until after numerous recounts and up for election in 2004, while Democrats will only state Supreme Court action that Maine Democrats need to hold on to five.
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It should also be noted that the Democrats enjoyed they hold 58 percent of all legislative seats. Midwest- early victories in this election cycle during the 2001 ern Democrats currently find themselves at their low- elections in New Jersey and Virginia, the only off- est point since 1962. Democrats gained a net of five year legislative elections. In Virginia, the Republi- seats in the West, where the party continues to slowly cans added to their majorities in both chambers, but gain influence. Democrats are also still strong in the Democrats seized control of the New Jersey Assem- East, where they claim 53 percent of all seats. This bly and gained a tie in the New Jersey Senate. includes controlling four of New England’s six state legislatures. In terms of total seats netted, the two The President’s Influence in Midterm best states for Democrats in 2002 were Vermont in Elections the East, where they gained 10 seats, and Idaho in Before November, history showed the president’s the West, where they picked up 11 seats. party could not gain state legislative seats in a mid- The strongest state for the Democrats is also in New England: 85 percent of Massachusetts legisla- term election. Since 1938 (and possibly before, since tors are Democrats. The strongest Republican state previous records are not available) the president’s is Idaho in the West, where 78 percent of all law- party had lost an average of more than 350 seats in makers are Republican. every midterm election cycle. That trend nearly ended in 1998, however, when Democrats lost a total of only one seat during Bill Clinton’s second midterm elec- Redistricting tion. The conventional wisdom was proven wrong One of the most important factors in the 2002 elec- when, comfortably riding the wake of President tions was redistricting. It probably had more to do George W. Bush’s 65 percent popularity ratings, Re- with the outcome than any traditional issue, includ- publicans netted more than 175 total seats in this ing education, roads or health care, and maybe even cycle, including 2001 off-year elections in New Jer- the economy. The U.S. Constitution mandates redis- sey and Virginia. The last time Democrats had a net tricting of all state legislative districts after the de- gain in legislative seats was in 1996, when Bill cennial census. This ensures that all districts are Clinton won his second term. roughly equal in population and comply with the Pundits emphasized that President Bush’s strong constitutional principle of one-person-one-vote. Be- approval rating almost certainly helped Republicans fore the 2002 elections, all but two states holding in legislative races down the ticket. The GOP also elections had completed the redistricting process. waged a stronger than usual “get out the vote” effort Maine and Montana did not have new districts in in several key states, including Georgia, Missouri and place last November. Both of those states will redis- New Hampshire, helping boost Republicans running trict in time for the 2004 elections. for all offices. In 11 of the 12 legislative chambers where party control switched in this first post-redistricting elec- Regional Analysis tion cycle, either a commission or a court drew the new district lines. Redistricting plans drawn outside In 2002, the GOP continued to chip away at the the legislature leave the majority party in a more Democrats’ traditional power base in the South. vulnerable position than if the legislature draws its Democrats have lost Southern seats in every legisla- own lines. In the 25 states where the legislature tive election cycle since 1982. That year they held adopted its own redistricting plan, there were no party 83 percent of all seats in the region. Although it is control changes. The only exception was the Geor- still the Democrat’s strongest region, they only hold gia Senate, where a Democratic plan helped elect four 56 percent of Southern legislative seats. Democrats who subsequently switched to the GOP, With the North Carolina House going to tied and delivering control of the chamber to the Republicans. the Georgia Senate switching to the GOP, Democrats now control only half of the South’s 16 state legisla- tures. Following the last post-redistricting election Divided Government in 1992, Democrats held every legislative chamber Change in governorships actually topped turnover in the South except the Florida Senate, which was in legislatures and led to an overall tally of 29 states tied. For over 100 years, the party dominated every with divided government, up from 28 before the elec- legislative chamber in the region, but since 1992, tion. In these states, no single party controls the Republicans have picked up 13. governor’s office and both houses of the legislature. Republicans are strongest in the Midwest, where The number of states with divided government has
The Council of State Governments 85 ELECTIONS hovered near 30 for the past 18 years. The tally of women ran for legislative office under a major party divided states jumped from 21 to 28 in the 1984 elec- label in 2002, and more than 1,445 of them were suc- tion. Regionally, the states with unified government cessful. Just over 62 percent of the female candidates are more likely to be in the South and West, where won their races. CAWP data shows that women made 14 of the 20 unified states are found. dramatic gains in legislatures from 1970 to the early Legislatures in 24 states will have to work with 1990s. In 1971, women held only 4.5 percent of all new state executives. This is the largest number of seats. However, since the mid-1990s, the percentage new governors since at least 1960. Before the elec- of female legislators has leveled off at around 22 tion, there were 27 Republican governors, 21 Demo- percent. Washington continues to have the highest cratic governors and two independents. Now there percentage of female legislators at 39 percent. Ala- are 26 Republican and 24 Democratic governors. bama has the lowest percentage of women legisla- Democrats picked up key posts in Michigan, Illinois tors at 8 percent. and Pennsylvania and won surprise victories in Wyo- ming and Kansas. But Republicans won in the tradi- Conclusion tionally Democratic strongholds of Hawaii, Mary- Even though 2002 was a good year for the GOP land and Georgia. Overall, party control of the and Republicans continued to show strength in state governor’s office switched in 20 states. legislative elections, state governments remain evenly divided between the two major parties. The most Leaders prominent issue facing almost all of the legislators About a third of 2002’s legislative leaders did not who won in 2002 will be budget shortfalls. An NCSL return to those roles this year. Some 120 leadership fiscal survey in November 2002 showed states fac- changes were expected when lawmakers convened ing a combined $18 billion budget shortfall before in January, including at least 46 senate presidents, the end of fiscal year 2003; 2004 looks worse. Sim- senate presidents pro tem and house speakers. This ply put, the state fiscal outlook is gloomier than it comes close to the sweeping leadership changes in has been in over a decade, so many of the newly 1994 when 138 leadership posts changed. elected legislators may wonder why they sought to Speaker Thomas Murphy, who was the nation’s enter the field at such a challenging time. And no longest serving House speaker, lost his re-election matter what course states plot through the fiscal straits bid in Georgia in a newly drawn district that left the that lie ahead, it is certain that most of them will legendary speaker more vulnerable than ever. Murphy have to identify bipartisan solutions, given the even partisan balance that exists across the country. had pounded the gavel longer than any Georgia speaker in history. He was first elected to the Geor- gia General Assembly in 1961 and was chosen About the Author speaker in 1974. Tim Storey is a program principal in the Legislative Management Program of the National Conference of State Legislatures in Denver, Colorado. He specializes in Women in Legislatures elections and redistricting, as well as legislative staff orga- According to preliminary data from the Center for nization and management. He received his undergraduate American Women in Politics at Rutgers University, degree from Mars Hill College in western North Carolina and has done graduate study in political science and public women made slight numerical gains in legislatures administration at the University of North Carolina at this past election. Women will comprise about 22.8 Greensboro and at the Graduate School of Public Affairs percent of the state legislatures. More than 2,360 of the University of Colorado.
86 The Book of the States 2003