ELECTIONS 2002 State Legislative Elections By Tim Storey 2002 was a major election year for legislatures, with over 85 percent of all seats up for election, resulting in more than 26 percent turnover among legislators in election states. The Republican Party netted more than 175 legislative seats across the country and wound up with more seats than the Democrats for the first time in 50 years. Republicans now hold control of 21 state legislatures, compared to 16 for the Democrats. Twelve legislatures are split between the two parties and Nebraska is nonpartisan. When the book is closed on the 2002 legislative redistricting election, 15 states had term-limit laws elections, Democrats will likely want to hide it on a on the books, but none had taken effect. Term limits high, out-of-the-way shelf to be forgotten. For Repub- are now in effect and forcing retirements in 11 states licans though, the story of last November’s elections and are on the books in 17 states. is a page-turner with a happy ending, destined for a In this election, term limits ousted a total of 322 prominent spot on the coffee table. In terms of total legislative incumbents. Arizona, Michigan and Mis- statehouse seats held by each party, Republicans souri were the states hit hardest by term limits, which nudged past the Democrats last fall for the first time for the first time affected members of both chambers in 50 years. The GOP also emerged holding control in Arizona and Missouri and the Michigan Senate. of 21 state legislatures — more than it has controlled The Michigan Senate lost a whopping 27 of its 38 in five decades. While the GOP enjoyed a good elec- members due to term limits, or 71 percent. More than tion night, there were some bright spots for Democrats half of the new Michigan senators will be familiar as well, and the final analysis shows that legislatures with the process because they are former House mem- are still very evenly divided and likely to stay that bers. New members filled 17 of Arizona’s 30 Senate way for the foreseeable future. seats (57 percent turnover) but as in Michigan, not By every measure, this was a big election year for all of them are strangers to the capitol. Twelve of the states. In addition to 36 gubernatorial races, elections new Arizona senators might be called “red shirt fresh- took place for more than 6,214 total legislative seats, men,” a term used in college sports for freshmen that or more than 85 percent of all seats in the 50 states. sit out to gain experience before starting their formal The total number of legislators to be elected was up athletic careers. Those 12 have all served previously slightly from the usual 80 percent because 2002 was in Arizona’s House. Almost half of Missouri House the first election following redistricting using the members could not run again because of term limits, 2000 census data. In a handful of states, such as Texas contributing to an overall turnover there of 90 new and Illinois, senators run on a staggered schedule, members, or 55 percent. with half or one-third of the body up for election every two years. Some of those states require that all Turnover members stand for election after redistricting, with Just as turnover peaked in the post-redistricting the result that elections in years ending in “2” are years of 1982 and 1992, it spiked up again in 2002 to the biggest in each decade. Forty-six states had regu- 26.3 percent in states that had regular elections. That lar legislative elections in 2002. States without elec- comes out to more than 1,750 freshman legislators tions included Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey taking the oath. Turnover in legislatures declined and Virginia, which conduct legislative elections in steadily for nearly two decades before leveling off odd numbered years. No regular senate elections were in the 1990s and hovering near 20 percent through- held in Kansas, New Mexico and South Carolina, out the decade. In states that held elections in 2000, only house races, so the total number of chambers overall election turnover was just over 17 percent. In holding elections last November was 89. 2002, turnover was 26.8 percent for lower chambers and 24.8 percent for senates. This overall turnover Effects of Term Limits data includes 43 legislative seats that were eliminated 2002 was the first year in which redistricting and completely by Rhode Island and North Dakota. Those term limits converged to affect legislative elections states reduced the size of their legislatures by 37 and and drive up turnover. In 1992, the most recent post- 6 seats respectively. The New York Senate expanded The Council of State Governments 81 ELECTIONS by one seat to 62. There are now 7,382 state legisla- 21, 2002, while Democrats held 3,642 seats. Inde- tive seats in the 50 states, not including the territories pendents and other third party members held 21 seats, and the District of Columbia. a mere 0.3 percent of the total. Going into Election Day 2002, turnover stood at The last time the GOP held more seats than the 21 percent based on retirements (voluntary as well Democrats was following the 1952 election, when as those forced by term limits) and primary defeats. Republicans commanded 51 percent of all seats (see The bulk of all seats that turned — roughly 84 per- Figure A). This election was only the third time in cent — were in the pre-election turnover category. the past 33 election cycles, going back to 1938, when Incumbents who lost in the general election account- the GOP emerged with more seats than Democrats. ed for only 16 percent of total turnover. Another way The previous Republican majority years were 1946 to look at it is that only 4 percent of all incumbents and 1952. lost their seat to an opponent of the opposite party. Even though the total number of seats held by each The top five states in lower house turnover were Mis- party is essentially tied, Republicans have a five-state souri, Arizona, Michigan, Maine and California; all advantage in overall control of legislatures. That is of them are term-limited states. The top senate turn- the biggest margin for the GOP since the 1952 elec- over states were Michigan, Arizona, New Hampshire, tion, when Republicans controlled 10 more state leg- Arkansas and South Dakota. islatures than the Democrats did. Republicans hold both the house and senate in 21 states, up from 17 GOP Gains Result in Parity before the election. That’s the most states the GOP When it comes to legislatures, 2002 will go down has held since the party claimed 26 legislatures in in history as the year the two major parties wound 1952. Democrats went from controlling 18 to 16 leg- up dead even. Legislative seats are now split 50-50. islatures. Partisan control is divided in 12 states, with Once Nebraska’s 49 nonpartisan senators and the 21 neither party having a majority in both legislative seats held by third parties are factored into the equa- chambers. In terms of chambers held by each party, tion, neither major political party controls more than Republicans now control 52, Democrats 43, and three 50 percent of the nation’s legislative seats. Republi- are tied. Figure B shows how evenly divided the cans hold 49.6 percent, and Democrats have 49.4 country’s legislatures were heading into 2003 sessions. percent, leaving exactly 1 percent in the “other” col- The margin of control also is extremely close in umn. It simply doesn’t get any closer. Although it is many chambers, making for some tenuous majori- always a bit of a moving target because of constant ties. In 22 of the nation’s legislative chambers, the vacancies and special elections, the total number of majority party held less than 55 percent of the seats Republican legislators stood at 3,667 on November after November’s elections. As is almost always the Figure A: Legislative Seats Held by Democrats and Republicans 1938-2002 6,000 5,000 4,000 Total LegislativeTotal Seats 3,000 2,000 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 Election Year Democratic Seats Republican Seats Note: Percentage calculation excludes nonpartisan elections in Minnesota (1938-74) and Nebraska (1938-2002) 82 The Book of the States 2003 ELECTIONS Figure B: 2003 Legislative Party Control Democratic Republican Split Nonpartisan case, a few chambers wound up tied. The New Jersey Missouri, a perennial bellwether state, followed Senate, North Carolina House and Oregon Senate have the national Republican trend. Taking advantage of the same number of Democrats and Republicans. A redistricting and opportunities provided by term lim- switch of merely one seat due to a vacancy would its, Republicans pulled in a remarkable 13 seats to change party control in the Colorado Senate, Indi- gain control of the Missouri House for the first time ana House, Maine Senate and the Washington Senate. since 1954. This follows Republican victories that gave the GOP control of the state Senate in 2001. Party Control Shifts Democrats still hold the Missouri governor’s office. The Colorado Senate switched back to Republi- On average, party control shifts in 12 chambers can control after two years with Democrats at the nationwide in every election cycle (see Figure C), helm, giving the GOP total control of Colorado state and the 2002 cycle exactly matched the average. government. Republicans have a narrow 18-17 ad- Twelve chambers shifted from one column to the vantage in Colorado’s Senate.