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Eral Details University of Alberta Modeling sea ice in Hudson Bay from a polar bear (Ursus maritimus) perspective by Laura Castro de la Guardia A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Earth and Atmospheric Sciences ©Laura Castro de la Guardia Fall 2012 Edmonton, Alberta Permission is hereby granted to the University of Alberta Libraries to reproduce single copies of this thesis and to lend or sell such copies for private, scholarly or scientific research purposes only. Where the thesis is converted to, or otherwise made available in digital form, the University of Alberta will advise potential users of the thesis of these terms. The author reserves all other publication and other rights in association with the copyright in the thesis and, except as herein before provided, neither the thesis nor any substantial portion thereof may be printed or otherwise reproduced in any material form whatsoever without the author's prior written permission. Abstract Sea ice concentration (SIC), the length of the ice-free period, and the break-up date are correlated with the survival and reproduction success of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in Western Hudson Bay (WH). I use a high-resolution sea ice-ocean model to predict these parameters through the 21st century and to assess the threat on polar bears in WH. The model was validated and calibrated with GPS-data from polar bears in WH. Predictions are based on the IPCC greenhouse gas-emission scenarios: B1, A1B and A2. The model predicted significant changes in WH spring SIC in A1B and A2, and in the seasonal ice cycle in B1, A1B and A2. From 2061-2100, the mean break-up date advances 15.7 days (B1), 31.5 days (A1B), and 46 days (A2), and the mean ice-free period lengthens by 4.5 weeks (B1), 8.4 weeks (A1B), and 12.5 weeks (A2). Should the model projections be realized, a viable population of polar bears will not likely persist in WH until the end of this century. Acknowledgments A large part of my gratitude is to my supervisors Paul Myers and Andrew Derocher, for their guidance, patience, funding, and encouragements. Also to Arjen Terwisscha van Scheltinga for his assistance with the sea ice-ocean model, and Matlab-coding, and to Nick Lunn from Environment Canada, for assisting in the polar bear data collection and his tutorship during field-trip and in posters and abstracts presentations. Big big thanks to my parents (Elena de la Guardia & Rafael Castro) who help me with their guidance and also funding, and to all my family and friends, in Cuba and Canada, that even from a distance where able to transmit the feeling of support, encouraging, and love: Lourdes, Emma, Ele, Ruth, Lazaro, Tere, Cristy, Ayla, Tani, Lisi, Anu, Alo, Lily, Mario, Mayito, Erne, Carmen, Ale, Lina, Alia, Dany and Rafy and others. A special gratitude and thanks to friends like: Julian Beaudry who spent many hours proofed-reading the thesis and all other assignments during the Master’s degree, Jean-Baptiste Tary, who helped in the editing of the final versions of the thesis, and Qian Duanni, for her company during late hours and weekends while writing in our office: thank you for keeping the office’s light ON! Other friends who also made a difference are Xianmin Hu, Anna Katavouta, Veluthedath Kuzhiyil Praveen, Qiang Wang, Veronique Lago, Colin More, from the physics department, and Stephen Hamilton, Barry Robinson, Marie Auger- Methe, Nick Pilfold, Alysa McCall, Evan Richardson, Pat Mislan, Vicki Sahanatien, from the biology department. They all helped in many ways to shape the final version of this thesis. Lastly, I will like to recognize the institutions and associations that contributed to found this project: EnviroNorth, ArcticNet, International Association for Impact Assessment-Western and Northern Canada, Environement Canada, Polar Bears International, WWF Canada, Quark Expeditions, and NSERC, and the University of Alberta through the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, the Faculty of Graduate Studies (FGSR): J Gordin Kaplan Graduate Student Award, the Graduate Students Association (GSR): Professional Development Grant, and the Institute for Geophysical Research (IGR): Hibb’s Student Conference Travel Award. I am thankful to all for making this journey an enjoyable and exciting learning experience. TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1 1.1 On the importance of sea ice ............................................................................... 1 1.2 Polar bears and climate change in WH ............................................................... 5 1.3 Thesis objectives ................................................................................................. 9 1.4 Previous modeling studies in HB ................................................................... 10 1.5 Hudson Bay physical environment ................................................................... 13 1.5.1 Bay bathymetry and ocean circulation ..................................................... 14 1.5.2 Wind forcing .............................................................................................. 15 1.5.3 Sea ice cycle .............................................................................................. 16 1.5.4 Freshwater input ....................................................................................... 18 1.6 Dissertation outline. .......................................................................................... 20 1.7 References ......................................................................................................... 24 Chapter 2 . Polar bear-GPS-telemetry data as a tool to calibrate and validate a sea ice model in Hudson-Bay. ...................................................................................................... 36 2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 36 2.2 Methods ............................................................................................................. 39 2.2.1 Study area ................................................................................................. 39 2.2.2 Model details ............................................................................................. 40 2.2.3 Initialization and forcing data .................................................................. 42 2.2.4 Satellite-derived SIC fields ........................................................................ 43 2.2.5 Polar bear GPS telemetry data ................................................................. 45 2.2.6 Data analysis............................................................................................. 46 2.3 Results ............................................................................................................... 49 2.4 Discussion ......................................................................................................... 52 2.5 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 58 2.6 References ......................................................................................................... 73 Chapter 3 Predicting sea ice dynamics in Hudson Bay and impacts on polar bears. ........ 86 3.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 86 3.2 Methods ............................................................................................................. 90 3.2.1 Study area ................................................................................................. 90 3.2.2 Model description ..................................................................................... 91 3.2.3 Initialization and forcing data .................................................................. 93 3.2.4 Data processing and analysis ................................................................... 95 3.3 Results ............................................................................................................... 97 3.3.1 Effect of atmospheric forcing on model SIC results .................................. 97 3.3.2 21st Century Spring SIC in HB .................................................................. 98 3.3.3 21st Century seasonal ice cycle in WH ...................................................... 99 3.4 Discussion ....................................................................................................... 101 3.5 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 105 3.6 References ....................................................................................................... 119 Chapter 4 . Conclusions ................................................................................................... 127 Appendix 1. Model description ....................................................................................... 131 A. General details..................................................................................................... 131 B. Model Dynamics ................................................................................................. 132 C. Model thermodynamics ......................................................................................
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