Bitcoin Reveals Exchange Rate Manipulation and Detects Capital Controls G.C. Pieters∗ Trinity University, Economics Dept, 1 Trinity Place, San Antonio, Texas, 78212. Abstract Many countries manipulate the value of their currency or use some form of capital control, yet the data usually used to detect these manipulations are low frequency, expensive, lagged, and potentially mis-measured. I demonstrate that the price data of the internationally traded cryptocurrency Bitcoin can approximate unofficial exchange rates which, in turn, can be used to detect both the existence and the magnitude of the distortion caused by capital controls and exchange rate manipulations. However, I document that bitcoin exchange rates contain problematic bitcoin-market-specific elements and must be adjusted before being used for this purpose. As bitcoin exchange rates exist at a daily frequency, they reveal transitory interventions that would otherwise go undetected. This result also serves as verification that Bitcoin is used to circumvent capital controls and manipulated exchange rates. Keywords: Bitcoin; Exchange Rates; Black Market; Unofficial; Financial Integration; Capital Controls JEL Codes: F30, F31, F38, E42, G15, O17 ∗Corresponding author Email address:
[email protected] ( G.C. Pieters) 1I am grateful for helpful comments and suggestions from Christoffer Koch and participants at the 2016 International Trade and Finance Association Conference and 2017 Liberal Arts Macroeconomics Workshop. 1. INTRODUCTION This paper is a contribution to timely, high-frequency, accurate measurement of unofficial exchange rates, de facto exchange rate regimes, and de facto capital controls. While policies that result in manipulated exchange rates|such as capital controls|may seem like a problem that distorts the trade and finance flows of only a few countries, Calvo and Reinhart(2002) found that governments display fear of floating: officially declaring they allow their exchange rates to float (a de jure floating regime), while still actively manipulating their exchange rates (a de facto managed regime).