New ground ice maps for Canada using a paleogeographic modelling approach 5 H. Brendan O’Neill1, Stephen A. Wolfe1, Caroline Duchesne1 1Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, 601 Booth St. Ottawa, Canada Correspondence to: H. Brendan O’Neill:
[email protected] The works published in this journal are distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. This licence does not affect the Crown copyright work, which is re-usable under the Open Government Licence (OGL). The Creative Commons 10 Attribution 4.0 License and the OGL are interoperable and do not conflict with, reduce or limit each other. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2018 1 Abstract Ground ice melt caused by climate-induced permafrost degradation may trigger significant ecological change, damage infrastructure, and alter biogeochemical cycles. The fundamental ground ice mapping for Canada is now >20 years old, and does not include significant new insights gained from recent field and remote sensing based studies. New modelling 5 incorporating paleogeography is presented in this paper to depict the distribution of three ground ice types (massive ice and icy sediments, segregated ice, and wedge ice) in northern Canada. The modelling uses an expert-system approach in a geographic information system (GIS), founded in conceptual principles gained from empirically-based research, to predict ground ice abundance in near-surface permafrost. Datasets of surficial geology, deglaciation, paleovegetation, glacial lake and marine limits, and modern permafrost distribution allow representations in the models of paleoclimatic shifts, tree line 10 migration, marine and glacial lake inundation, and terrestrial emergence, and their effect on ground ice abundance.