FINAL REPORT an Analysis of Biomass Burning Impacts on Texas
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131 Hartwell Avenue Lexington, Massachusetts 02421-3126 USA Tel: +1 781 761-2288 Fax: +1 781 761-2299 www.aer.com FINAL REPORT An Analysis of Biomass Burning Impacts on Texas TCEQ Contract No. 582-15-50414 Work Order No. 582-16-62311-03 Revision 2.0 Prepared by: Matthew Alvarado, Christopher Brodowski, and Chantelle Lonsdale Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER) 131 Hartwell Ave. Lexington, MA 02466 Correspondence to: [email protected] Prepared for: Erik Gribbin Texas Commission on Environmental Quality Air Quality Division Building E, Room 342S Austin, TX 78711-3087 June 30, 2016 Work Order No. 582-16-62311-03 Final Report Document Change Record Revision Revision Date Remarks 0.1 08 June 2016 Internal Version for Review 1.0 10 June 2016 Draft Version Submitted to TCEQ for Review 2.0 30 June 2016 Final Report Submitted to TCEQ 2 Work Order No. 582-16-62311-03 Final Report TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... 8 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 10 1.1 Project Objectives .........................................................................................................................10 1.2 Background .....................................................................................................................................10 1.3 Report Outline ...............................................................................................................................11 2 Task 2: Development of the STILT-ASP Model into a Wildfire Analysis Tool ... 13 2.1 Source Code Updates ...................................................................................................................13 2.2 GUI and Windows Compatibility .............................................................................................15 3 Task 3: Analysis of 2011 Smoke Events ......................................................................... 17 3.1 Austin/Round Rock Sept. 7th and 8th Event .........................................................................17 3.2 STILT-ASP Simulation of the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria August 26th Event .......25 4 Quality Assurance Steps and Reconciliation with User Requirements .............. 31 4.1 Task 2: Development of STILT-ASP Model into a Wildfire Analysis Tool .................31 4.2 Task 3: Analysis of 2011 Smoke Events ................................................................................32 5 Conclusions .............................................................................................................................. 33 6 Recommendations for Further Study ............................................................................. 34 7 References ................................................................................................................................ 35 3 Work Order No. 582-16-62311-03 Final Report List of Figures FIGURE 1. MODIS AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTH (AOD) OBSERVATIONS ON SEPTEMBER 7TH, 2011 WITH THE STILT BACK- TRAJECTORIES (GENERATED WITH NARR METEOROLOGY) FOR THE 13:00 CST SEPTEMBER 7TH AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK CAMS 614 RUN OVER-PLOTTED AS BLACK CIRCLES FOR EACH 15 MINUTE TIME STEP. THE LOCATION OF BASTROP, TX IS SHOWN AS A BLACK STAR. ...................................................................................................................................................................... 24 FIGURE 2. MODIS AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTH (AOD) OBSERVATIONS ON SEPTEMBER 8TH, 2011 WITH 25 STILT BACK- TRAJECTORIES (GENERATED WITH NARR METEOROLOGY) FOR THE 13:00 CST SEPTEMBER 7TH AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK CAMS 601 RUN OVER-PLOTTED AS BLACK CIRCLES FOR EACH 15 MINUTE TIME STEP. THE LOCATION OF BASTROP, TX IS SHOWN AS A BLACK STAR. ...................................................................................................................................................................... 25 FIGURE 3. MODIS AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTH (AOD) OBSERVATIONS ON AUGUST 26, 2011 WITH 25 STILT BACK- TRAJECTORIES (GENERATED WITH NARR METEOROLOGY) FOR THE 13:00 CST AUGUST 26TH HOUSTON CAMS 1 RUN OVER-PLOTTED IN BLACK....................................................................................................................................................................... 29 FIGURE 4. MERRA TOTAL COLUMN OZONE OBSERVATIONS ON AUGUST 26, 2011 WITH 25 STILT BACK-TRAJECTORIES (GENERATED WITH NARR METEOROLOGY) FOR THE 13:00 CST AUGUST 26TH HOUSTON CAMS 1 RUN OVER-PLOTTED IN BLACK. .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 30 4 Work Order No. 582-16-62311-03 Final Report List of Tables TABLE 1. PROJECTED SCHEDULE FOR TCEQ WORK ORDER NO. 582-16-62311-03 ........................................................................ 10 TH TABLE 2. OBSERVED AND MODELED (ALL EMISSIONS) CONCENTRATIONS OF O3, NOX, AND CO DURING THE SEPTEMBER 7 FIRE EVENT AT THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK CAMS 614 SITE. ................................................................................................................ 20 TABLE 3. OBSERVED AND MODELED (NON-FIRE EMISSIONS ONLY) CONCENTRATIONS OF O3, NOX, AND CO DURING THE TH SEPTEMBER 7 FIRE EVENT AT THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK CAMS 614 SITE. .......................................................................... 20 TH TABLE 4. MODELED (ALL EMISSIONS) CONCENTRATIONS OF OA, BC, AND PM2.5 DURING THE SEPTEMBER 7 FIRE EVENT AT THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK CAMS 614 SITE. ................................................................................................................................... 21 TH TABLE 5. MODELED (NON-FIRE EMISSIONS ONLY) CONCENTRATIONS OF OA, BC, AND PM2.5 DURING THE SEPTEMBER 7 FIRE EVENT AT THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK CAMS 614 SITE. ................................................................................................................ 21 TH TABLE 6. OBSERVED AND MODELED (ALL EMISSIONS) CONCENTRATIONS OF O3, NOX, AND CO DURING THE SEPTEMBER 8 FIRE EVENT AT THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK CAMS 601 SITE. NA – NOT AVAILABLE. ........................................................................ 22 TABLE 7. OBSERVED AND MODELED (NON-FIRE EMISSIONS ONLY) CONCENTRATIONS OF O3, NOX, AND CO DURING THE TH SEPTEMBER 8 FIRE EVENT AT THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK CAMS 601 SITE. NA – NOT AVAILABLE. ................................. 22 TH TABLE 8. MODELED (ALL EMISSIONS) CONCENTRATIONS OF OA, BC, AND PM2.5 DURING THE SEPTEMBER 8 FIRE EVENT AT THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK CAMS 601 SITE. ................................................................................................................................... 23 TH TABLE 9. MODELED (NON-FIRE EMISSIONS ONLY) CONCENTRATIONS OF OA, BC, AND PM2.5 DURING THE SEPTEMBER 8 FIRE EVENT AT THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK CAMS 601 SITE. ................................................................................................................ 23 TH TABLE 10. OBSERVED AND MODELED (ALL EMISSIONS) CONCENTRATIONS OF O3, NOX, AND CO DURING THE AUGUST 26 FIRE EVENT AT THE HOUSTON-GALVESTON-BRAZORIA CAMS 1 SITE. ................................................................................................. 27 TABLE 11. OBSERVED AND MODELED (NON-FIRE EMISSIONS ONLY) CONCENTRATIONS OF O3, NOX, AND CO DURING THE AUGUST 26TH FIRE EVENT AT THE HOUSTON-GALVESTON-BRAZORIA CAMS 1 SITE. ............................................................................... 27 TABLE 12. OBSERVED AND MODELED (ALL EMISSIONS) CONCENTRATIONS OF OA, BC, AND PM2.5 DURING THE AUGUST 26TH FIRE EVENT AT THE HOUSTON-GALVESTON-BRAZORIA CAMS 1 SITE. QA – DATA FAILED QUALITY CHECKS. ..................... 28 TABLE 13. OBSERVED AND MODELED (NON-FIRE EMISSIONS ONLY) CONCENTRATIONS OF OA, BC, AND PM2 DURING THE AUGUST 26TH FIRE EVENT AT THE HOUSTON-GALVESTON-BRAZORIA CAMS 1 SITE. QA – DATA FAILED QUALITY CHECKS. ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 5 Work Order No. 582-16-62311-03 Final Report List of Acronyms AER – Atmospheric and Environmental Research AOD – Aerosol Optical Depth ARL – Air Resources Laboratory ASP – Aerosol Simulation Program BEIS – Biogenic Emission Inventory System CAMS – Continuous Ambient Monitoring Station CB05 – Carbon Bond mechanism version 5 CST – Central Standard Time CSV – Comma Separated Value DISCOVER-AQ – Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality FINN – Fire INventory from NCAR GAM – Generalized Additive Model GB – GigaByte GFED – Global Fire Emissions Database GUI – Graphical User Interface HTAP – Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution HYSPLIT – Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model IOAPI – Input/Output Applications Programming Interface MDA8 – Maximum Daily 8-hour Average MEGAN – Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature MERRA – Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications MODIS – Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MOZART – Model for OZone and Related chemical Tracers NAAQS – National Ambient Air Quality Standards NAM – North American Mesoscale forecast system NARR – North American Regional Reanalysis NASA – National