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Grantee Institution: U.S. Geological Survey CSP Project Number: SCI-05-C01-84 Semiannual Report #4, Page 1 of 41 Computational Assessments of Scenarios of Change in the Delta Ecosystem CALFED Science Program Project SCI-05-C01-84 Semiannual Project Report Report No. 4: September 1, 2007 – February 29, 2008 CONTRACTOR/GRANT RECIPIENT CONTACT INFORMATION Program Administrator NAME: Michael D. Ellis INSTITUTION: U.S. Geological Survey ADDRESS: 345 Middlefield Rd. MS 466, Menlo Park, CA 94025 PHONE: 650-329-4521 EMAIL: [email protected] Principal Investigator/Lead Principal Investigator NAME: James E. Cloern INSTITUTION: U.S. Geological Survey ADDRESS: 345 Middlefield Rd. MS 496, Menlo Park, CA 94025 PHONE: 650-329-4594 EMAIL: [email protected] GRANTING PROGRAM CONTACT INFORMATION Technical Contact NAME: Michelle Shouse TITLE: USGS Coordinator AGENCY: California Bay Delta Authority th ADDRESS: 650 Capitol Mall, 5 Floor, Sacramento, California 95814 PHONE: 916-445-0641 EMAIL: [email protected] Contract/Administrative Contact NAME: N/A TITLE: AGENCY: California Bay Delta Authority th ADDRESS: 650 Capitol Mall, 5 Floor, Sacramento, California 95814 PHONE: E-MAIL: Grantee Institution: U.S. Geological Survey CSP Project Number: SCI-05-C01-84 Semiannual Report #4, Page 2 of 41 Funding Source: BOR Reimbursible funds through USGS Project Location: U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA Brief Description of Project: This project constitutes a model-based approach for developing a long view of the Bay-Delta-River-Watershed system. The long view is developed through simulations with linked models to project changes under a range of plausible scenarios of climate change, Delta configurational changes, and land- use/population change. Elements of the Bay-Delta River-Watershed system addressed by this project are: 1 Climate Modeling and Downscaling 2 Sacramento-San Joaquin Watershed and San Francisco Bay Modeling 3 Delta Modeling: Hydrodynamics with Temperature and Phytoplankton 4 Sediment, Geomorphology and Tidal-Habitat Modeling 5 Fate and Effects of Selenium, Mercury, Silver and Cadmium 6 Invasive Species– Potamocorbula, Corbicula, and Egeria 7 Native and Alien Fish Population Trends The cascading effects of changes under these scenarios will be followed as they propagate through these elements, from the climate system to watersheds to river networks to the Delta and San Francisco Bay. BUDGET SUMMARY (All tasks should exactly match those identified in the project Scope of Work.) Projected % Complete Amount Invoiced Amount Invoiced to Expenditures Task # (by dollars) (Current Fiscal Year) Date (All Years) next 6 months 1 10% $0.00 $25,107.00 30000 2 57% $0.00 $224,369.00 82000 3 69% $0.00 $162,554.00 33000 4 67% $0.00 $213,307.00 92000 5 56% $0.00 $44,846.00 10000 6 9% $0.00 $6,439.00 20000 7 27% $0.00 $67,970.00 15000 8 6% $0.00 $2,515.00 3500 PROJECT STATUS OVERVIEW Status, in brief, of individual tasks (detailed reports follow): September 2007 through February 2008 Task 1: ACHIEVED OBJECTIVES, FINDINGS, AND CONTRIBUTIONS: Have now downscaled historical observations (for validation use), and simulated historical and 21st Century temperature and precipitation fields from two global climate models. Final revisions are being made. Grantee Institution: U.S. Geological Survey CSP Project Number: SCI-05-C01-84 Semiannual Report #4, Page 3 of 41 Documentation of downscaling method recently published as http://www.energy.ca.gov/2007publications/CEC- 500-2007-123/CEC-500-2007-123.PDF Also, Cayan has produced a set of projections of sea level rise for the San Francisco Fort Point tide gage site for the 21st Century using the Rahmstorf scheme. Cayan is working with Knowles to investigate how sea level fluctuations propagate into Bay and Delta. Cayan delivered an overview of CASCADE to the State of the Estuary Conference in October 2007. PROBLEMS OR DELAYS ENCOUNTERED: Discovered some localized timing issues in the beta version of downscaled climate fields, several days of missing historical data in the observations files, and a tendency for daily temperature ranges to be too large or small as the downscaling method was initially deployed. Corrections to all of these problems have been developed and are in final stages of being implemented (grinding out the final numbers). Regarding sea level rise, determination of water level fluctuations in the upper Bay and Delta is rather complex and is requiring an extensive investigation of observed historical water levels in the Bay/Delta. This work has begun but will require a few months to produce a credible analysis. DELIVERABLES PRODUCED: Beta versions of temperature and precipitation fields, Fall 2007. Cayan, D.R., E.P. Maurer, M.D. Dettinger, M. Tyree, K. Hayhoe, 2008: Climate change scenarios for the California Region. Climatic Change. 26 January 2008 Online Cayan, D.R., P.D. Bromirski, K. Hayhoe, M. Tyree, M.D. Dettinger, R.E. Flick, 2008: Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California Coast. Climatic Change. 26 January 2008 Online. Cayan, D.R., A.L. Luers, G. Franco, M. Hanemann, B.Croes, E. Vine, 2008: Overview of the California climate change scenarios project. Climatic Change. 26 January 2008 Online. Task 2: ACHIEVED OBJECTIVES, FINDINGS, AND CONTRIBUTIONS: To achieve CASCaDE goals, a new approach to applying CALSIM was developed which may also eventually be employed by DWR. PROBLEMS OR DELAYS ENCOUNTERED: Disaggregating the monthly flow data to daily at the downstream end of the watershed continues to challenge, but work is ongoing. DELIVERABLES PRODUCED: monthly CALSIM output for 1st 100-year scenario Task 3: ACHIEVED OBJECTIVES, FINDINGS, AND CONTRIBUTIONS: Hydrodynamics: A new bathymetric grid for the entire Delta region is completed. This grid incorporates improved representation of the channels based on a bathymetric database created by Richard Smith, USGS. The grid also represents levee heights throughout the Delta. These improvements were necessary to study sea level rise throughout the Delta. We are currently calibrating and verfying the model using this new grid. Phytoplankton: A novel approach (using stable isotopes measured in clams) has been explored as a tool for validating modeled mixtures of phytoplankton populations emanating from four sources (Sacramento, San Grantee Institution: U.S. Geological Survey CSP Project Number: SCI-05-C01-84 Semiannual Report #4, Page 4 of 41 Joaquin, Bay, initial condition Delta). A manuscript describing a conceptual model which explains the range of phytoplankton-transport time relationships observed in nature is near-submission ready. Temperature: UC/Berkely worked on a statisical analysis of water temperature in the Delta based on historical data throughout the Delta. Based on daily averages and maximum temperatures, air temperature and water temperature are highly coorelated throughout the Delta with an exception near the temporary barriers. The slope of the correlation varies spatially. There are three distinct regions: Sacramento influenced, bay influenced, and San Joaquin influenced areas. PROBLEMS OR DELAYS ENCOUNTERED: Hydrodynamics: N. Monsen, the principal Delta hydrodynamic modeler, took a leave of absense from this project October 24, 2007-January 11, 2008 because of a family medical emergency. DELIVERABLES PRODUCED: Phytoplankton: • L. Lucas presented a talk entitled “Modeling Phytoplankton Dynamics to Understand Sources and Losses in a Complex Tidal Low-Productivity System” by Lucas, Monsen, Stewart & Cloern at the Biennial Conference of the Estuarine Research Federation in Providence, RI (November 2007) • Invited by the CALFED Bay-Delta Program, L. Lucas participated in a Delta Vision Eco-Design Brainstorming Session, in support of the development of a Delta Ecosystem Vision Statement to be presented to Governor Schwarzenegger’s Delta Vision Blue Ribbon Task Force (October 2007) • L. Lucas and co-authors received the Estuarine Research Federation’s Pritchard Award, for the best geophysics paper published in the journal Estuaries and Coasts during the previous 2 years. The award winning manuscript entitled “Intra-daily variability of water quality in a shallow tidal lagoon: Mechanisms and implications” (2006) by Lucas, L. V., D. M. Sereno, J. R. Burau, T. S. Schraga, C. B. Lopez, M. T. Stacey, K. V. Parchevsky, and V. P. Parchevsky (Estuaries and Coasts 29(5), 711-730) describes the results of a previous CALFED funded study (http://estuariesandcoasts.org/cgi- bin/est/printabstract.cgi?ESTU2006_29_5_711_730) (November 2007) • The 2006 manuscript by Lucas et al. was summarized in ERF’s “Coastal and Estuarine Science News”, an electronic newsletter for coastal managers emphasizing management implications of scientific findings (see http://www.erf.org/cesn/vol29n5.html#2). Task 4: ACHIEVED OBJECTIVES, FINDINGS, AND CONTRIBUTIONS: We have completed hindcast modeling of the 1887-1922 and 1922-1942 periods, for Suisun Bay. We have found that model parameters (such as Delta configuration and sediment characteristics), vary with time. While agreement with net erosion measurements is relatively easy to modulate (by adjusting sediment parameters), spatial agreement is variable. Maximum spatial agreement was achieved during the 1942-1990 period, while minimum spatial agreement was achieved for the 1922-1942 period. Also, completion of water level calibrations of the Delft3D model for use in hindcasting the bathymetric evolution of San Pablo Bay. Initial 3D runs for San Pablo Bay using two grain sizes were also completed.
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