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Ageing in Malaysia

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Ageing in Malaysia Session 3: Using Different Measures of Ageing: Country Case Studies, 25 February 2019, Expert Group Meeting on Measuring Population Ageing: Bridging Research and Policy, 25 ‐ 26 February 2019, Mandarin Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand Ageing in Malaysia Prof. Dato’ Dr. Tengku Aizan HAMID, DPSK [email protected] Director Malaysian Research Institute on Ageing (MyAgeingTM), Universiti Putra Malaysia Content • Introduction (TFR, Longevity, Inter‐state Migration) • Population Ageing in Malaysia • Policy & Population Issues • Conclusion [email protected] Geography of Malaysia • Malaysia is an upper‐middle income country with a GDP of USD 296.4 billion in 2015. Its Gross National Income (GNI) per capita ranks 3rd in Southeast Asia after Brunei and Singapore, and 44th in the world (World Bank, 2017). It is also the 44th most populous country in the world and ranks 66th globally in terms of country total area (330,603 km2). [email protected] [email protected] Malaysia at a Glance, Census 2010 & 2020 2010 2020 Population 27.5 million 33.8 million Living Quarters 7.3 million 9.9 million Households 6.4 million 8.2 million Household Size 4.2 persons 4.1 persons Administrative District 144 AD 157 AD Census District 812 CD 1,036 CD Enumeration Block 74,756 EB 103,524 EB Source: DOSM, 2018 Total Fertility Rate by Ethnicity, Malaysia, 1963 ‐ 2016 8.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.0 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.3 Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.0 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Total Bumiputera Chinese Indian © MyAgeing TM • People are living longer Increasing Longevity and Malaysians on average have a life Life Expectancy at Birth and at 60 Years by Ethnicity, Malaysia, 1991 - 2015 expectancy level that is similar to other upper 2015 Life 1991 2000 2010 middle‐income (Estimated) countries. Expectancy Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female • Economic growth and At birth public health Total 69.2 73.4 70.0 74.7 71.9 76.6 72.5 77.4 development has Malay* 68.8 71.9 69.0 73.3 70.7 75.4 71.2 76.1 increased likelihood of Chinese 70.7 76.4 72.4 77.6 74.4 79.1 75.1 80.1 persons surviving into Indian 64.2 71.4 65.7 73.5 67.6 75.7 67.7 75.8 later life. At 60 years • An older person aged 60 Total 16.1 18.1 16.7 19.0 17.9 20.1 18.4 20.9 years old in 2015 can Malay* 15.7 16.9 15.9 17.8 17.1 19.4 17.6 20.0 reasonably expect to Chinese 16.8 20.2 18.1 21.1 19.1 21.7 19.9 22.8 live for another 17 to 23 14.2 17.6 15.2 19.1 16.9 19.8 17.5 20.1 years, depending on Indian their gender or * Including other Bumiputera ethnicity. Source: Department of Statistics (1997; 2002; 2015) [email protected] 5‐year Inter‐state Net Migrants by State, Malaysia, 1980 ‐ 2010 Source: NPFDB, 1999, DOSM, 1995, 2006, 2014, 2017 100200250 236.9 91.6 220.4 155.3 63.6 150200 50 44.2 150 100 100 0.5 2 500 19.3 ‐0.3 ‐1.4 ‐0.1 50 ‐7.4 19.2 ‐12.8 1.8 19.93.3 9.5 17.8 13.6 0 ‐19.2 2.9‐19.4 7.3 6.7 3.1 0.2 0 ‐5.3 ‐2.3 ‐2.5 ‐1.1 ‐3.5 ‐5.5 ‐50 ‐41 ‐1‐13.9 ‐2.1‐10 ‐2.9 ‐2.9 ‐11.8 Number in Thousands (‘000) Number in Thousands (‘000) Number in Thousands (‘000) Number in Thousands (‘000) ‐12.3 ‐14.4 ‐12.1 ‐50 ‐28.7 ‐21.8 ‐21 ‐24 ‐17 ‐50 ‐37.7 ‐35.9 ‐41.6 ‐71.1 ‐51.1 ‐58.8 ‐50.9‐70.2 ‐85.4 ‐94.2 ‐100 Perlis Perlis PerlisPerlis Johor JohorJohor Johor Perak Perak PerakPerak Sabah Sabah SabahSabah Kedah KedahKedah Kedah Melaka Melaka Melaka Melaka Pahang Pahang PahangPahang Sarawak Sarawak SarawakSarawak Selangor Selangor SelangorSelangor Kelantan Kelantan KelantanKelantan WP Labuan WP LabuanWP Labuan Terengganu Terengganu TerengganuTerengganu Pulau Pinang 2005 ‐1986 ‐1995 ‐1975 ‐ 20101991 20001980 Pulau Pinang Pulau PinangPulau Pinang WP Putrajaya Negeri Sembilan Negeri Sembilan Negeri SembilanNegeri Sembilan WP Kuala Lumpur WP Kuala Lumpur WP Kuala LumpurWP Kuala Lumpur Population Ageing in Malaysia Age, Sex, Ethnic & Geographical Differences Source: United Nations, DESA, Population Division. WPP: The 2015 Revision. (Medium variant) • With the fertility and longevity patterns shown Changing Age Structure earlier, it comes as no Population in Malaysia by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2005 & 2015 surprise that the 2005 2015 Malaysian Chinese are Ethnicity 0-14 15-59 60+ 0-14 15-59 60+ ageing faster than other Number (in Thousands) ‘000 ethnic groups. Malay & Bumiputera 5,553.5 9,416.4 977.3 5,625.9 10,808.3 1,242.8 • 1 out of 12 Malaysians are Chinese 1,551.9 3,953.8 621.6 1,451.5 4,201.0 778.0 an older person in 2015. Indian 524.0 1,181.4 114.0 495.9 1,278.6 150.4 Others 115.5 148.7 13.1 94.3 126.5 11.4 • By 2020, it is expected Malaysian 7,744.9 14,700.3 1,726.0 7,667.6 16,414.2 2,182.4 that the number of older Non-Malaysian 294.4 1,530.6 49.0 154.5 2,103.7 66.2 persons will increase to Total 8,039.5 16,230.8 1,775.5 7,822.1 18,518.1 2,248.6 3.3 million, making up Percent about 11% of the total Malay & Bumiputera 34.8 59.1 6.1 31.8 61.1 7.0 population then. Chinese 25.3 64.5 10.1 22.6 65.3 12.1 2035 60+ population reaches 15% Indian 28.8 64.9 6.3 25.8 66.4 7.8 2020 65+ population reaches 7% Others 41.7 53.6 4.7 40.6 54.5 4.9 2020 Median age reaches 30 years old Malaysian 32.0 60.8 7.1 29.2 62.5 8.3 2042 Proportion of 60+ exceeds proportion of <15 Non-Malaysian 15.7 81.7 2.6 6.7 90.5 2.9 2017 Peak of proportion of 15‐59 Total 30.9 62.3 6.8 27.4 64.8 7.9 age group at 65.6% Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2014; 2015 Older Population (60+) in Malaysia, 1970 ‐ 2040 9000 25 Between 2020 and 2046, Malaysia’s 65+ population will double from 7% to 14% 8000 19.8 1 million 2 million 3 million 4 million 5 million 19.3 20 7000 18.8 18.3 17.9 17.4 17.0 16.6 16.1 6000 15.7 60+ 15.3 14.9 14.4 15 %60+ 14.0 13.6 5000 13.2 12.8 12.3 Source: Author’s Tabulation 11.9 11.5 11.1 www.data.gov.my (DOSM, 2017) & DOSM, 2016 10.7 4000 10.3 9.9 Percent (%) 9.6 9.2 10 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.1 7.9 7.6 3000 7.4 7.2 6.8 7.0 Number in Thousands (‘000) 6.6 6.7 6.3 6.4 6.1 6.2 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 2000 5 1000 0 0 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Year Sex and Ethnic Differences, 2018 Life Expectancy Average Older Persons (60+) at Birth LIFE EXPECTANCY Ethnicity n (‘000) % Male Female Malays & Other Bumi. 1,879.0 9.2 71.4 76.2 Chinese 1,104.1 16.1 75.0 80.2 77.4At birth 72.7 Indian 244.3 11.7 67.8 76.3 Others 17.7 5.7 76.2 77.5 21.0 At 60 18.4 Non-Malaysian 143.7 4.5 n/a n/a Source: Abridged Life Tables, Malaysia, 2017 (DOSM, 2018) Total 60+ 3,388.6 10.3 72.7 77.4 Source: DOSM, 2016;2018 Comparison of 2000 & 2010 Censuses, Malaysia • Selangor has the largest population of older persons aged 60 years or over in 2010 but it is still a relatively young state.
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