C2 THE SUN, SATURDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2004 OBSERVER The region’s duelling futures: Untrammelled, Compact development or urban sprawl? THE FUTURE ’s options What the consequences are. sprawling growth MetroQuest, a soft- Population distribution 2041 ware package or an orderly, IS BAD developed at the University of B.C. and marketed by a planned vision: Vancouver soft- More cars, more ware company, pre- dicts Greater Van- It’s our choice couver will become suburbs, bad air a huge conglomer- reater Vancouver may be on its way to ate of sprawling becoming a sprawling, polluted area suburbs by 2041 if Gwith much of the region’s farmland and current develop- green space turned into paved suburbs, roads ment patterns con- The top map shows the development pattern predicted by the Metro- jammed with angry commuters, the air foul tinue. But if the Quest software if the region follows sustainable principles. The bottom and the economy stagnant. region can follow map shows the likely result if development continues unrestrained. It’s a risk we face if we make the wrong "sustainable" prin- decisions as the region’s population grows by ciples such as Population distribution 2041 a million over the next three decades. compact develop- And it is the direction we are currently headed in, says Dave Biggs, co-founder of ment in town cen- WILLIAM BOEI Vancouver software company Envision Sus- tres and along VANCOUVER SUN tainability Tools. rapid transit corri- Envision is marketing MetroQuest, a real- dors, it can pre- world version of the Sim City computer game, serve most of the in which players try to build a viable city. farm and natural ere’s how you charm a wary Vancou- MetroQuest generates future development land we have now verite, according to Dave Matychuk. scenarios based on policy choices, and Biggs and maintain work- You tell him, “You know, this is the said they show we are headed towards deteri- able transportation Hmost beautiful city in the world,” and orating air quality, diminishing green space, systems. the Vancouverite sighs, “Aah.” and higher taxes and cost of living. “But, it’s too expensive,” you say, and the Van- Single-occupant vehicles are increasingly couverite goes, “Mmh.” the region’s dominant transportation choice, WEST NORTH Black and Orange and “But, it’s worth it,” you add. which encourages people to live farther away VANCOUVER VANCOUVER brown: high den- yellow: low den- “And then you’ve got him. I’ve been using that from work, shopping and schools. sity urban areas sity suburbs for years.” That means more suburbs, less agricultural VANCOUVER NEW PITT MEADOWS Red: Medium Green and grey: Matychuk lives in Surrey but makes his living WEST. MAPLE density commu- farm and natural and natural land, more roads, longer driving RICHMOND RIDGE in Vancouver, and so he straddles the region’s nities. land distances, less efficient transit, and more traf- DELTA SURREY two solitudes — the lovely, somewhat insecure fic congestion. downtown peninsula, and the sprawling, often Suburban municipalities that lack large WHITE maligned southeastern suburb. commercial and industrial tax bases will have ROCK “They desperately want it to be a big town, trouble paying for the roads, and that means but it’s not,” he says of Vancouverites. “They’ll higher taxes or reduced services. Biggs said get all bent out of shape if you call it No Fun some U.S. suburbs are going through that City.” experience now. Matychuk’s day job is managing the magazine “Schools are getting worse, roads are get- THE FUTURE IS GOOD racks in the downtown Vancouver Chapters ting worse, everything is getting worse bookstore, and by night he’s an alternative rock because they simply do not have the tax base musician and stand-up social critic. He’s also to support the kind of infrastructure that’s Lots of transit, lots of density known as Dave M., and his band is called No needed there.” Fun. He likes to drive, but doesn’t much nowadays. Choking the roads e’re going to be living closer ple live closer to their jobs, schools, He remembers when he could leave home in together 30 years from now, stores and other amenities. And we Surrey an hour before show time, drive to Van- Land use has the most dramatic effect on Wand we’ll be riding transit don’t need to drive as much. couver in 40 minutes and be in plenty of time the computer model, said Randi Kruse-Ferdi- more and driving less, if all goes well. Nor would we want to. Parking is for a movie on Granville Street. nands, who has run about 50 workshops with That’s the vision shared by most scarce and expensive. More than ever, “Now, forget it.” residents and planners using the Georgia people interviewed by The Vancouver we walk, we bicycle, we take the bus So he commutes from Whalley, where he Basin Futures Project’s version of the Quest Sun about the future of Greater Van- or the train. owns a house down the road from the King software to map out alternative futures. couver. If we follow that route, the Metro- George SkyTrain station. “If we don’t densify, it not only has an effect There will be 3.2 million of us, a mil- Quest program says our air quality “I can walk out of my house in Surrey at five on parkland and unprotected natural land, but lion more than today. But we will be will be better in 30 years, we will after seven, walk to the end of the road, get on also agricultural land,” Kruse-Ferdinands living in not much more space than reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we the train, always get a seat because it’s the first said. we’re using now, if we follow the com- can reduce taxes because compact liv- train, and I’m always on time here at Robson “We see the cost of living go up. We see pact development strategy the region ing means spending less on infrastruc- and Howe. I always punch in before eight greenhouse gas emissions increase, because adopted more than a decade ago. ture, and even a family’s cost of living o’clock.” it’s difficult for public transit to be efficient in Vancouver Mayor Larry Campbell will go down as we spend less money Matychuk says Vancouver has grown up a low-density environment.” has no problem envisioning what’s on transportation. about as much as it needs to. Other pressures are pushing us in the same over the horizon. Vancouver’s southeast “We have to stay a small town. We have to direction says Andrew Ramlo, director of “I imagine,” he says, “a city that has housing development will be nearly stay impressed with celebrities and not be jad- Urban Futures Inc. solved its transit problems by having a 25 years old, and a showcase for ed, and I think Vancouver always will.” Baby boomers will soon be retiring in great system of high-speed transit, either green living. It will begin as the Van- As for Surrey, he says it was once considered numbers, and Ramlo said Greater Vancouver underground or above-ground, that’s couver Olympic Village for the 2010 the end of civilization, but now it’s part of the will need accelerated immigration rates to fed by hydrogen buses. Winter Games, then expand into a regional city, “just one big thing, pretty much all replace them in the labour force. “I see a city that has densified along neighbourhood based on sustainable the way out to Aldergrove, if not Abbotsford. But most boomers intend to stay in their those transit corridors, and has recog- principles. It’s not an endless downtown or anything, just a homes into their 70s and 80s, and that means nized that you have to have housing “If they pull it off, it will probably be big suburb.” the new arrivals will have to look to the sub- for everybody, that it all can’t be high a real turning point for people to look He likes it like that, and he figures we don’t urbs for housing. end.” at and say, ‘You can do it in a sustain- have the physical space to become a huge city, “There’s going to be more land developed There will be no twinned Port Mann able way,’ ” says Johnny Carline, chief anyhow. for residential uses, and there’s going to be a Bridge, Campbell says, touching on a administrator of the Greater Vancou- “Vancouver has this beautiful little setting. It’s heck of a lot more cars on the road,” Ramlo seething controversy that is pitting ver Regional District. always going to be like that. It’s always going to said. Vancouver, Burnaby and New West- “That’s possibly one of the most be this thing stuck to the tail end of Canada, and People will spend more time commuting, minster against Surrey, Langley and important developments in the histo- I think it’s a wonderful thing.” “and they’re probably not going to be quite as other communities south of the Fraser ry of this city, maybe in the history of happy.” River. this country. It’s very important that • Several recent studies, including one by But we will have less-congested we get these demonstration projects We might not have a choice but to take good UBC transportation expert Lawrence Frank, roads, Campbell says, because we will right, so that people who are afraid of care of the city, says Johnny Carline, chief have linked suburban living and longer com- build “a high-speed train that comes them, uncertain, can look at these pio- administrator of the Greater Vancouver mutes with increasing health problems. from Chilliwack straight down the neer developments and say, ‘This Regional District. The world will insist. But new low-density suburbs will be impos- middle of the freeway,” fed by buses works.’ ” Step back a moment and take a global view, sible to serve with transit, said Johnny Car- and park-and-ride lots. he says. China, India, Indonesia and other line, chief administrator of the Greater Van- More of us will walk or bicycle to Denser and denser underdeveloped, heavily populated countries couver Regional District, and that means work, all our bridges will have bike are racing into economic development. pressure to build more roads, attracting more lanes, and Greater Vancouver will We will see more densely built-up If they develop the same way the now-devel- cars, leading to more congestion. have surpassed the Kyoto Accord’s areas, not necessarily with highrises oped world did — with coal and dirty indus- “Even existing neighbourhoods that are sur- clean-air standards. like the West End’s, but more like the tries, oil and internal combustion engines — the rounded by congestion will be under increas- In Vancouver itself, the Downtown condo clusters of Fairview Slopes and planet will be in serious trouble. ing pressure for what were their shopping Eastside is transformed into a kind of many of North Vancouver’s recent “If we expect them to develop in any other streets to be widened, their convenient park- new , Chinatown has been developments. Carline sees “a steady way,” Carline says, “they’re going to expect us ing to be removed, and ultimately maybe restored and people are starting to infilling and intensification of land to make some adjustments at the same time. In whole new roads to be driven through their move there from Richmond. use all around the region.” that sense, Kyoto is the tip of the iceberg.” neighbourhoods,” Carline said. Campbell’s frequent adversary in That can be done on a human scale, So our choice, really, is between waiting for regional politics, Surrey Mayor Doug he says. People will live in places that some massive environmental and economic cri- Seattle: how not to McCallum, sees a similar outcome — may feel like villages of bygone eras, sis that forces us to make drastic, sudden farm land intact and higher density in with houses mixed in with shops, changes, and planning now how to adjust to the Vancouver Mayor Larry Campbell agrees the town centres. offices and other work places. world of the future. that “If we screw up, our quality of life starts But McCallum says we can get there What we won’t see is many new Carline says that will mean looking at the deteriorating. We don’t maintain our standing by a slightly different route, with more subdivisions with single family homes energy and materials that we produce and con- in the world as the No. 1 city. road-building, more development on large lots. In a region that wants to sume, reducing “the intensity of consumption,” “People will start moving out instead of south of the , and the keep its green space, we can no longer maximizing re-use and minimizing waste. moving in because of the degradation of the region’s 21 municipalities becoming afford them, Carline says. “We haven’t considered what it means yet to environment. four large cities — Vancouver-Burna- “We are close to occupying all the plan neighbourhoods or towns on the basis of “If we do not deal with transit in a manner by-, Surrey and the land that we want to see developed. maximizing the efficiency of energy use and that is renewable and that does not just add other south-of-the-Fraser communi- Then does it make any sense whatso- minimizing energy waste,” he said. more cars to the road, we’re doomed. ties, the North Shore and the northeast. ever to have a low-intensity use of that But a good guess is that it’s time to wake up “But I don’t see that happening,” Campbell land?” from the suburban dream of the 1950s, the single said, adding he’s optimistic the region will Corridors and clusters The Vancouver Board of Trade family home with the big green lawn, the com- make the right choices in the coming years. shares a similar vision — a livable fortable car in the garage, the solitary drive to Dave Park, the Vancouver Board of Trade’s In our brightest futures, the region region strategy with growth along the tree-lined office park. chief economist, argues the region needs preserves most of its farmland and rapid transit corridors. “That is probably a pattern of life that we just more road capacity alongside more transit to natural areas, says Dave Biggs, co- But don’t forget the roads, says the can’t afford. And it will be increasingly a mar- remain vibrant but sees the same downside if founder of a software company that’s board’s chief economist, Dave Park. ginal lifestyle.” we allow too much congestion to build up. marketing MetroQuest, a real-world “It doesn’t work unless we have the “If you want to see the mess we could get version of the popular city-building transportation to match,” Park says, • into, go down to Seattle,” Park said. “We were computer game Sim City. adding outlying areas have serious Jacquie Gould is ready for a little down-siz- told three years ago by their chamber of com- Plug in your preferred land-use traffic congestion problems, and the ing, and she favours making better use of merce that they cannot attract another major choices, transportation policies and a movement of goods and services resources. company to that city because of the problems host of other factors, and the program through the region is at risk. “I’m in my 40s now,” said the North Vancou- with rush-hour traffic.” shows you what the region is likely to “We can’t just say, don’t build any ver assistant movie director, script writer and If we go that route, “It will become much look like in 10 to 40 years. more roads, because we can’t begin to editor. “I’ve had money, I’ve spent money, I’ve more difficult to attract new employers, eco- Biggs says in the generally preferred accommodate the growth on buses or been a huge consumer. nomic growth will suffer, and we will essen- outcome, Greater Vancouver develops in rapid transit. We’ve got to have a “I had a big car. I’ve just downsized. I’m start- tially strangle on our own traffic.” ❑ along transit corridors and clusters balanced program going forward.” ❑ ing to realize that bigger isn’t better.” — William Boei population around town centres. Peo- — William Boei Gould spends more time thinking about fam-

Continued on C3 OBSERVER THE VANCOUVER SUN, SATURDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2004 C3 How to get from here to there

IAN LINDSAY/VANCOUVER SUN IAN SMITH/VANCOUVER SUN Dave Biggs: ‘We’ve got to realize that we have to make some choices. Is it more important to Dave Matychuk: ‘We have to stay a small town. We have to stay impressed with celebrities you to have clean air or a big yard? Is it more important to drive your car or to pay low taxes?’ and not be jaded, and I think Vancouver always will.’

From C2 • The northeast sector: Port Moody, Coquit- lam, , Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge ily, about the environment, about recycling, about Population growth for the GVRD as well as Anmore and Belcarra. living in “a stunning city” and not wrecking it. Projected to reach nearly 3.3 million by 2041. • The North Shore: West Vancouver, North “I don’t believe in building more highways, Vancouver city and district, plus Bowen Island building more and more stuff, getting more and 1.7% and Lions Bay. more into debt,” she said. “I don’t see Vancouver Voters would elect their municipal councils being a huge metropolis. What can we do with Growth rate and a regional executive committee of perhaps what we have?” 1.4% nine members who would deal with major cross-

That brings her to her frequent walks — rain 3,294,355 border services and issues like sewer, water,

or shine — through the woods in the Cleveland 3,181,703 transportation and air quality.

Dam area. 3,044,748 Our notion of region may also change, McCal- For much of the year, tonnes of fresh water 2,885,364 lum says.

spills over the dam, and Gould wonders why we 2,709,663 “I see a bigger picture of the region, from West don’t use more of it. 1.3% Vancouver to Hope, or even from Squamish to 2,527,481

“We have a gold mine in our backyard. We 2,353,583 Hope.” could sell our water and make money to make McCallum argues that the centre of this Low- 2,205,167 1.0% our city better, and we don’t. 2,076,098 er Mainland region, geographically and admin- “If I took a hike today, there would be buckets istratively, will be Whalley, in north Surrey. of water going over that dam. But every summer 0.8% Whalley? Yes, he says, seriously. Stimulated by I can’t water my garden and I lose plants, and yet the extension of SkyTrain, Whalley is seeing it rains eight months of the year. You know?” 0.6% “unbelievable” growth and development. “A lot of the new development is now heading south of • the Fraser River, and I see that as the centre of The Greater Vancouver region is headed away the region.” from green concepts like sustainability and com- The other thing the region needs is for some pact development, according to MetroQuest, the municipal leaders to start minding their own computer model that generated the maps with business, McCallum says. the accompanying story on page C2. That’s a shot at the mayors of the inner cities, Without a change of direction, we’re cruising 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 who don’t want the Port Mann Bridge and the towards the sprawl scenario, the one that shows Trans-Canada Highway opened full throttle dots and blotches of yellow and orange — low- Source: Urban Futures Inc. VANCOUVER SUN because that could turn their municipalities into density suburbs — all over the map of Greater parking lots, and encourage sprawl in the valley. Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. park land and unprotected natural land, but also schools and everything. “Centres that just want transit, that’s fine,” But that same software — actually its cousin, agricultural land,” Kruse-Ferdinands said. “We’ve got to realize that we have to make McCallum says. “They can have that. called Georgia Basin Quest — reveals that when “We see the cost of living go up. We see green- some choices, because we can’t actually deliver “But those centres shouldn’t be telling other we are faced with the graphic consequences of house gas emissions increase, because it’s diffi- all of those things simultaneously. centres that they don’t need roads if those other our decisions, we can make tough choices and cult for public transit to be efficient in a low-den- “So, is it more important to you to have clean centres need roads. That’s the problem we have change the future, says Randi Kruse-Ferdinands, sity environment. Public transit options are less air or a big yard? Is it more important to drive right now.” community engagement coordinator with the and less available if we sprawl.” your car or to pay low taxes? McCallum says the south-of-the-Fraser com- Georgia Basin Futures Project. Increase density, however, and the model “We need to elevate the discussion with stake- munities will get what they want — more road The Quest software has been more than a shows we can retain green space, traffic conges- holders to the level where they’re actually pre- capacity — and that the region can still remain decade in the making with more than 70 people tion is reduced, public transit becomes more pared to say, ‘This is more important than that is. healthy. working on it from forestry, medicine, sociology, viable and people are able to work in the same I’m willing to make that choice.’” “The only way we’ll ever mess it up is if we education and other fields at the University of communities where they live. And they do, Biggs said. don’t listen to the residents of this region. I think B.C., Simon Fraser University and the University “After people play around with some alterna- it’s very important that we listen to how they of Victoria. • tive futures, they come to a consensus very want to see the region develop, and that us as The data that went into it came from local, People are often taken aback by the region cre- quickly. They start to migrate to the kinds of poli- politicians need to stay out of that.” international and provincial sources, including ated by their choices. All they wanted was a quiet, cies that the GVRD is actually recommending.” the official community plans of every munici- pleasant suburb, and they get gridlock hell instead. • pality in the region. It took five years just to com- Fortunately, Quest sessions allow them to make • Others suggest more of us have to become pile the data base, and for the last two years, adjustments. But it’s not just a matter of bludgeoning the involved in shaping the future. Kruse-Ferdinands has organized about 50 work- “You keep playing until you start to get a future public into embracing the GVRD’s solutions, “The answers are only going to come from you shops with community groups, municipal plan- that you like,” said Dave Biggs, who has been work- Carline says. and me,” says Andrew Ramlo of Urban Futures ners, members of the public and various organi- ing with MetroQuest, the commercial version of The region is going through a detailed exami- Inc. “They’re not going to come from the Greater zations. the Quest software, which is being marketed by his nation of how it governs itself. For that matter, so Vancouver Regional District or any other form “We use Quest as a discussion tool to provoke company, Envision Sustainability Tools. is the provincial government. Some regional of higher political bodies saying you should be people to talk to each other and to think in ways “Once you’ve got a future that you like, you can politicians are demanding changes, and when a doing this or that.” and about issues that they haven’t before,” she go back and say, what choices did we end up hav- GVRD or TransLink meeting dissolves into Like the participants in MetroQuest work- said. ing to make in order to make that future? Let’s chaos, they get public support. shops, we have to acknowledge that our lifestyle Participants are divided into groups and asked break that down.” TransLink chairman, GVRD director and Sur- decisions have consequences and that taken to come up with a consensus on what kind of One thing the software does is force decision- rey Mayor Doug McCallum is one of them. together, they determine the shape of our city community they would like to see, with choices makers to think about a much longer time frame McCallum, who champions more road- and and our region, Ramlo said. involving everything from development patterns than the usual three-year election mandate or bridge-building alongside transit development, Regional government faces a similar challenge, to transportation trends, economic alternatives, five-year community plan. They have to make says Greater Vancouver and its 21 municipalities Carline added. The regional district, the trans- consumption of goods and services, tax rates, economic, social and environmental decisions are far too fragmented. portation authority, the 21 municipal councils, the water use, agricultural practices, and others. based on a 40-year result horizon. The solution, he says, is to divide the region provincial government and all the agencies that Their choices are entered into the software, People often start with unrealistic expecta- into just four cities: provide utilities and services in the region will and “we show them the results over a 40-year tions, Biggs said. • The three inner cities, Vancouver, New West- have to get on the same page rather than working time frame.” “They want generous yards, pristine agricul- minster and Burnaby. at cross-purposes. Density or lack of it is a huge factor in shaping tural and natural land, they want low taxes, they • The south-of-the Fraser communities, Rich- “I don’t think we’re going to have that luxury the region, the researchers found. want uncongested roads, they want a short dri- mond, Delta, Surrey, White Rock, and Langley in the future.” ❑ “If we don’t densify, it not only has an effect on ve to work, and good police services and good city and township. [email protected]