Greater Vancouver’S Options What the Consequences Are
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C2 THE VANCOUVER SUN, SATURDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2004 OBSERVER The region’s duelling futures: Untrammelled, Compact development or urban sprawl? THE FUTURE Greater Vancouver’s options What the consequences are. sprawling growth MetroQuest, a soft- Population distribution 2041 ware package or an orderly, IS BAD developed at the University of B.C. and marketed by a planned vision: Vancouver soft- More cars, more ware company, pre- dicts Greater Van- It’s our choice couver will become suburbs, bad air a huge conglomer- reater Vancouver may be on its way to ate of sprawling becoming a sprawling, polluted area suburbs by 2041 if Gwith much of the region’s farmland and current develop- green space turned into paved suburbs, roads ment patterns con- The top map shows the development pattern predicted by the Metro- jammed with angry commuters, the air foul tinue. But if the Quest software if the region follows sustainable principles. The bottom and the economy stagnant. region can follow map shows the likely result if development continues unrestrained. It’s a risk we face if we make the wrong "sustainable" prin- decisions as the region’s population grows by ciples such as Population distribution 2041 a million over the next three decades. compact develop- And it is the direction we are currently headed in, says Dave Biggs, co-founder of ment in town cen- WILLIAM BOEI Vancouver software company Envision Sus- tres and along VANCOUVER SUN tainability Tools. rapid transit corri- Envision is marketing MetroQuest, a real- dors, it can pre- world version of the Sim City computer game, serve most of the in which players try to build a viable city. farm and natural ere’s how you charm a wary Vancou- MetroQuest generates future development land we have now verite, according to Dave Matychuk. scenarios based on policy choices, and Biggs and maintain work- You tell him, “You know, this is the said they show we are headed towards deteri- able transportation Hmost beautiful city in the world,” and orating air quality, diminishing green space, systems. the Vancouverite sighs, “Aah.” and higher taxes and cost of living. “But, it’s too expensive,” you say, and the Van- Single-occupant vehicles are increasingly couverite goes, “Mmh.” the region’s dominant transportation choice, WEST NORTH Black and Orange and “But, it’s worth it,” you add. which encourages people to live farther away VANCOUVER VANCOUVER brown: high den- yellow: low den- “And then you’ve got him. I’ve been using that COQUITLAM from work, shopping and schools. BURNABY sity urban areas sity suburbs for years.” That means more suburbs, less agricultural VANCOUVER NEW PITT MEADOWS Red: Medium Green and grey: Matychuk lives in Surrey but makes his living WEST. MAPLE density commu- farm and natural and natural land, more roads, longer driving RICHMOND RIDGE in Vancouver, and so he straddles the region’s nities. land distances, less efficient transit, and more traf- DELTA SURREY two solitudes — the lovely, somewhat insecure fic congestion. downtown peninsula, and the sprawling, often Suburban municipalities that lack large WHITE maligned southeastern suburb. commercial and industrial tax bases will have ROCK “They desperately want it to be a big town, trouble paying for the roads, and that means but it’s not,” he says of Vancouverites. “They’ll higher taxes or reduced services. Biggs said get all bent out of shape if you call it No Fun some U.S. suburbs are going through that City.” experience now. Matychuk’s day job is managing the magazine “Schools are getting worse, roads are get- THE FUTURE IS GOOD racks in the downtown Vancouver Chapters ting worse, everything is getting worse bookstore, and by night he’s an alternative rock because they simply do not have the tax base musician and stand-up social critic. He’s also to support the kind of infrastructure that’s Lots of transit, lots of density known as Dave M., and his band is called No needed there.” Fun. He likes to drive, but doesn’t much nowadays. Choking the roads e’re going to be living closer ple live closer to their jobs, schools, He remembers when he could leave home in together 30 years from now, stores and other amenities. And we Surrey an hour before show time, drive to Van- Land use has the most dramatic effect on Wand we’ll be riding transit don’t need to drive as much. couver in 40 minutes and be in plenty of time the computer model, said Randi Kruse-Ferdi- more and driving less, if all goes well. Nor would we want to. Parking is for a movie on Granville Street. nands, who has run about 50 workshops with That’s the vision shared by most scarce and expensive. More than ever, “Now, forget it.” residents and planners using the Georgia people interviewed by The Vancouver we walk, we bicycle, we take the bus So he commutes from Whalley, where he Basin Futures Project’s version of the Quest Sun about the future of Greater Van- or the train. owns a house down the road from the King software to map out alternative futures. couver. If we follow that route, the Metro- George SkyTrain station. “If we don’t densify, it not only has an effect There will be 3.2 million of us, a mil- Quest program says our air quality “I can walk out of my house in Surrey at five on parkland and unprotected natural land, but lion more than today. But we will be will be better in 30 years, we will after seven, walk to the end of the road, get on also agricultural land,” Kruse-Ferdinands living in not much more space than reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we the train, always get a seat because it’s the first said. we’re using now, if we follow the com- can reduce taxes because compact liv- train, and I’m always on time here at Robson “We see the cost of living go up. We see pact development strategy the region ing means spending less on infrastruc- and Howe. I always punch in before eight greenhouse gas emissions increase, because adopted more than a decade ago. ture, and even a family’s cost of living o’clock.” it’s difficult for public transit to be efficient in Vancouver Mayor Larry Campbell will go down as we spend less money Matychuk says Vancouver has grown up a low-density environment.” has no problem envisioning what’s on transportation. about as much as it needs to. Other pressures are pushing us in the same over the horizon. Vancouver’s southeast False Creek “We have to stay a small town. We have to direction says Andrew Ramlo, director of “I imagine,” he says, “a city that has housing development will be nearly stay impressed with celebrities and not be jad- Urban Futures Inc. solved its transit problems by having a 25 years old, and a showcase for ed, and I think Vancouver always will.” Baby boomers will soon be retiring in great system of high-speed transit, either green living. It will begin as the Van- As for Surrey, he says it was once considered numbers, and Ramlo said Greater Vancouver underground or above-ground, that’s couver Olympic Village for the 2010 the end of civilization, but now it’s part of the will need accelerated immigration rates to fed by hydrogen buses. Winter Games, then expand into a regional city, “just one big thing, pretty much all replace them in the labour force. “I see a city that has densified along neighbourhood based on sustainable the way out to Aldergrove, if not Abbotsford. But most boomers intend to stay in their those transit corridors, and has recog- principles. It’s not an endless downtown or anything, just a homes into their 70s and 80s, and that means nized that you have to have housing “If they pull it off, it will probably be big suburb.” the new arrivals will have to look to the sub- for everybody, that it all can’t be high a real turning point for people to look He likes it like that, and he figures we don’t urbs for housing. end.” at and say, ‘You can do it in a sustain- have the physical space to become a huge city, “There’s going to be more land developed There will be no twinned Port Mann able way,’ ” says Johnny Carline, chief anyhow. for residential uses, and there’s going to be a Bridge, Campbell says, touching on a administrator of the Greater Vancou- “Vancouver has this beautiful little setting. It’s heck of a lot more cars on the road,” Ramlo seething controversy that is pitting ver Regional District. always going to be like that. It’s always going to said. Vancouver, Burnaby and New West- “That’s possibly one of the most be this thing stuck to the tail end of Canada, and People will spend more time commuting, minster against Surrey, Langley and important developments in the histo- I think it’s a wonderful thing.” “and they’re probably not going to be quite as other communities south of the Fraser ry of this city, maybe in the history of happy.” River. this country. It’s very important that • Several recent studies, including one by But we will have less-congested we get these demonstration projects We might not have a choice but to take good UBC transportation expert Lawrence Frank, roads, Campbell says, because we will right, so that people who are afraid of care of the city, says Johnny Carline, chief have linked suburban living and longer com- build “a high-speed train that comes them, uncertain, can look at these pio- administrator of the Greater Vancouver mutes with increasing health problems.