Volcanic Risk Perception and Beyond

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Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 172 (2008) 163–169 www.elsevier.com/locate/jvolgeores

Editorial Volcanic risk perception and beyond

1. Introduction Risk perception was studied initially using mainly psychometric and econometric methods. The first dominant piece of In the last few years, the Journal of Volcanology and work was by Starr (1969), who used a revealed preference Geothermal Research (JVGR) has published an increasing number methodology, and argued from this that there were distinct of papers on the perception of volcanic risks (e.g. Dibben and differences in society's acceptance of voluntary rather than Chester, 1999; Dominey-Howes and Minos-Minopoulos, 2004; involuntary risks. Researchers exploring peoples expressed views Gregg et al., 2004a,b). At the same time, international volcanology on risk revealed a wider number of dimensions that seemed to be conferences have been dedicating more sessions to the human used to organise some of the many risks that confront individuals aspects of risk and disasters (e.g. Cities on Volcanoes conferences, (Fischoff et al., 1978; Slovic et al., 1980). The three main International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics congresses, dimensions that were identified were: dread (i.e. a risk's International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the catastrophic nature), familiarity (i.e. knowledge and familiarity Earth's Interior meetings). This is symptomatic of the increasing of consequences), and number of people exposed. When the attention given by the volcanological community to the human social context of risk perception has been explored, social roles dimension of volcanic activity. Drawing on this growing interest, have been shown to differentiate how hazards are perceived the present volume focuses on the relationship between volcanic (Slovic et al., 1980). Individual and group differences seem to risk and human societies with the aim of developing a holistic affect what aspects of the risk phenomena an individual see as approach to the reduction of the harm associated with volcanic salient, the frame of reference used and what risks are seen as activity. To our knowledge, this special edition is unique in important (Wynne, 1992). This may lead to risk perception being drawing on the work of researchers from a wide range of framed by a groups' trust in the institutions responsible for disciplines, e.g. sociology, anthropology, psychology, geography, mediating the threat (Kasperson, 1992; Wynne, 1992). geology, volcanology and engineering. It brings together a set of The idea that differences in risk perception might naturally both theoretical papers and case studies dealing with a vast range arise from society, has been central to the Cultural theoretical of geographic locations, e.g. the Caribbean, Indonesia, Italy, New approach to risk perception (Douglas, 1966; Thompson, 1980). It Zealand, the Pacific, the Philippines and the USA. The articles is argued that whatever objective dangers may exit in the world, published in this special issue follow different scientific paradigms social organizations will emphasize those that reinforce the moral, and engage in an insightful debate on the role of risk perception political, or religious order that holds the group together (Rayner, and other social and economic factors in shaping people's 1992, p. 87) and therefore that individuals actively choose what to behaviour in the face of volcanic hazards. In this editorial paper, fear (and how to fear it), in order to support their way of life (Dake we set out the conceptual background behind the different and Wildavsky, 1993, p. 43). Risk selection is said to be based on scientific paradigms that structure social science studies of risk cultural biases or deeply held beliefs and worldviews whose value perception, and briefly review the existing volcanic risk perception lie in the defence of particular patterns of social relations. That can literature. This should enable the reader to critically assess the be summarised under four main archetypes egalitarians, indivi- contribution of the present volume to our understanding of risk dualists, hierarchists,andfatalists (Douglas and Wildavsky, perception and people's behaviour in volcanic environment. 1983). More generally it is argued that membership of social organisations and groups will affect what risks individuals identify 2. Scientific paradigms of risk perception for attention and how they are integrated into existing patterns of belief (Green et al., 1990). The affect of cultural biases on Two fairly separate strands of research inform the scientific perceptions of risk will be felt especially strongly when any study of volcanic risk perception. These arise from the broader ‘objective assessment’ of risk is very difficult or impossible risk perception literature, which is discussed first, and then the (Adams, 1995) when people are especially likely to impose more specific study of natural hazards. meaning onto the uncertainty.

A psychosocial explanation for why some risks become volcanic threat is deeply influenced by risk perception. Most of more a focus for concern than others can be found in the risk the early studies also focused on volcanoes located in amplification theory (Kasperson et al., 1988; Kasperson, 1992). industrialized countries, especially in the USA. One of the Based on the assumption that most of the information people first studies was published by Lachman and Bonk (1960) in receive on risk is through communication rather than direct relation to the 1960 eruption of Kapoho volcano in Hawaii. It experience, it explains how various psychological, social and was followed by another study on Hawaii by Murton and cultural factors lead to the perception of risk being either Shimabukuro published in 1974. Both works were pioneering attenuated or intensified. The key arguments of risk amplification and acted as springboards for later studies of people's theory being that information on risk can be viewed as a signal perception of risk associated with the 1980 Mount St. Helens and that when it passes through particular stations (eg. groups of eruption (Greene et al., 1981; Perry et al., 1982; Perry and scientists, newspaper or pressure groups) it undergoes predictable Lindell, 1990a,b; Lindell and Perry, 1993). Hodge et al. (1979) transformations. Different aspects of the risk are either attenuated at the same time made a comparative study between USA or intensified and therefore groups and individuals have different Cascades and Hawaii volcanoes. Since the 1990s, a larger interpretations of hazard events (Kasperson et al., 2003). number of studies have investigated the link between risk The view that risk-taking behaviour can be directly related to perception and people's behaviour in volcanic environment in risk perception has been convincingly challenged in many studies Europe (Dibben and Chester, 1999; Davis and Ricci, 2004; and yet this problematic proposition can still be described as the Dominey-Howes and Minos-Minopoulos, 2004; Davis et al., ‘dominant’ theoretical concept in natural hazard research (Hewitt, 2005), the USA (Perry, 1990; Gregg et al., 2004a,b), the 1983; Chester, 1993). This dominant approach is often centred on Caribbean (D'Ercole and Rançon, 1994, 1999; Lesales, 1997; a perception-adjustment paradigm (White, 1945; Kates, 1971; Leone and Lesales, 2004, 2005), New Zealand (Johnston et al., Burton et al., 1993), where an individual: (1) appraises the 1999; Paton et al., 2001; Becker et al., 2001; Johnston and probability and magnitude of extreme events; (2) canvasses the Houghton, 1995; Finnis et al., 2004), Japan (Yoshii, 1992; range of possible alternative actions; (3) evaluating the Nomura et al., 2004), Mexico (Medrano, 2005; López-Vázquez consequences of selected actions; (4) chooses one or a et al., 2006) and the Philippines (Gaillard et al., 2001). These combination of actions (Burton et al., 1993,p.101).Untilan studies are basically hazard-centered and conclude that volcanic individual is aware of a hazard, he or she will not start on the risk perception is primarily shaped by hazard knowledge which process of decision making and as different people have different largely depends on previous experience of volcanic eruption thresholds at which they become aware of a hazard and therefore and/or information provided by different media. Murton and decide on different levels of behavioural adjustments or adapta- Shimabukuro (1974) underline the role of personal experience tions so risk behaviour varies (Burton et al., 1993). The decision in high risk perception and positive adjustment in the face of making model is viewed in more recent work as bounded (i.e. non- potential eruptions in Hawaii. Johnston et al. (1999), Paton et al. optimal ‘satisficing’ behaviour under constrained information) but (2001) and Becker et al. (2001) carried out a perception- is still focused on a perception-adjustment paradigm. adjustment study prior and after the 1995 eruption of Ruapehu In contrast to this it is argued that the perception of a natural volcano in New Zealand. Not surprisingly, they confirm that hazard and behaviour that may affect the threat it poses, is more experiencing an actual eruption is a major influence on volcanic related to societal organisation and values than perceptions of hazard knowledge and risk perception. They however warn that geophysical conditions and that disasters are not explained by people's behavioral adjustment may infer from their ability to behaviour peculiar to the disaster event but rather by the nature of cope with an (objectively) minor impact the ability to cope with society in a particular geographic location (Torry, 1979; Susman any future occurrence or assume that future events will not et al., 1983; Hewitt, 1983). Physical extremes should be viewed as exercise an adverse effect on them (Johnston et al., 1999, just one aspect of the context within which an individual or group p. 123). Johnston and Houghton (1995) also conducted a survey functions, in most places and segments of society where among school children of the Central North Island in New calamities are occurring, the natural events are about as certain Zealand exposed to different natural hazards including volcanic as anything within a person's lifetime, or at least that of himself, eruptions. Their research confirms once again the fundamental his children and grandchildren (Hewitt, 1983,p.26).Inmany importance of experience in high risk perception. Gregg et al. circumstances there might not be a causal relationship between (2004a) also linked good hazard knowledge and risk perception risk perception and behaviour; rather behaviour would be to eruption experience and repose time. They further corrobo- constrained by social structure. Therefore in order to understand rate White's assessment that people with the higher risk per- risk perception it would be necessary to understand the wider ception are likely to be best prepared in the event of an eruption. social context in which individuals are situated. Using mental maps, French geographers (D'Ercole and Rançon, 1994, 1999; Leone and Lesales, 2004, 2005) showed that the 3. Volcanic risk perception in the literature spatial dimension of risk perception is also closely related to the experience or memory of past events. In the case of Mount Researchers' interest in volcanic risk perception dates back Pelée, in Martinique, people tend to link the threatened areas to to the 1960s and has been deeply influenced by White's work. those affected by the 1902 eruption that buried the town of St In line with White's perception-adjustment paradigm, most of Pierre. In relation to the experience of previous events, D'Ercole the early studies consider that people's behaviour when facing (1991, 1994, 1996) and D'Ercole and Peltre (1992) add that the Editorial 165 distance to the volcano and the length of residence are (2004) focused on the influence of religion on people's behaviour significant determinants that shape risk perception when the and risk perception. They show how religion continues to volcano is dormant like Mount Cotopaxi in Ecuador. To our influence people's perception and response to volcano hazards knowledge, only the study of Hodge et al. (1979) following the not solely among traditional communities but in Christian Mount Baker 1975 eruption in the USA challenges experience societies as well. A wide range of studies by anthropologists as the critical factor in defining the level of risk perception in the further show how traditional societies are strongly bonded to the face of volcanic hazards. As well as previous experience of volcano they live on and how their perception of associated risk is volcanic events, risk perception may be enhanced by informa- biased. For instance, Belshaw (1951), Keesing (1952), Ingleby tion campaigns. The role of the media in determining risk (1966) and Schwimmer (1969) have documented how Mount perception is stressed by Greene et al. (1981), Perry et al. Lamington in Papua New Guinea is central to the life of Sangara, (1982), Perry and Lindell (1990a,b), Lindell and Perry (1993) Sasembata and Orokaivan ethnic groups. Still in Papua New following Mount St Helens 1980 eruption. They considered the Guinea, Mount Rabaul is the focus of Tolai's life (To Waninara, source and frequency of information received and its credibility 2000). Mount Pinatubo also plays a central role in the cultural life as a significant factor influencing volcanic risk perception. On of the Aetas of the Philippines as shown by Shimizu (1989, 2001), the other hand, Dominey-Howes and Minos-Minopoulos (2004) Seitz (2004), Tima (2005) and Gaillard (2006). Schlehe (1996), note, for unclear reasons, a lack of understanding of volcanic Forth (1998) and Frömming (2001) focused on the place of Merapi hazards on the island of Santorini despite vigorous educational and Flores volcanoes in Indonesian societies. Queseda (2005, programs. 2007) documented how people of Niuafo'ou (Tonga) and Hawaii Interestingly, only a few studies followed the radical paradigm nurture intimate relationships with their respective volcano. of disaster research to assess people's behaviour and risk perception in volcanic environment. The most comprehensive 4. Contribution of the present JVGR special issue research, by Dibben (1999), concludes that the behaviour and vulnerability of people in the face of volcanic hazards is deeply The papers in this special edition take forward a number of rooted in the socio-economic context and the historical develop- the themes arising from the existing volcanic risk perception ment of the place as shown in case studies in São Miguel, Azores literature. (Chester et al., 1999; Dibben and Chester, 1999), and around Plans for populations residing on or close to volcanoes to Mount Etna in Italy. Additional insights from the surroundings of evacuate, rather than to permanently migrate or be removed, during Vesuvius volcano, still in Italy, similarly trace vulnerability to periods of crisis are a common feature of many societies adaptation high population densities and social and economic margin- to volcanic risk. Evacuations will often be difficult, especially alization (Chester et al., 2002). Chester (1993) further reviews a when the numbers of people that need to be evacuated are large and large set of case studies through the lens of people's responses to where the settings from which they are moving are complex. The volcanic hazards in both the developing and industrialized worlds. case of Vesuvius, in Italy, is both significant and interesting; He concludes that societies' response are complex and variable in significant, because of the size of the ‘at risk’ population and time and space and underlines the importance of anthropogenic interesting because there has been a large scale evacuation plan factors in the occurrence of disasters identified with volcanic since 1995, the National Emergency Plan for Vesuvian Area eruptions. In another pioneer and landmark study around Mount (NEPVA). Three papers in this edition explore the levels of Merapi in Java, Indonesia, Laksono (1988) describes how understanding and readiness to evacuate that exists amongst inhabitants of the flanks of the volcano returned to their original different sections of this population. Barberi et al., find that homes soon after the government resettled them in Sumatra. The although the people they interviewed had a realistic view of the unfamiliar place of evacuation seemed more risky to the Merapi hazards they were exposed to, they did not have a clear people than living on the slopes of an active volcano with cultural understanding of the evacuation plan itself or confidence in the familiarity and existing coping mechanisms (Schlehe, 1996; officials who would have to organise an evacuation. The lack of Dove, 2007a,b; Dove and Hudayana, in press). Wisner et al. confidence in officials seems to be justified given the findings of (2004) recently revisited three cases of volcanic eruptions (i.e. the Solana et al., who interviewed civil authorities in and around 1985 Nevado del Ruiz eruption in Colombia, the 1995–1998 Vesuvius, and found that that their knowledge of how they should activity of the Soufriere Hills of Montserrat and the 2002 respond to a volcanic crisis was incomplete. Carlino et al. similarly awakening of Mount Nyiragongo in the Democratic Republic of found that for high school students, although they had a realistic Congo) to highlight the role of political institutions, access to perception of the risk, they were concerned about how they could livelihoods, dependent economies and armed conflicts in shaping protect themselves. They also had a poor understanding of the social vulnerability in the face of volcanic hazards. D'Ercole NEPVA.All papers conclude that there is therefore a need for some (1991, 1994, 1996; D'Ercole and Peltre, 1992), Tobin and kind of programme of education, though given the findings of Whiteford (2002), Lane (2003), Lane et al. (2003) note that the Barberi et al., that other economic and social problems are felt to be strength of livelihoods is critical in defining people's vulnerability more significant by people living in and around Vesuvius, the and behaviour in the face of volcanic hazards in Ecuador. relative significance of volcanic risk above other concerns needs to Medrano (2005) similarly showed how risk perception around be carefully considered. They suggest that encouraging residents to Mount Popocatépetl in Mexico is linked to socio-economic and be more involved in planning for an evacuation may be helpful in political forces. Schlehe (2005), Chester (2005a) and Bankoff encouraging a greater understanding and confidence in any plans. 166 Editorial

It is therefore important to understand how messages about dangerous, the structural constraints people living around risk are formed and transformed as they move within a society. Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines experience result in decisions Haynes et al. investigate how the risk information assumes and behaviour that appears irrational but once are more fully different forms and meanings as it is produced and reproduced by explored, within their social and economic settings, emerge as different groups in a society, in this case on the Caribbean Island rational and explicable. Lavigne et al., similarly, find that in of Montserrat. They find a tension between local politicians who central Java, Indonesia, behaviour that increases volcanic risk is are trying to avoid being seen to make unpopular decisions and closely intertwined with the religious and cultural traditions of scientists who are trying to resist being drawn into making policy the area but importantly it is poverty that drives individuals to decisions rather than simply providing ‘neutral’ scientific based exploit ostensibly hazardous areas of the volcano but which predictions of risk. They also show that people living under generate risks which are no greater than those emerging from volcanic threat are actively considering the benefits associated everyday struggles for a livelihood. Dibben argues that it is not with more risky behaviour and this in turn influences con- only in situations of poverty that risk increasing behaviour seems ceptualisation of risk. Paton et al. discuss the problem of trying to dislocated from the perception of risk. He finds for Mount Etna, increase a population's level of preparedness. They argue that a in Italy, that people are choosing to live in situations of volcanic population's intention to prepare is in fact not strongly related to risk because of the benefits it brings them in a wide variety of the experience of volcanic activity but is instead influenced by ways. Any feelings of discomfort arising from living in a social processes: the belief in the benefits of mitigation, situation of volcanic risk are reduced through collectively held community involvement and trust in institutions. Perry and representations of a beneficial landscape, protection and safety. Lindell explore wider sets of adjustments to hazards. They The view, that it is inappropriate to consider the ‘volcanic’ examine people's self-protective behaviour to three hazards: aspect of studies of volcanic-human interactions as always or wildfires, earthquakes and volcanic activity, in two Californian largely negative is taken forward by Dove and by Kelman and communities in the USA. They find that levels of risk perception Mather. They point out that this may not be the most appropriate are not predictive of the number of adjustments made but that starting point for research but one which is encouraged by individual's sense of responsibility for their own protection and particular institution positions. Dove illustrates this through a experience of property damage are. case study of Merapi in Indonesia. He contrasts the representa- A different kind of evacuation context is explored by Leonard tions of the volcano held by the Indonesian government, which et al.. They examine the tourist and ski complex on the slopes of is short term, ‘technologising’ and ‘exocitising’, with that of the Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand. The particular problems people of Turgo which in contrast is longterm and ‘domesticat- planners have in this context is the transitory nature of the ing’. This challenges researchers to be sensitive to their own population. As a result a great deal of the responsibility for positionality, the extent to which they may be adopting successful evacuations lies with the staff of the tourist facilities. particular socially constructed worldviews which may be Leonard et al. find that although perception of the level of the significantly different to peoples who are affected by the risk is accurate, this does not necessary lead to effective suggestions emanating from their research. One way to avoid behaviour. A five-step model for effective warning is proposed. imposing a negative frame of reference is to examine volcanic Religion, as an aid to understanding, societies living in and risk as a manageable risk as are the many other risks impacting around volcanoes may have been an understudied phenomena. life. Kelman and Mather suggest that existing management Papers by Gregg et al. and Chester et al., in this edition, extend frameworks could be applied to volcanic environments, in our knowledge by exploring the relationship between religion particular a sustainable livelihood approach could be used as an and volcanic risk perception, Gregg et al. within the context of organising principle. traditional Hawaiian beliefs in the 1960s and Chester et al. focusing on, in particular, southern Italy. Gregg et al. find a 5. Volcanic risk perception and beyond complex set of reactions to various volcanic mitigation measures around Kīlauea, but discover a strong negative The set of papers in this special issue of the JVGR represent a reaction to bombing amongst those expressing a belief in the unique collaboration between the proponents of different para- volcano goddess Pele. Chester et al. argue that the importance of digms of risk and disaster research whilst also coming from a contemporary religious beliefs in understanding people's wide range of disciplinary backgrounds. This open dialogue behaviour in volcanic environments may be hidden both by enables the identification of some of the key issues for disaster researchers' post-enlightenment theoretical stances but also the risk reduction. related unease some respondents may have in expressing complex religious responses to volcanic risk to researchers. When 5.1. Risk perception is important peoples' beliefs are revealed through careful research, the religious is still found to be important. From the case studies presented in this volume, it is evident that Gaillard, Lavigne et al. and Dibben all reflect on the impor- volcanic risk perception is of importance when studying and tance of understanding how volcanic risk perception and be- managing volcanic risks. Carlino et al. show that in some cases, it haviour sits within wider social and economic contexts. Gaillard may be a significant factor in explaining people's behaviour. If risk demonstrates that even when volcanic hazards, in this case the perception is not directly connected to people's behaviour, it is threat from lahars, are clear, frequently recurring and very individuals' experience of previous eruptions that may be critical in Editorial 167 shaping adjustment to the threat as shown by Perry and Lindell. In 5.6. Effective risk reduction requires close collaboration line with this, information campaigns may raise people's between threatened communities and authorities perception of risk and help in reducing their vulnerability in the face of volcanic hazards (Carlino et al.; Solana et al.). However In order for the authorities to fully appraise the local context of Haynes et al., Perry and Lindell and Paton et al. all warn that there volcanic risk, local authorities have to work in close collaboration is not a simple relationship between information and behaviour. with local communities. It will help them in defining people's risk Any programme of education must take into account the complex perception and the weight of structural constraints such as social processes discussed in all of the papers in this special edition. livelihoods alternatives or the cultural attachment to places. Paton et al., Barberi et al., Kelman et Mather and Leonard et al. show 5.2. Risk perception should be considered in its wider context how such a close collaboration may contribute to overcoming differences between people's behaviour and authorities' policies. There is enough evidence to suggest that risk perception has to be considered in its larger context. In this volume, Dibben, The identification of these issues argues for a reappraisal of the Chester et al., Dove, Kelman and Mather, Gaillard, Lavigne et al. agenda for reducing disaster risks associated with volcanic and Haynes et al. all demonstrate that structural factors may hazards which is still basically hazard-focused (Chester, 2005b). surpass risk perception in importance in defining people's It points towards the importance of the Hyogo Framework for behaviour. These factors are cultural, social, economic and Action (HFA) 2005-2015 agreed upon by the representatives of political in nature. They are independent of the volcanic threats 168 countries which participated to the World Conference on and act as powerful constraints to people's decision making and Disaster Reduction, held in Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, in January 2005 capacity to protect themselves. (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2005). The HFA stresses the importance of: 5.3. Structural constraints to people's behaviour are powerful in both developing and industrialized countries 1. making disaster risk reduction a priority; 2. knowing the risks (in its whole dimension not only its A significant contribution of this special issue is that it shows hazard-related dimension) and enhancing early warning that those constraints are valid for both developing and indus- system; trialized countries, in Indonesia, the Philippines, Italy, Mon- 3. building understanding and awareness using local and tserrat and elsewhere. This is an important finding as it is often scientific knowledge; assumed that what should be done in developing countries may 4. reducing the underlying, hazard-independent, factors of risk; not necessarily apply to industrialized countries. In this volume, 5. strengthening disaster preparedness for effective response at Dibben shows that the search for a better quality of life is all levels. pushing people to move out of the city of Catania toward the foothills of Mount Etna despite obvious volcanic threats and This 10-year agenda for disaster risk reduction involves alternative, ‘safer’, sites for building being available. Similarly blending both hazard-related and non hazard-related measures. Chester et al. point out that religion may similarly be a powerful It sets the threat from disasters beyond the sole dimension of constraint to people behaviour not solely in pre-industrialized natural hazards and locates it clearly within people's vulner- societies but also in Europe. ability in the face of nature's threat. It recommends culturally sensitive mitigation measures which consider the cultural, 5.4. People's livelihoods are central to risk analysis social, economic and political context. The HFA further emphasizes the importance of people's livelihoods and asserts Kelman and Mather, Dove, Lavigne et al., Haynes et al. and that natural hazards cannot be prevented, but it is possible to Gaillard show that the first determinant of people's behaviour in reduce their impacts by reducing the vulnerability of people and the face of volcanic hazards is often livelihoods. Individuals their livelihoods (United Nations International Strategy for may choose to risk a potential eruption for the assurance of a Disaster Reduction, 2005, p. 4). better everyday life because it allows access to sustainable This special issue of JVGR is our small contribution to livelihoods. Kelman and Mather point out that this is true for achieving the goals of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005- both developing and industrialized countries. 2015. It has modestly contributed to the exploration of new grounds for the study of volcanic risks and open the debate on 5.5. Importance of place how to further improve risk management in volcanic environment. Hopefully many more studies will build on this contribution This special issue of JVGR emphasizes that each volcanic and further raise our understanding of people's behaviour in the context has its own physical environment, cultural heritage, face of volcanic hazards. society and political economy. 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