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ASSESSING EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS in MAJOR EASTERN US CITIES Mercedes Lissette Gomez-Jacobo Southern Illinois University Carbondale, [email protected]

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ASSESSING EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS in MAJOR EASTERN US CITIES Mercedes Lissette Gomez-Jacobo Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Clima.Mercedes@Gmail.Com Southern Illinois University Carbondale OpenSIUC Theses Theses and Dissertations 12-1-2017 ASSESSING EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN MAJOR EASTERN US CITIES Mercedes Lissette Gomez-Jacobo Southern Illinois University Carbondale, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/theses Recommended Citation Gomez-Jacobo, Mercedes Lissette, "ASSESSING EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN MAJOR EASTERN US CITIES" (2017). Theses. 2236. http://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/theses/2236 This Open Access Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses and Dissertations at OpenSIUC. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses by an authorized administrator of OpenSIUC. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ASSESSING EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN MAJOR EASTERN US CITIES by Mercedes Gomez Jacobo B.S., Southern Illinois University, 2013 A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Master of Science. Department of Geography and Environmental Resources in the Graduate School Southern Illinois University Carbondale December 2017 THESIS APPROVAL ASSESING EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN MAJOR EASTERN US CITIES By Mercedes Lissette Gomez Jacobo A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in the field of Geography and Environmental Resources Approved by: Dr. Justin Schoof, Chair Dr. Trenton Ford Dr. Aldo Migone Graduate School Southern Illinois University Carbondale March 3, 2017 AN ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS OF Mercedes L. Gomez Jacobo, for the Master of Science degree in Geography and Environmental Resources, presented on September 2016, at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. TITLE: ASSESING EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN MAJOR EASTERN US CITIES MAJOR PROFESSOR: Dr. Justin Schoof Summer (JJA) temperature (T) and equivalent temperature (TE) for 18 of the largest cities in the eastern United States are investigated for two time periods: 1948- 2014 and 1973-2014. Because temperature provides an incomplete description of lower tropospheric heat content, we supplement with TE, which also accounts for the energy associated with moisture. An auxiliary investigation using air mass data from the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) augments the investigation of T and TE trends. The trend analysis revealed significant trends in Tmin at all stations over the 67-year time period and over most stations for the shorter (41-year) period. Minimum TE likewise increases nearly everywhere in the longer series, but at only around half of the stations in the shorter series. Stations with increasing TE in the shorter period are primarily coastal or located in the southern and upper Midwest, where there has also been a noticeable lack of warming. Our results also exhibit a decrease in the diurnal TE range that accompanies the documented decrease in diurnal temperature range over the same period. Trends in T and TE are evaluated in the context of changes in air mass frequency. A heat wave analysis was also conducted to identify changes in intensity and frequency using T and TE Overall, our findings suggest that TE provides a more comprehensive perspective on recent climate change than T alone. With heat wave i frequency and intensity projected to increase, we recommend adoption of TE to account for changes in total surface heat content. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................ 5 CHAPTER 3 METHODS AND DATA ............................................................... 20 CHAPTER 4 RESULTS ................................................................................... 29 CHAPTER 5 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION ............................................. 45 REFERENCES ................................................................................................. 51 APPENDIX A ................................................................................................... 64 APPENDIX B ................................................................................................... 76 APPENDIX C ................................................................................................... 88 APPENDIX D ................................................................................................. 100 APPENDIX E .................................................................................................. 111 APPENDIX F .................................................................................................. 124 iii APPENDIX G ................................................................................................. 136 APPENDIX H ................................................................................................. 148 APPENDIX I ................................................................................................... 160 APPENDIX J .................................................................................................. 175 APPENDIX K ................................................................................................. 187 APPENDIX L .................................................................................................. 197 APPENDIX M ................................................................................................. 210 APPENDIX N ................................................................................................. 223 APPENDIX P .................................................................................................. 248 APPENDIX Q ................................................................................................. 261 APPENDIX R ................................................................................................. 274 APPENDIX S .................................................................................................. 287 APPENDIX T .................................................................................................. 288 APPENDIX U ................................................................................................. 289 APPENDIX V .................................................................................................. 290 VITA 291 iv LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE Table 1 ......................................................................................................................... 21 Table 2 ......................................................................................................................... 25 Table 3 ......................................................................................................................... 25 Table 4 ......................................................................................................................... 31 Table 5 ......................................................................................................................... 34 Table 6 ......................................................................................................................... 37 Table 7 ......................................................................................................................... 39 v LIST OF FIGURES FIGURES PAGE Figure 1 ....................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 2 ....................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 3 ....................................................................................................................... 30 Figure 4 ....................................................................................................................... 32 Figure 5 ....................................................................................................................... 33 Figure 6 ....................................................................................................................... 36 Figure 7 ....................................................................................................................... 38 Figure 8 ....................................................................................................................... 38 Figure 9 ....................................................................................................................... 39 Figure 10 ..................................................................................................................... 41 Figure 11 ..................................................................................................................... 42 Figure 12 ..................................................................................................................... 43 Figure 13 ..................................................................................................................... 44 vi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Extreme heat events in the United States are responsible for more deaths on average than all other fatal weather events combined (National Weather Service, 2014). During the years 1999-2009 the United States experienced extreme heat events that claimed 7,233 lives, which is an average of 658 heat-related deaths per year (US Department of Health and Services, morbidity and mortality report, 2013). Many of these deaths often occur in large
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