Management Earnings Forecasts As Anticipatory Impression
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MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECASTS AS ANTICIPATORY IMPRESSION MANAGEMENT by KEVIN WESLEY CAIN (Under the Direction of Scott D. Graffin) ABSTRACT The effects of impression management tactics are poorly understood when used in anticipation of events that trigger stakeholder reactions. I examine voluntary firm disclosures - management earnings forecasts - to determine whether they are used as anticipatory impression management tactics. I found that firms are more likely to announce surprise earnings when they disclosed management earnings forecasts in advance of the announcement. Salient stakeholders, such as institutional investors and analysts, influence the likelihood and candor of management earnings forecasts. I compare the effects of management earnings forecasts and the effects of a trigger - surprise earnings - on investor reactions, and test the impact of prior management forecasts on subsequent forecasts. Management earnings forecasts cause more abnormal investor reactions than surprise earnings, and those reactions are influenced by the frequency and accuracy of prior firm forecasts. The antecedents and consequence of management earnings forecasts in this study have interesting implications for impression management theory, managers, stakeholders and public policy. INDEX WORDS: Impression management, anticipatory impression management, management earnings forecasts, earnings surprises, earnings guidance, investor reactions MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECASTS AS ANTICIPATORY IMPRESSION MANAGEMENT By KEVIN WESLEY CAIN A.B., The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2005 M.B.A., Wake Forest University, 2009 A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of The University of Georgia in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY ATHENS, GEORGIA 2014 © 2014 Kevin Wesley Cain All Rights Reserved MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECASTS AS ANTICIPATORY IMPRESSION MANAGEMENT by KEVIN WESLEY CAIN Major Professor: Scott D. Graffin Committee: Michael D. Pfarrer Jerayr Haleblian Electronic Version Approved: Maureen Grasso Dean of the Graduate School The University of Georgia May 2014 DEDICATION I want to dedicate this manuscript to my wife, Shannon, and my unborn daughter, Morgan. I am incredibly lucky to have you all in my life, and I love you both more than words can express. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I want to thank acknowledge and thank all of the current and former faculty members in the Department of Management at The University of Georgia who have spent their time shaping me into the scholar I am today. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................ v! LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................... viii! LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... ix CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1! Research Context .......................................................................................................... 5! Chapter Summary and Outline of the Remaining Chapters .......................................... 8! 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................. 10! Impression Management ............................................................................................. 10! Anticipatory Impression Management ........................................................................ 14! Management Earnings Forecasts ................................................................................ 17! Management Earnings Forecasts & Anticipatory Impression Management .............. 24! Earnings Surprises ...................................................................................................... 25! 3 THEORY AND HYPOTHESES ...................................................................................... 29! Research Setting: Earnings Forecasts as Anticipatory Impression Management ....... 29! Earnings Forecasts as Anticipatory Impression Management .................................... 30! Stakeholder Salience and AIM ................................................................................... 34! The Influence of AIM on Stakeholder Reactions ....................................................... 39! AIM Accuracy and Frequency .................................................................................... 45! vi 4 METHODS ....................................................................................................................... 57! Sample ......................................................................................................................... 57! Data Sources ............................................................................................................... 57! Measures ..................................................................................................................... 58! Estimation Procedures ................................................................................................ 65! 5 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 69! 6 DISCUSSION ................................................................................................................... 88! Limitations and Implications of Non-findings ............................................................ 90! Extensions and Directions for Future Research .......................................................... 93! Contributions to Practice and Policy ........................................................................... 96! 7 CONCLUDING REMARKS ............................................................................................ 98! REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................. 99! vii LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1: Descriptive Statistics and Correlations ........................................................................... 77 Table 2: Results of the t-Tests Comparing the Frequencies of Earnings Surprises Based on Firm Disclosures of Management Earnings Forecasts .......................................................................... 78 Table 3: Results of Panel Logistic Regression and Panel Probit Regression Analyses of the Effects of Salient Stakeholders on Firm Disclosure of Management Earnings Forecasts ............ 79 Table 4: Results of Panel Ordered Logistic Regression and Panel Ordered Probit Regression Analyses of Effects of Salient Stakeholders on the Type of Management Earnings Forecasts Firms Disclose .............................................................................................................................. 80 Table 5: Results of Feasible Generalized Least Squares Estimation Analyses Comparing the Effects of Management Earnings Forecasts and Surprise Earnings ............................................. 81 Table 6: Results of Feasible Generalized Least Squares Estimation Analyses of the Effects of Prior Forecasts on Investor Reactions during Subsequent Earnings Surprises ............................. 82 Table 7: Results of Feasible Generalized Least Squares Estimation Analyses of the Moderation Effects of the Frequency and Accuracy of Prior Firm Forecasts on the Relationship between Management Earnings Forecasts and Investor Reactions ............................................................. 83 viii LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1: Comparisons of the Frequency of Surprise Earnings based on Firm Disclosures of Management Earnings Forecasts .................................................................................................. 49 Figure 2: Expected Frequencies of Surprise Earnings for the Information Asymmetry and Impression Management Perspectives of Management Earnings Forecasts ................................ 50 Figure 3: Predicted Effects of Salient Stakeholders on the Likelihood and Type of Firm Management Earnings Forecast .................................................................................................... 51 Figure 4: Model of the Causal Pathways for the Effects of Management Earnings Forecasts and Surprise Announcements on Investor Reactions .......................................................................... 52 Figure 5: Predicted Effects of Management Earnings Forecasts and Surprise Earnings on Investor Reactions ....................................................................................................................................... 53 Figure 6: Predicted Effects of Disclosing Management Earnings Forecasts and Subsequently Announcing Surprise Earnings on Investor Reactions ................................................................. 54 Figure 7: Model of the Moderation Effects of Frequency and Accuracy of Prior Firm Forecasts on the Relationship Between Management Earnings Forecasts and Investor Reactions .............. 55 Figure 8: Predicted Moderation Effects of the Frequency and Accuracy of Prior Firm Forecasts on the Relationship between Management Earnings Forecasts and Investor Reactions .............. 56 Figure 9: The Moderation Effect of the Frequency of Prior Firm Forecasts on the Relationship between Negative