Northern Rivers Housing Study
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Northern Rivers Housing Study Report commissioned by North Coast Community Housing December 2013 Dr Tony Gilmour Housing Action Network 13 December 2013 ISBN 978-0-9874308-3-0 Published by Housing Action Network Pty Ltd. Studio 56 / 61 Marlborough Street, Surry Hills NSW 2010 Prepared by Dr Tony Gilmour, Housing Action Network, with assistance from George Porter www.housingaction.net.au Northern Rivers Housing Study – December 2013 2 Contents Executive Summary 6 Definitions 8 1 Background 9 1.1 Regional Characteristics 9 1.2 Regional planning 10 1.3 Planning for affordable housing 12 2 Regional Social and Economic Drivers 15 2.1 Migration 15 2.2 Population forecasts 15 2.3 Housing demand 17 2.4 Housing supply 18 3 Housing Market Analysis 22 3.1 Existing housing stock and tenure 22 3.2 Regional housing costs 23 3.3 Housing affordability 23 3.4 Social housing 29 3.5 Demand for social housing 33 3.6 Specific housing needs 36 4 Conclusions 39 4.1 Regional issues 39 4.2 Housing supply 39 4.3 Special housing needs 40 References 42 Northern Rivers Housing Study – December 2013 3 List of Tables Table 1: Council affordable housing strategies 12 Table 2: Regional population projections to 2036 16 Table 3: Household composition, 2011 17 Table 4: Population by age, 2011 18 Table 5: Housing demand to 2036 18 Table 6: Housing supply and demand 19 Table 7: Occupied dwellings supply and demand 19 Table 8: Housing type, 2011 22 Table 9: Housing tenure, 2011 22 Table 10: Household weekly income, 2006-11 24 Table 11: Selected employment, 2011 26 Table 12: Occupation sample, 2011 26 Table 13: Renters in housing stress, 2011 27 Table 14: Affordable rental stock, Sep 2012 27 Table 15: Purchasers in housing stress, 2011 28 Table 16: Affordable purchase stock, Sep 2012 28 Table 17: Social housing stock at Jun 2012 30 Table 18: Social housing mix, 2007 31 Table 19: NRAS progress to Mar 2013 32 Table 20: Social housing waiting list, Jun 2012 33 Table 21: Applicants housed, year to Jun 2012 34 Table 22: Homelessness 2011 37 Northern Rivers Housing Study – December 2013 4 List of Figures Figure 1: Study area 9 Figure 2: Far North Coast plan 11 Figure 3: Mid North Coast, northern section 11 Figure 4: Population forecasts in study area 16 Figure 5: Population change, 2001-2036 17 Figure 6: Property rental costs, 2008-12 23 Figure 7: Property sales prices, 2009-12 23 Figure 8: Households with incomes below $300/week 25 Figure 9: Weekly household income 2011 25 Figure 10: Social housing % of rental dwellings, 2011 29 Figure 11: Social housing waiting times, June 2012 34 Figure 12: Social housing % of rental dwellings, 2011 35 Northern Rivers Housing Study – December 2013 5 Executive Summary North Coast Community Housing (‘NCCH’) The make-up of the housing stock is not matching operates in a part of NSW where population has these changing demographics, with most new grown fast in recent years, and this trend will homes having 3 to 5 bedrooms. continue over the next 25 years. The region will Much of the more affordable housing in the experience increasing issues with housing study area is not well located for lower income affordability which will impact most on lower households. It is also not close to jobs. New income households and disadvantaged groups. housing is generally being built in areas with few Population is predicted to increase by a third facilities and limited public transport access. across the study area by 2036. The strongest The 2011 Census highlights the slow rate of new growth will be in Tweed, close to the Queensland property development. Between 2006 and 2011 border, and in coastal areas around Byron Bay and the supply of new dwellings was only around two Ballina. These will be some of the fastest growing thirds the level required to meet Government’s areas in Australia. projections for population growth. The housing Growth in South East Queensland (SEQ) will supply figures are even worse than this as an impact the northern section of the study area, increasing number of properties, especially on especially northern Tweed LGA. SEQ is expected the coast, are used as second and holiday homes. to house over 1 million extra people in the next Between 2006 and 2011 there was a reduction in 20 years which will impose social, economic and occupied dwellings of 1,351 in the study area. environmental pressures further south. There is particular pressure on private rental Sea-change migration of retirees is a significant markets, with most LGAs in the study area having factor in the region. The greatest housing demand higher rates of housing stress than NSW. Large will continue to be in coastal areas, with limited numbers of purchasers also face affordability growth in the hinterlands and stable or falling problems, with those on very low and low incomes populations further inland. In coastal areas (below 80% of local medium incomes) locked residential parks and mobile home villages are out of home purchase. an important component of local affordable In the Northern Rivers region, the main driver of housing, though they will continue to be under affordability issues is lower incomes. Regional threat from development pressures. incomes are rising at around the average rate Byron, Ballina and Tweed LGAs are already among for NSW, though remain much lower in absolute the most unaffordable in regional NSW. Predicted numbers. Weekly wages in the study area in 2011 high levels of migration to these areas will lead to ranged from $714 in Kyogle to $903 in Ballina. escalating housing prices unless there is a large These contrast with the Gold Coast ($1,173), amount of additional supply. Any worsening of Sydney ($1,447) and Brisbane ($1,388). External the affordability of home ownership, which is purchasers will be better funded for house buying already very limited, will put further pressure in the study area than locals. on rental markets. State Government policies set targets for future The composition of the population continues to levels of housing supply, but not for particular change. Nationally, the proportion of older people price points or size of property. Given the cost of in the population is growing each year, and this producing new housing, and the market prefer- trend is particularly notable in parts of the study ence for larger detached dwellings, market mecha- area which are favoured by retirees. nisms may continue to fail to produce Northern Rivers Housing Study – December 2013 6 affordable homes. Hence an increase in housing public, private and not-for-profit sectors. State supply in faster growing coastal areas may have Government will need to establish more specific little impact on affordability. regional policies, and concentrate resources on improving regional infrastructure. Social rental housing is already in short supply in the study area, at between 2.2% (Byron LGA) and In larger residential development sites in 4.8% (Ballina LGA) of total housing stock in 2011. prime coastal locations, community housing The average for NSW is 5%. Government initiatives organisations may have the opportunity to receive like NRAS have produced few new affordable affordable housing properties supported by rental properties, and funds for social housing developer contributions. New properties need to construction or acquisition are extremely limited. be more geared to occupation, not investment, to As a result, the proportion of social and affordable reverse the trends between 2006 and 2011. housing looks set to continue falling from already There remains a continuing need to renew public low levels. stock properties, and move to mixed tenure Across NSW, only about 10% of people on the communities to reduce concentrations of social housing waiting list are housed each year, disadvantage. NSW Government should be and the list continues to grow. An increasing encouraged to continue the transfer of property proportion of lettings are required for priority management, as occurredin Byron LGA. The applicants. Most regions in the study area have a distance of the Northern Rivers from Sydney may waiting time over five years, and there is a lack of be an advantage in negotiations. small units for single people and couples. Progressive social enterprises such as NCCH The issue of social disadvantage is particularly are well placed to use both traditional and important to community housing providers such market-based approaches to deliver the regional as NCCH. Due to the residualisation of social social and community outcomes required by housing, most new applicants have complex Government. Increasing affordable housing in needs rather than simply being low income. This the fast growing Northern Rivers requires using provides greater challenges than in the past in NCCH’s strong local connections, local leadership supporting tenants and maintaining tenancies. and demonstrated experience in working through cross-sector networks. RECOMMENDATIONS Some councils in the study area, most recently Lismore, have adopted progressive affordable housing policies. These will need to be implemented through partnerships, suggesting an increasing role for the Northern Rivers Housing Forum. Good practice will need to be spread to councils who have so far been less supportive of affordable housing or who have recently reduced funding for these types of initiatives. Efforts will also be needed to ensure the supply of new properties meets demand not just in terms of numbers, but also size, location and affordability. This will require close collaboration between the Northern