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Meredith (Pdf) A Report: A RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS and ACTION PLAN presented to: The Greater Meredith Program and The New Hampshire Main Street Center Prepared by N. David Milder and Bill Ryan December 2006 ©DANTH, Inc. All Rights Reserved TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1 Chapter I. Introduction 4 Chapter II. Meredith’s Retailing And The Competition 18 Chapter III. The Hotel Guest And Second-Home Owner Markets 35 Chapter IV. The Residential Markets 53 Chapter V. Bringing The Market Analysis Together 63 Chapter VI. Action Plan CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION This study was conducted to better understand market conditions and consumers in the Meredith area. Market data was collected and analyzed to develop recommendations for downtown and community economic revitalization efforts. The research presented in this report is intended to be used to assist existing businesses, prospective entrepreneurs, governmental officials, realtors, property owners, developers, educators, business counselors, and others in the community. A. The Reconnaissance DANTH’s first assignment in Meredith was a reconnaissance on Dec 8-9, 2005 during which DANTH made a field visit to Meredith and some competitive shopping districts, met with local business people and reviewed available information. DANTH’s reconnaissance was initially predicated by the desire of the leadership of the Greater Meredith Program (GMP) to improve the strength and quality of the retailing within their program’s district, especially along Main Street. During the visit additional specific questions were posed about: • The possibility of attracting national retail chains to the district? • Other types of retail operations or niches that could make Meredith a more attractive and interesting place for shoppers? • The importance of population density and commercial space characteristics in recruitment efforts? • How to take advantage of all the affluent second-home owners in the area in recruitment efforts? • The information the Greater Meredith Program needs to provide to retail tenant prospects? DANTH submitted its report on the reconnaissance on Dec. 20, 2005. It detailed DANTH’s observations about Meredith’s retailing, which were based on the best data available at that time and identified several hypotheses about potential niche growth opportunities that could be more reliably assessed with the collection of additional information. B. The Current Project The GMP’s leadership was particularly interested in determining the potential impacts of second-home owners on retail growth as discussed in DANTH’s 2005 report. In February of 2006, DANTH submitted a proposal for a follow-up project to conduct a more in-depth market analysis and to develop an action plan based on that analysis. The major work elements of the proposal were: • Analysis of existing businesses to identify existing niches and clusters 1 • An assessment of existing commercial spaces • A Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis of the size and shape of the local resident trade areas. • GIS analysis of the visitor market (place of origin). • GIS analysis of primary residential neighborhoods of second home owners (place of origin). • Demographic, lifestyle and spending analysis of trade area residents, second home owners and visitor market • Niche Targeting: identifying existing niches that can be grown and new niches that have development potential. • Recommended specific action steps for marketing each of the targeted niches • Design a recruitment program to attract quality firms for each of the targeted niches • Recommend public improvements that would strengthen Meredith’s retailing • Recommend feasible development projects that would support and stimulate retail growth in Meredith Work on the project started in June, 2006. The project team included N. David Milder, DANTH’s president, and Bill Ryan, , a University of Wisconsin-Extension educator specializing in downtown economic revitalization. His work was performed specifically for DANTH. The University of Wisconsin-Extension was not associated with this study. Together, Milder and Ryan have over 50 years of experience in the field of downtown revitalization. Mr. Milder is a specialist in niche-based downtown retail revitalization strategies, business recruitment and redevelopment. His publications include numerous books, monographs and articles, such as: • Downtown Business Recruitment • Niche Strategies for Downtown Revitalization • Tools And Techniques For Financing Downtown Revitalization Mr. Ryan is specializes in downtown economic revitalization and tourism business development. He is very adept at using ESRI’s data sources and interpreting its Tapestry lifestyle data. His publications include: • Downtown and Business District Market Analysis (On-line Toolbox) • Tourism and Retail Development – a guidebook to help local retailers attract tourists to their businesses • Let’s Talk Business – a monthly e-newsletter for downtown and economic development leaders working to strengthen retail and service businesses in their community. 2 C. Objectives and Caveats DANTH’s primary objective was to produce a number of action recommendations that the GMP could implement that would be effective in stimulating retail growth in Meredith and strengthen its Main Street. DANTH’s second objective was to base these recommendations on the best possible information it could obtain. However, this objective requires some caveats. While the research effort reported in this document is certainly more in- depth and robust than DANTH was able to do on its reconnaissance, the current project had definite budgetary constraints and some types of information were not available from any source. For example, the Bureau of the Census has not issued any local data from the 2002 Economic Census about retail sales for Meredith and other communities of its size. Hard data on tourist and second- home owner retail spending also was not available. In both of these instances the DANTH project team devised ways of making estimates, which are plainly and frequently described as “ballpark” in the narrative below. The DANTH team acknowledges that these estimates are imperfect and should be treated with some caution, but feels that they are sufficiently accurate to be illuminating and capable of being action-guiding. The DANTH team also has tried to creatively use less expensive research techniques, such as the analysis of the Tapestry lifestyle data to get at some of the information that opinion surveys are usually used to uncover. The DANTH project team engaged very sparingly in “gap” analyses of Meredith’s retail markets. Such research looks at the supply and demand sides of a trade area’s retail market to discover where gaps or growth opportunities exist. Both members of the DANTH team have independently over the years developed great skepticism about the data that are available about the supply side. Further, the significance of the second homeowner and hotel guest market segments make gap analyses even more difficult to conduct in Meredith. While some work- arounds are possible, they are very time consuming and expensive and best applied for just a few types of stores or merchandise lines. The only gap analysis in this report covers the potential for attracting another supermarket to Meredith. D. Acknowledgements The DANTH team would like to especially thank Jeanie Forrester, the Main Street Program Manager, Rusty McLear, the proprietor of Meredith Lodging Properties and James Commerford, the Town Assessor for their strong support and assistance in this research effort. DANTH would also like to thank all of the other local businesspeople and town officials who met with us or otherwise helped our research effort. 3 CHAPTER II MEREDITH’S RETAILING AND THE COMPETITION A. Meredith’s Shopping Nodes The Town of Meredith has five shopping nodes: • Olde Province Common, a strip center with about six stores along Rte 104. Among them are a 16,000 SF supermarket, Jackson Star, and a state liquor store • Main Street with eight restaurants, 15 retail shops and 15 service operations. It has some attractive buildings and facades, nice scale and a good ambiance for walking. The Town Hall, Post Office and Library also anchor this node. Unfortunately, Main Street completely lacks visibility from the main traffic arteries, Routes 3 and 25, that pass nearby. • The Shops At Meredith Place is the former location of a Harley-Davidson dealership that has been converted into commercial spaces suited for office, personal services or retail use. It is on Maple Street near the end of Main Street, close to the Historic Railway and Rte 3. It has a pylon sign to increase its visibility from Rte 3. Current tenants include Sylvan Learning Center and Curves, but much vacant space remains. It is walkable from the Main Street node, but a residential area intervenes so Main Street strollers may be unaware of it • Mills Falls Marketplace, a 15 store center attached to the Mills Falls Hotel. It has many of the strongest retail operations in the area, a waterfall, and views of Lake Winnipesaukee. It is an easy walk to Main Street. A parking lot separates it from the sidewalk running along Rte 3. • Meredith Shopping Center on Rte 25 near its intersection with Rte 3. This is the most heavily trafficked intersection in Meredith and among the most congested in the state. This strip center has a small movie theater, a Brooks Pharmacy and two fairly large vacant spaces of 10,000 SF and 12,000 SF. Many other very important retail operations are located outside these
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