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Challenges and Opportunities for the Puerto Rico Economy a Review of Evidence and Options Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017

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Challenges and Opportunities for the Puerto Rico Economy a Review of Evidence and Options Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 Challenges and Opportunities for the Puerto Rico Economy A Review of Evidence and Options Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 CRAIG A. BOND, AARON STRONG, TROY D. SMITH, MEGAN ANDREW, JOHN S. CROWN, KATHRYN A. EDWARDS, GABRIELLA C. GONZALEZ, ITALO A. GUTIERREZ, LAUREN KENDRICK, JILL E. LUOTO, KYLE PRATT, KARISHMA PATEL, ALEXANDER D. ROTHENBERG, MARK STALCZYNSKI, PATRICIA K. TONG, MELANIE A. ZABER HS AC HOMELAND SECURITY OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS CENTER An FFRDC operated by the RAND Corporation under contract with DHS rr2600_cover_v16.indd 1,3 8/18/20 7:46 AM Published in 2020 Preface On August 8, 2018, the government of Puerto Rico submitted to Congress an economic and disaster recovery plan, as required by the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018. Under contract with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) provided substantial support in developing the plan by soliciting and integrating inputs from a wide variety of stakeholders, contributing analysis where needed, and assisting in drafting the plan. The plan included an overview of damage and needs, courses of action to meet those needs, costs of the courses of action, and potential funding mechanisms for those costs. To support federal agencies evaluating and funding recovery actions, HSOAC is releasing this detailed volume for the economic sector. The purpose of this document is to give decisionmakers more detail on the conditions in Puerto Rico prior to the 2017 hurricane season, the damage from Hurricanes Irma and Maria, the courses of action identified to help the sector (and, more broadly, Puerto Rico) recover in a resilient manner, potential funding mechanisms, and considerations for implementers as they move forward. This volume is specifically focused on the preexisting conditions and policies that contributed to the economic contraction in Puerto Rico before Hurricanes Irma and Maria and the potential actions that could be taken to promote growth in the post-storm period. More information on HSOAC’s contribution to the recovery plan development and links to companion documents in this series can be found at www.rand.org/hsoac/puerto-rico -recovery. This document will likely also be of interest to other stakeholders funding or implementing recovery activities in Puerto Rico, including government and local agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector. Furthermore, this body of material contributes to the larger literature about disaster recovery and resilience and may be of interest to other communities planning for or recovering from similar disasters. This research was sponsored by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and conducted within the Strategy, Policy, and Operations Program of the HSOAC federally funded research and development center (FFRDC). About the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center The Homeland Security Act of 2002 (Section 305 of Public Law 107-296, as codified at 6 U.S.C. § 185), authorizes the Secretary of Homeland Security, acting through the Under Secretary for Science and Technology, to establish one or more FFRDCs to provide independent analysis of homeland security issues. The RAND Corporation operates the HSOAC as an FFRDC for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) under contract HSHQDC-16-D-00007. iii The HSOAC FFRDC provides the government with independent and objective analyses and advice in core areas important to the department in support of policy development, decisionmaking, alternative approaches, and new ideas on issues of significance. The HSOAC FFRDC also works with and supports other federal, state, local, tribal, and public- and private-sector organizations that make up the Homeland Security enterprise. The HSOAC FFRDC's research is undertaken by mutual consent with DHS and is organized as a set of discrete tasks. This report presents the results of research and analysis conducted under 70FBR218F00000032, “Puerto Rico Economic and Disaster Recovery Plan: Integration and Analytic Support.” The results presented in this report do not necessarily reflect official DHS opinion or policy. For more information on HSOAC, see www.rand.org/hsoac. For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2600. iv Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................ ix Tables ............................................................................................................................................ xii Summary ...................................................................................................................................... xiv Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ xxi Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. xxiii Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 Objectives of This Report ........................................................................................................... 4 Part I. The Economic History of Puerto Rico ................................................................................. 7 Chapter 2. Brief History of Economic Development in Puerto Rico ............................................. 8 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 15 Chapter 3. Detailed Economic Prestorm Conditions and Trends in Puerto Rico ......................... 17 Gross National Product and Gross Domestic Product .............................................................. 19 GDP by Sector .......................................................................................................................... 23 Economic Activity Index .......................................................................................................... 26 Establishments .......................................................................................................................... 27 Employment and Unemployment ............................................................................................. 30 Establishments, Employment, and Industry Cluster Wage Location Quotients ....................... 38 Tourism ..................................................................................................................................... 42 Trade and Transportation .......................................................................................................... 50 Agriculture ................................................................................................................................ 60 Manufacturing ........................................................................................................................... 65 Fisheries and the Ocean Economy ............................................................................................ 72 The Nonprofit Sector ................................................................................................................ 77 Sociodemographics ................................................................................................................... 80 Puerto Rico Revenue and Public Debt ...................................................................................... 96 Federal Spending and Public Benefits .................................................................................... 103 The Informal Economy of Puerto Rico ................................................................................... 108 Total Formal Plus Informal Economic Activity ..................................................................... 117 Chapter 4. Challenges to Economic Development in Puerto Rico ............................................. 120 Ease of Doing Business .......................................................................................................... 120 Tax Structure ........................................................................................................................... 125 Labor Policy ............................................................................................................................ 127 Transportation and the Jones Act ............................................................................................ 127 v Challenges to the Tourism Sector ........................................................................................... 135 Federal Entitlement Programs ................................................................................................ 136 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 137 Part II. Estimates of Economic Damage from Hurricanes Irma and Maria ................................ 139 Chapter 5. Methodology for Economic Damage Assessment Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria ..................................................................................................................................... 140 Process ...................................................................................................................................
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