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Más Allá De La Crisis: El Futuro Del Sistema Multilateral

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Más Allá De La Crisis: El Futuro Del Sistema Multilateral Más allá de la crisis: el futuro del sistema multilateral EDITA ÍNDICE Fundación Ramón Areces DIRECTOR Raimundo Pérez-Hernández y Torra CONSEJO ASESOR 4 Presentación Federico Mayor Zaragoza, Luis Ángel Rojo por Raimundo Pérez-Hernández y Torra Duque, Julio R. Villanueva, Juan Velarde Fuertes, Jaime Terceiro Lomba, Avelino Corma Canós, Juan González-Palomino Jiménez, Alfonso 6 ¿Cómo podemos mejorar la Novales Cinca gobernabilidad global? DIRECTOR por Ángel Gurría Manuel Azcona SERVICIO DE PUBLICACIONES Una refl exión sobre los grandes retos Consuelo Moreno Hervás 16 de la crisis DISEÑO Y MAQUETACIÓN por Pedro Solbes Omnívoros Marketing y Comunicación ADMINISTRACIÓN Y REDACCIÓN Calle Vitruvio 5. 28006 Madrid. 26 El desafío de la gobernanza mundial Teléfono: 91 515 89 80. Fax: 91 564 52 43 por Carlos Westendorp WEB www.fundacionareces.es 30 Documento de base para la discusión WEB TV por Juan Carlos Sánchez Arnau y www.fundacionareces.tv Rainer Geiger ILUSTRACIÓN DE PORTADA Enrique Rodríguez Pérezagua 54 Paneles FOTÓGRAFOS FRA Alejandro Amador y Antonio Marcos 82 Conclusiones generales FOTOMECÁNICA E IMPRESIÓN: Gamacolor S.G.I. 90 Contribuciones individuales Queda prohibida la reproducción total o parcial de las informaciones de esta publicación, cualquiera que sea el medio de reproducción 151 Programa y biografía de los ponentes a utilizar, sin autorización previa o expresa de Fundación Ramón Areces. La Revista no se hace, necesariamente, responsable de las opiniones de sus colaboradores. Depósito Legal: M - 51664-2009 © 2010 Fundación Ramón Areces 002 174.indd 3 10/1/11 11:09:10 PRESENTACIÓN MAS ALLA DE LA CRISIS: EL FUTURO DEL SISTEMA MULTILATERAL MAS 4 FRA 002 174.indd 4 10/1/11 11:09:14 Por Raimundo Pérez-Hernández y Torra Director. Fundación Ramón Areces e es muy grato presentar el segundo número extraordinario de la Revista de la Fun- M dación Ramón Areces titulado “Más allá de la crisis: el futuro del sistema multilate- ral”, en el que se recogen el desarrollo y las conclusiones del Seminario del mismo nombre orga- nizado por la Fundación Ramón Areces en colaboración con el Centro de Desarrollo de la OCDE y que tuvo lugar en Madrid los días 4 y 5 de octubre del año 2010. Quisiera hacer una mención especial a la colaboración establecida con el Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores y de Cooperación, institución que prestó un valioso apoyo en el desarrollo de la agenda del citado Seminario. Como es conocido, la Fundación Ramón Areces tiene como objetivos principales de actuación el fomento de la investigación científi ca, la formación de capital humano y la divulgación del cono- cimiento. En este marco encaja perfectamente la celebración de este Seminario que ha pretendido proveer un foro de debate e intercambio de ideas y refl exiones sobre el entorno económico actual y sobre el porvenir del sistema multilateral. La Fundación está satisfecha de haber podido congre- gar en Madrid a un número tan importante y relevante de científi cos, universitarios, funcionarios internacionales y expertos en estas materias. Los debates fueron intensos y enriquecedores, como el lector podrá comprobar en este número extraordinario de la revista, en el que se incluyen las principales intervenciones, las contribucio- nes escritas presentadas al Seminario, las conclusiones de los paneles 1 al 4 dedicados respectiva- mente a “Los cambios en la riqueza y la perspectiva mundial para el desarrollo”; “El futuro del sis- tema global de comercio, fi nanzas e inversiones”; “El Planeta Tierra”; “Gobernabilidad y reforma institucional“, y las conclusiones generales extraídas de las deliberaciones habidas. En resumen, la Fundación se congratula de haber contribuido a un intercambio de opiniones serio, profundo y prospectivo sobre unas cuestiones que tanto afectan a la sociedad y al mundo internacional. 5 002 174.indd 5 10/1/11 11:09:17 ¿CÓMO PODEMOS MEJORAR LA GOBERNABILIDAD GLOBAL? Perspectiva de la OCDE Por Ángel Gurría Secretario General de la OCDE ES UN AUTÉNTICO PLACER ESTAR HOY CON TODOS USTEDES y poder ofrecer este discurso de apertura en un Seminario que versará sobre uno de los más acuciantes desafíos a los que nos enfrentamos: cómo promover el multilateralismo y mejorar la gobernabilidad global. Me gustaría expresar mi agradecimiento a la Fundación Ramón Areces por auspiciar este importante Seminario, organizado conjuntamente con el Centro de Desarrollo de la OCDE. Cada generación se pregunta sobre cuál debe ser el futuro del sistema internacional. Así ocurrió después de cada una de las dos guerras mundiales, durante la Guerra Fría, tras la caída del Muro de Berlín y, por supuesto, con ocasión del cambio de siglo. Pero permítanme decirles que, hoy, la ne- cesidad de revaluar la arquitectura de la cooperación internacional resulta más apremiante que nunca. La crisis fi nanciera ha puesto en entredicho el actual orden internacional, “el mundo tal y como lo conocemos”. El multilateralismo nunca volverá a ser igual. Hace tres semanas, en un artículo del Financial Times, Gideon Rachman indicaba que el 15 de septiembre de 2008 ha cambiado más cosas de lo que lo hizo el 11 de septiembre de 2001. En muchos aspectos, tenía razón. La quiebra de Lehman Brothers, la punta del iceberg de la MAS ALLA DE LA CRISIS: EL FUTURO DEL SISTEMA MULTILATERAL MAS 6 FRA 002 174.indd 6 10/1/11 11:09:19 peor crisis de nuestro tiempo, constituyó un La primera sesión de trabajo de este Semi- llamamiento a la toma de conciencia. Es ne- nario examinará el paulatino desplazamiento cesario repensar la arquitectura de la coopera- de la riqueza que está produciéndose desde el ción internacional a la luz de los importantes mundo desarrollado al mundo en desarrollo, cambios estructurales que se han registrado en particular a las economías emergentes. en la economía mundial durante los últimos veinte años. Este año, China no sólo se ha convertido en 7 002 174.indd 7 10/1/11 11:09:22 el mayor exportador mundial, sino que se ha Por una parte, en materia de comercio e in- posicionado como la segunda economía del versión. Aunque ambos elementos resultan mundo, por delante de Japón. Por otra par- más importantes que nunca para promover te, en el primer trimestre de 2010, los países el desarrollo y bienestar, se está registrando en desarrollo poseían aproximadamente dos escaso progreso en la liberalización multi- tercios de las reservas mundiales en moneda lateral del comercio y en la creación de un extranjera, frente a únicamente un tercio en marco internacional para las inversiones. la década anterior. Éstos son sólo dos ejem- plos de la transformación estructural en cur- Estudios de la OCDE muestran que, si los so, en virtud de la cual el centro de gravedad países en desarrollo bajasen sus aranceles al de la economía mundial se está desplazando comercio hasta los niveles aplicados en los rápidamente. Se estima que, hacia 2030, los países del Norte, podrían conseguir una ga- países que actualmente no pertenecen a la nancia adicional de hasta 59.000 millones de OCDE representarán cerca del 60% del PIB dólares. La falta de progreso en las negocia- mundial. ciones agrícolas y en otros ámbitos sensibles ha postergado la conclusión de la Ronda de En numerosas partes del mundo en desarro- Doha, dando lugar a una maraña de acuer- llo, este fenómeno de lo que en inglés se ha dos comerciales bilaterales cuya efectividad dado en llamar “shifting wealth” (cambio de no puede sustituir a la que tendría un enfo- la riqueza) ha conllevado sustanciales mejo- que verdaderamente multilateral. ras del crecimiento y de la reducción de la pobreza. Por ejemplo, el número de personas Al mismo tiempo, necesitamos un conjun- que viven con menos de un dólar al día en to coherente de normas internacionales que el mundo ha caído una cuarta parte desde enmarquen la promoción y protección de la 1990, es decir, una reducción aproximada de inversión, a fi n de que ésta pueda desarro- 500 millones de personas. Un 90% de esas llar su enorme potencial como promotor de personas están en China. desarrollo y bienestar. Desafortunadamente, sigue existiendo una brecha entre las estruc- Sin embargo, los desafíos que despierta esta turas institucionales y las actuales realidades veloz transformación de la economía mun- económicas. dial son igualmente signifi cativos. ¿Cómo garantizar la estabilidad fi nanciera mundial? La lucha contra el cambio climático es otro ¿Cómo abordar el cambio climático? ¿Cómo de los importantes aspectos que examinarán administrar los recursos naturales de forma los participantes de este Seminario, y que sostenible, protegiendo el derecho de todos también requiere una mejor coordinación a una vida decente? Son retos globales que multilateral por parte de los principales emi- demandan respuestas globales, fundadas en sores, incluidas las economías emergentes. el multilateralismo. El mundo cuenta con que los países indus- Las sesiones que se celebrarán esta tarde y trializados emprendan acciones de enverga- mañana estudiarán las implicaciones que tie- dura para reducir las emisiones. Sin embar- nen para la gobernabilidad dos importantes go, los análisis de la OCDE apuntan a que desafíos suscitados por el fenómeno de la “ri- incluso los objetivos más ambiciosos fi jados queza cambiante”. por los países industrializados en Copenha- MAS ALLA DE LA CRISIS: EL FUTURO DEL SISTEMA MULTILATERAL MAS 8 FRA 002 174.indd 8 10/1/11 11:09:24 How can we improve This year China has not only become the world’s big- gest exporter, but it has emerged as the world’s second global governance? largest economy ahead of Japan. On the other hand, in the fi rst quarter of 2010 the developing coun- The OECD’s standpoint tries held roughly two thirds of the world’s foreign currency reserves compared to one third the previous by Angel Gurría, decade.
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