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Fair Observer Monthly

January 2019

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Atul Singh (Founder, CEO & Editor-in-Chief) Abul-Hasanat Siddique (Co-Founder, COO & Managing Editor) Anna Pivovarchuk (Co-Founder & Deputy Managing Editor)

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International Standard Serial Number (ISSN): 2372-9112

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CONTENTS

About Fair Observer 5 Share Your Perspective 6

The Rohingya Crisis: What to Watch for in 2019 7 Daniel Sullivan

Tracking German Neo-Nazism Through Music 10 Bethan Johnson

There’s a Rock Heading for Earth 14 Arek Sinanian

Why the US Is Still Losing Turkey 17 Nathaniel Handy

Pompeo Attempts US Reset in the Middle East 19 Gary Grappo

Brexit Is Far from Over 22 Tahir Abbas

Is Narendra Modi’s Sanatan Socialism Failing? 24 Atul Singh & Manu Sharma

Peace in the Central African Republic Requires Patience 27 Alexandra Lamarche

Is There a Medical Reason for Trump’s Behavior? 30 Jason Tarbox

Davos Is Losing Its Shine 31 Ravi Tripathi

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ABOUT FAIR OBSERVER

Fair Observer is a US-based nonprofit media organization that aims to inform and educate global citizens of today and tomorrow. We publish a crowdsourced multimedia journal that provides a 360° view to help you make sense of the world. We also conduct educational and training programs for students, young professionals and business executives on subjects like journalism, geopolitics, the global economy, diversity and more.

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SHARE YOUR PERSPECTIVE

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The Rohingya Crisis: What to And there is little sign of accountability or a path to citizenship as demanded by Watch for in 2019 Rohingya who have been forced to flee. Daniel Sullivan In fact, more than 15,000 Rohingya January 2, 2019 have continued to flee conditions in Myanmar for Bangladesh in 2018. Bangladesh and the UN must continue to work together to improve the More than 40 humanitarian conditions for nearly 1 million Rohingya organizations working on the ground in refugees. Bangladesh have warned that returning the Rohingya to their homes now would The year 2018 was a dire and desperate be dangerous and premature. The UN year for the Rohingya minority from Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has been western Myanmar. Two-thirds of the clear that current conditions in Myanmar population that had been living in are not conducive “to the voluntary, western Rakhine State before the end of safe, dignified, and sustainable return of 2017 remain displaced in crowded refugees.” camps in Bangladesh. The several hundred thousand who remain in Still, the governments of Myanmar and Myanmar face serious restrictions, and Bangladesh have pushed for returns to what the chair of an independent, move forward. A bilateral deal to start international fact-finding mission returns by November 15, 2018, fell apart describes as an “ongoing genocide.” only because Bangladesh was unable to find Rohingya willing to return What will the year 2019 have in store for voluntarily. Pressure for returns will the Rohingya? Here are key continue through 2019, but the reality is developments to keep an eye on and that, more than likely, most Rohingya some thoughts on what must be done to will not and should not return by the end improve the outlook. of 2019. Whether returns can take place in line with international standards — ROHINGYA RETURNING HOME? that is safe, voluntary and dignified — will depend mostly on what the Repatriation of Rohingya to Myanmar is government of Myanmar does or does both the most necessary solution to the not do. Rohingya crisis and the most controversial. It is not a question of REFORMS IN MYANMAR? whether Rohingya should be able to return to their homes; it is a question of The government of Myanmar has it when and under what conditions. To be within its power to create the conditions clear, those conditions do not currently conducive to safe returns of Rohingya to exist. Hundreds of homes have been Myanmar. It also has a blueprint for how destroyed. Rohingya in Myanmar to do so. The Advisory Commission on continue to face restrictions and abuse.

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Rakhine State, led by former UN the US House of Representatives voted Secretary General Kofi Annan, released 394 to 1 to declare the crimes as a final report in August 2017 that was genocide. endorsed by the government of Myanmar. The report included In August 2018, an international fact- recommendations for freedom of finding mission, authorized by the UN movement, recognition of basic rights Human Rights Council (UNHRC), and a path to citizenship for Rohingya in concluded that Myanmar’s top military Myanmar. generals, including Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated for By taking these steps, opening access genocide, crimes against humanity and to humanitarians and independent war crimes. The UNHRC then mandated media and human rights monitors, and the creation of an independent working with UNHCR, it may be possible mechanism to collect evidence of to begin thinking about returns in 2019. abuses for future prosecution. Now it is But the window for doing so is quickly vital that this mechanism receive the closing as the next election in Myanmar funding necessary to carry out its draws near in 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s mandate. National League for Democracy, already reluctant to reform and address the The International Criminal Court has Rohingya crisis, will be even more so as also begun an investigation into the the military’s party seeks to capitalize on crimes committed against the Rohingya. anti-Rohingya sentiment. As this And international human rights groups dynamic plays out, it will be even more continue to push for a mechanism for important that pressure for change carrying out prosecutions. What forms of comes from outside — the sooner the accountability are ultimately achieved better. will remain to be seen, but efforts will not go away in 2019. ACCOUNTABILITY FOR GENOCIDE? It is also possible that the US State The push for accountability for the Department will be pushed to finally crimes committed by Myanmar’s make a determination that crimes security forces against the Rohingya against humanity, if not genocide, have gained momentum in the last month of taken place. This would prompt further 2018. The US Holocaust Memorial targeted sanctions. The United States Museum and the law firm that carried has already placed sanctions on a out a US State Department survey of handful of Myanmar military and border the Rohingya independently concluded guard officials and the two army that there was strong evidence that battalions that led the attacks on crimes against humanity and genocide Rohingya civilians. But these sanctions were committed. The State Department need to extend to the highest levels, has not yet made a determination, but

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including Senior General Min Aung rather than the usual refugee response. Hlaing. Efforts are underway to assess the response and incorporate lessons MONSOON AND CYCLONES learned for the UN response. The outcome of the recent general election One of the greatest fears faced by in Bangladesh may create further space Rohingya in Bangladesh through much to address these issues. What is certain of 2018 was the risk of a direct cyclone is that the 2019 monsoon and cyclone hit on the Rohingya camps. The worst seasons will arrive and the extent to was avoided in 2018, but flooding and which space has opened and lessons high winds destroyed shelters, injured been learned will be tested. dozens and displaced thousands. With hundreds of thousands of Rohingya ANOTHER BOAT CRISIS? remaining in fragile shelters in crowded camps, that fear will be renewed with Finally, 2019 will likely see an increase the 2019 monsoon and cyclone in Rohingya fleeing conditions both in seasons. Beyond a direct hit, heavy Myanmar and Bangladesh by boat for rains will threaten land slides and other countries like Malaysia and flooding, not to mention the risks of Thailand. With increased maritime rapid spread of water-borne diseases. monitoring and a break up of trafficking networks, we are unlikely to see The humanitarian community and something on the scale of the May 2015 government of Bangladesh made great crisis, in which thousands of Rohingya efforts to move the most vulnerable and Bangladeshi refugees and migrants Rohingya to new areas in 2018. But, as were abandoned at sea. But the same highlighted by Refugees International, questions of whether countries in the coordination and preparedness were region will accept any abandoned boats limited by restrictions on the side of the or push them back to sea as they did in government of Bangladesh and 2015 will have to be tackled. Already inefficiencies on the side of UN several boats have taken the journey. agencies. The Bangladeshi government continues to restrict the types of Beyond boats, trafficking networks will materials available to build more durable prey on women in the Rohingya camps. shelters. It also continues to push plans The longer they remain in the camps in to move at least 100,000 Rohingya to Bangladesh, the more vulnerable they Bhashan Char, an island in the historic will be to such networks. This path of cyclones and prone to flooding underscores the regional aspect of the through much of the year. Rohingya crisis. How well Myanmar’s neighbors in Southeast Asia work Due to government restrictions, UN together to tackle trafficking and agencies have also struggled with a pressure Myanmar to improve complex, hybrid coordination structure, conditions for Rohingya will greatly

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influence how the Rohingya crisis plays Tracking German Neo- out in 2019. Nazism Through Music The Rohingya will continue to face dire Bethan Johnson conditions in 2019. But there are ways January 3, 2019 that their plight can begin to be addressed. Above all, a positive path German neo-Nazi bands attempt to forward will depend on the ability of appeal more broadly to an audience that international actors to pressure and is opposed to the government’s position encourage Myanmar to create the on asylum-seekers. conditions conducive to returns for the Rohingya. Plato once wrote, in an argument postulating the banning of music, that In the meantime, the government of “any musical innovation is full of danger Bangladesh and UN agencies must to the whole State.” While an extreme continue to work together to improve the position to adopt in its own right, the conditions for nearly 1 million Rohingya philosopher’s prediction about the refugees living in the country. The year interconnectivity of politics and music is 2019 will not likely be the year that the not without its merits, least of all when it Rohingya crisis is resolved, but with the comes to Germany and some of its most right steps there is hope that, a year radical citizens. Perhaps most infamous from now, we can say that the Rohingya of all is the case of 19th-century have a better outlook for 2020. composer Richard Wagner and his anti- Semitic views that inspired Adolf Hitler’s decision to venerate Wagner and his Daniel Sullivan is the senior advocate music during the Third Reich era. for human rights at Refugees International (RI). He joined RI in April While the literal tone of racially 2016 as senior advocate focusing on implicated music has significantly Myanmar, Central America, and other changed in postwar Germany — far areas affected by mass displacement. fewer trombones and far more distortion He spent the previous five years with of the vocal cords — its existence has United to End Genocide (formerly Save endured. In the last three decades, Darfur), first as a senior policy analyst National Socialist black metal and white- and then as director of policy and power bands have staged concerts that government relations, leading strategic aim to blend entertainment with planning, report writing, and indoctrination, specifically with radical- development of policy recommendations right ideologies on race, religion and on Myanmar, South Sudan, Sudan, national identity. In 2018, the neo-Nazi Syria, and prevention of genocide and concert scene in Germany experienced mass atrocities. a decline in attendees, but it is critical to contextualize this in terms of how the events are policed, who attends the

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concerts and how they aspire to alter musician Varg Víkernes. Over the Germany’s political landscape. coming decade, Absurd collaborated with bands such as Kristallnacht out of In his book, Black Sun: Aryan Cults, France, SS1488 from Austria, Esoteric Nazism, and the Politics of Thunderbolt of Poland and an American Identity, historian of fascism Nicholas group called Birkenau. Goodrick-Clarke demonstrates how the German neo-Nazi music scene was and After bands such as Endstufe and is a product of globalization and Absurd emerged on the German radical alternative forms of European music scene, dozens more groups integration. Engagement with Nazi professing pro-Nazi and other violent phraseology and symbology has been a ideologies gained notoriety. Writing just notable element of fringe music after the turn of the 21st century, movements in Europe since at least the Goodrick-Clarke claimed that Germany 1980s, with a considerably active scene had produced more than 50 prominent in Great Britain, Sweden and Norway. neo-Nazi bands, and that “Germany Although some bands like Endstufe pre- may be the largest and best-organized dated German reunification, the Nazi music market in Europe.” metaphorical and literal fall of the Berlin Wall ushered in the discernible rise of a In these early years, the neo-Nazi music neo-Nazi music scene in Germany in scene in Germany was responsive to the mid-1990s, with considerable myriad socio-political issues promotional assistance from established characteristic of the newly reunified Norwegian bands and commercial Germany, including high unemployment support from Norwegian fans. rates and a rise in immigration, particularly from asylum-seekers coming NEO-NAZI MUSIC MARKET from Iran, Romania, Turkey and the former Yugoslavia. Eventually, the One of the earliest examples of government placed restrictions on extremely explicit engagements with asylum applications, and unemployment neo-Nazism in German black metal rates declined, but for a period in the occurred in the mid-1990s, when the early 1990s Germany saw a spike in far- band Absurd released “Thuringian right related violence. Pagan Madness” — a demo with a cover of the gravestone of a boy whom According to Goodrick-Clarke, within members of the band were imprisoned this context, neo-Nazi bands wrote lyrics for killing; upon their release, one that referenced both violent attacks member of the band openly called their against asylum-seekers and Jewish victim a “race defiler.” A band member people. (There is an intentional decision subsequently joined forces with Heathen not to include any specific lyrics here so Front, a blood-and-soil style nationalist as not to amplify their message.) movement controlled by Norwegian Lyricists wrote about the tensions in

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Germany at the time and promoted related to the German government’s nostalgic images of a powerful Germany alteration to asylum policies that year. that were dated to periods prior to multiculturalism. As a result, Goodrick- Despite indications that the number of Clarke estimates that Germany in the attendees would increase in 2018, a early 2000s had “about two thousand series of notable outdoor concerts with committed Nazi skinheads and as many neo-Nazi associations experienced as double that number of supporters.” significantly lower turnout. The October 2018 Rock Against Foreign Inundation FRINGES OF THE MUSIC INDUSTRY event had approximately 800 attendees, and the eighth annual Eichsfeld Day — Over the last decade, although they a Neo-Nazi event billed as family fun — have remained on the fringes of the drew only a quarter of its usual 800- music industry and society more person turnout. The decline in popularity broadly, neo-Nazis have again invoked can in part be attributed to how these similar anti-immigrant, anti-Semitic, events and crowds are being policed. nostalgic pan-Germanic ideas in their Rock Against Foreign Inundation was lyrics to relative success. Whereas originally scheduled to be held in an before the total number of enthusiasts of alternate location; local authorities twice this music and its related ideology was successfully petitioned the court for the estimated in the low thousands, recently forcible relocation of the event, in the concert venues for neo-Nazi music second instance only hours before the festivals have seen attendances of festival was set to begin. several thousands. For example, some 3,500 people attended Rock for Identity This may be one aspect of an — Music and Speeches Against the increasingly vigilant stance by German Abolition of Germany in May 2016, and authorities on tampering down on the the 2017 iteration of annual musical proliferation of far-right beliefs, most festival, Rock Gegen Überfremdung, or particularly following the violence in Rock Against Foreign Inundation, drew Chemnitz. Unofficially, moreover, a crowd of more than 6,000. counter-protest groups are also growing in size and attempting to disrupt such gatherings. While these two were arguably the largest neo-Nazi festivals in Germany, As was the case in the late 1990s and there is a parallel rise in the overall early 2000s, the music produced by number of music events that included neo-Nazi bands today very explicitly neo-Nazi or far-right bands. According discusses issues of immigration and to German authorities, the number German identity. It is important to featuring far-right ideology has grown in recognize that even though their the last five years, with a steady concerts may be smaller this year than increase since 2015, which may be in the past, neo-Nazi bands have not

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changed their messaging. While they Germans and to bring its ideology into have by no means abandoned view of society at large. expressions of anti-Semitism, they bill their concerts with references to But this music is not just rhetorically immigration, and signage at some dangerous. There are some links events notes the ethnic, religious, or between fandom of neo-Nazi music and racial changes in Germany. These political violence. For example, Weisse groups and events, it can be argued, are Wölfe (White Wolves) is a neo-Nazi attempting to appeal more broadly to an band whose lyrics have been found to audience that is opposed to the German reference extreme violence against government’s position on asylum- ethnic and religious minorities. German seekers. authorities have identified the White Wolves Terrorcrew as linked to the This aligns with findings published by band, and in 2016 some of its members the German authorities in July 2018 were accused of actions against migrant about the politics of extremism in the communities and those holding liberal country. The report, which comprised political views in Germany, as well as data from 2017, identified 6,000 the German state itself. individuals as neo-Nazis (a slight rise from 5,800 in 2016), claiming Germany Finally, while certain neo-Nazi festivals was home to some 24,000 people were not as well attended this year, this adhering to overall extreme right-wing likely does not indicate the early stages ideologies. Moreover, a study by the of a trend away from radical-right Competence Centre for Research into messages or music concerts as a Right-Wing Extremism and Democracy means of dissemination. According to out of the University of Leipzig found research produced by MOBIT, a group that approximately one-third of Germans devoted to tracking the radical right, in held some xenophobic views. recent years substantial property — specifically in the region of Thuringia, METHODS OF RADICALIZATION which is already a popular location for neo-Nazi concerts — has been It is a well-known hypothesis that music purchased by members of the German and concerts are tried and true methods neo-Nazi movement with the intention of of radicalization, particularly for young holding future musical events. people, and this is accurate in the neo- Nazi context. Their lyrics and events Even though it is only a fringe element promise camaraderie and blame social of the music industry, as journalist Erika and personal ills on outsiders. The Solomon has noted, the considerable upward trend in the number of events financial profit from sales of concert (now also spread through many parts of tickets, CDs and promotional items can Germany) signifies an attempt to make be used to help fund future neo-Nazi neo-Nazism more accessible to propaganda. Additionally and

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importantly, neo-Nazi concerts in University of Cambridge in modern particular provide the opportunity for British history, with a dissertation devotees to meet each other, and neo- exploring the codification of cultural Nazi music in general continues to nationalism in 19th-century Wales, as radicalize listeners and to claim space in well as bachelor's degrees in history, the German social and political Jewish studies and English from Vassar landscape. College.

In some ways, Plato’s warning about music is correct: The current neo-Nazi There’s a Rock Heading for music scene inherently challenges the German state both on a rhetorical level Earth for its policies and on a material level Arek Sinanian through its incitement to violence. More January 14, 2019 subtly, though, the lyrics written by neo- Nazi musicians and the crowds they Now that we’ve got your attention, Arek draw will continue to challenge the Sinanian examines the global stalemate German people as a whole. over climate change with this analogy about a meteor heading for Earth. The endurance, and perhaps the increased visibility, if not popularity, of There is so much in the world to be neo-Nazi music in Germany forces its optimistic about. But when it comes to citizens to ponder the implications of the the current global position on climate persistence of white supremacy and change, I often vacillate between radical-right ideologies, however fringe, optimism and despair. My previous in German cultural life. With its articles on Fair Observer demonstrate pageantry and its intentional militant this. presence, moreover, Germans will be forced to consider what challenges Now imagine this: A group of highly- might lie ahead for their attempt to respected astronomers who have been construct a 21st-century multicultural studying the skies for decades with the society when the specter of neo-Nazism latest available technology have is never far away. observed a meteor (aka a very large rock), half the size of our moon, hurtling in our direction. A peer-reviewed Bethan Johnson is a Cambridge Trust- scientific paper is submitted to the funded PhD candidate at the University United Nations predicting that this very of Cambridge, where her doctoral large rock is expected to collide with research examines the intellectual Earth in 12 months, with catastrophic underpinnings of violent sub-state effect. The paper predicts that this event nationalisms in the Cold War West. She will wipe out humanity and all the rest of holds a master's degree from the living things on the planet. Action must be taken immediately, otherwise we are

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doomed. We can either take drastic While all the necessary questioning and action or we can just enjoy ourselves as reassessment goes on, that enormous much as we can for the next 12 months, rock is coming in our direction at 50,000 and then it’s all over. miles an hour. So, what would probably happen is the gathering of the greatest How would the world deal with such a minds and technologists, locking them in predicament? a large room, give them a limited time and let them out only when they have a No doubt, there would be the usual solution to the problem, at any cost. denialist responses. How do we know that these astronomers have got it right? Now, I’m not suggesting that such a If it’s such a large rock coming our way, scenario (if it were to happen) is the how come we can’t see it in the sky? same as the current stalemate of What if it’s not as big as they say, and it climate change. Not least is that the won’t be such a huge catastrophe? “large rock coming our way” scenario is What if the calculations are mistaken a singular effect, while climate change is and it will take hundreds of years more like millions of smaller rocks instead of 12 months? Could it hit some coming our way for the rest of time. And other planet on its way to us and, the rocks will get bigger as time goes therefore, get destroyed? And so on. by, unless of course we do something about it. All the calculations are checked over and over, by hundreds of astronomers, And here’s the other main difference. mathematicians and scientists and the While a likely solution for the “rock” is to results confirm that the rock is destroy it, by contrast, we’ll need many somewhere between 40% and 60% of solutions on many fronts, to mitigate the size of our moon, and it will collide climate change (or destroy the with Earth between 10 months and 18 numerous and smaller “rocks” of climate months? change). In other words, our response isn’t to “do something about it,” but we So the deniers now can latch on the need to do numerous things. uncertainty: Oh, so there’s disagreement amongst the experts, and And that’s why the challenges of climate we don’t know exactly how big it is, and change are often described as a don’t even know exactly when it’s going “diabolical problem.” As I’ve described in to reach us. A few scientists even claim my book, A Climate for Denial, climate that this is a completely fraudulent change is diabolical because, firstly, it is fabrication by large corporations and, in difficult to define. Some people are now particular, the arms industry. suggesting that it shouldn’t be called climate change because the climate has You get the picture. been and will continue to change. And continuing the rocks-coming-our-way

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analogy, the rocks of climate change are all do them, all of us contributing to the different sizes (some enormous, some desired outcome. the size of a pebble), all traveling at different speeds, and they will all hit the Because of that complexity, we get Earth in different locations, at different paralyzed. It’s all too much to bear and times. Some rocks will be so small that that contributes to denialism. We know a simple umbrella will be adequate for what to do — we must drastically reduce protection (is there a pun in there?). our greenhouse gas emissions and Some places on Earth will not even be reliance on fossil fuels — but there’s so hit or be affected by any rocks at all. much to do to achieve this. It’s so complex and debilitating that even an Climate change is diabolical also “agreement to agree to do something because its impacts are environmental, about it” becomes an exciting outcome physical, social, and economic, and the of a UN climate conference. solutions include technology, economic and social change, political will and As it turns out, actions are being taken global agreements amongst nations with on many fronts: renewable energy for enormously disparate economies, social power generation, electric and hydrogen structures and technological capabilities. cars for transport, energy efficiency in And the impacts (the rocks) will be manufacturing and agriculture. But completely different in different parts much of this is being driven by market and nations of the world. Ironically, forces, rather than urgent global tragically, some of those most impacted responses to a significant existential will be least capable of dealing with threat. It’s almost equivalent to them. responding to the threat of the “rock” half the size of our moon coming our CLIMATE PARALYSIS way because it’s likely to affect property prices in New York City. There is no doubt that the current stalemate in addressing climate change Market forces rarely get it right when it is mainly due to its diabolical nature. comes to addressing social and The appropriate way to deal with such environmental issues. It’s been problems is not to see them as a suggested by eminent economists that singular “rock” to destroy, but to tackle climate change demonstrates the failure them in small steps and in achievable of market forces because of their lack of chunks. consideration of long-term environmental costs. I’m often asked, “What’s the one thing we must do?” The answer is that there It may not be a stalemate. It may be are many things we must do, and we described as paralysis. But relative to must all do them all now. And we must the required speed for climate action, it’s

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at best advancing at a snail’s pace while In the latest antagonism, Erdogan’s the rocks keep coming. close adviser, Yasin Aktay, has spoken of the US as a “highly unreliable partner” due to its efforts to safeguard the Syrian Arek Sinanian is the author of “A Kurdish forces who have partnered with Climate for Denial” and an international the US in defeating the Islamic State expert on climate change, greenhouse (IS) in Syria. gas abatement and carbon accounting, and he has extensive experience in The criticism is a further illustration of resource efficiency, waste minimization the echo chambers in which diplomacy and sustainable development. He is a is being conducted at the moment. Far member of the United Nations from seeking to reduce friction (the Framework Convention on Climate usual role of diplomacy), such Change (UNFCCC) expert panels of the statements are part of the new prickly clean development mechanism (CDM) nationalism that is everywhere in the Methodology Panel and the ascendant. Accreditation Panel, providing advice on new methodologies and projects for The most glaring dimension of Aktay’s CDMs submitted for registration under statement is its subjectivity. Trump’s the Kyoto Protocol. announcement in December 2018 of the US troop withdrawal from Syria really did put America’s Syrian Kurdish allies Why the US Is Still Losing in potential harm’s way, at the hands of the Turkish army. The recent move to Turkey safeguard that ally could be viewed, in Nathaniel Handy fact, as reliability. January 15, 2019 But of course, Atkay is speaking from Reliably narrow definitions of national within the echo chamber of Turkish self-interest continue to drive Turkey politics. Within that chamber, the US and the US further apart. has deserted its NATO ally in favor of a Syrian Kurdish militia with strong ties to There’s one thing Turkey and the US the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) — a can definitely agree on these days: movement within Turkey designated a Unreliability is now the bedrock of their terrorist organization. relationship. His assessment discounts the fact that It’s perhaps not surprising when the two the threat from IS was very real. The US powers are led by notably unpredictable needed local allies on the ground in men — US President Donald Trump and order to counter it. Indeed, it was a long Turkish President Recep Tayyip time before the Turkish government Erdogan. decided to give the fight against the

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Islamic State the same priority that it President Erdogan has veered sharply gave the fight against Kurdish groups. in the same direction ever since the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011. With the Yet the Turkish displeasure with its election of Donald Trump to the US NATO ally is not all paranoia and presidency in November 2016, the blinkered Turkish nationalism. President world’s key superpower has followed Trump has been cavalier in his suit. In the current dispute, the only real diplomacy within the international body. losers are likely to be the Kurds. He has also been transparently shortsighted in his engagement with the The Turkish government position has Middle East. ossified. It cannot easily roll back on its war with the Syrian Kurdish militia now. In line with his “America First” policies, The US position is more fluid. As Trump was quick to single out IS as a President Trump as demonstrated, grave threat to be addressed, largely Washington is quite capable of dropping because it had the capacity to impact the Syrian Kurdish militia. America itself and American lives. Trump and his predecessor, Barack The reason the US government has so Obama, have been far less eager to far stepped back from leaving the Syrian address Syria’s civil war. Kurds at the full mercy of other powers in Syria is not altruism. The Syrian From the Turkish viewpoint, this looks a Kurds merely offered the right guns for lot like abandonment. The war on its hire at the right time. But to drop them southern frontier has been highly would hand valuable power to US porous. It has deeply impacted Turkey adversaries. in terms of terrorist atrocities, refugee flows, political destabilization, economic In the cases of Russia and Iran, that impact and the very real threat of would stick in the craw of the US escalation from the Assad regime’s administration. The irony is, as things allies, Russia and Iran. None of this stand, the other “adversary” who would seems to have moved the US greatly. clearly benefit is a country — Turkey — that is supposed to be an erstwhile EVERY MAN FOR HIMSELF NATO ally and a bulwark in the Middle East. The result is a zero-sum environment in which all the key actors have gradually amassed leaders who see the best Nathaniel Handy is a writer and strategy as entrenchment and national academic with over 10 years of defense. This may have been led by experience in international print and Russian President Vladimir Putin — the broadcast media. He is the author of the past master of such tactics — but it has chapter “Turkey’s Evolving Relations been a domino effect. with the Kurdish Regional Government

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(KRG) of Iraq since the Arab Spring” in including former Secretary of Defense Turkey’s Relations with the Middle East: James Mattis and others, were also Political Encounters after the Arab caught off guard. Mattis, after Spring (Isiksal & Goksel, Springer, subsequently failing to persuade Trump 2018); the article “Turkey's Shifting to reconsider, resigned. The president’s Relations with its Middle East Neighbors special envoy to the coalition fighting the During the Davutoglu Era: History, Islamic State, Brett McGurk, also Power and Policy” (Bilgi Dergisi Journal, resigned. 2011); and he presented a paper at the British Society of Middle Eastern Left questioning whether this was Studies (BRISMES) annual conference Trump’s first step toward Middle East in 2014 on Turkish relations with the disengagement — he also later Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq. announced that Iran can do what it wants in Syria — Arab states were once again whipsawed by an unpredictable Pompeo Attempts US Reset administration. Could they no longer count on American security support, in the Middle East diplomatic power and considerable Gary Grappo economic clout to maintain regional January 16, 2019 order, especially in the face of the Iranian challenge, continuing extremist Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s activity from the likes of ISIS and al- recent visit to the Middle East summed Qaeda, and economic uncertainty? up America’s limited policy vision for the region. For many, the announcement might portend a period of great power Nearly a year after his predecessor competition in the region, increased embarked on a similar mission, on Iranian adventurism and consequent January 15 US Secretary of State Mike instability, all of which the US had Pompeo concluded a tour of the Middle resisted since it first became embroiled East that included stops in Jordan, Iraq, in the region after World War II. Egypt, the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman. A planned stop in Kuwait NO FEAR: POMPEO TO THE RESCUE was canceled. The ostensible reason for Pompeo’s hastily scheduled tour was to Enter Mike Pompeo. America’s friends explain his boss’ sudden and needed reassurances and a way unexpected announcement of the US forward on the region’s many troop withdrawal from Syria. challenges. At last, America would speak from the pulpit on its broad President Donald Trump’s December strategy for the region, heretofore decision to leave the fight in Syria missing since Donald Trump assumed shocked more than America’s Middle office two years ago. East allies. His most senior officials,

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On what was his biggest stage at the reasons for Mattis’ resignation was that American University of Cairo, Pompeo in the career marine general’s judgment, delivered what may now be called the the war against ISIS and other clearest statement yet of US policy in extremists had most definitely not yet the Middle East. In essence, however, it been won. boiled down to continuing resistance to extremism, blunting Iranian influence Moreover, America’s friends, such as and not being the policy of Trump’s Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Saudi predecessor, Barack Obama. In 2009, Arabia, not to mention the Syrian Kurds, President Obama had attempted to who have been fighting valiantly beside deliver his own version of an American the American forces for years now, must reset of US policy, specifically as it have been flummoxed to hear Pompeo’s related to Islam and Muslims, and statement on the US having been seemingly apologized for the US role in “absent too much” and his reference to the troubled region’s problems. “neglect (of) our friends.” How else to describe Trump’s Syria withdrawal In a not-so-veiled criticism of Obama’s without as much as an advance notice decision to withdraw US forces from Iraq or pre-announcement consultation with in 2011, Pompeo declared that the those most affected? Trump administration has learned much from its predecessor’s naiveté and NOT A MESSAGE FOR EVERYONE miscues: “We learned that when America retreats, chaos often follows. Arabs in the region would have found When we neglect our friends, little to address what is most on their resentment builds. And when we partner minds today. Pompeo neglected to state with enemies, they advance.” On its where the US stood against the face, that would appear a fair and alarming increasing harshness of accurate statement for any government rule, especially in Egypt administration. Against the backdrop of and Saudi Arabia. Nor did he attempt to Trump’s announcement proclaiming the address the dearth of respect for war against ISIS effectively won and the fundamental human rights, as Obama at consequent US troop withdrawal, it’s least attempted to do 10 years before. downright mystifyingly contradictory. The US secretary seemed to lay all the ills of the Middle East at the feet of the Indeed, ISIS has been set on its back Iranians, who certainly deserve a share foot, having lost more that 95% of the of the blame for ongoing instability in “caliphate” it once ruled between Syria Iraq, Bahrain, Yemen and Syria. and Iraq. But US intelligence experts still assert the presence of some 2,000- But Iran is only taking advantage of 3,000 ISIS fighters in the two countries, existing circumstances of depressed and another 25,000-30,000 elsewhere economies and lack of economic around the world. One of the ostensible opportunity, declining rule of law,

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absence of governmental accountability, business of erecting human rights government repression and insecurity. guardrails for autocrats, except when it Would Pompeo address those doesn’t like them, like in the case of underlying challenges for which Arab Iran. governments seem to have no answers? MORE CONTRADICTIONS

In effect, Pompeo seemed to say to Also mysteriously missing from governments — as opposed to the Pompeo’s sojourn was much of an effort people — that if you keep up the fight to patch up the Gulf Cooperation against the extremists and back the US Council, which Saudi Arabia and MBS in resisting Iran, then there is a basis for set asunder over a year and a half ago a relationship with this administration. in a misguided effort to get neighboring That only reinforces the hopelessness Qatar to bend to Saudi will. Forced to that plagues the psyches of many in the address it in Qatar without much effect, region, especially young people, and it doesn’t seem to have figured too offers encouragement for terrorism, prominently when the secretary met with Iranian troublemaking and instability. the engineer of the boycott, MBS.

In Saudi Arabia, Pompeo reasserted The GCC had been the most effective America’s position that “all those multinational organization in the Middle involved in the murder of [Jamal] East for dealing with the region’s many Khashoggi will be held accountable.” challenges and a key security partner for the US. Yet the Trump Yet, he had extended meetings with administration, never one to embrace Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, multilateralism, appears little motivated known as MBS, the official deemed by to bring the key Gulf partners together. the CIA, his State Department and the US Senate to have ordered the Aside from the Sturm und Drang against execution of the Saudi journalist last ISIS, Iran and the Obama policies, there October in Istanbul. He even seemed to was hardly a mention, if at all, of have gone out of his way to excuse the America’s vision for the Middle East, its crime, asserting that Saudi Arabia’s approach to ongoing civil wars and “leaders are going to act in their humanitarian crises in Syria and Yemen, country’s interests.” or its prescriptions for the underlying economic and human problems still To the average person on the street, afflicting the Arab world. that must have sounded like a blank check for governments to behave as It still has no answer for the infectious they wish to preserve themselves, ideologies of extremism, however regardless of consequences for their odious Pompeo wants Arabs to find citizens. America is ostensibly out of the them. Nor does the US have a plan for

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taming Iran’s adventurism other than Brexit Is Far from Over using sanctions, which few others seem Tahir Abbas to want, and the threat of regime January 16, 2019 change, which no one believes practical, much less possible. The underlying structural and cultural problems of the UK are not going to Secretary Pompeo may claim some change by leaving the European Union. success for his limited agenda for the trip. Middle East autocrats may also On January 15, the Tory government claim success, the Trump administration faced the biggest defeat in British having again blessed them. But for the political history, when Prime Minister people of the Middle East who ultimately Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement bear the region’s many difficulties, from the European Union was Pompeo offered nothing. categorically dismissed by more than 230 MPs.

Gary Grappo is a former US Many have suggested that May is ambassador and a distinguished fellow demonstrating a high level of at the Center for Middle East Studies at determination that should be admired. the Korbel School for International While I have some sympathy for this Studies, University of Denver. He sentiment, the real issue is that May has possesses nearly 40 years of diplomatic been the chief architect of her own and public policy experience in a variety demise. of public, private and nonprofit endeavors. As a career member of the The prime minister would not shift Senior Foreign Service of the US beyond her own entrenched red lines, Department of State, he served as largely to appease the hard Brexiteers Envoy and Head of Mission of the Office on the backbenches of her own party. of the Quartet Representative, the She did not want to work with opposition Honorable Mr. Tony Blair, in Jerusalem. parties and is only now partially opening Grappo held a number of senior the door. She created the hostile positions in the US State Department, environment as home secretary, which including Minister Counselor for Political led to the Windrush calamity, 20,000 Affairs at the US Embassy in Baghdad; police officers now missing from the US Ambassador to the Sultanate of streets, and the anti-immigration Oman; and Charge d’Affaires and sentiment that was a powerful force in Deputy Chief of Mission of the US driving people to vote for Brexit in 2016 Embassy in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi remains a potent litmus test of Arabia. Grappo is chairman of the Board intolerance today. of Directors at Fair Observer. She will be safe as prime minister this evening after a no-confidence vote

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tabled by the opposition leader, Jeremy by those very elites seeking to leave the Corbyn, but her own party is deeply EU in order to take advantage of the divided. It is May’s persistence to keep looser legislation they hoped it would to her false mantra of respecting the bring. “will of the people” — based on a hugely problematic referendum, which included These underlying structural and cultural issues of dark money as well as dodgy problems are not going to change by interests driving it all — that has made leaving the European Union. In fact, Britain the laughing stock of the world. they are likely to deepen due to the significant impact of leaving the most While some of these discussions on the successful trading bloc in the world. The nature of the relationship between the search for ever greater profits on the UK and the EU are important in part of the established elite and the fear themselves, they do not reveal the of “the other” stoked by sections of the extent of the structural and cultural media have led to rising intolerance, dilemmas facing the country. Brexit is a bigotry and issues of hate crime, anti- symptom of the problems, not the Muslim sentiment and distrust in the starting point. The austerity program political process. Brexit will not fix these that was initiated in light of the events of problem; it will exacerbate them. the 2008 global financial crisis hit Britain far more severely than other countries BREXIT WILL GO ON AND ON… within the EU. As has been reported by the UN special rapporteur, this austerity Unless article 50 is revoked, Britain is policy was ideological in nature and not leaving the EU without a deal on March based on sound economic thinking. 29. A new withdrawal agreement is unlikely to be pieced together in time The poor, marginalized and unemployed due to the fractious nature of this entire felt the brunt of these policies. The debate. groups left behind were a significant demographic in the Brexit vote, largely For me, it all starts with not accepting concentrated in the Midlands and in the 2016 referendum result because it North England. The other voting bloc was based on false promises at the very was the richer and far more affluent least and lies at the very worst. And this groups found in the south who felt their entire facade is all about the hard wealth status could be compromised by euroskeptics within the Conservative immigration. Party government who saw Brexit as an opportunity to get what they had wanted Immigration, therefore, became the for 40 years. tipping point for so many voters who, at the behest of political elites, were able Ultimately, Brexit has been pure folly. to instrumentalize the negative And the ill-informed electorate in Britain sentiment they all felt. This was created was forced into a corner by political

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elites who had no interest in questions Prima facie, the gods are in their of genuine issues of EU policy or heavens and all is hunky dory in India. domestic concerns about poverty, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has just equality or diversity in an age of presided over the Vibrant Gujarat Global rampant, unfettered and unchecked Summit. Heads of five world powers — free-market economics. Denmark, Czech Republic, Uzbekistan, Malta and Rwanda — flew over for a Having said all of this, I am miffed as to pilgrimage to the prime minister’s native what can work now. Is there any solution state. The media dutifully reports that that works for all? It’s possible that over 28,600 memorandums of article 50 will be extended to July and understanding were signed and would the softest of Brexits will be negotiated, lead to 2.1 million jobs. which will allow a general election in 2022 and the winning party, which may It is the purported success of the well be Labour, to seek to re-enter the Gujarat model that enabled Modi to ride EU in some meaningful way. For now, a in a victory chariot to the Delhi throne in second referendum is unlikely, as is the 2014. Like the Marathas, he knocked no deal option. In many ways, last night out a decaying dynasty and people was only the end of the beginning. To expected him to bring about “achche paraphrase the words of another din,” Hindi for good days. Has that (in)famous Tory prime minister, this will transpired? go on and on. It depends on whom you talk to. Pro- establishment economists proclaim that Tahir Abbas is an assistant professor at the Modi government has unleashed the the Institute of Security and Global “best years” of the Indian economy. Studies at Leiden University in The Economists opposed to the government Hague, and a visiting senior fellow in the declare that it has “taken a quantum Department of Government at the jump in the wrong direction.” London School of Economics and Political Science. The best guides to understand the Indian economy are government figures themselves and the accounts of ordinary Is Narendra Modi’s Sanatan people from around the country. They may not reveal bubonic plague and the Socialism Failing? death of the firstborn, but offer Atul Singh & Manu Sharma irrefutable evidence of achche din being January 21, 2019 as far away as the broad uplit sunlands promised by gallant Brexiteers. India’s economy faces big trouble as jobs dry up, consumption falls and FORMAL STATISTICS REVEAL industrial production declines. ANEMIC PRIVATE SECTOR

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On January 9, the authors analyzed the this statistic that set your authors to start economic pain India is currently worrying about the Indian economy experiencing. The new economics three months ago. Figures released in figures released recently vindicate the January confirmed their fears. Weak authors. The biggest warning sign has industrial credit growth, weak personal come from the rural sector. For years, credit growth, negative food wholesale rural retail inflation was higher than price index and plunging private urban retail inflation. Since July 2018, investment in infrastructure reveal that that has reversed. Rural distress is the economy is on its knees, if not its weakening consumption. back.

Last month, the minutes of the Reserve GRASSROOTS REPORT CARNAGE Bank of India (RBI) recorded that the IN INFORMAL SECTOR economy was “weighed down by moderation in private consumption and Earlier this year, the authors explained a large drag from net exports.” “Growth how the informal sector did not show up in tractors sales — an indicator of rural “in direct taxes or other official economic demand — turned negative” in data.” Demonetization and imposition of September as per the RBI. This fall in the goods and services tax (GST) have demand has led to a contraction in the wreaked havoc on this sector. industrial sector. Businesses have closed, jobs have dried up, demand has declined and now The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) manufacturing is suffering too. figures for November 2018 were published on January 14. They record a The takeover of the retail space by contraction of -0.4% for November. Non- online American giants has hurt too. durable goods such as food, clothing Now, people use Amazon or Walmart- and footwear have suffered the greatest owned Flipkart to buy everything from fall. Since the 2000s, savings and smartphones to refrigerators. This has investment have been falling. Last led to thousands of shops closing down year’s Economic Survey, a government and put many more thousands who analysis of the economy, acknowledged worked in such shops on the streets. this fact. This means there will be less Urban India can certainly buy things for money to invest in roads, factories and cheaper, but the ongoing destruction of industrial production in the years ahead. the little guys is leading to catastrophic job losses. The story of any economy is better revealed by secondary indicators The Centre for Monitoring Indian instead of primary ones. If the latter are Economy (CMIE) estimates that 10 dodgy, the former are diabolical. Auto million jobs were lost in 2018. sales fell during Diwali season, the peak Unemployment reached a 27-month season for big purchases in India. It is high of 7.38% in December 2018. This

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has rattled the government, and none indicated a clear “socialist bent of mind.” other than star minister Piyush Goyal Through formalization and rode to the ramparts to charge at CMIE. financialization it sought to deliver benefits directly to the people. This twin Despite all the sound and fury over process has been a double-edged employment and economic indicators, sword for the people. The cost-benefit the stories from villages, small towns analysis might not have worked in their and even Gandhinagar, the capital of favor as fewer jobs, collapsing demand Gujarat, tell a familiar tale. Jobs are and declining manufacturing scarce and pay is worse. A recent story demonstrate. Like Nehru’s Fabian reported how 7,000 candidates, the socialism, Modi’s Sanatan socialism majority of them college graduates, might be failing too. applied for a mere 13 waiter jobs on offer. Atul Singh is the Founder, CEO and IS SANATAN SOCIALISM FAILING? Editor-in-Chief of Fair Observer. He has taught political economy at the Narendra Modi promised good University of California, Berkeley and governance when he was elected. He been a visiting professor of humanities has certainly been energetic, his and social sciences at the Indian bureaucrats do not seem to have their Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar. hands in the tiller and his government He studied philosophy, politics and has a good record building roads, economics at the University of Oxford railway lines, toilets and more. Yet tax on the Radhakrishnan Scholarship and administration still remains the same, did an MBA with a triple major in bank processes are still primeval and finance, strategy and entrepreneurship ministries are bereft of talent. at the Wharton School. Singh worked as a corporate lawyer in London and led All power still resides in bureaucrats, special operations as an elite officer in especially officers of the Indian India’s volatile border areas where he Administrative Service. One day, they had many near-death experiences. are lords of culture, the next day they form policies on agriculture and the third Manu Sharma is a political analyst with day they run the finances of the land. an international footprint. A dynamic, This means that policies are young thought leader in the field of harebrained, implementation has little global political research, relation to grassroot realities and communications strategy, public policy outcomes are suboptimal. and political economy, Sharma has served in financial institutions, In February 2018, the authors coined international organizations and media the term “Sanatan socialism” because bodies across four continents. He brings the Modi government’s annual budget a formidable mix of technical skills,

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multicultural experience and the ability In the past, these mistakes were only to deliver across timelines. Sharma’s magnified by the focus on demobilizing areas of professional expertise include armed groups, which should have been political risk research, psephology accompanied by the inclusion of surveys and quantitative research influential leaders in national decision- papers on economic issues. making.

The country has paid a high price for Peace in the Central African these failures. Since the last civil war in 2013-14, over 80% of the land in the Republic Requires Patience Central African Republic has been Alexandra Lamarche controlled by a myriad of armed groups January 21, 2019 who pillage and slaughter with impunity. A quarter of the small country’s Central Africans have good reason to be population has been displaced by the skeptical about the peace process. violence — the highest number since the peak of the civil war. The UN This week will start the next, and estimates that 2.9 million of the possibly final, round of an African Union- country’s 4.6 million citizens need led peace dialogue on the Central humanitarian aid. African Republic (CAR) held in Khartoum. The talks will bring together In late 2017, the African Union launched the CAR government of the 14 armed the peace process, known as the groups that collectively control the vast African Initiative, to broker an majority of the country. agreement between the armed groups and the CAR government. These militias This offers an important opportunity for dragged their feet on setting a date for CAR to begin the long, hard road to the next round of negotiations. In the peace. A lot could go wrong, and stakes meantime, they became richer and more are high with millions of civilian lives powerful. They also committed more hanging in the balance. But failure is attacks — on civilians, on aid workers avoidable if the negotiating parties are and on the United Nations patient and stop repeating past Peacekeeping force. mistakes. During my time in the CAR in the fall of Central Africans have good reason to be last year, three densely populated skeptical about the peace process. The displacement camps were set ablaze, CAR has leaped from conflict to conflict and hundreds of their inhabitants injured since its independence in 1960 and and killed. Finally, last week, in a botched countless peace accords. Such welcomed breakthrough, Central African deals often ignored tough Republic’s president, Faustin Archange socioeconomic issues, political Touadera, announced that talks would marginalization and weak governance.

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resume in Sudan on January 24. But Secondly, for its part, the Central African those at the negotiating table must take government must be more proactive. It steps to ensure that the talks are should demand that armed groups meaningful. cease their attacks on civilians and guarantee humanitarian access. And ONE PEACE none of the parties should expect that negotiations will simply lead to a First, if real progress is to be made at ceremony in which amnesty is granted the table in Khartoum, there can only be to armed groups. Several critical issues one peace process. Last August, Sudan need to be addressed before amnesty is and Russia held competing peace even considered. negotiations. This process undermined the AU’s work to advance national Third, participants and mediators must reconciliation. Moreover, Sudan has set realistic expectations and avoid been an active participant in CAR’s rushing the process. Patience to build a history of violence and has provided credible and sustainable process is weapons to armed groups in the country crucial. The commitments generated over the years. should not be overly ambitious. This dialogue should be used as a platform The decision to hold the next round of to show good faith and culminate with African Initiative talks in Sudan may well an agreement on basic principles. be a move to appease Russia and Sudan in order for them to back the AU Technical working groups should be process. But there is still a very real established to design and implement danger that Sudan, as the host, may solutions. Those working on the African seek to meddle in the talks to further its Initiative signaled to me that many own agenda. issues have been sources of significant contention in past negotiations. The The same goes for Russia, which has failure to address them has set the provided defense advisers to the CAR’s stage for a return to conflict. To be forces, reportedly in return for mineral successful, the working groups must be concessions. The African Union’s staffed by outside experts with the commissioner for peace and security, knowledge and experience to help the Ambassador Smail Chergui, and parties and mediators. coordinator of the African Initiative’s Panel of Facilitators, Professor NECESSARY EXPERTISE Mohamed El Hacen Lebatt, must assert their authority to lead the discussion. This expertise will be vital to create a And they must be backed by other key peace-building agenda that includes regional and international stakeholders demobilization, disarmament and like Chad, Cameroon, the United States reintegration programs for armed and France. groups, building social cohesion

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between communities and determining a Additionally, some of the technical process of transitional justice that expertise can be provided by the UN permits populations to voice and Peacekeeping force. The mission’s document their grievances. While armed mandate was amended late last year to groups may request amnesty, the allow it to play a supporting role to the Central African population has made it African Initiative. Since its arrival in clear that justice is needed to heal from 2014, peacekeepers have worked to the vicious cycles of violence. address intercommunal tensions at the local level. Their efforts to decrease When the country eventually stabilizes, violence and demobilize armed groups displaced populations — refugees and have been less visible but successful. internally displaced alike — will want to While this new role is a welcome step, return home. This process should be peacekeepers must not let their work on supported by the appropriate technical local peace efforts fall by the wayside. assistance needed to ensure their dignified return and address housing, Peace and reconciliation in the Central land and property law issues for those African Republic will take patience, whose homes have been damaged or difficult bargaining, well-thought-out occupied. plans and diligent implementation. Rushing the process or repeating Lastly, transhumance access — the mistakes of the past will only lead to seasonal routes used by cattle herders more violence. throughout the country and into neighboring lands — will necessitate The people of the Central African careful negotiation. This will also require Republic have long waited and long the involvement of officials from suffered. If done right, the African Cameroon, Chad, Sudan and South Initiative can, with time, give them the Sudan. peace they have paid so dearly for.

The AU and Central African officials should move quickly to mobilize the Alexandra Lamarche is an advocate necessary expertise. The Central for sub-Saharan Africa at Refugees African minister of humanitarian action International, where her work focuses and national reconciliation, Virginie on conflict, displacement crises and Baïkoua, must seek and request the peacekeeping. A long-time observer of assistance of experts. Local civil society the Central African Republic, Lamarche groups are being excluded from this lived there in 2017 and traveled there in round of talks; they should be called on November and December 2018. to contribute their invaluable expertise to the thematic working groups and to the implementation of agreements reached.

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Is There a Medical Reason Pennsylvania — two schools that are not entirely useless. So is Trump a for Trump’s Behavior? victim of his genes? Jason Tarbox January 23, 2019 It is quite possible that the answer might be yes. This is indubitably a A neuropsychological condition might controversial statement, but let us explain the US president’s erratic examine the science behind it. The behavior. science of neuropsychology deals with brain behavior relationships and There have been numerous examines genetic predispositions in the explanations for the seemingly erratic cognitive domain. In neuropsychology, and unpredictable behavior of US dysmetria — a Greek word that literally President Donald Trump. He has made means “wrong length” — is a specific otherwise sober analysts turn apoplectic kind of ataxia. With this condition, a with rage, such as George Will of The person loses control of motor function, Washington Post, who has called Trump unable to carry out an intended a “venomous charlatan.” Others have movement properly and tends to labeled him a “puerile, sophomoric misjudge the target by overshooting it, sniveler,” and psychiatrists have undershooting it, or having an improper diagnosed Trump as having narcissistic, velocity or rate of the action. In 1991, sadistic and paranoid personality neurologist Jeremy Schmahmann came disorders. up with a radical idea. He proposed that dysmetria of thought was as much a Three factors influence human condition as dysmetria of action. In personality. The first one happens to be 2004, he coined the cerebellar cognitive genetic predispositions. The second is affective syndrome (CCAS). common environmental factors that influence all sibling behavior, such as What is the cerebellum and why is it the socioeconomic status of the parents. important in Trump’s case? The The third is unique environmental cerebellum means “little brain” or “lesser factors, such as an individual sibling brain” in Latin. It sits it the back and being molested or bullied. However, bottom of the skull, below the rest of the human personality research concludes brain, also called the cortex. The words that the influence of genes is stronger “lesser brain” are actually ironic, as than the other two factors combined. scientists estimate that of the 84 billion neurons in the entire brain, about 61 In the case of Trump, his impoverished billion are crammed into the cerebellum. vocabulary, inexplicably poor grammar It has been known for centuries, if not and an inability to produce a single millennia, that the cerebellum controls coherent sentence belie his education. motor movements and their smooth After all, he studied at Fordham sequencing. However, starting from the University and the University of

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1990s, there was evidence that the cerebellum “tweaks” thoughts just like it Although not proposed by controls motor movements, and now Schmahmann, CCAS could be three decades of cerebellum function congenitally caused. This means that it research have clearly substantiated this could be genetically based or it could be claim. a result of birth-related injuries. In other words, in people not suspected of Schmahmann was a pioneer in this field. cerebellar damage like Donald Trump, is He described CCAS as having four it possible his speech fluency problems, symptoms. First, the syndrome causes deficient abstract reasoning, problems with executive functions such inappropriate and impulsive behaviors, as poor planning, deficient abstract poor grammar, strange word choices reasoning, working memory problems, such as bigly, neologisms — coining of decline in verbal fluency and trouble new words, like children and with multitasking as well as set-shifting. schizophrenic patients, such as covfefe Second, this condition impairs — and his highly superficial visuospatial cognition, leading to exaggerations such as, big, great, disorganization and poor visuospatial fantastic, terrific, weak, bad, zero are all memory. Third, CCAS leads to caused by subtle cerebellar personality changes such as flattening compromise? or blunting of emotion as well as disinhibition and inappropriate behaviors. Fourth, it causes language Editor’s note: The author is a leading difficulties, including trouble with medical professional in his field who prosody (melody, tone and quality of would like to remain anonymous and speech), word-finding difficulty and has used a pseudonym. grammatical errors that cannot be attributed to a poor environmental upbringing. Davos Is Losing Its Shine

Ravi Tripathi Schmahmann also concluded that CCAS was associated with an overall January 28, 2019 lowering of intellectual functioning. It is important to note that Schmahmann Davos is essentially a symbol of crony developed the idea of this syndrome capitalism camouflaging as a pro- after studying patients with brain globalization voice. dysfunction as a result of strokes, tumors, brain atrophy or infections of the This year is already witnessing a cerebellum — not upon non-clinical profound global political instability. populations. Is it possible that Donald Britain’s confusion over the Brexit deal Trump is exhibiting CCAS without continues, and so do the weekend obvious cerebellar damage? protests by the gilets jaunes, or the yellow vests, in France. Donald Trump’s

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administration is reeling from the longest protests seen during World Trade government shutdown in America’s Organization or G-20 summits. history, while the Chinese economy is slowing down. In 2017, President Xi Jinping became the first Chinese head of the state to Amid these pressing issues, the media attend the meeting. In 2018, India’s attention last week shifted to a small Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave the Swiss resort of Davos, where the World keynote address. The 2019 gathering Economic Forum (WEF) hosted its was rather low profile. US President annual event. The name of the town has Donald Trump, French President become synonymous with the WEF Emmanuel Macron, Modi and British itself. The glitzy invite-only event is Prime Minister Theresa May decided to attended by over 3,000 decision- stay home, prioritizing their domestic makers, top CEOs, civil society concerns. representatives and more than 60 heads of state who all come together, traveling GLOOMY TIMES in thousands of private jets, to “build a better version of globalization.” Every Every year Davos picks up a new year Davos becomes the world’s largest glowing theme that hardly sounds any concentration of billionaires. different from the previous ones. This year’s hot take was “Globalization 4.0: Founded in 1971 as the European Shaping a Global Architecture in the Management Forum, WEF is a Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.” brainchild of an obscure Swiss business Davos employs a caste system of tiered professor, Klaus Schwab. The badges determining access to sessions importance of the meeting gained and segregating attendees into different prominence as globalization spread. categories. There were hundreds of The high-altitude setting in one of the vacuous panel discussion on the world’s most affluent countries that is a relevance of globalization and its leading safe haven for illicit funds only challenges. added to its charm among the jet-setter corporate overlords. But an inconvenient question remains: Will the powerful Silicon Valley elites Davos not only emerged as a neutral and philanthropists-capitalists political platform but also an opportunity assembled in Davos hear the angry for emerging economies to showcase cries recently raised by working poor in their “efforts” in deregulating labor the Champs-Elysées? markets and opening up local economies to global investments. The Davos is essentially a symbol of crony location of the forum ensures that it is capitalism camouflaging as a pro- mostly free from large-scale street globalization voice. In recent years, the summit has included social activists,

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environmental groups and even trade The recently published WEF Global Risk unionists within its folds. But its core Report places extreme weather events group is made of billionaires and and climate change at the top of its multinationals indulging in transnational warning list. But the concern for the tax avoidance that fuels global income environment and climate change among and wealth inequality. the different tribes of “Davos men” is limited to extending the role of Western The annual meeting’s hidden objective multinationals. No wonder Brazil’s new is to argue in favor of a corporate-run president, Jair Bolsonaro, who pledged world and speed up the retreat of the to roll back protections of rain forests public sector. For this purpose, and indigenous rights was invited to technology has emerged as their tool of deliver the keynote address. choice. A globalized world now means an interconnected digital world where e- The latest Oxfam report claims that last commerce is the new marketplace. year, 26 people owned the same Artificial intelligence and automation amount of wealth as the 3.8 billion offer ideal solutions for giant people who make up the poorest half of corporations who want to maximize humanity. It is in Davos that our political profits and spread their reach without representatives report to the top 1% investing in a new workforce. But holding the bulk of global capital. Davos technology is not creating enough jobs is the collusion of self-serving interests for the low and middle-skilled workforce. between corporations and politicians The plight of farmers and global debt undermining representative democracy. rising to $244 trillion has no relevancy in The forum’s approach to multilateralism the Davos paradigm. has no issue with Chinese digital totalitarianism or a Trump/Bolsonaro- The most usual answer coming out of style nationalism. Davos to every global issue involves words like “technology,” “cooperation” THE NEOLIBERAL GALA and “multilateralism.” But the corporate- dominated events won’t explain the The kind of resort-capitalism that we see barriers that stop dispersion of at Davos continues to function without technology and capital to poor any operational object. The private economies. The elite attendees are symposium debating globalization 4.0 complicit in these problems. There is a remains silent on the excesses of clear disdain for any strategy to clamp globalization in form of the sweatshops down on the tax haven. Meanwhile, the in Dhaka to modern slavery in Abu tech giant CEOs at Davos won’t tell how Dhabi. Similarly, the debates on they are spending more money than inequality stay silent on fair wages and ever on lobbying politicians. work poverty.

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This year’s forum takes place at a moment of growing concern about the risk of another recession. The concentration of wealth in a few hands is the true crisis of capitalism in our times. The slashing of taxes on the rich is happening everywhere, from France to United States. The seasonal corporate doves in Davos have no desire to combat the growing inequality and low wages.

Davos is a congregation of the “champions” in an unsustainable global economic system. Davos regulars are trying to shift the focus of attention from the global threat posed by the expansive monopolistic capitalism. The annual gathering is missing a key point: The attendees cannot close their eyes to the shrinking middle class and growing economic risks. It is only a matter of time before the working-class discontent echoes all the way to their snow peaks. Until then, much like the melting ice, Davos will continue to lose its shine.

Ravi Tripathi is PhD candidate in economics at Sorbonne Paris Cité University and an Indian lawyer. He previously worked on issues of the labor market, international development and energy.

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