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Advanced Info Service ADVANC Company update Mon, Jan 11, 2021 Advanced Info Service ADVANC Advanced Info Service Bloomberg ADVANC TB Public Company Limited Reuters ADVANC.BK 5G costs pressure 2021F earnings recovery Tactical: NEUTRAL (3-month) We maintain our tactical recommendation of NEUTRAL with a DCF-based Stock data TP of Bt220. ADVANC’s share price is unlikely to outperform the market as Last close (Jan 8) (Bt) 184.50 investors are now looking for earnings recovery stocks whereas we expect 12-m target price (Bt) 220.00 Mkt cap (Btbn) 548.62 ADVANC’s earnings to continue to be pressured by rising 5G-related costs Mkt cap (US$mn) 17,533 in 2021F. There will be earnings downside if ADVANC is “asked” by the NBTC to offer free support to the government’s “work from home” effort. Beta L Mkt cap (%) SET 3.21 Expect a soft 4Q20F. We estimate 4Q20F core profit at Bt6.5bn, down 2.5% QoQ Sector % SET 7.55 and 16.8% YoY. Net profit could reach Bt6.9bn as it will book a Bt350mn tax benefit Shares issued (mn) 2,974 from government incentives. We estimate mobile revenue at Bt29.2bn, flat QoQ, Par value (Bt) 1.00 12-m high / low (Bt) 223 / 156.5 but down 8.1% YoY. Weak purchasing power and intense competition continue to Avg. daily 6m (US$mn) 43.87 limit QoQ improvement while YoY growth will be hit by the absence of tourism- Foreign limit / actual (%) 48 / 35 related revenue. On the positive side, subscriber acquisition continues to improve. Free float (%) 36.2 Dividend policy (%) ≥ 70 Fixed broadband (FBB) revenue growth remains strong at 5.0% QoQ and 18.7% YoY to Bt1.9bn, thanks to rising subscribers. However, ARPU is being affected by pricing Price performance competition, though all operators have upped the starting price to Bt399/mth 350 (Bt) from Bt299. Importantly, this is still below the average FBB ARPU of Bt484 as of 300 3Q20. On the handset side, we expect losses of Bt50mn vs a Bt157mn gain in 4Q19 250 200 due to more aggressive handset subsidy for low-end models. SG&A is expected to 150 rise 2.1% QoQ but fall 13.4% YoY to Bt6.2bn; the rise QoQ is seasonal and the YoY 100 ADVANC — Stock Price 50 drop is a result of less activity this year. Based on our 4Q20F, its 2020F net profit ADVANC — Rel. to SET (rebased) 0 will be Bt27.2bn, down 13% YoY. Results will be released on Feb 8. Jul-19 Jul-20 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Reiterate our non-consensus forecast. Consensus expects 2.1% YoY growth in Source: SET, SCBS Investment Research net profit to Bt28.5bn in 2021F. We are contrarian, expecting net profit to drop 9% in 2021F due to: 1) lower tourism-related revenue YoY - and this segment brings in Share performance 3% of mobile revenue; 2) added amortization expense of ~Bt2bn (from 5G license); (%) 1M 3M 12M Absolute (2.4) 4.2 (15.4) 3) rising handset loss as ADVANC tries to boost 5G penetration now, when it has Relative to SET (5.8) (14.0) (13.0) competitive advantage over a 5G competitor in the consumer segment. Source: SET, SCBS Investment Research Possible upside to our forecast. We assume 5G penetration rate at 2.5% in 2021F, working out to ~1mn 5G subscribers. This is in line with management’s target. At this point we estimate ADVANC’s 5G subscribers at over 100k with an ARPU 10-15% higher than 4G. A higher adoption rate than expected would suggest upside to our mobile revenue, which we now expect to grow 4% in 2021F. Operational update after new COVID-19 outbreak. As ADVANC has been deeply involved in “work from anywhere” since the first COVID-19 outbreak in 1Q20, it will not have to make major operational changes. Hence, its operations are unaffected by the recent return of the pandemic. Forecasts and valuation Analyst Year to 31 Dec Unit 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Kittisorn Pruitipat, CFA, FRM Revenue (Btmn) 169,856 180,894 180,324 187,008 193,124 Fundamental Investment EBITDA (Btmn) 74,503 78,987 76,501 77,374 80,422 Analyst on Securities Core profit (Btmn) 29,564 30,881 28,799 26,167 27,833 Reported profit (Btmn) 29,682 31,190 28,538 26,167 27,833 (662) 949 1007 Core EPS (Bt) 9.94 10.39 9.69 8.80 9.36 [email protected] DPS (Bt) 7.08 7.34 6.72 6.16 6.55 P/E, core (x) 18.6 17.8 19.0 21.0 19.7 EPS growth, core (%) (1.0) 4.5 (6.7) (9.1) 6.4 P/BV, core (x) 9.5 7.9 7.1 6.5 5.9 ROE (%) 54.7 48.6 39.3 32.5 31.4 Dividend yield (%) 3.8 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.6 FCF yield (%) 3.9 8.5 (2.4) 4.7 6.4 EV/EBIT (x) 10.2 9.2 10.2 9.9 9.2 EBIT growth, core (%) 6.0 7.2 (5.2) 1.7 4.8 EV/CE (x) 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 ROCE (%) 13.7 15.0 12.7 11.3 11.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 7.9 8.6 8.4 7.9 EBITDA growth (%) 5.0 6.0 (3.1) 1.1 3.9 Source: SCBS Investment Research See the end of this report for disclaimer 1 Advanced Info Service PLC Value proposition ADVANC has the highest market share in Thailand’s mobile telecom space with a 45% subscriber market share. It also has the highest spectrum holdings among other operators. The company currently has 700MHz (15MHz bandwidth capacity), 900MHz (10MHz), 1800MHz (20MHz), 2100MHz (30MHz), 2600MHz (100MHz) and 26GHz (1200MHz). This ensures it can provide good service quality to customers. Business outlook We see its near-, mid- and long-term business as challenging. In the near- and mid-term, weak purchasing power will continue to curtail ARPU upside and the commercial launch of 5G, which will also bring rising costs, making near- and mid-term earnings outlook unexciting. In the long-term, it will be challenged by its 5G business, as we believe key growth driver will be industrial users, where the potential business case is now limited. Bullish views Bearish views 1. ADVANC is a good defensive play amid high uncertainty 1. Its earnings growth outlook is unexciting over earnings in other sectors. 2. ADVANC has the highest spectrum on hand. This helps it 2. Profitability will be under pressure after starting offer superior network quality compared to peers. commercial launch of its 5G service Key catalysts Factor Event Impact Comment Latest development NBTC asked telecom operators Negative So far, the NBTC has not offered any to support “Work from home” compensation to telecom operators to support “work from home”. This will be negative to net profit. Near-term earnings 1Q21F earnings momentum Positive QoQ, Negative Earnings will improve QoQ due to less outlook YoY marketing expense, while YoY will drop due to weak purchasing power and lack of tourism related revenue. Factors to be aware 5G penetration Positive/Negative We assume ~1mn 5G subscribers for in 2021 ADVANC in 2021F. More 5G subscribers than assume would bring upside to our forecast, as ARPU for 5G is 10-15% higher than 4G and vice versa Sensitivity analysis Factor Earnings impact TP impact 1ppt change in mobile service revenue 3% Bt5/sh. Mon, Jan 11, 2021 2 Advanced Info Service PLC Financial statement Profit and Loss Statement FY December 31 Unit 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Total revenue (Btmn) 155,213 152,150 157,722 169,856 180,894 180,324 187,008 193,124 Cost of goods sold (Btmn) (84,819) (82,992) (92,259) (103,456) (111,899) (112,452) (119,834) (122,628) Gross profit (Btmn) 70,394 69,158 65,463 66,400 68,994 67,872 67,173 70,496 SG&A (Btmn) (20,301) (29,926) (25,220) (26,472) (27,885) (27,948) (30,053) (31,556) Other income (Btmn) 739 568 750 861 846 960 991 708 Interest expense (Btmn) (1,960) (4,236) (5,302) (5,148) (4,777) (6,100) (5,250) (4,750) Pre-tax profit (Btmn) 48,873 35,564 35,691 35,641 37,179 34,783 32,861 34,899 Corporate tax (Btmn) (9,999) (5,175) (5,843) (5,923) (6,209) (5,913) (6,572) (6,980) Equity a/c profits (Btmn) (11) 24 5 (123) (86) (68) (92) (82) Minority interests (Btmn) (2) (23) (1) (32) (3) (3) (3) (3) Core profit (Btmn) 38,860 30,389 29,852 29,564 30,881 28,799 26,193 27,834 Extra-ordinary items (Btmn) 229 277 225 119 308 (81) 0 0 Net Profit (Btmn) 39,089 30,667 30,077 29,682 31,190 28,719 26,193 27,834 EBITDA (Btmn) 71,100 61,263 70,969 74,503 78,987 76,501 77,374 80,422 Core EPS (Bt) 13.09 10.22 10.04 9.94 10.39 9.69 8.81 9.36 Net EPS (Bt) 13.17 10.31 10.12 9.98 10.49 9.66 8.81 9.36 DPS (Bt) 12.99 10.08 7.05 7.08 7.34 6.76 6.17 6.55 Balance Sheet FY December 31 Unit 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Total current assets (Btmn) 38,007 31,899 34,841 34,905 47,142 31,368 34,969 43,681 Total fixed assets (Btmn) 136,082 233,650 240,103 241,961 228,584 259,219 260,930 257,074 Total assets (Btmn) 181,761 275,670 284,067 290,505 289,669 304,633 310,051 315,013 Total loans (Btmn) 65,432 98,958 109,677 109,133 94,044 110,000 105,000 95,000 Total current liabilities (Btmn) 57,533 69,328 69,718 72,764 105,255 81,149 84,099 89,683 Total long-term liabilities (Btmn) 75,735 163,634 163,922 160,072 115,020 146,306 141,769 132,237 Total liabilities (Btmn) 133,268 232,962 233,641 232,836 220,275 227,455 225,869 221,920 Paid-up capital (Btmn) 2,973 2,973 2,973 2,973 2,973 2,973 2,973 2,973 Total equity (Btmn) 48,493 42,708 50,427 57,669 69,394 77,179 84,183 93,093 BVPS (Bt) 16.27 14.32 16.93 19.35 23.30 25.91 28.27 31.26 Cash Flow Statement FY December 31 Unit 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Core Profit (Btmn) 38,860 30,389 29,852 29,564 30,881 28,799 26,193 27,834 Depreciation and amortization (Btmn) 20,495 21,667 30,151 33,879 37,229 35,922 39,592 40,813 Operating cash flow (Btmn) 61,763 75,579 62,914 61,292 94,764 57,644 70,581 75,535 Investing cash flow (Btmn) (57,746) (71,545) (51,258) (40,066) (48,365) (70,936) (44,958) (40,443) Financing cash flow (Btmn) (8,411) (2,672) (12,232) (22,809) (35,829) (5,200) (24,193) (28,927) Net cash flow (Btmn) (4,393) 1,361 (576) (1,584) 10,570 (18,491) 1,430 6,166
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