FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 2, 2012 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Democrats set to win Massachusetts, Connecticut Senate races Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls in Massachusetts and Connecticut find that Democrats are likely to pick up the Senate seat in the former and hold onto the open seat in the latter. Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown 52-46 in the Massachusetts contest, while Chris Murphy has a 52-43 advantage over Linda McMahon in Connecticut. Scott Brown has a 52/36 approval rating. Usually Senators with those kinds of approval numbers are safe for reelection. But Warren needed to do 2 things in this campaign: solidify the Democratic vote behind her and reduce Brown's advantage with independents. She's succeeded on both of those fronts. 84% of Democrats are planning to vote for her, only slightly less than the 88% of Republicans Brown's winning. And Warren's deficit with independents is only 21 points at 59-38. Our final poll of the 2010 Massachusetts Senate special election found Brown defeating Martha Coakley 64-32 with them so Warren's really made up a fair amount of ground on that front. In Connecticut our final poll finds Chris Murphy with his largest lead all year at 9 points. He's increased his advantage by 5 points since two weeks ago when he was ahead just 48- 44. Linda McMahon, already unpopular, has just become more disliked by voters in the state over the last couple weeks. Only 37% have a favorable opinion of her to 52% with an unfavorable one. “In August polling found the Democratic candidates trailing in both of these New England Senate races,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Elizabeth Warren and Chris Murphy have closed strongly and appear to be in a safe position for victory, which will go a long way toward helping their party keep its majority.” Barack Obama leads the Presidential race comfortably in both of these states, 57/42 in Massachusetts and 55/42 in Connecticut. But both of those leads are down considerably from his margin of victory in 2008- he's dropped 11 points from his 26 point win in Massachusetts and 10 points from his 23 point win in Connecticut. PPP surveyed 1,089 likely voters in Massachusetts and 1,220 in Connecticut on November 1st and 2nd. The margin of error for MA is +/-3.0% and for CT it’s +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: 3020 Highwoods Blvd. www.publicpolicypolling.comRaleigh, NC 27604 Massachusetts Survey Results Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If Kerry’s job performance? the election was today, who would you vote 50% for? Approve .......................................................... Disapprove...................................................... 33% Barack Obama................................................ 57% Not sure .......................................................... 17% Mitt Romney.................................................... 42% Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election for Undecided....................................................... 2% Senate today, would you vote for Democrat Q2 The candidates for Senate are Democrat John Kerry or his Republican opponent? Elizabeth Warren and Republican Scott Brown. 54% If the election was today, who would you vote John Kerry ...................................................... for? Republican opponent ...................................... 30% Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 52% Not sure .......................................................... 15% Scott Brown .................................................... 46% Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat Undecided....................................................... 2% conservative, or very conservative? Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President 13% Barack Obama’s job performance? Very liberal...................................................... Somewhat liberal ............................................ 23% Approve .......................................................... 51% Moderate......................................................... 35% Disapprove...................................................... 43% Somewhat conservative.................................. 23% Not sure .......................................................... 7% Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Very conservative ........................................... 6% of Mitt Romney? Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Favorable........................................................ 40% Woman ........................................................... 57% Unfavorable .................................................... 54% Man................................................................. 43% Not sure .......................................................... 7% Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion with another party, press 3. of Ellizabeth Warren? Democrat ........................................................ 39% Favorable........................................................ 50% Republican...................................................... 16% Unfavorable .................................................... 43% Independent/Other.......................................... 45% Not sure .......................................................... 7% Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2. Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Scott Brown’s job performance? White .............................................................. 82% Approve .......................................................... 52% Other............................................................... 18% Disapprove...................................................... 36% Not sure .......................................................... 12% November 1-2, 2012 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 1,089 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4. 18 to 29........................................................... 15% 30 to 45........................................................... 24% 46 to 65........................................................... 41% Older than 65 .................................................. 20% November 1-2, 2012 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 1,089 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs Ideology Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Obam a/Rom ney Warren/Brow n Barack Obama 57% 89% 88% 54% 25% 10% El iz ab e t h War r e n 52% 84% 84% 47% 22% 9% Mitt Romney 42% 11% 11% 43% 73% 88% Scott Brown 46% 16% 15% 49% 78% 90% Unde cide d 2% - 1% 3% 1% 2% Unde cide d 2% - 1% 4% 1% 1% Ideology Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Obama Approval Romney Favorability Approve 51% 79% 78% 48% 24% 10% Favorable 40% 11% 11% 40% 72% 83% Disapprove 43% 18% 16% 43% 71% 87% Unfavorable 54% 86% 84% 50% 23% 11% Not s ur e 7% 3% 6% 10% 6% 3% Not s ur e 7% 3% 5% 10% 5% 6% November 1-2, 2012 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 1,089 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs Ideology Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Warren Favorability Brown Approval Favorable 50% 84% 80% 44% 21% 9% Approve 52% 22% 32% 55% 77% 82% Unfavorable 43% 15% 15% 47% 71% 82% Disapprove 36% 69% 57% 29% 13% 9% Not s ur e 7% 0% 5% 9% 8% 8% Not s ur e 12% 8% 11% 16% 9% 8% Ideology Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Kerry Approval Kerry or GOP Opponent? Approve 50% 74% 76% 46% 28% 4% John Kerry 54% 84% 85% 51% 24% 9% Disapprove 33% 15% 11% 34% 51% 80% Republican 30% 12% 4% 30% 55% 78% Not s ur e 17% 11% 13% 20% 22% 16% opponent Not s ur e 15% 4% 11% 19% 21% 13% November 1-2, 2012 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 1,089 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs Ge nder Ge nder Bas e Wom an Man Bas e Wom an Man Obama/Romney Warren/Brown Barack Obama 57% 59% 53% Eliz ab e t h War r e n 52% 55% 48% Mitt Romney 42% 39% 45% Scott Brown 46% 44% 49% Unde cide d 2% 1% 2% Unde cide d 2% 1% 3% Ge nder Ge nder Bas e Wom an Man Bas e Wom an Man Obama Approval Romney Favorability Approve 51% 53% 47% Favorable 40% 38% 43% Dis appr ove 43% 39% 47% Unfavorable 54% 55% 51% Not s ur e 7% 7% 6% Not s ur e 7% 7% 6% November 1-2, 2012 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of