US Mortgage Risk Transfer 2020
Special report
US Mortgage Risk Transfer 2020
Sponsored by Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP has wide-ranging experience in theHunton representation Andrews Kurth of dealers, LLP has initialwide-ranging purchasers experience and issuers in thein novel representation synthetic and of dealers, initialasset-backed purchasers credit and risk issuers intransfer novel synthetictransactions. and asset-backed credit risk transfer transactions.
In connection with these representations, we provide clients with advice regarding evolving and improving their credit risk transfer strategies to best utilize the capital markets while satisfyingIn connection applicable with these regulatory representations, requirements we provideand their clients internal businesswith advice needs. regarding Hunton evolving Andrews and Kurth improving has been their active credit in risk the growingtransfer strategiescredit risk totransfer best utilize space the and capital has helped markets shape while the marketsatisfying with applicable representation regulatory on first requirements impression and deals. their internal business needs. Hunton Andrews Kurth has been active in the growing credit risk transfer space and has helped shape the market with representation on first impression deals.
©2020 Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP | HuntonAK.com 20083
©2020 Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP | HuntonAK.com 20083 ©2020 Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP | HuntonAK.com 20083 US MRT Research Report CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE: ORIGINS page 05
FANNIE MAE CORPORATE STATEMENT page 06
CHAPTER TWO: NEW PROGRAMMES page 08
CHAPTER THREE: CAS AND STACR IN PRACTICE page 10
AON CORPORATE STATEMENT page 13
CHAPTER FOUR: INSURANCE page 14
CHAPTER FIVE: THE ILN MARKET page 18
CHAPTER SIX: PRIVATE DEAL POSSIBILITIES page 21 Author Simon Boughey
HUNTON ANDREWS KURTH Editor Mark Pelham CORPORATE STATEMENT page 22 [email protected]
Design and Production CHAPTER SEVEN: Andy Peat REMICS, EPMI AND IMAGIN page 24 [email protected]
Managing Director CHAPTER EIGHT: John Owen Waller THE FUTURE OF CRT page 27 [email protected]
Subscriptions Account Manager Jon Mitchell +44 (0)20 7061 6397 [email protected]
Business Development Manager David Zaher +44 (0)20 7061 6334 [email protected]
Published February 2020
© SCI. All rights reserved. Reproduction in any form is prohibited without the written permission of the publisher. ISSN: 2043-7900 Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, the publishers can accept no liabilities for inaccuracies that may appear. No statement made in this magazine is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell securities. The views expressed in this publication by external contributors are not necessarily those of the publisher. SCI is published by Cold Fountains Media.
Analysis for the risk transfer community | structuredcreditinvestor.com/mrtreport2020/ 03 Fannie Mae is a trusted industry leader in mortgage financing. As one of America’s largest housing partners, Fannie Mae provides security and stabilityAs one of for America’s mortgage largest finance. housing We helppartners, power Fannie the U.S. Mae mortgage provides securitymarket and and fund morestability mortgages for mortgage than finance.any other company.We help power We providethe U.S. lenders mortgage with market the liquidity and fund they needmore tomortgages give homeowners, than any other homebuyers, company. and We renters provide across lenders the with country the liquidity access to they affordableneed to give financing. homeowners, Through homebuyers, our Single-Family and renters and across Multifamily the country business access segments, to weaffordable provided financing. over $650 billionThrough in liquidityour Single-Family to the U.S. and mortgage Multifamily market business in 2019. segments, we provided over $650 billion in liquidity to the U.S. mortgage market in 2019.
Learn more www.fanniemae.com ©Learn Copyright more 2020 Fannie www.fanniemae.com Mae © Copyright 2020 Fannie Mae US MRT Research Report
CHAPTER ONE: ORIGINS
S government-sponsored US mortgage-related securities issuance enterprises (GSEs) have been intrinsically linked to 3,000 the secondary mortgage and mortgage-backed securities Agency (FH MC, FNMA, GNMA) Non-agency (MBS) market from outset. They have been at 2,500 Uthe forefront of its development throughout the past eight decades and continue to lead 2,000 the way with new developments as well as providing the foundations and benchmark for all mortgage risk transfer (MRT) market 1,500 participants. S billions Chief among those participants are the two 1,000 principal federal housing finance agencies. The Federal National Mortgage Association – known as Fannie Mae – and the Federal Home Loan 500 Mortgage Corporation – Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae was established by the US 0 Congress in 1938 as part of President Franklin 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal. The organisa- Source: SIFMA tion’s purpose was to fund local banks through the creation of a liquid secondary mortgage market. In doing so, the agency not only saved the Depression-hit housing market and related construction industry, but also helped to usher in of a new principal player gave greater depth to the finance market participants they were badly hit a new generation of American home ownership, secondary mortgage market and enabled even by the global financial crisis. Resultant losses saw paving the way for banks to loan money to low- more funding to mortgage lenders in support of the two GSEs placed into conservatorship of the and middle-income buyers who otherwise might homeownership and rental housing. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) in not have been considered creditworthy. Around this time, securitisation was being September 2008. In 1968, Fannie Mae converted to a privately developed to assist in the GSEs’ aims and Since then, MBS markets have recovered an held corporation and two years later was allowed to broaden the scope of MRT. It was the Govern- even keel, activity has picked up in recent years invest in private mortgages in addition to the feder- ment National Mortgage Association (known as and existing holdings and new issuance have ally insured loans already within its remit. The same Ginnie Mae and formerly part of Fannie Mae pre- begun generating relative value once more. The year, 1970, saw the launch of Freddie Mac. privatisation) that guaranteed the first mortgage GSE case is no different in those respects but at Freddie’s statutory mission to provide liquidity, pass-through security of an approved lender in the same time they are also once again providing stability and affordability to the US housing mar- 1968. However, by 1971 Freddie Mac had issued revenue for the US tax payer as well as support- ket manifested itself in a similar model to Fannie’s its first securitisation and Fannie Mae joined it in ing the mortgage market. Today, Fannie Mae in that it too buys mortgages on the secondary 1981, still some way ahead of the private market. and Freddie Mac have each developed their own market, pools them, and sells them as MBS to Securitisation remains key to both GSEs’ MRT innovative issuance programmes of credit risk investors on the open market. The addition strategies, but like all other major structured transfer (CRT) products.
Analysis for the risk transfer community | structuredcreditinvestor.com/mrtreport2020/ 05 Data Dynamics® Data Dynamics is Fannie Mae’s free data analytics web tool. The platform allows investors and reinsurers to interact with Credit Risk Transfer and analyze the historical loan performance data, deal As the largest credit risk manager in the mortgage industry, Fannie Mae employs prudent issuance data, and ongoing disclosure data that we make standards and advanced technologies to acquire quality loans, prevent defaults, and reduce available to support our credit risk transfer programs, losses. We continuously evolve our CRT programs to broaden the types of loans covered and Connecticut Avenue Securities® (CAS) and Credit Insurance promote growth in the credit risk transfer market. Through our suite of credit risk transfer vehicles, Risk Transfer™ (CIRT™). Notable features include ability to: book of business. • to outstanding deals. The goals and benefits • and performance. Protect U.S. taxpayers Reduce capital • through the development of broad and liquid through consistent and programmatic issuance that was previously used to cover markets for credit risk. of various credit risk sharing products. exposure on transferred risk. various loan and property characteristics. • Access monthly loan-level data in the ESMA-template format to comply with the new EU Securitization Regulation. • Allow mortgage real estate investment trust Minimize impact on borrowers, Create liquidity (REIT) participants to monitor recognition of renters, and lenders to help build a stronger REIT income for tax purposes (“Good REIT Income”). option for investors.
Sign up for a free Data Dynamics account today: Investor resources fanniemae.com/DataDynamics Fannie Mae provides a variety of resources on our web pages to help promote better understanding of the credit performance of CAS Resources for EU Institutional Investors Fannie Mae mortgage loans and Fannie Mae provides institutional investors Resources cover: our approach to credit risk: located in the European Union with • Article 5 – Due Diligence Requirements. • Overview of approach resources to support their compliance • Article 6 – Risk Retention Requirements. and policies. with the EU Securities Regulation 2017/2402, • Article 7 – Transparency Requirements. • Transaction details. • Article 8 – Ban of Re-Securitizations. • Loan performance data This information describes how EU • Article 9 – Criteria for Credit-Granting. and analytics. Institutional Investors or those managing • Commentary and news. funds subject to EU regulations can map the • Investor and reinsurer information disclosed for Fannie Mae’s CAS presentations. deals issued since January 1, 2019, to certain • Due diligence details. investor due diligence requirements.
Contact us today to learn more about Fannie Mae’s CRT programs: Learn more about Fannie Mae’s CRT [email protected] 1-800-232-6643, Option 3 program and resources: fanniemae.c om/SFCRT © Copyright 2020 Fannie Mae Data Dynamics® Data Dynamics is Fannie Mae’s free data analytics web tool. The platform allows investors and reinsurers to interact with Credit Risk Transfer and analyze the historical loan performance data, deal As the largest credit risk manager in the mortgage industry, Fannie Mae employs prudent issuance data, and ongoing disclosure data that we make standards and advanced technologies to acquire quality loans, prevent defaults, and reduce available to support our credit risk transfer programs, losses. We continuously evolve our CRT programs to broaden the types of loans covered and Connecticut Avenue Securities® (CAS) and Credit Insurance promote growth in the credit risk transfer market. Through our suite of credit risk transfer vehicles, Risk Transfer™ (CIRT™). Notable features include ability to: book of business. • to outstanding deals. The goals and benefits • and performance. Protect U.S. taxpayers Reduce capital • through the development of broad and liquid through consistent and programmatic issuance that was previously used to cover markets for credit risk. of various credit risk sharing products. exposure on transferred risk. various loan and property characteristics. • Access monthly loan-level data in the ESMA-template format to comply with the new EU Securitization Regulation. • Allow mortgage real estate investment trust Minimize impact on borrowers, Create liquidity (REIT) participants to monitor recognition of renters, and lenders to help build a stronger REIT income for tax purposes (“Good REIT Income”). option for investors.
Sign up for a free Data Dynamics account today: Investor resources fanniemae.com/DataDynamics Fannie Mae provides a variety of resources on our web pages to help promote better understanding of the credit performance of CAS Resources for EU Institutional Investors Fannie Mae mortgage loans and Fannie Mae provides institutional investors Resources cover: our approach to credit risk: located in the European Union with • Article 5 – Due Diligence Requirements. • Overview of approach resources to support their compliance • Article 6 – Risk Retention Requirements. and policies. with the EU Securities Regulation 2017/2402, • Article 7 – Transparency Requirements. • Transaction details. • Article 8 – Ban of Re-Securitizations. • Loan performance data This information describes how EU • Article 9 – Criteria for Credit-Granting. and analytics. Institutional Investors or those managing • Commentary and news. funds subject to EU regulations can map the • Investor and reinsurer information disclosed for Fannie Mae’s CAS presentations. deals issued since January 1, 2019, to certain • Due diligence details. investor due diligence requirements.
Contact us today to learn more about Fannie Mae’s CRT programs: Learn more about Fannie Mae’s CRT [email protected] 1-800-232-6643, Option 3 program and resources: fanniemae.c om/SFCRT © Copyright 2020 Fannie Mae US MRT Research Report
CHAPTER TWO: NEW PROGRAMMES
he first of the new CRT programmes to be launched What is credit risk transfer? was Freddie Mac’s Structured Agency Credit Risk (STACR) programme in July 2013. Fannie Mae’s Connecticut Avenue Securi- Credit risk Credit investor ties (CAS) programme saw its first issue in transfer pro rams T Purchases credit risk October of the same year. Fannie Mae provides investments and assumes non-guaranteed credit risk interest rate risk and a investment opportunities portion of credit risk The principle underpinning these pro- that reference a group of loans grammes was winningly simple: the GSEs would Lender Fannie Mae create a brand new class of unguaranteed securi- Originates delivers Purchases loans and and services loans receives a guarant ties to mitigate their, and potentially the US tax fee from lenders payer’s, exposure to the credit risk that they retain as part of the issuance of traditional MBS. At the same time, the CRT programmes give investors Mort a e Backed Interest rate investor the opportunity to access exposure to the US Security MBS Purchases M S and Fannie Mae securitises loans assumes interest rate risk housing market in a transparent and program- and guarantees principal matic format, but one that still offers a higher and interest
yield than standard MBS. Proceeds from sale of MBS flow back to lender to fund new loans Even though the principles are identical and they share some structural similarities, both CRT Source: Fannie Mae programmes had to be developed independently. In fact, market sources close to the process say it was the FHFA that exercised its authority to ensure that the two programmes shared some features. “All ideas went through the FHFA and they ALL IDEAS WENT THROUGH THE made sure the programmes were closely aligned. An example of that is the loss definition. The two “ agencies couldn’t co-operate with each other FHFA AND THEY MADE SURE THE – that would have been illegal – but the FHFA insisted on the alignment,” says one. PROGRAMMES WERE CLOSELY The first problem both GSEs faced was how to introduce a new class of securities that would ALIGNED transfer credit risk, but not disrupt or challenge the existing traditional MBS market. Chief con- ” cern was the highly efficient To Be Announced To circumvent this, the decision was made pay-out is tied to the performance of a wider (TBA) market, which depends explicitly on by both GSEs to utilise synthetic structures. group of loans which is packaged into traditional GSE guarantee. Both CAS and STACR are similar in that their MBS deals. If the loans in the reference pool
08 Analysis for the risk transfer community | structuredcreditinvestor.com/mrtreport2020/ US MRT Research Report
How CAS works
1 Credit and prepa ment performance of the underl ing mortgage loans determines performance of CAS securities
CAS REMIC Notes Reference poo Loans are ac uired b Fannie Mae and sold into M S Class A Fannie Mae retains senior-most risk position Fannie Mae retains credit risk on loans Issue CAS securities to transfer the credit risk on loans in reference pool 2 CAS REMIC Trust issues Class M- H CAS securities and Class M- Fannie Mae receives cash proceeds Sold to investors retains min which are deposited into vertical slice the Collateral Account CAS REMIC Class M- H 4 Trust Class M- Fannie Mae 3 CAS REMIC Trust pa s Sold to investors retains min Funds in ankruptc interest to investors Funds vertical slice Laurel Davis, Fannie Mae Collateral Remote held in Collateral Account Account are Trust are released to repa Class - H released to principal to investors Class - Fannie Mae Fannie Mae Collateral less credit losses Sold to investors retains min default, the investors to the CAS and STACR to cover Account vertical slice notes experience a loss and in this way Fannie credit losses Class - and Freddie are compensated for their guaran- Retained b Fannie Mae teed payments in the MBS deals. If the underlying mortgage loans experience credit losses, CAS notes are written down by a corresponding amount, starting with Class B-2 and continuing in reverse sequential order Thus, mortgage credit risk transfer is achieved. Source: Fannie Mae Meanwhile, prepayment risk and interest rate risk is retained in the MBS market. “In simple terms, we started from the proposi- tion that we’re essentially an insurance company. We guaranty that MBS investors will receive 70% of total acquisitions and all are then emptied The GSEs typically hold the safest tranche and their full principal and interest payments. That into the reference pool. The GSEs generally retain the riskiest tranches, while investors can buy the leaves us holding the credit risk on the loans around the first 25bp of loss, and then the inves- middle tranches according to their capacity for backing the MBS. We want to transfer some of tor absorbs losses up to 4%. Beyond that limit, risk and appetite for yield. that risk to the market, so we take that underly- Fannie and Freddie also absorb the loss. Each So the agencies proceed from the proposition ing credit risk and sell it as separate securities,” GSE also maintains a minimum 5% vertical slice that it is very unlikely they will lose more than explains Laurel Davis, vp, CRT, at Fannie Mae. of the classes that are issued, aligning them with US$1bn from US$25bn of loans. For example, if Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae only transfer EU Risk Retention requirements. they sell US$1bn to investors to protect against risk on mortgages which have a LTV ratio of 60% As in other synthetic securitisations, CRT catastrophe, they collect 50bp in fees on the full or higher – that is to say the riskiest loans in the deals allocate the risk of default to certain US$25bn of loans and yet are paying a coupon of, portfolio. These loans generally represent around tranches, and the coupons paid vary accordingly. say, Libor plus 200bp on US$1bn of notes.
Freddie Mac STACR structure
Hypothetical allocation of principal collections Specified credit events
Reference pool Class A-H*
STACR issued notes Retained
Class M-1H* Freddie Mac pays coupon on Class M-1 notes, which could be reduced due to loan modifications, its obligator to repay principal Class M-2 Class M-2H* on the notes is reduced by credit events and in certain instance modifiications on the Class M-3 Class M-3H* reference pool based on an actual loss approach. Class B Class B-H* * Reference tranche only. Freddie Mac may sell a portion of their retained vertical slice, but will always maintain ownership of at least 6% of the M tranches and 50% of the E tranches. Source: Freddie Mac
Analysis for the risk transfer community | structuredcreditinvestor.com/mrtreport2020/ 09 US MRT Research Report
CHAPTER THREE: CAS AND STACR IN PRACTICE
he GSEs had to create a new market from scratch, one they hoped would become broad and WE’VE CREATED A WHOLE NEW liquid, that they could tap on a “ regular basis and would remain ASSET CLASS. WHEN WE WERE robust through a variety of credit cycles. To Tthis end, they have provided clear and acces- DOING OUR FIRST DEAL WE HOPED sible information about the quality and types of loans in every portfolio. All investors and disinterested observers say so. TO MAYBE SELL US$100M OF BONDS “Transparency was the key to building liquidity. We provided historical loan data from AND WE SOLD US$500M day one. Our historical data set now includes ” around 40 million loans with performance over 20 years. It’s all free on the website, along with this assurance they have provided more and more Equally, Fannie Mae reports total CAS and CIRT Fannie Mae’s free tool Data Dynamics, which data and offered more and more transparency. (see Chapter four) issuance to end of 2019 at US$54bn. helps investors analyse the data. This has been For example, Fannie Mae has given inves- That represents a portion of credit risk transferred really critical in launching the market and getting tors robust materials that share their end-to-end on over US$1.5trn in unpaid principal balance of people comfortable with the loans,” says Laurel credit risk management practices, including an mortgage loans at the time of CAS issuance. Davis, vp, CRT, at Fannie Mae. overview of tools that Fannie Mae uses to assess The GSEs had to convince investors that their risk of the loans they acquire, such as DU, its underwriting standards had improved out of all automated underwriting system, embedded recognition since the pre-crisis days. To provide in lender shops. Approximately 1200 lenders FUNDAMENTAL actively deliver loans to Fannie Mae through DU CHARACTERISTICS on an annual basis. Approximately 700 additional lenders are approved for DU access. OF STACR DEALS FUNDAMENTAL Fannie and Freddie are understandably proud • Large, diversified reference pools CHARACTERISTICS of their achievement in a market which, when • Multiple tranches to accommodate OF CAS DEALS they started, had every reason to be extremely various risk appetites wary of exposure to the US housing market. • STACR notes have been issued under “We’ve created a whole new asset class. When • Large, geographically diversified loan the following series: we were doing our first deal we hoped to maybe pools provide broad exposure to US • DNA (actual loss) and DN (fixed sell US$100m of bonds and we sold US$500m. housing market severity) – Collateral with OLTVs 61-80 Now we’ve sold more than US$50bn. The market • Fannie Mae serves as the credit risk • HQA (actual loss) and HQ (fixed has shown that there is an ongoing appetite for manager acting as an intermediary severity) – Collateral with OLTVs 81-97 US residential exposure,” says Mike Reynolds, between the lender and investor to set • Losses based on credit events in the standards, manage quality, mitigate vp, CRT, single family portfolio management at Freddie Mac. reference pool are allocated to the losses, and maximize value STACR notes in reverse order of seniority • Ongoing, programmatic issuance and reduce the balance of such notes • Consistent structures promote liquidity and • Principal is allocated monthly to the facilitate comparison of deals across time notes sequentially, similar to a senior/ • Broad Wall Street coverage, daily markets subordinate private label residential and publishing research and analytics mortgage backed securities structure • Pricing and trading volume available on • Freddie Mac holds the senior risk, which TRACE and Bloomberg is unfunded and not issued, a portion of • Active deal management includes the first-loss piece and a 5% interest in receiving ratings on previously unrated each tranche CAS bonds • Fixed severity transactions have a • Transparent investor resources 10-year final maturity including our investor analytical tool, • Actual loss transactions issued through Data Dynamics® June 2018 have a 12.5-year final • All on the run CAS deals issued in or maturity, after which transactions have after November 2018 qualify as REMICS transitioned to term Mike Reynolds, Freddie Mac
10 Analysis for the risk transfer community | structuredcreditinvestor.com/mrtreport2020/ US MRT Research Report
RECENT ISSUANCE AND ISSUANCE TRENDS The recently issued (14 January 2020) Connecticut avenue securities spreads US$1bn CAS note offers a text book example of a CRT capital markets deal. 500 The US$1.03bn offering, designated CAS 400 Series 2020-R01, references a pool of 105,000 single family loans with an unpaid 300 principal balance of US$29bn. The pool
Spreads 200 includes one group of loans where the LTV 100 is between 60.01% and 80%, most of which were acquired between June and August 0 2019. The loans are generally 30-year fixed Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19 Jun 19 Jul 19 Aug 19 Sep 19 Oct 19 Nov 19 Dec 19 rate mortgages. 1M1 (1m ) 2M1 (1m ) 1M2 (1m ) 2M2 (1m ) 1B1 2B1 The US$303m M-1 tranche, rated triple B CMBS BBB (vs swaps) CD 5 H (vs swaps) BBB corporates (vs swaps) minus by Fitch, pays one-month USD Libor Source: JP Morgan Markets Tool plus 80bp, the US$523.5m M-2 tranche, rated single B, pays one-month Libor plus 205bp CAS rating upgrades since programme inception and the unrated US$206.65m B tranche pays one-month Libor plus 325bp. CAS bonds received upgrades since programme inception The lead manager was Morgan Stanley uilt in structural de-levering positive HPA and strong collateral performance have led to continuous upgrades and Wells Fargo was co-lead and joint pgrade No change Downgrade book-runner. The co-managers were Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs and Nomura. M1 rating transition matri This was the 39th CAS deal Fannie Mae has AAA AA brought to market since the inception of the AA CAS programme, worth a total of US$45bn and AA- A through these deals the GSE has transferred A close to US$1.5trn of mortgage risk from over A- 2000 different lenders to private investors. Post-upgrade rating “As we enter the seventh year of the - CAS programme, we are pleased to see the AAA AA AA AA- A A A- - Pre-upgrade rating growth, liquidity and market supported by a M2 rating transition matri deep and diverse investor base,” Laurel Davis, AA- vp, CRT, at Fannie Mae, said at issuance. A Spreads have tightened considerably over A A- the years. For example, spreads on second loss loans – the M-2 tranche – were around - 600bp in early 2016. The triple B tranche was priced at around Libor plus 200bp in mid- -
2015 and is now sub-100bp. Post-upgrade rating There have also been numerous upgrades. Some 49 M-1 CAS bonds were upgraded in - A- A A A- - - - NR 2019 and 68 M-2 bonds were upgraded. In Pre-upgrade rating total, over 300 CAS bonds had been upgraded * Bonds that receive multiple upgrades are shown in the tables multiple times. since the start of the programme. Source: Fannie Mae
Both GSEs typically issue around US$8bn or credit space that provide a similar risk/reward US$9bn a year at their own pre-determined and proposition, given the same rating levels, and well-publicised intervals, though volumes vary with as much transparency of credit risk according to the scale of mortgage origination. and performance data,” concludes Mark The Federal Reserve lowered rates in 2019 so both Fontanilla, of capital markets consultancy expect 2020 to be a bumper year. Some US$50bn Mark Fontanilla & Co. of STACR and CAS debt is now outstanding. “The market has done increasingly well. Adop- Investors tion, liquidity have all improved year after year From the outset, CAS and STACR deals since the first STACR and CAS deals were issued attracted a variety of investors across both the in 2013, and there still isn’t much directly com- real and fast money sectors, but over the years parable investment alternatives in the mortgage more real money accounts have got involved. Mark Fontanilla, Mark Fontanilla & Co
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INVESTOR CASE STUDY THE POOL SIZES ARE ALSO VERY“ LARGE, ORIGINATED OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD SO THERE’S A LOT OF HOMOGENEITY ” Ulmanis notes that the market, which participants. Both GSEs realised that coaxing now consists of around 90 deals in total, investors into a new market which offered is extremely liquid. Secondary trading in unsecured mortgage exposure so relatively Karlis Ulmanis, DuPont Capital CAS bonds alone was in the region of soon after the great financial crisis wouldn’t US$35bn over the course of 2019, versus an necessarily be easy, but both moved with Karlis Ulmanis, a portfolio manager at DuPont outstanding float of US$30bn. Nine or ten considerable adroitness, communicating Capital, says he likes buying STACR and major dealers make active markets in CAS their intentions to the market at every step, CAS notes as it gives him the opportunity to and STACR notes, posting prices several offering great transparency about collateral, diversify into lower-rated, higher yielding debt. times a day. and always moving at a well-telegraphed and Moreover, he first started to invest in CRT “The pool sizes are also very large, disciplined pace. deals in 2015 as the existing sub-prime and between US$20bn and US$50bn, originated “Fannie and Freddie have provided lots Alt-A market started to dry up, so, as one door over a relatively short period so there’s a lot of education alongside their deals. They closed another door opened. of homogeneity. This means there is limited released deal structures that looked a lot like According to the terms of his investment tail risk. And the Freddie and Fannie websites subordinated bonds, which people knew. mandate, he can only buy investment grade offer an abundant amount of information on They have disclosed reams of data about the debt, so at issue he only buys the triple collateral and structure,” he adds. history and characteristics of the loans in the B-rated tranches. But, he notes, the spate of In fact, the behaviour of Fannie and Freddie bonds,” says Andrew Davidson, president upgrades has allowed his portfolio to include throughout the creation and cultivation of this and founder of Andrew Davidson & Co, a New what was initially lower-rated paper as well. new market wins plaudits from a variety of York-based consultancy.
Since then, the investor base Programme to date investor distribution has broadened and deepened 20 dramatically. Investor type 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2019 “We have a broad range of Asset manager* 64% 61% 81% 83% 82% 80% 92% investors, including asset managers, Hedge fund/private equity 19% 18% 4% 5% 7% 6% 7% hedge funds, REITs, insurance com- M Insurance Company 12% 10% 12% 11% 10% 14% 1% panies, pension funds, sovereign REIT 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% wealth funds and mutual funds. Depository Institution/Bank 5% 11% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% These range from household names to very small firms,” says Laurel Investor type 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2019 Asset manager* 35% 50% 37% 43% 41% 35% 53% Davis, vp, CRT, at Fannie Mae. Hedge fund/private equity 63% 42% 55% 48% 46% 54% 39% Fannie Mae says that over 200 M2 Insurance Company <1% 0% <1% 1% 3% <1% 0% investors have been represented REIT <1% 2% 7% 8% 10% 11% 7% across the universe of its CAS Depository Institution/Bank 1% 6% <1% 0% 0% 0% 0% issuance, and typically some 30-60 participate in each transaction. Not Investor type 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2019 Asset manager* - - - - 45% 45% 24% only does it sell bonds which refer- Hedge fund/private equity - - - - 50% 53% 67% ence loans with an LTV of between B Insurance Company - - - - 1% 0% 0% 60% and 80%, it also sells bonds REIT - - - - 4% 2% 9% which reference loans with an LTV Depository Institution/Bank - - - - 0% 0% 0% of 80% or more. For example, it sold Asset Manager includes pension funds mutual funds sovereign wealth funds foundations/endowments and state/local governments a US$1bn deal referencing loans of Through CAS -R between 80% and 97% LTV in June Source: Fannie Mae and dealers, primary issuance only 2019 and the unrated B-1 tranche paid Libor plus 525bp.
12 Analysis for the risk transfer community | structuredcreditinvestor.com/mrtreport2020/ Credit and Public Sector Reinsurance – What to look for in 2020 Aon’s Joe Monaghan urges reinsurers to grow credit reinsurance and public sector partnerships
What’s the latest news for reinsurance in the private market to help them create more stability US mortgage and wider credit space? in their long-term financing of risk. That marketplace continues to grow. It’s been a It just so happened that the first year they phenomenal success for Fannie Mae and Fred- bought protection, there was an event like die Mac but also for the re/insurance sector. We Harvey and they got a recovery. They recognize had the sixth-year anniversary of the inaugural that in most years they’re probably not going to mortgage reinsurance risk transfer pilot, which receive a recovery – that’s the nature of reinsur- incepted in November 2013, and as of year-end ance. But long-term, they value private capital 2019 we saw about $25bn of limit transferred. to reduce the volatility of any given year. They These deals are expected to generate about want to grow the partnership and reinsurers $5bn of income to reinsurers over their lifetime. want to grow the partnership. 2020 is expected to be the most active year The wildfires are another very significant set for reinsurance on US mortgage credit risk as de- of events where the insurance considerations are mand for reinsurance limit could exceed $10bn complex, ranging from the impact on home- with the potential for generating $2bn of lifetime owners and businesses to utilities that are affect- Joe Monaghan premium. The increased demand is driven by ed – especially if the fire source starts from trees the Government’s desire to move Fannie Mae or limbs contacting transmission or distribution of that partnership has changed over time, but and Freddie Mac out of conservatorship. lines. Obviously major utilities in California have reinsurers must never lose, as they become Aon is expanding now from single-family recently bought a lot of insurance that’s backed larger, the ability for individuals to meet with risk to multi-family risks and has done a series by reinsurance, but there’s more that can be clients and to treat them uniquely. That’s some- of transactions, expecting this class of business done to help all the constituents involved. thing we very much focus on. to continue to grow. We recently completed If you’re just larger and have more capacity, the markets’ first broadly syndicated unfunded How has recent M&A activity changed you’re not going to be as successful as a com- risk transfer transaction for a leading European the industry? petitor who can be creative and think individu- bank issuer. Risk protection was purchased on I’ve been in the reinsurance business for more ally about a client’s needs. a portfolio of large cap corporate loans. The than 20 years, and there’s been a lot of change We have some very large, sophisticated, transaction provides loss protection but more over that time. It’s much more property- financially sound reinsurance companies – it’s importantly optimizes regulatory capital so that dominated now than it was when I started, and a stronger industry now than it ever has been. the bank can increase its lending activity in this there are fewer but larger reinsurers. The level But it is still a syndicated marketplace, and business line. We believe reinsurers will prove of sophistication in terms of quantifying risk has you’ve got to be competitive. You must under- to be an efficient and reliable source of risk also developed greatly. stand the client’s issues and needs. capital for the banking sector, and that you will Reinsurance CEOs say they want to be more see similar transactions in the coming year. relevant. They mean that in a couple of different Need more information? In the public sector, we did a pilot for the ways. They want to be able to bring significant Aon has been involved in mortgage credit risk Export-Import Bank of the United States that capacity and they want to be more relevant in transfer since its inception. If you would like to was very successful, and we are looking to build. terms of the thoughtfulness and creativity they know more about this business line or any of Various international aid and development can bring to bear for the client. the transactions discussed, please contact Joe agencies are seeking innovative public-private If a client wants to do something that’s not Monaghan at [email protected] partnerships as well. There is a tremendous op- quite box-standard, reinsurers want to have as portunity for growth, but the re/insurance com- robust an analytical framework and as strong a munity needs to approach this sector focused on talent base as possible to think differently. Buyers its unique constraints and considerations. It must want to deal with a core set of reinsurers that can be a partnership that brings the best of both match them in terms of their global awareness sides to enhance the ability of governments to and their footprint, and that’s another compo- achieve their missions on behalf of their citizens. nent of what’s driving this consolidation. Having said that, in the US we have a lot of What do you see as the future for public- buyers that not only aren’t global, they may private partnerships, such as with the Federal not even be national – they could be regional Aon plc (NYSE:AON) is a leading professional Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)? players. What they want are large, financially services firm providing a broad range of risk, Aon hosted a government de-risking conference stable reinsurers that understand their risk and retirement and health solutions. Our 50,000 colleagues in 120 countries empower results for in Washington, and we had presentations from are committed to providing stability of capacity clients by using proprietary data and analyt- several different government agencies that are and price over time. ics to deliver insights that reduce volatility and utilizing reinsurance capacity. FEMA were quite What’s still relevant today, and relevant 20 improve performance. bullish about the role of reinsurance and the years ago, is a trading partnership. The nature
Analysis for the risk transfer community | structuredcreditinvestor.com/mrtreport2020/ 13 US MRT Research Report
CHAPTER FOUR: INSURANCE
he capital markets applica- explains Mike Reynolds, vp, CRT, single family tion of CRT is only part of the portfolio management at Freddie Mac. story, the GSE’s also utilise the By the end of 2019, Freddie had executed 49 reinsurance market. In tandem ACIS transactions covering over US$13bn in with CAS, Fannie developed policy coverage across 38 reinsurers. Since 2015, its Credit Insurance Risk Transfer (CIRT) it has averaged US$2.5bn to US$3bn in reinsur- Tprogramme; while Freddie set up its Agency ance contracts per year. Credit Insurance Structure (ACIS) along- Both GSEs introduced reinsurance at broadly side STACR. the same time, however, and both are designed Moreover, while CAS and STACR are similar, to work hand in hand with the capital markets there are a few important differences between operation. In the same way the bottom 4% of risk CIRT and ACIS. As Jeffrey Krohn, an md at Guy is chiefly reassigned to capital markets investors, Carpenter, explains, Freddie typically takes a the same sliver of risk is reassigned to reinsur- single pool of loans and splits that 75/25 between ance firms. the capital markets and the reinsurance market. There are two main insurance brokers in this Rob Schaefer, Fannie Mae Both participate in the same pool of risk, though market – Aon and Guy Carpenter – and they por- terms of coverage may vary a little. Fannie does tion the risk to a collection of traditional property reinsurers will step in to cover the next 375bp up it differently: it creates one pool of risk for CAS, and casualty insurance firms. Of these two, Aon to a maximum coverage of around US$392m. and another pool for CIRT. has been the lead broker placing the vast majority Coverage is based on actual losses for a term “The biggest difference between ACIS and of these deals. No other names have entered the of 12.5 years, and that coverage may be cancelled CIRT is that Freddie chose to follow the same market as it requires a heavy investment in terms at any time after the fifth anniversary of the effec- reference pool and rules as STACR, and the lay- of talent and analytic software. tive date through the payment of a cancellation ering of the ACIS pool is the same. This isn’t the A typical deal structure was provided by the fee. The loan pool for the 2019-4 deal consisted case with Fannie. CIRT is not aligned with CAS. Fannie Mae CIRT deal on US$10.5bn of 30-year of fixed-rate loans acquired from December 2018 They do a random sampling of the portfolio every single family loans, announced on 6 November to June 2019. With this transaction, Fannie Mae quarter and bifurcate it between CAS and CIRT,” 2019. The transaction, designated CIRT 2019-4, through CAS and CIRT transferred a portion of says a source in the insurance market. covered an unpaid balance on 21-year to 30-year credit risk on nearly US$2Trn of unpaid principal ACIS has multiple layers, so insurers can fixed rate loans, all of which had a LTV ratio balance at the time of the transactions. invest in layers with greater degrees of subordina- of greater than 80% and less than 97%. Fannie There were three principal criteria that tion. “If you insure M-1 or M-2 you can enjoy retains the first 40bp of loss, and if that US$42m governed the development of CIRT and sets it 100bp-150bp of subordination for M2 or 300bp retention layer is exhausted, some 15 insurers and apart from the mortgage insurance the GSEs – 350bp for M1, so you have some flexibility in the ACIS attachment,” explains Andreas Koutris, md, credit and guaranty at Aon. CIRT reference pool selection process “We designed STACR and ACIS to be very similar. While the reinsurance programme has its own contract, the underlying rules and mechan- Selection of Fully amortising, generally 25-year and 30-year ics are very similar and we did that intentionally,” acquisitions fixed-rate(1), 1-4 unit, first lien, conventional
™ (2) Based upon Current UPB Not Refi Plus / Not HARP recent covered in Random division acquisition credit period insurance (random risk transfer 60% < loan-to-value <– 80% division) transaction Proportional allocation for CAS 0 x 30 payment history since acquisition
Other exclusions may apply
(1) All loans will have terms greater than 240 months and less than or equal to 360 months. Other minimal exclusion criteria apply. (2) Fannie Mae acquires HARP loans under its Refi Plus™ initiative, which provides expanded refinance opportunities for eligible Fannie Mae borrowers. Source: Fannie Mae Jeffrey Krohn, Guy Carpenter
14 Analysis for the risk transfer community | structuredcreditinvestor.com/mrtreport2020/ US MRT Research Report
VIEW FROM THE INSURANCE BROKERS
Aon has been there from the reinsurance of mortgage risk has not always been the space from the outset of the programme. easiest proposition to sell to reinsurers. Since then it has been the primary “Reinsurers were sceptical and reluctant reinsurance broker for Freddie and Fannie, to assume risk that contributed to the financial helping build the mortgage reinsurance crisis. Some reinsurers even thought we market alongside the two GSEs. were creating the same esoteric financial “Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, with the instruments that were portrayed in the film The help of Aon, developed a very innovative Big Short. It was and remains challenging. And insurance solution. While now it has become once a new reinsurer starts writing mortgage a mainstream product for our industry, back in credit, underwriters may be bombarded from 2013 we had to overcome the preconceived board members or management that can slow notions of reinsurers regarding mortgage down the adoption process,” he says. default risk as well as the fact that the GSEs However, once reinsurers can look beyond were not historically large buyers of insurance the headline risk, they often find that the for credit protection, but were very familiar Benjamin Walker, Aon diversification of risk mortgage exposure offers with the capital markets,” says Andreas can suit their business model extremely well. Koutris, md, credit and guaranty at Aon. and head of analytics for Aon Reinsurance “Traditional P&C insurers really like the diversity The development of the programme took Solutions’ credit & guaranty practice group. mortgage insurance provides as it is not materially about two years before it was ready for the Not only did it work hard to recruit a wide correlated to P&C risk. Not only does it dampen market. Aon places risk with a panel of US, panel, it also needed to make sure the names earnings volatility and allow reinsurers to hold Bermudan and European names, such as were diversified not only in terms of business less capital, it makes the reinsurance model Everest, Partner Re, Renaissance and Arch. line but also geographic footprint. In total, more durable through the cycle,” adds Krohn. It has recruited some London-based names there are some 46 individual balance sheets Moreover, over time, the reinsurers have but is seeking to enlist more of the large, well- with which it works, but it seeking to grow learned how thorough and comprehensive known European names. that number to reduce individual exposure. the changes to the underwriting and valuation “At the beginning, very few insurers knew Walker also says that the insurers process at Fannie and Freddie have been. “The how to underwrite and price mortgage risk. themselves have been disciplined in their loan manufacturing process has materially When the GSEs indicated that they intended approach, keeping a close eye on how much changed and the result is clearly evident in loan to share risk at scale with the reinsurance exposure they have written and how much performance. In the pre-crisis years, there was market, Aon along with Freddie Mac and capital is exposed to mortgage risk. no independence in the appraisal process. If Fannie Mae worked hard and established Jeffrey Krohn, an md at Guy Carpenter you wanted a new loan, you could simply go a broad panel of reinsurers to meet the – the other big name in the reinsurance through appraisal after appraisal until you got demand,” says Benjamin Walker, senior md brokerage space – confesses that assumption the right number,” he recounts.
had had in the past, says Rob Schaefer, vp, credit enhancement and strategy, at Fannie Mae. “First, Reinsurance deal structure we learned many lessons from the performance Fannie Mae has co-beneficial interest in trust of the mortgage insurance that we had in place on our loans during the 2008 credit crisis.” Lender 1 Although the industry ultimately paid tens Premium ceded Reinsurer A of billions of dollars in MI benefits, billions of Premium paid dollars of claims were either not paid or paid Lender 2 Interest liabilit months late as a result of the insurer’s determina- agreement Fannie Reinsurer B tion of underwriting or servicing defects. At the Lender 3 Mae Aggregate same time, the claims process was seen as overly XOL uota share Loans insurance Protected cell reinsurance complicated, requiring dozens of origination owned or polic treat Lender 4 guaranteed Reinsurer C and servicing documents to be reviewed by the insurer. Trust Loss recoveries agreement “As a result, with CIRT we targeted a wider Lender group of diversified, financially strong and global insurance firms with tens of billions of capital, Loss recoveries Loans delivered to generally rated single-A or better,” Schaefer says. FNMA under Reinsurer Second, underwriting standards needed to mortgage selling and servicing “Cut through” endorsement to QS be raised and quality control needed material contract improvements. But Fannie also wanted to ensure Source: Fannie Mae that an insurer did not unreasonably deem a
Analysis for the risk transfer community | structuredcreditinvestor.com/mrtreport2020/ 15 US MRT Research Report
VIEW FROM A REINSURER
Arch is responsible for about 20% of all the underwriting done in the US mortgage reinsurance market, making it the biggest player. It was also one of the first in the market. It likes the mortgage market for a number of different reasons. Firstly, of course, it offers risk diversification. When it entered the market Arch had the capacity and felt the opportunities presented by this new risk were encouraging. “In 2012, the housing market was in a trough. Home values were below intrinsic values, underwriting Andreas Koutris, Aon standards and the regulatory environment had greatly improved, so we were bullish on loan to have an underwriting defect simply to the market, despite its history,” says Seamus Seamus Fearon, Arch Capital avoid paying a claim. So, now with CIRT, Fannie Fearon, evp, CRT and services, global Mae is the ultimate arbiter of loan quality, and if a mortgage group, at Arch Capital. Arch recently formed a partnership with loan has a material defect it is either repurchased The returns offered were also sharply Munich Re, the biggest reinsurer in the world by the lender or the lender indemnifies Fannie higher than in the traditional property and but hitherto one which has had no exposure Mae for the loss. casualty space as well. “The P&C market has to the mortgage market. Arch is able to offer Third, Fannie Mae simplified and stream- a 90%-100% combined ratio, meaning there its expertise and analytics to Munich Re, lined the claims process. Under CIRT claims is 0%-10% profit margin, but in the mortgage while the latter brings a formidable balance are now driven by data and not by thousands of credit risk market there can be a 60%-70% sheet to the table. documents. But, with CIRT, as in the CAS pro- marginal profit,” says Fearon. However, there are still a lot of large gramme, Fannie Mae still provides transparency Even a 10% premium allocation to European names that have not yet entered about loan quality. “On our website, Fannie Mae mortgages could decrease the combined ratio the US housing risk market. One of the provides ongoing public disclosure of the perfor- (which is simply total costs divided by total notable absentees is Swiss Re. As Fearon mance of all the loans covered in CIRT and CAS revenue) at some firms by 6% points or more, says, lack of proximity to the market and the transactions, as well as millions of similar loans and the stock market pays a great deal of recent experience of the financial crisis are that we acquired all the way back to the year attention to combined ratios at reinsurance firms. often deterrents. 2000,” says Schaefer. “Fannie Mae also engages Finally, there is a great deal of capacity Arch’ bullishness back in 2013 has paid third party due diligence providers to conduct in the mortgage risk sector and it is set to off. Although Fannie and Freddie are retaining additional reviews of a portion of the loans that grow further. There are two big growth areas less exposure than before, there have been we acquire, and a summary of those reviews are for the reinsurance market – mortgage risk minimal losses in the market in its six years posted on our website,” he adds and cyber risk. But the mortgage market has of existence. “The loss experience has been Though the reinsurance segment currently much more data and certainty of coverage pristine and we continue to see favourable accounts for around 25%-30% of the entire CRT than in cyber world. returns in this line of business” says Fearon. market, it can expand if conditions in the capital markets arena become difficult. In 2015, for example, spreads widened in both the CAS and STACR sectors, yet the agencies were able to increase the share of risk they deposited into the reinsurance market. “The theory was proven right in 2015. Freddie Mac, for example, was able to increase the 25% of risk it had shared with reinsurance markets to THOUGH THE REINSURANCE 40%. This was a signal to the capital markets and a demonstration of prudent risk management by SEGMENT“ CURRENTLY ACCOUNTS the reinsurance market’” recalls Koutris. FOR AROUND 25%-30% OF THE ENTIRE CRT MARKET, IT CAN EXPAND IF CONDITIONS IN THE CAPITAL MARKETS ARENA BECOME DIFFICULT ” 16 Analysis for the risk transfer community | structuredcreditinvestor.com/mrtreport2020/
US MRT Research Report
CHAPTER FIVE: THE ILN MARKET
ortgage insurance has Moreover, as they insured loans with an LTV be re-underwritten before they could be insured, been around for a long of 80% or more, they were right in the firing line but the insurers decided to take a leaf out of the time, since the late 1950s, when things got ugly. GSEs’ book and transfer risk. They looked at CAS but the decision to secu- Three mortgage insurers went into liquida- and STACR and realised that these programmes ritise the receivables into tion, and the ones that survived did so only after offered an appropriate mechanism to manage the mortgage insurance-linked notes (ILNs) is a paying out vast sums in claims and contesting, or long tail risk inherent in mortgage exposure. Mrelatively recent phenomenon. Arch MI, one rescinding, equally vast sums. “The industry was “We needed to actively manage the risk, and of the six mortgage insurers in this market, devastated. It had paid billions in claims and also one of the best ways to do this was to transfer issued the inaugural deal, Bellemeade 2015-1, determined it was not obligated to pay billions a portion of that risk to other private market in mid-2015. more. A primary focus has been to re-establish participants – ideally sophisticated participants Prior to the appearance of ILNs, there were credibility,” says James Bennison, evp, alternative that could enhance our understanding of what three principal methods by which the lender markets, at Arch Capital. is going on in the housing market. This was a might achieve the required level of credit Arch entered the mortgage insurance market fundamental change to the mortgage insurance enhancement: recourse agreements, participa- after the crisis by buying the assets of one of the operating model,” says Bennison. tion agreements and mortgage insurance. The defunct insurers, but it was clear to it, as it was to ILNs operate in the same way as credit-linked first two involve the lender retaining a portion the insurers still standing, that mortgage insur- notes. The mortgage insurer creates a special of the risk, but mortgage insurance effectively ance would have to be done very differently in the purpose vehicle, and the receivables – in this case takes the risk off the books and for this reason, future. There were clear problems with flat rate the insurance premiums – provide the interest mortgage insurance became the default mecha- pricing, and the majority of loans would have to paid on the notes. nism by which lenders secured the necessary credit enhancement. Mortgage insurance was first developed by the Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Company (MGIC) in Milwaukee over 60 years ago, but, by the 1970s, as margins were attractive and losses THE INDUSTRY WAS DEVASTATED. negligible, more names had entered the market so that there were by the end of that decade IT“ HAD PAID BILLIONS IN CLAIMS there were about 20 different names offering both lender paid and borrower paid mortgage insurance. Mainly through consolidation and AND ALSO DETERMINED IT WAS NOT merger, this number had shrunk to seven by the mid-2000s. OBLIGATED TO PAY BILLIONS MORE This situation unravelled, as so much else did, during the financial crisis. Although the ” mortgage insurers had encountered serious downturns in the housing market before, in Structure of collateralised ILS/cat bond transaction which they had lost millions, the 2007-2008 cri- Counterpart sis was nationwide; there was no hiding from it. contract SPV Note proceeds Sponsor Insurance Investors compan Premium Interest pa ment Co atera trust