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Scottish Budget 2020-21

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Scottish Budget 2020-21 SPICe Briefing Pàipear-ullachaidh SPICe Scottish Budget 2020-21 Ross Burnside, Allan Campbell, Andrew Feeney-Seale, Nicola Hudson, Greig Liddell and Alison O'Connor This briefing summarises the Scottish Government's spending and tax plans for 2020-21. More detailed presentation of the budget figures can be found in our Budget spreadsheets. Infographics created by Andrew Aiton, Kayleigh Finnigan and Laura Gilman. 10 February 2020 SB 20-12 Scottish Budget 2020-21, SB 20-12 Contents Executive Summary _____________________________________________________4 Context for Budget 2020-21 _______________________________________________6 Overall spending ________________________________________________________7 Budget allocations ______________________________________________________9 Total allocations ________________________________________________________9 Portfolio allocations ____________________________________________________10 Resource and Capital allocations _________________________________________ 11 Social Security ________________________________________________________12 Largest real terms increases and decreases ________________________________14 Taxation policies and revenues ___________________________________________16 Income tax ___________________________________________________________16 Income tax proposals _________________________________________________16 Income tax revenues _________________________________________________17 Impact on individuals _________________________________________________18 National Insurance contributions ________________________________________18 Behavioural impacts__________________________________________________19 Devolved taxes _______________________________________________________19 Non-Domestic Rates _________________________________________________19 Land and Buildings Transaction Tax _____________________________________21 Scottish Landfill Tax __________________________________________________21 Block grant adjustment _________________________________________________22 Reconciliation of forecasts to actual data ___________________________________23 Scotland Reserve ______________________________________________________25 The Scottish Fiscal Commission forecasts _________________________________26 GDP forecasts ________________________________________________________26 Wider economic factors _________________________________________________27 Productivity_________________________________________________________27 Earnings ___________________________________________________________27 Employment ________________________________________________________28 UK comparison _______________________________________________________28 Linking the SFC forecasts to the budget ____________________________________29 Forecasts for devolved taxes_____________________________________________29 Non-savings, non-dividend income tax ___________________________________30 Non-Domestic Rates _________________________________________________30 2 Scottish Budget 2020-21, SB 20-12 Land and Buildings Transaction Tax _____________________________________31 Scottish landfill tax ___________________________________________________32 Social security forecasts ________________________________________________32 Capital and infrastructure________________________________________________34 Borrowing powers _____________________________________________________34 Financial Transactions __________________________________________________35 Revenue financed projects ______________________________________________36 Innovative financing ____________________________________________________36 Revenue financing and the 5% cap ________________________________________36 National Infrastructure Mission ___________________________________________37 Local Government______________________________________________________38 Headline figures_______________________________________________________38 Revenue funding ______________________________________________________38 Capital funding________________________________________________________39 COSLA's response ____________________________________________________39 Will these spending or tax proposals change? ______________________________40 Climate change and Carbon Assessment___________________________________41 Planned improvements in carbon assessments ______________________________43 Budgets and Outcomes _________________________________________________44 Equality and Fairer Scotland Budget Statement _____________________________45 What is an "equality budgeting" approach? __________________________________45 Climate change and equalities____________________________________________45 Public Sector Pay ______________________________________________________47 Bibliography___________________________________________________________48 3 Scottish Budget 2020-21, SB 20-12 Executive Summary This year's Scottish Budget is being published later than normal and in advance of the UK Government’s Budget, which is scheduled for next month. The later than normal publication has implications for the time available for parliamentary scrutiny of the Scottish Government’s proposals. Preceding the UK Government’s Budget also means that the total Scottish spending envelope for 2020-21 is still uncertain. Although the UK has now left the EU, the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) judge that with UK-EU trade terms yet to be determined, "Brexit remains a risk to continued economic growth." The SFC's economic growth forecasts point to a continuing period of subdued economic growth and a downgrading of already weak productivity growth. The Government's income tax proposals mean that all Scottish taxpayers will pay less income tax in 2020-21 than 2019-20. However, these differences are small - 36p per week for those earning less than £24,000 per year rising to £2.50 per year for higher earners. Compared with current rates and bands for taxpayers in the rest of the UK (rUK), those earning less than £27,000 will pay slightly less (around £21 per year). Those earning more than £27,000 will pay more tax in Scotland than they would in rUK. According to the Scottish Government, this comprises 44% of taxpayers. The differential is in excess of £1,500 per annum for those earning over £50,000. The Scottish Government's decision not to replicate rUK tax policy also means that tax receipts are forecast to be around £650 million higher than would otherwise be the case (before accounting for any behavioural responses). However, these higher tax revenues are forecast to be almost entirely offset by the deduction to the Scottish budget via the block grant adjustment (BGA). SFC forecasts estimate that this £650 million differential will only generate £46 million more than is deducted by the BGA. So, rather than generating an additional £650 million for the Scottish budget, the different income tax policy is only just managing to offset the BGA. The Scottish Budget also faces a downward reconciliation of £207 million in 2020-21, £204 million of which arises from income tax receipts being different to the level forecast when the 2017-18 budget was set. The Scottish Government plans to manage this downward reconciliation by using its Resource Borrowing powers for the first time. The income tax reconciliation outlook is looking more gloomy for subsequent years. Latest SFC forecasts and Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) BGA forecasts (from March 2019) for 2018-19 point to a negative reconciliation of £555 million to be made to the 2021-22 Budget and a reduction of £211 million in the 2022-23 Budget from latest 2019-20 outturn forecast. On the spending side, Health is again the clear budgetary priority of the Scottish Government. The briefing considers some of the performance outcome information in this key policy area and notes that in Health (and also Education) there has been no improvement in performance over the most recent reporting period. The Health National Outcome in the National Performance Framework (NPF) is underpinned by a total of nine indicators. Despite large real terms Health spending increases in recent years, none of these indicators show any improvement in performance over the most recent period. In the Healthy life expectancy indicator, there is in fact a worsening of performance between 2014-16 and 2016-18. 4 Scottish Budget 2020-21, SB 20-12 In recent years, local government has been the focus of much parliamentary debate. As ever, there are a wide range of interpretations that can be made of the local government numbers. This year's overall settlement is more generous - on the resource side, the "discretionary" element of the budget is essentially flat in real terms, and once ring fenced grants are included it shows a real terms increase of 1.6% (or £159 million). However, there is still a debate about how much of the "discretionary" budget is in fact fully under the control of local government, and how much is allocated to Scottish Government priorities. COSLA states that “the reality behind this figure unfortunately is quite different” and that in their view there was “a cut to Local Government core budgets of £95 million.” The Budget for 2020-21 contains a big increase in the Social Security budget which rises to £3.7 billion, due to the transfer of financial responsibility of £3.2 billion in social security payments. Although the SFC forecasts and the Social Security provisional BGA are forecast to broadly match in 2020-21, the SFC warns that future years are less likely to be so closely aligned
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