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Report on Scottish Government Budget 2020-21 Published in Scotland by the Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body Published 21 February 2020 SP Paper 683 1st Report, 2020 (Session 5) Finance and Constitution Committee Comataidh Ionmhais is Bun-reachd Report on Scottish Government Budget 2020-21 Published in Scotland by the Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body. All documents are available on the Scottish For information on the Scottish Parliament contact Parliament website at: Public Information on: http://www.parliament.scot/abouttheparliament/ Telephone: 0131 348 5000 91279.aspx Textphone: 0800 092 7100 Email: [email protected] © Parliamentary copyright. Scottish Parliament Corporate Body The Scottish Parliament's copyright policy can be found on the website — www.parliament.scot Contents INTRODUCTION 1 STRATEGIC CONTEXT FOR BUDGET 2019-20 1 Economic Outlook 4 Wellbeing Budget 7 SCOTTISH INCOME TAX 9 Income Tax Revenue Forecasts 10 Net Tax Position 11 Earnings Growth 13 Employment Rates 15 Distributional Issues 16 Demographic Change 18 Behavioural Responses 19 Forecast Error 20 SOCIAL SECURITY 22 Block Grant Adjustments 23 Forecast Error 26 MANAGING BUDGET VOLATILITY 28 Resource Borrowing 28 Scotland Reserve 29 Managing Reconciliations 30 EU FUNDING 34 EU Structural Funds 35 CAP 36 Erasmus+ and Horizon 2020 37 SCOTTISH PARLIAMENTARY CORPORATE BODY 38 Office Holders 39 Brexit 40 CONCLUSION 40 Finance and Constitution Committee Budget scrutiny 2020-21, 10th Report (Session 5) Finance and Constitution Committee To consider and report on the following (and any additional matter added under Rule 6.1.5A)— (a) any report or other document laid before the Parliament by members of the Scottish Government containing proposals for, or budgets of, public revenue or expenditure or proposals for the making of a Scottish rate resolution, taking into account any report or recommendations concerning such documents made to them by any other committee with power to consider such documents or any part of them; (b) any report made by a committee setting out proposals concerning public revenue or expenditure; (c) Budget Bills; and (d) any other matter relating to or affecting the revenue or expenditure of the Scottish Administration or other monies payable into or expenditure payable out of the Scottish Consolidated Fund. (e) constitutional matters falling within the responsibility of the Cabinet Secretary for Government Business and Constitutional Relations. http://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/CurrentCommittees/Finance- Constitution-Committee.aspx [email protected] 0131 348 5215 Finance and Constitution Committee Budget scrutiny 2020-21, 10th Report (Session 5) Committee Membership Convener Deputy Convener Bruce Crawford Adam Tomkins Scottish National Party Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party Tom Arthur Neil Bibby Scottish National Party Scottish Labour Alexander Burnett Angela Constance Scottish Conservative Scottish National Party and Unionist Party Murdo Fraser Patrick Harvie Scottish Conservative Scottish Green Party and Unionist Party Gordon MacDonald John Mason Scottish National Party Scottish National Party Alex Rowley Scottish Labour Finance and Constitution Committee Budget scrutiny 2020-21, 1st Report, 2020 (Session 5) INTRODUCTION 1. The Scottish Government published its Budget for 2020-21 on 6 February 20201. This report sets out the views of the Finance and Constitution Committee (“the Committee”) on Budget 2020-21. 2. This is the second year of the Parliament’s new budget scrutiny process following the recommendations of the Budget Process Review Group2 (BPRG). 3. An integral element of the new process is that the subject committees now undertake a year-round approach to Budget scrutiny which should be more effective in influencing the Scottish Government’s spending decisions. This approach helps committees to develop a cumulative understanding of spending decisions within their respective portfolios and the impact of these decisions on outcomes. 4. A key feature of this new approach is the publication of pre-budget reports at least 6 weeks prior to the publication of the Budget. Chapter 4 of the Scottish Government’s Budget document sets out how this pre-budget scrutiny by the Parliament’s committees has influenced the formulation of the Scottish Budget. Each committee also received a more detailed response from their respective Ministers to pre-budget reports. 5. The Committee’s own pre-budget report was published on 12 November 2019 and we received a response from the Minister for Trade, Investment and Innovation. The Committee also received a response from the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC).3 The Committee was supported in our scrutiny of the Budget by our Adviser on the Fiscal Framework4, Dr David Eiser and by the Financial Scrutiny Unit (FSU) in the Scottish Parliament’s Information Centre (SPICe)5. STRATEGIC CONTEXT FOR BUDGET 2020-21 6. This year’s budget process is unprecedented. This is because there was no UK fiscal event in the Autumn and, therefore, there were no corresponding economic and fiscal forecasts from the Office for Budget 1 https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-budget-2020-21/ 2 https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/Reports/BPRG_-_Final_Report_30.06.17.pdf 3https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/General%20Documents/Letter_from_Dame_Susan _Rice_to_the_FCC_in_response_to_2020-21.pdf 4https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/General%20Documents/Fiscal_Framework_briefing .pdf 5 https://sp-bpr-en-prod-cdnep.azureedge.net/published/2020/2/10/Scottish-Budget-2020- 21/SB%2020-12.pdf 1 Finance and Constitution Committee Budget scrutiny 2020-21, 1st Report, 2020 (Session 5) and Responsibility (OBR). Consequently, there are a number of risks which the Scottish Government have had to address when deciding their budget proposals as follows – • Uncertainty regarding the size of the Block Grant; • Provisional Block Grant Adjustments; • Uncertainty regarding the impact of UK Policy Changes. 7. The lack of an Autumn UK Budget means there is less certainty than normal regarding the size of the Block Grant. HM Treasury have agreed that the Block Grant includes Barnett consequentials of around £1.2 billion6 from the UK Government spending round settlement in September 2019. 8. The Scottish Government has also included a further £468m of anticipated Barnett consequentials in its spending limits for 2020/21 “that could be forthcoming” in the UK Budget in March. The £468m is “derived from the costings document in the Conservative Party 2019 election manifesto.” The Scottish Government explain that the “purpose of including this estimate is to limit as far as possible the potential variance between the Budget Bill” and the “the subsequent outcomes from the UK Budget on 11 March 2020.”7 The SFC’s view is that this is a “reasonable” approach.8 9. As required by the Fiscal Framework, HM Treasury have provided the Scottish Government with provisional Block Grant Adjustments (BGAs). The provisional BGAs for income tax have been calculated using forecasts published by the OBR in its Welsh taxes outlook in December 2019.9 10. These forecasts are based on economic determinants from the OBR’s March 2019 forecasts and have only been revised to reflect updated outturn data including monthly PAYE data during 2019-20. The OBR did not publish restated forecasts of welfare expenditure alongside the Welsh Budget, and its forecasts from the 2019 UK Spring Statement will therefore be used to inform the provisional BGAs for the devolved Social Security benefits. 11. The Fraser of Allander Institute’s (FAI) view is that in the absence of UKG policy change, the change to the BGAs for income tax could actually be relatively small, “as there has not been fundamental change to economic conditions and no major surprises on tax receipts.”10 Likewise, the risk of 6 https://www.parliament.scot/FinancialScrutiny/20190905_AdditionalFundingSince2015SR.xlsx 7 https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-budget-2020-21/ page 245 8 https://www.fiscalcommission.scot/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Scotlands-Economic-and- Fiscal-Forecasts-February-2020.pdf paragraph 11 9 https://obr.uk/topics/scotland-wales-and-northern-ireland/welsh-tax-forecasts/ 10 https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/budget/the-timing-of-the-scottish-budget- 2020-21-implications-uncertainties-and-risks/ 2 Finance and Constitution Committee Budget scrutiny 2020-21, 1st Report, 2020 (Session 5) material changes between the provisional and final BGAs for social security in the absence of policy change is also fairly small according to the FAI. 12. HM Treasury have agreed that it is content for the Scottish Government to use the updated BGAs provided alongside the UK Budget on 11 March. This means that should the updated BGAs be lower than the provisional BGAs, using the former would ensure that the Scottish Budget benefited in 2020-21. The former Cabinet Secretary indicated that if the BGAs are lower, the Government will manage the changes via an in-year budget revision for 2020-21. Regardless of whether the 2020/21 Budget is informed by the ‘provisional’ or ‘updated’ BGAs, the Government will need to manage any risk arising from the outturn BGAs being higher than the provisional BGAs through the normal reconciliation process. In relation to income tax this means addressing the risk in the 2023-24 Budget. 13. The final risk which is potentially more significant is UK policy change. While there is little immediate downside risk to the Budget, as explained in the two previous paragraphs, there may nevertheless be immediate policy risks and longer term fiscal
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