COUNTRY REPORT Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.

COUNTRY OFFICE

STEFANIE TURKANIK DR. MANUEL SCHUBERT MONA DEEB Vow Renewal IMKE HAASE JORDAN AND THE US AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TRUMP ERA

APRIL 2017

1 While ’s executive orders human rights, etc.” According to Al- www.kas.de/ and the focus of his administration on Sabaileh, Jordan had a clear role during “America first” have left many political President George W. Bush’s war, and

leaders in the world with sentiments an over-privileged relationship with the US

ranging from apprehension and antici- 2 administration. The scope of Jordan’s in- pation to dread and fear, the relation- volvement in world politics, and the finan- ship between the US and the Jordanian cial support given, “spoiled” both the gov- government is stronger than ever. ernment and the population into having an Abdullah II was the first Arab leader,

indeed one of the first world leaders, to overblown perception of Jordan’s role in the

meet with President Trump on the 2nd , as well as its importance in

of February 2017. Last week, just two global politics.

days before the US response to the al- leged chemical attack by Bashar Al- The reliance on the US was further en- Assad’s forces in Khan Sheikhoun, King hanced by former President Obama’s for- Abdullah II and President Trump met eign policy, as well as the outbreak of the for the second time. Both leaders have and Jordan’s crucial role as stated their commitment to peace ef- forts and anti-terrorism strategies, re- a leading refugee host country. In February affirming Jordan’s role as mediator, 2016, Jordan’s ruling monarch King Abdul- military and strategic ally to the US. lah II said in a press conference with Presi- dent Obama, “[t]he help that we’ve gotten Background from you, Mr. President, from your admin- istration, from the Congress, and the people Each new administration inadvertently takes of the is something that is on the consequences of the previous admin- very difficult to express in any words. And istration’s policies. It is therefore important we are very, very grateful for that.”3 This to understand the history of cooperation be- can also be seen in Obama’s budget pro- tween Jordan and the US, and consequently

to know what to expect from Trump’s presi-

dency. Jordanian political analyst, journalist 1 Interview with Amer Al-Sabaileh, 2nd March and Director of MEMPSI, the Center for 2017, conducted by KAS Jordan. 2 nd Strategic and International Studies, Amer Interview with Amer Al-Sabaileh, 2 March Al-Sabaileh, argues that, “usually, Arabs 2017, conducted by KAS Jordan. 3 The , “Remarks by President Obama favour Republicans more than Democrats, and His Majesty King Abdullah of Jordan After Bi- simply because they are less demanding on lateral Meeting”, 24.02.2016. crucial issues like liberties, political reform, [https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the- press-office/2016/02/24/remarks-president- obama-and-his-majesty-king-abdullah-jordan- after] (Last accessed 08.04.2017).

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Konrad Adenauer Foundation posal for fiscal year 2017: Jordan is the the wariness were Donald Trump’s state- second-largest recipient of US development ments during his presidential campaign, as COUNTRY OFFICE assistance, with 632.4 million USD (merely his “views on Middle Eastern crises and JORDAN succeeding Afghanistan and its 1 billion problems [were] vague, incomplete or sim- USD), receiving 367.6 million USD for secu- plistic declarative sentences.”7 A growing STEFANIE TURKANIK rity assistance, and is in fifth place with re- majority of political analysts, however, were DR. MANUEL SCHUBERT spect to total foreign aid (preceded by Af- clinging to the idea that Donald Trump will MONA DEEB ghanistan, , , and Iraq).4 With a be different as a president, growing in his IMKE HAASE struggling economy and the corresponding responsibility and understanding. APRIL 2017 growth of internal dissatisfaction, Jordan continues to be in dire need of foreign aid, The excitement about Trump’s election is www.kas.de/amman and its security and development would be due to the aforementioned enhanced rela- severely impeded without the financial sup- tionship of the with Republicans, port of the United States. and the perception of Trump as a compe- tent businessman. Tamara Abdel-Jaber, one To date, the US has also needed Jordan. It of the most successful business and IT con- is perceived as an “” in the sultants in the region, credits the excite- Middle East, eager to cooperate with West- ment to the notion that Trump could be dif- ern democracies, and has a geo- ferent from previous administrations, and strategically valuable location – between therefore better for Jordan.8 According to Israel, , Iraq and . Both Director of the Jordanian branch of Opera- the United States’ use of Jordan as a mili- tion Mercy, Bob Cole, the Arab worldview tary base, and Jordan’s role as mediator in favours strong, male leaders, mostly with- peace talks made the relationship between out a critical position towards their words or the two countries indispensable.5 actions, as long as the population is taken care of. In this sense Obama was often seen When Donald Trump was elected, the im- as weak, while Trump is perceived as a mediate reactions in Jordan seemed to be pragmatic leader “who knows what he either excited, wary, or both. 6 Reasons for wants and gets things done.” 9 Amer Al- Sabaileh argued in November 2016 that,

“while the people of the Arab and Muslim

4 Bearak, Max & Gamio, Lazaro, “The U.S. foreign aid budget, visualized: From building wells to presidency-mean-for-the-Middle-East-.html] (Last building armies”, in , accessed 08.04.2017). 18.10.2016. 7 Melhem, Hisham, “What does a Trump presiden- [https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world cy mean for the Middle East?”, in Al-Arabiya, /which-countries-get-the-most-foreign-aid/] (Last 26.11.2016. accessed 08.04.2017). [http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middl 5 The White House, “Remarks by President Obama e-east/2016/11/26/What-does-a-Trump- and His Majesty King Abdullah of Jordan After Bi- presidency-mean-for-the-Middle-East-.html] (Last lateral Meeting”, 24.02.2016. accessed 08.04.2017). [https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the- 8 Interview with Tamara Abdel-Jaber, 30th March press-office/2016/02/24/remarks-president- 2017, conducted by KAS Jordan. obama-and-his-majesty-king-abdullah-jordan- 9 Interview with Bob Cole, 16th March 2017, con- after] (Last accessed 08.04.2017). ducted by KAS Jordan. 6 See: Melhem, Hisham, “What does a Trump Regan, Tom, “Why many in the Middle East prefer presidency mean for the Middle East?”, in Al- Obama”, in The Arab Weekly, 01.08.2017. Arabiya, 26.11.2016. [http://www.thearabweekly.com/Opinion/7512/W [http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middl hy-many-in-the-Middle-East-prefer-Trump-over- e-east/2016/11/26/What-does-a-Trump- Obama] (Last accessed 08.04.2017).

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Konrad Adenauer Foundation world might view Trump negatively, their ter of the Israeli settlements. Following the leaders might actually be quite positive to- meeting, Trump temporarily stopped men- COUNTRY OFFICE wards him as his policies could have a posi- tioning the controversial move and encour- JORDAN tive impact for the region by creating com- aged Israel to freeze settlements. Pressed mon ground for cooperation, especially in on whether he had influenced the president STEFANIE TURKANIK combatting terrorism.”10 This theory is in on the settlement issue, King Abdullah said DR. MANUEL SCHUBERT line with the results of a study conducted by in the interview, “I think people are giving MONA DEEB the Arab Center Washington DC in the Mid- me way too much credit. They are saying IMKE HAASE dle East before the US presidential elec- that I had something to do with it […] I just 14 APRIL 2017 tions, where 62% of Jordanian respondents expressed my views.” voted their sentiment towards Donald www.kas.de/amman Trump as “negative overall” (only 33% vot- On the 5th of April 2017 - one day after a ed this for Hillary Clinton), and 68% fa- toxic gas killed over 80 civilians in Syria’s voured Hillary Clinton as the next US Presi- Idlib province and two days before President dent (as opposed to 9% favouring Trump gave order to launch 59 missiles tar- Trump).11 Further, a similar number of re- geting Assad’s Al Shayrat airfield base, spondents in Jordan (roughly 30%) believed Trump and Abdullah met again. Just before that the new US President would either “not the official White House meeting, King Ab- change” or “slightly change” US foreign pol- dullah II had a remarkably candid interview icy towards the Arab world, while 67% of with the Washington Post about the key role Jordanians believed Hillary Clinton would he expects to play with the president in re- bring about a positive impact in policy to- viving the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace wards the Arab world (with 11% for talks, and about the need for the United Trump).12 Most importantly, however, a States to engage with Russian President staggering 70% of Jordanian respondents and perhaps make some con- believed Hillary Clinton to have a positive cessions to solve the crisis in Syria.15 Both impact towards their own country, and a the questions and answers in the interview mere 7% believed the same for Donald also indicate that the president might have Trump.13 heeded the King’s advice and may continue to do so. Jordan currently appears to be Most likely, these initial perceptions have back as one of the most influential strategic changed as a result of the cordial and re- US allies in the region. However, stability in sponsive rapport between President Trump Syria and counter-terrorism are not the only and King Abdullah II. During their first fields of interest for the US and Jordan. Are meeting on the 2nd of February 2017, Trump there still possible points of conflict and ten- and Abdullah discussed the issue of moving sion between the Trump administration and the US Embassy to and the mat- the Jordanian government?

10 Al-Sabaileh, Amer, “Donald Trump Seen From 14 Weymouth, Lally, “King Abdullah: Compromise The Arab & ”, in Atlantic Treaty As- With Russia on Crimea to Get Its Help in Syria,” sociation, 24.11.2016. 15 Weymouth, Lally, “King Abdullah: Compromise [http://atahq.org/2016/11/donald-trump-seen- With Russia on Crimea to Get Its Help in Syria,” in from-the-arab-muslim-world/] (Last accessed The Washington Post, April 6, 2017 08.04.2017). [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/king- 11 Arab Center Washington DC, “Arab Public Opin- abdullah-compromise-with-russia-on-crimea-to- ion and US Presidential Elections 2016”, get-its-help-in-syria/2017/04/06/b985b894-1a61- 01.11.2016: p. 5-6. 11e7-bcc2- 12 Arab Center Washington DC: p. 8-9. 7d1a0973e7b2_story.html?utm_term=.27cf427cd 13 Arab Center Washington DC: p. 10. 57f] (Last accessed on 11.04.2017).

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Konrad Adenauer Foundation my attitude toward Syria and Assad has 18 Anti-Terrorism & the Stability of Syria changed very much.” COUNTRY OFFICE JORDAN To end the civil war in Syria and effectively These developments have shown President counter terrorism - primarily against the so- Trump’s interest in the Middle East, and his STEFANIE TURKANIK called Islamic State (ISIS) - are high priori- desire to “fix this mess”19. Apparently, DR. MANUEL SCHUBERT ties for both the new US administration and “America first” means that the new admin- MONA DEEB Jordan. During the joint press conference istration feels responsible for protecting IMKE HAASE between King Abdullah II and President human rights in Syria and that it will main- th APRIL 2017 Trump on 5 of April 2017, this alignment tain an active military involvement in the 16 of interests was strongly emphasised. Middle East. www.kas.de/amman Trump stated that, “The King has been a leader in calling for a plan to defeat ISIS Some Trump supporters, and even former once and for all. […] We’re both leaders on critics, see the unexpected US response to that, believe me. That's what we speak Bashar Al-Assad’s alleged chemical attack in about today, and that is what we are going Khan Sheikhoun in a positive light. The to do. And it will be a shorter fight than a strike signalled that the US would not toler- lot of people are thinking about […] We will ate any action that crosses the “red line.” destroy ISIS and we will protect civilization. Many veterans of President Obama’s team […] King Abdullah and I also discussed considered his handling of Syria his biggest measures to combat the evil ideology inspir- failing and expressed regret that their ad- 17 ing ISIS and plagues our planet.” ministration did not stop a war that left more than 400,000 dead and millions dis- Peace in Syria is desirable for Trump’s ad- placed.20 This positive attitude towards the ministration in so far as it would curtail ter- missile attack on the Shayrat airfield is rorism in the region, as well as provide the shared by many Jordanians including high- symbolic prestige of “ending the Syrian Civil ranking officials. War.” Right after the toxic gas killings in Syria, President Trump said he had a change of heart regarding Assad. “I like to

think of myself as a very flexible person. […] And I will tell you, that attack on chil- 18 The White House, “Remarks by President Trump dren […] had a big impact on me - big im- and His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan in Joint Press Conference”, 05.04.2017. pact. […] And I have that flexibility, and […] [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press- office/2017/04/05/remarks-president-trump-and- his-majesty-king-abdullah-ii-jordan-joint] (Last 16 The White House, “Remarks by President Trump accessed 08.04.2017). and His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan in Joint 19 The White House, “Remarks by President Trump Press Conference”, 05.04.2017. and His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan in Joint [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press- Press Conference”, 05.04.2017. office/2017/04/05/remarks-president-trump-and- [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press- his-majesty-king-abdullah-ii-jordan-joint] (Last office/2017/04/05/remarks-president-trump-and- accessed 08.04.2017). his-majesty-king-abdullah-ii-jordan-joint] (Last 17 The White House, “Remarks by President Trump accessed 08.04.2017). and His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan in Joint 20 Baker, Peter, “For Obama, Syria Chemical At- Press Conference”, 05.04.2017. tack Shows Risk of ‘Deals With Dictators’, in The [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press- New York Times, April 9, 2017 office/2017/04/05/remarks-president-trump-and- [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/09/us/politics his-majesty-king-abdullah-ii-jordan-joint] (Last /obama-syria-chemicAl-weapons.html?_r=0] (Last accessed 08.04.2017). accessed

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Konrad Adenauer Foundation Jordan also seeks peace and stability in Syr- However, there may also be points of ten- ia, as it would increase the security of its sion between the two countries regarding COUNTRY OFFICE own northern border, and fill the vacuum concrete anti-terrorism measures. During JORDAN the so-called Islamic State is currently oc- his campaign, Trump announced his inten- cupying. Counterterrorism has been a high tion to put the on the STEFANIE TURKANIK priority for Jordan, since many of the lead- terrorist list. Although already banned in DR. MANUEL SCHUBERT ing emirs of terrorist cells were raised or Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab MONA DEEB educated in Jordan. “Their theories are from Emirates, Jordan traditionally pursued its IMKE HAASE Jordan. When you talk about Abdullah Az- own way of dealing with the local move- APRIL 2017 zam [Osama bin Laden’s teacher], al- ment of the Brotherhood. Its political arm, Zarqawi [one of Al Qaeda’s leading emirs], the , is the largest fac- www.kas.de/amman al-Maqdisi [al-Zarqawi’s spiritual mentor], tion in the Jordanian parliament. So far, and or Abu Sayyaf [head of the Jordanian Jihadi after interventions from Jordanian diplo- Salafist Movement] – all these big names mats, the US Administration has put a hold are from Jordan,”21 Jamal al-Shalabi points on Trump’s executive order.24 Nonetheless, out. As Professor of Political Science at the Oraib Al-Rantawi states that the Jordanian Hashemite University, Al-Shalabi argues Muslim Brotherhood is not in good shape that Jordan’s political cooperation with Isra- regarding relations with the West at large, el and the bad economic situation are the including, in particular, the Trump admin- cause for the ideology’s manifestation. In istration.25 The Director of the Al Quds Cen- order to curtail home-grown terrorism, King ter for Political Science believes that the Abdullah II pioneered the , Muslim Brotherhood opened the channels of a call for tolerance and unity in the Muslim communication with governing institutions world. Other initiatives have also been too late, losing their relevance first, and launched in order to work against extremist credibility second. Although there is belief ideas.22 that the current US President will not go through with his threat, it is a “Trump-card” Trump and King Abdullah maintain that Jor- which – if played – would present a signifi- dan and the US are seeking the same goal. cant challenge to the Jordanian leadership. Indeed, King Abdullah stated that, “[t]he If handled well, it could lead to a progres- challenges we face today […] are global, sive separation of the religious and civic as- and particularly the threats to global securi- pects in institutions led by the Muslim ty. Terrorism has no borders, no nationality, Brotherhood, as well as in Jordan in gen- no religion, and, therefore, joint action with eral. However, should the leadership be un- a holistic approach […] is crucial. I am very able to effectively manage the transition, it delighted that you [President Trump] have the vision to be able to move in that direc-

tion and I think that the world will be in a very good place as we move with all these [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press- office/2017/04/05/remarks-president-trump-and- challenges ahead.”23 his-majesty-king-abdullah-ii-jordan-joint] (Last accessed 08.04.2017). 24 Taylor, Guy, “How to deal with Muslim Brother- 21 Interview with Jamal Al-Shalabi, 19th March hood triggers Trump White House infighting,” in 2017, conducted by KAS Jordan. The Washington Times, March 27, 2017 22 Interview with Jamal Al-Shalabi, 19th March [http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/ma 2017, conducted by KAS Jordan. r/27/muslim-brotherhood-listing-as-terror-group- 23 The White House, “Remarks by President Trump delayed/] (Last accessed on 11.04.2017). and His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan in Joint 25 Interview with Oraib Al-Rantawi, 5th March Press Conference”, 05.04.2017. 2017, conducted by KAS Jordan.

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28 Konrad Adenauer Foundation could give rise to revolutions akin to the Ar- mands for a response,” argues Director of 26 ab Spring. the Arab-American Institute, James J. Zog- COUNTRY OFFICE by. Jordan would be affected by this unrest JORDAN Israeli and due to the high percentage of Palestinians in the country, and the fact that the holy STEFANIE TURKANIK One matter Jordanian prominent political sites in Jerusalem are under Jordanian ju- DR. MANUEL SCHUBERT analysts Oraib al-Rantawi, Amer al-Sabaileh risdiction.29 MONA DEEB and Jamal al-Shalabi agree on is that IMKE HAASE Trump’s foreign policy towards Israel could Due to Donald Trump’s “great respect for 30 APRIL 2017 potentially have the greatest long-term con- King Abdullah II,” it fell to the Jordanian sequences in Jordan. The Palestinian Cause leadership to point out the destabilizing www.kas.de/amman is a top priority for Jordan, due to the high confusion caused by Trump’s remarks, not percentage of Palestinians in the country. to mention the risk of fuelling anti-Israeli Jordan has had to strike a difficult balance and anti-US sentiments, chaos that could between being politically peaceful and so- occur if he followed through. As a likely re- cially antagonistic. This means that, practi- sult of the conversations held between cally, the Jordanian government opposes Trump and Abdullah, the White House is- policies and advocates for sued the following statement on 2nd of Feb- the two-state-solution. ruary: “While we don't believe the existence of settlements is an impediment to peace, The fact that President Trump tasked his the construction of new settlements or the leading adviser on Middle Eastern affairs expansion of existing settlements beyond and pro-settlement son-in-law Jared Kush- their current borders may not be helpful in ner with “doing peace” in the Middle East achieving that goal.”31 already caused concern in Jordan and the 27 wider region. Even more disconcerting Oraib Al-Rantawi also argues in favour of were the claims made during Trump’s cam- Jordan’s strategic importance to the US. paign that he would relocate the US embas- “The results of the King’s first visit and sy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem after his in- meeting with Trump and the administration auguration. The move would likely be

threatening to stability, as Jerusalem is viewed as the capital by both Israelis and 28 Zogby, James J. “Washington Watch: Don’t Palestinians. Relocating the US embassy Mess with Jerusalem”, in Arab-American Institute, 14.01.2017. would be indicative of a global acknowledg- [http://www.aaiusa.org/don_t_mess_with_jerusal ment of Jerusalem as the legitimate capital em] (Last accessed 08.04.2017). of Israel. “[M]essing with Jerusalem would 29 Khoury, Jack, “Palestinians, Jordan Agree to be the catalyst for a focused and unified Ar- Take Steps if U.S. Moves Embassy to Jerusalem”, ab and Muslim response. There would be in Haaretz, 22.01.2017. massive unrest across the region and de- [http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east- news/palestinians/1.766824] (Last accessed 08.04.2017). 26 Interview with Amer Al-Sabaileh, 2nd March 30 Trump, Donald, via , 08.12.2015. 2017, conducted by KAS Jordan. [https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/6743 82044097449985?lang=en] (Last accessed 27 Kantor, Jodi, “For Kushner, Israel Policy May Be 08.04.2017). Shaped by the Personal”, in , 31 The White House, “Statement by the Press Sec- 11.02.2017. retary”, 02.02.2017. [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/11/us/politics [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press- /jared-kushner-israel.html] (Last accessed office/2017/02/02/statement-press-secretary] 08.04.2017). (Last accessed 08.04.2017).

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Konrad Adenauer Foundation were very fruitful. There is a deep under- Businesswoman Tamara Abdel-Jaber cor- standing about Jordan’s stance and the rectly predicted the King’s influence will COUNTRY OFFICE challenges we are facing,”32 Al-Rantawi ex- grow after the Arab Summit on the 29th of JORDAN plains. A New York Times article also high- March 2017 in Jordan, since he would be lighted King Abdullah’s ability to “shift poli- representing all Arab leaders.36 Indeed, the STEFANIE TURKANIK cy.”33 two leaders sung each other's high praises DR. MANUEL SCHUBERT during the press conference on April 5th, MONA DEEB However, two weeks after King Abdullah’s 2017. President Trump called King Abdullah IMKE HAASE first visit with Trump, the US President met “a thoughtful and determined partner”, a APRIL 2017 with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netan- soldier who “knows how to fight”, and a yahu. Trump’s statements in a joint press “tireless advocate" for peace in the region. www.kas.de/amman conference with Netanyahu initially seemed The Jordanian leader, on the other hand, to undo the progress made. The US Presi- praised President Trump’s "holistic vision”, dent first made casual remarks on his indif- “outlook [...] for everything that is in [the] ference between the two-state and one- region”, and his “message of hope”.37 Even state-solution, and then disconcertingly an- more importantly, however, King Abdullah nounced, “[as] far as the embassy moving commended the US President’s ability to to Jerusalem, I’d love to see that happen. discern the complexity of the political situa- We're looking at it very, very strongly.”34 tion in the Middle East. Referring to the dis- cussions he witnessed in the White House, Amer Al-Sabaileh argues that Trump’s in- the Jordanian leader stated that, “[t]he terest in the Middle East is to a greater ex- President understands the nuances and the tent business-related and less political. Ac- challenges. I think he has the courage and cording to Al-Sabaileh, “the way they the dedication to be able to do this.”38 This backed Netanyahu shows that King Abdullah vote of confidence is remarkable, but has II didn’t really affect policy.”35 Indeed, if yet to be proven. business is one of the new motivators, Jor- dan with its few resources and weak econ- Although the United States’ stance towards omy would become increasingly insignifi- Israel will remain a touchy subject, with a cant, also in regard to the mediator role it continuing potential for greater destabiliza- has taken in the Israeli-Palestinian peace tion inside Jordan should more drastic steps process. of support be taken, the political relation-

32 Interview with Oraib Al-Rantawi, 5th March 2017, conducted by KAS Jordan. 36 Interview with Tamara Abdel-Jaber, 30th March 33 Landler, Mark, Baker, Peter, & Sanger, David, 2017, conducted by KAS Jordan. “Trump Embraces Pillars of Obama’s Foreign Poli- 37 The White House, “Remarks by President Trump cy”, in The New York Times, 02.02.2017. and His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan in Joint [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/02/world/mid Press Conference”, 05.04.2017. dleeast/iran-missile-test-trump.html?_r=1] (Last [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press- accessed 08.04.2017). office/2017/04/05/remarks-president-trump-and- 34 The White House, “Remarks by President Trump his-majesty-king-abdullah-ii-jordan-joint] (Last and Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel in Joint accessed 08.04.2017). Press Conference”, 15.02.2017. 38 The White House, “Remarks by President Trump [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press- and His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan in Joint office/2017/02/15/remarks-president-trump-and- Press Conference”, 05.04.2017. prime-minister-netanyahu-israel-joint-press] (Last [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press- accessed 08.04.2017). office/2017/04/05/remarks-president-trump-and- 35 Interview with Amer Al-Sabaileh, 2nd March his-majesty-king-abdullah-ii-jordan-joint] (Last 2017, conducted by KAS Jordan. accessed 08.04.2017).

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Konrad Adenauer Foundation ship between President Trump and King Ab- Conclusion dullah II seems significantly strong. Inci- COUNTRY OFFICE dentally, this means that even the potential After months of uncertainty, the relationship JORDAN tension regarding Israel may not be as between the US and Jordan seems stronger problematic as many previously believed. than ever. The country's leaders have stat- STEFANIE TURKANIK ed their commitment to peace efforts and DR. MANUEL SCHUBERT Foreign Funding anti-terrorism strategies, and Jordan’s role MONA DEEB in the Middle East — as mediator, security IMKE HAASE As already mentioned, Jordan has been one and humanitarian asset, and reliable ally —

APRIL 2017 of the primary beneficiaries of US develop- has been re-affirmed. ment and security aid, and is heavily reliant www.kas.de/amman on foreign funding for the stability of the Despite the relief many are feeling regard- Jordanian economy, hosting refugees and ing the United States’ re-commitment to for safeguarding societal peace. Jordan, President Trump may still be seen as a “problematic president” among many President Trump’s proposed budget for Jordanians.41 Adam Baron states it is 2018 sees a 29% overall budget cut astounding how many crises Trump has (amounting to 10.9 billion USD) for state brought on himself via the social media out- and other development programmes. How- let, while Operation Mercy Director Bob Cole ever, Israel’s 3.1 billion annual security aid points out that, “with each phone call – you and, as of last week, also Jordan’s technical never know how it’s all going to develop.”42 and financial assistance should remain un- This week-to-week inconsistency in meet- touched.39 President Trump promised even ings, speeches, and tweets may continue to an increase in financial aid to Jordan. After be a difficulty for the Jordanian leadership, acknowledging Jordan's role in hosting Syri- and flexibility will be crucial.43 an refugees, he announced “additional funds to Jordan for humanitarian assis- Furthermore, Donald Trump’s alleged inabil- tance” to “host refugees until it is safe for ity to build relationships could also be a them to return home.”40 This commitment challenge. His history of a lack of sensitivi- may also be the administration’s way of ap- ty, courtesy and respect towards other peasing US citizens who have been protest- world leaders may quickly burn bridges in ing President Trump's travel ban. It seem- the Middle East. Jordan, specifically, does ingly aims to prove that the care for refu- not have the luxury of breaking off contact. gees remains intact, but will merely be “For Jordan, the US is an essential partner,” manifested in a different way. Baron states. “But Jordan also has the op- portunity to mitigate Trump's apparent ten-

dency to make hasty decisions, particularly

39 Landler, Mark, “Who Wins and Loses in Trump’s Proposed Budget”, in The New York Times, 16.03.2017. 41 Interview with Adam Baron, 22nd March 2017, [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/1 conducted by KAS Jordan. 5/us/politics/trump-budget-proposal.html] (Last 42 Interview with Adam Baron, 22nd March 2017, accessed 08.04.2017). conducted by KAS Jordan. Interview with Bob 40 The White House, “Remarks by President Trump Cole, 16th March 2017, conducted by KAS Jordan. and His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan in Joint 43 Al Jazeera, “The two faces of US President Don- Press Conference”, 05.04.2017. ald Trump”, 04.02.2017. [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press- [http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/listening office/2017/04/05/remarks-president-trump-and- post/2017/03/faces-president-donald-trump- his-majesty-king-abdullah-ii-jordan-joint] (Last 170304094901994.html] (Last Accessed accessed 08.04.2017). 08.04.2017).

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Konrad Adenauer Foundation with regards to the Israeli-Palestinian con- 44 flict.” COUNTRY OFFICE JORDAN Jordan and the United States’ public renew- al of their political vows will eliminate much STEFANIE TURKANIK of the grass-roots pessimism regarding DR. MANUEL SCHUBERT Trump and his administration. But experts MONA DEEB in Jordan agree that the local leadership will IMKE HAASE have to “educate Trump” and keep advocat- APRIL 2017 ing for the importance of the Jordanian and Palestinian narratives to the new US admin- www.kas.de/amman istration.45 This role is linked with the hope that Donald Trump and his administration will continue to grow in their understanding of the situation in Jordan and the surround- ing countries, and to develop their diplo- matic skills.

44 Interview with Adam Baron, 22nd March 2017, conducted by KAS Jordan. 45 Interview with Bob Cole, 16th March 2017, con- ducted by KAS Jordan.