© Kamla-Raj 2013 J Hum Ecol, 43(3): 203-214 (2013)
The Geopolitical Environment in Namibia: Business Challenges and Opportunities
Ravinder Rena
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences (EMS), University of the Western Cape, Private Bag: X17, Robert Sobukwe Road, Bellville 7535 South Africa E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
KEYWORDS Geopolitics. Population Grown. Migration. Namibia. Human Development
ABSTRACT Geopolitics and business development is a buzz word. There is a serious link between population growth and the environment. This is basically found somewhere between the view that population growth is solely responsible for all environmental ills and the view that more people means the development of new technologies to overcome any environmental problems. An attempt has been made in this article to discuss the geopolitical environment in Namibia and provides a comprehensive picture of the country’s, economy, polity, education and health situation in the country. It also highlights the environment and migration issues in general and how that affects a developing country like Namibia. It further argues that action is required by a broad group of policy makers in Namibia who can take important policy intervention measures that can ameliorate the current business landscape of the country.
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND toward a greater standard of living, perhaps matching the lifestyles of the more developed The link between population growth and the countries whose current consumption patterns environment is found somewhere between the and resource use are not necessarily sustain- view that population growth is solely responsi- able.2 ble for all environmental ills and the view that Further, a growing, urbanising global popu- more people means the development of new tech- lation over the next 50 years will create demand nologies to overcome any environmental prob- for more food, energy and water. Many of the lems. Most environmentalists agree that popu- modern ‘megacities’ are located in coastal areas lation growth is only one of several interacting or river deltas, which are vulnerable to rising factors that place pressure on the environment. water levels. Changes to our climate may cause High levels of consumption and industrializa- degradation of agricultural land, desertification tion, inequality in wealth and land distribution, and increased levels of water and food scarcity. inappropriate government policies, poverty, and For some, this may threaten to create a ‘perfect inefficient technologies all contribute to envi- storm’ of global events. Yet, until now, the con- ronmental degradation. In fact, population may nections between economics, demography, en- vironment and migration have been far from cer- not be a root cause in environmental decline, tain, still less the consequences for public poli- but rather just one factor among many that exac- cy. erbate or multiply the negative effects of other The number of international migrants has social, economic, and political factors.1 grown in recent years, to approximately 210 mil- Much of the world’s population live in poor lion in 2010. It is clear that international migra- countries already strained by food insecurity, tion is a significant phenomenon. It is often a inadequate sanitation, water supplies and hous- life changing event for migrants themselves ing, and an inability to meet the basic needs of since it raises a number of questions in terms of the current population. These same countries governance and relations between states. It has are also among the fastest growing places in the particular implications when the impact of envi- world. A large proportion of these populations ronmental change on migration drivers is con- are supported through subsistence agriculture. cerned, as it is likely to lead to geopolitical poli- As populations grow, competition for fertile land cy challenges across the globe. Consequently, and the use of limited resources increase. The a range of major forces are set to cause pro- people living in these countries are also moving found changes in natural and human environ- 204 RAVINDER RENA ments across the world over the next 50 years likely to affect the inhabitants of small countries (Politzer 2008; UNDP 2009). Besides climate (such as Jamaica, Luxembourg, Nauru, Solomon change, include the growth of mega-cities, land Islands, and Tuvalu). degradation and the profound consequences of Short time-span, repeated and often short an increasing global population which is con- distance moves are especially significant for suming ever more natural resources. poorer people, as well as for groups such as Yet, according to figures compiled in the 2009 women and children, who are often excluded Human Development Report, international mi- from migration analysis. It can form a critical part gration makes up only about one-fifth of total of the livelihood strategy of poor households in migration in the world, with the vast majority of vulnerable areas, and in that sense is particular- movement, conservatively estimated at 740 mil- ly relevant to adaptation to environmental lion people, occurring within national bound- change. In addition, circulation is also a devel- aries (UNDP 2009). Poor people are often affect- oping area of policy interest in terms of manag- ed by migration, as they or a family member have ing social tensions and conflicts associated with moved, often to a nearby town or village or to migration influenced by environmental change. another part of their country. Yet, poor people There is little evidence available to support the are in general very unlikely to have access to theoretical notion that environmentally induced international migration, as the cost is prohibi- conflict will cause migration, or that migration tive. Secondly, internal migration can often be influenced by environmental change will cause over substantial distances, and have significant conflict. impacts. For example, migration from one Namib- ian province to another or one South African Geopolitics -Concepts/Definitions province to another can take place over hun- dreds of kilometres, and involve movement to a In line with the 2009 Human Development place with a different language, customs or set Report, this report uses the term ‘migrant’ or of rights and entitlements. In this sense, it argu- ‘migration’ to refer to individuals who have ably deserves attention alongside international changed their place of residence either ‘by cross- migration as a significant issue for policy. ing an international border (international migra- However, thirdly, and perhaps most impor- tion) or by moving within their country of origin tant, there is some evidence to suggest that to another region, district or municipality (inter- where global environmental change does act to nal migration). In turn, human mobility (or ‘move- raise levels of migration and displacement, the ment’) is defined as ‘the ability of individuals, majority of additional migrants remain within their families or groups of people to choose their place country of origin, owing to the prohibitive cost of residence’, (UNDP 2009). People are normally of international migration. Moreover, evidence considered to be ‘migrants’ if they remain out- also suggests that internal migration is taking side their original place of residence for a period people to places where they are more rather than of at least 3 months. less vulnerable to environmental change-relat- Geopolitics refers broadly to the relationship ed risk. A generally accepted definition, and the between politics and territory whether on local one that is used here, is that internal migration or international scale. It comprises the practice should involve the crossing of a regional, dis- of analysing, prescribing, forecasting, and the trict or municipal boundary, the size and politi- using of political power over a given territory. cal significance of which will vary greatly in dif- Specifically, it is a method of foreign policy anal- ferent countries, and involve a movement last- ysis, which seeks to understand, explain and ing at least 3 months. However, this definition predict international political behaviour primari- draws attention to a key feature of migration, ly in terms of geographical variables. Those geo- which is that migration is not necessarily perma- graphical variables generally refer togeographic nent, but may involve multiple episodes of short- location of the country or countries in question, term migration, otherwise known as ‘circulation’. size of the countries involved, climate of the re- It should also be noted that internal migration is gion the countries are in, topography of the re- more likely within large countries (such as Rus- gion, demography, natural resources and tech- sia, Canada, USA, Brazil, China Australia, India nological development (Evans and Newn- Nigeria), whereas international migration is more ham1998). Traditionally, the term has applied THE GEOPOLITICAL ENVIRONMENT IN NAMIBIA 205 primarily to the impact of geography on politics, nationalist South-West Africa People’s Organi- but its usage has evolved over the past century zation (SWAPO) and others, fought against the to encompass wider connotations. apartheid government in South Africa. It was Geopolitics traditionally indicates the links closely intertwined with the South African Bor- between political power and geographic space. der War. South Africa had administered what In concrete terms, it is often seen as a body of was then still known as South West Africa since thought examining strategic prescriptions based it captured the German territory during World on the relative importance of land power and War I. In 1966, the United Nations General As- sea power in world history. The geopolitical tra- sembly revoked South Africa’s mandate to gov- dition had some consistent concerns with re- ern South-West African territory and declared gards to geopolitical correlates of power in world that it was under direct UN administration. South politics, the identification of international core Africa refused to recognize this resolution and areas, and the relationships between naval and continued to administer the territory de facto. terrestrial capabilities (Oyvind 1988). On August 26, 1966, SWAPO guerilla forces Academically, the study of geopolitics in- launched an attack against the South African volves the analysis of geography, history and Defence Force at Omugulugwombashe. It was social science with reference to spatial politics the first armed battle in the Namibian struggle and patterns at various scales. It is multidisci- for independence. The war ended with the inde- plinary in its scope, and includes all aspects of pendence of Namibia on 21 March 1990 and elec- the social sciences with particular emphasis on tions which saw SWAPO win 55 of 72 seats in political geography, international relations, the the National Assembly of Namibia, enabling them territorial aspects of political science and inter- to form a national government (MTEF 2008; RoN national law. Also, the study of geopolitics in- 2008; AfDB 2009). cludes the study of the ensemble of relations It is a young country with a modernizing in- between the interests of international political frastructure. Namibia celebrated its 22nd indepen- actors, interests focused to an area, space, geo- dence day in 2012. The tertiary sector in Namib- graphical element or ways, relations which cre- ia contributes more than 50 per cent to GDP, ate a geopolitical system (Vladimir 2006). followed by primary and secondary industries. Mining and quarrying account for about 13 per Namibia Profile cent of GDP, compared with 6 per cent and 4 per cent for agriculture and fisheries, respectively Namibia is located in the south-west of Afri- (Rena 2010). Tourism is the third largest foreign ca bordering South Africa, Botswana, Zambia exchange earner after diamond and fish exports. and Angola. It covers 824,000 square kilome- Namibia has a highly developed banking sector tres, but accommodates a small population of with modern infrastructure, such as online bank- just 2 million people. Namibia is the driest coun- ing and cell-phone banking among others. The try in sub- Saharan Africa, with an annual aver- Bank of Namibia (BoN) is the central bank of age rainfall of about 100 millimetres in the south, Namibia and is responsible for functions per- 400 millimetres in the central regions and around formed by a central bank. There are four BoN 600 millimetres mm in the northeast. The only authorised commercial banks in Namibia: Bank perennial rivers form the borders with Angola Windhoek, First National Bank, Nedbank and and Zambia in the north and north-east, Botswa- Standard Bank (RoN 2001). na in the north-east and South Africa in the south. Namibia is linked to several African coun- All rivers within the country are ephemeral and tries. It is a member of the Common Monetary carry water during heavy rainfalls only. The Area, together with Lesotho, South Africa and Namib Desert – one of the oldest deserts on Swaziland, and the Namibian dollar is pegged to earth – stretches about 80 kilometres inland from the South African rand on a one-to-one basis. the coast, while Namibia’s eastern parts are char- The countries have their own central banks and acterized by the Kalahari Desert (RoN1990; NE- monetary policies, as reflected in differing inter- PRU 1999; Kössler and Melber 2001). est rates. However, Namibia’s economy is close- It is a country with a turbulent past. The ly linked to the South African economy due to Namibian War of Independence, which lasted South African subsidiaries being involved in from 1966 to 1988, was a guerrilla war, which the Namibian sectors such as wholesale, retail and 206 RAVINDER RENA financial. In addition, Namibia sources about 80 the fastest growing areas of economic develop- per cent of imports from or through South Afri- ment in Namibia is the growth of wildlife conser- ca, while about 30 percent of exports are des- vancies. These conservancies are particularly tined for South Africa. Namibia is thus exposed important to the rural generally unemployed to imported inflation from South Africa (Rena population. For example, an aquifer called 2010). “Ohangwena II” has been discovered, capable The country has a high unemployment rate. of supplying the 800,000 people in the North for “Strict unemployment” (people actively seek- 400 years (McGrath 2012). Experts estimate that ing a full-time job) stood at 20.2% in 2000, 21.9% Namibia has 7720 km3 of underground water). in 2004 and spiraled to 29.4% in 2008. Under a Culturally, the country is diverse. The major- broader definition (including people that have ity of the Namibian population is of Bantu-speak- given up searching for employment) unemploy- ing origin – mostly of the Ovambo ethnicity, ment rose from 36.7% in 2004 to 51.2% in 2008 which forms about half of the population. They (RoN 2010). This estimate considers people in reside mainly in the north of the country, al- the informal economy as employed. Approxi- though many are now resident in towns through- mately half the population live below the inter- out Namibia. Other ethnic groups are the Herero national poverty line of USD1.25 a day. There and Himba people who speak a similar language. are a number of legislative measures in place to The Damara speak the same “click” language as alleviate poverty and unemployment. In 2004, a the Nama. In addition to the Bantu majority, there labour act was passed to protect people from are large groups of Khoisan (such as Nama and job discrimination stemming from pregnancy and Bushmen), who are descendants of the original HIV/AIDS status (CIA 2009; UNAIDS 2010; Rena inhabitants of Southern Africa. The country also 2010). contains some descendants of refugees from Agriculture and incidence of poverty are Angola. There are also two smaller groups of linked. Although agriculture contributes only people with mixed racial origins, called “Co- about 6 per cent to GDP, it is an important sector loureds” and “Basters”3, who together make up in terms of employment opportunities. About 6.6% (with the Coloureds outnumbering the half of the population depends on agriculture Basters two to one). There is a large Chinese for its livelihood, but Namibia must still import minority in Namibia (RoN 1990; Kössler and more than 50 per cent of its food and 80 per cent of consumer goods particularly from South Afri- Melber 2001; Malia 2008). ca (Werner 2001; Rena 2010). Although per cap- ita GDP is five times the per capita GDP of Afri- Foreign Presence is Significant ca’s poorest countries, the majority of Namib- ia’s people live in rural areas and exist on a sub- Whites of Portuguese, Dutch, German, Brit- sistence way of life. Namibia has the highest ish and French ancestry make up about 6.4% of rates of income inequality in the world (Gini co- the population; they form the second-largest efficient rate 70.7), due in part to the fact that population of European ancestry, both in terms there is an urban economy and a rural cash-less of percentage and actual numbers, in Sub-Sa- economy (CIA 2009). About 4,000, mostly white, haran Africa after South Africa (CIA 2009). Most commercial farmers own almost half of Namib- Namibian whites and nearly all those of mixed ia’s arable land. The governments of Germany race speak Afrikaans and share similar origins, and Britain intend to finance Namibia’s land re- culture, and religion as the white and coloured form process, as Namibia plans to start expropri- populations of South Africa. A smaller propor- ating land from white farmers to resettle land- tion of Whites (around 30,000) traces their fam- less Black Namibians in the near future. ily origins directly back to German colonial set- The economy is undergoing transformation. tlers and maintain German cultural and educa- Agreement has been reached on the privatisa- tional institutions in the country. Nearly all Por- tion of several more enterprises in coming years, tuguese settlers came to the country from the with hopes that this will stimulate much needed former Portuguese colony of Angola (The Econ- foreign direct investment. However, reinvest- omist 1975). The 1960 census reported 526,004 ment of environmentally derived capital has hob- persons in the South West Africa, including bled Namibian per capita income $ 5,828. One of 73,464 Whites (14 per cent) (Singh 1980). THE GEOPOLITICAL ENVIRONMENT IN NAMIBIA 207
Namibia is a country in transition. Namibia is ia is elected to a five-year term and is both the classified as ‘upper middle income’ country, with head of state and the head of government. a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of Namibia is divided into 13 regions and subdi- over $ 5,800. Namibia shares many developmen- vided into 107 constituencies. The administra- tal challenges with countries in the region: pov- tive division of Namibia is tabled by Delimita- erty; natural disasters such as floods and tion Commissions and accepted or declined by drought; the HIV/AIDS epidemic; concerns for the National Assembly. Since state foundation, quality education; and exposure to globaliza- three Delimitation Commissions have been tion, as well as rising food and fuel prices. Its formed. Regional councillors are directly elect- unemployment rate is 22 per cent and poverty ed through secret ballots (regional elections) by rate is 28 per cent. the inhabitants of their constituencies. The Con- Socio-political challenges exist. Since its in- stitution of Namibia guarantees the separation dependence, the Namibian government has im- of powers (RoN1990). plemented and maintained a liberal economic Since independence, Namibia has success- policy regime, emphasising incentives for invest- fully completed the transition from white minor- ments and a stable macroeconomic environment; ity apartheid rule to parliamentary democracy. it has also taken a rather cautious approach to Multiparty democracy was introduced and has the issue of redistribution of land, assets and been maintained, with local, regional and national capital. Namibia has maintained political stabili- elections held regularly. Several registered po- ty and succeeded in reducing its levels of infla- litical parties are active and represented in the tion, with the result that the country has be- National Assembly, although Swapo Party has come integrated in the world economy and for- won every election since independence. The eign investments and tourism have expanded. transition from the 15-year rule of President Sam At the same time, the public sector has expand- Nujoma to his successor, Hifikepunye Pohamba ed rapidly since independence and a large share in 2005 went smoothly and he was re-elected for of public expenditures has been redirected to the second term in 2010. primary health care and education. Namibia has Namibian government has promoted a poli- a large public sector, and tax revenues finance cy of national reconciliation and issued an am- the central government as well as regional and nesty for those who had fought on either side local governments (MTEF 2008; RoN 2008; AfDB during the liberation war. The civil war in Ango- 2009). The central government employs 80,000 la had a limited impact on Namibians living in people, or around 5 per cent of the population. It the north of the country. In 1998, Namibia De- has proved increasingly more difficult for the fence Force (NDF) troops were sent to the Dem- government to scale down public expenditures, ocratic Republic of the Congo as part of a South- as the growth-oriented policies have so far not ern African Development Community (SADC) yielded results in the form of substantial job cre- contingent. In August 1999, a secessionist at- ation.4 It may be argued that the government has tempt in the Northeastern Caprivi region was attempted to address economic inequalities on successfully quashed. the expenditure side of the budget, rather than on the revenue side (Rena 2010). Education and Health
Geopolitics in Namibia The educational system in Namibia is devel- oping. The country has compulsory free educa- The Namibian landscape consists generally tion for 10 years between the ages of 6 and 16. of five geographical areas, each with different Grades 1–7 are primary level, grades 8–12 sec- characteristics with regard to climate, soil, wa- ondary. In 1998, there were 400,325 Namibian ter, geology, physiography and vegetation with students in primary school and 115,237 students some variation and overlap between them: the in secondary schools. The pupil-teacher ratio in Central Plateau, the Namib Desert, the Great Es- 1999 was estimated at 32:1, with about 8% of the carpment, the Bushveld, and the Kalahari Desert. GDP being spent on education. Curriculum de- The politics of Namibia takes place in a velopment, educational research, and profession- framework of a presidential representative dem- al development of teachers is centrally organ- ocratic republic, whereby the president of Namib- ised by the National Institute for Educational 208 RAVINDER RENA
Development (NIED) in Okahandja. Most boasting numerous species sought after by in- schools in Namibia are state-run, but a few pri- ternational sport hunters (RoN 2001; Humavin- vate schools are also part of the country’s edu- du and Jonothan 2003). In addition, extreme cation system. There are four teacher training sports such as sand boarding and rough terrain colleges, three colleges of agriculture, a police driving have become popular. Several travel training college, a Polytechnic at university lev- companies provide tours The most visited plac- el, and a National University (World Bank 2005). es include the Caprivi Strip, Fish River Canyon, AIDS pose a serious health and productivi- Sossusvlei, the Skeleton Coast Park, Sesriem, ty problem. Life expectancy at birth is estimated Etosha Pan and the coastal towns of Swakop- to be 52.2 years in 2012 - among the lowest in the mund, Walvis Bay and Lüderitz. world. The AIDS epidemic is a large problem in Namibia is one of few countries in the world Namibia. Though its rate of infection is substan- to specifically address conservation and pro- tially lower than that of its Eastern neighbor, tection of natural resources in its constitution. Botswana, approximately 13.1% of the adult Article 95 states, “The State shall actively pro- population is infected with HIV. In 2001, there mote and maintain the welfare of the people by were an estimated 210,000 people living with HIV/ adopting international policies aimed at the fol- AIDS, and the estimated death toll in 2003 was lowing: maintenance of ecosystems, essential 16,000. According to the 2011 UNAIDS Report, ecological processes, and biological diversity the epidemic in Namibia “appears to be leveling of Namibia, and utilization of living natural re- off.” As the HIV/AIDS epidemic has reduced sources on a sustainable basis for the benefit of the working age population, the number of or- all Namibians, both present and future (RoN phans has increased. It falls to the government 1990).” to provide education, food, shelter and clothing In 1993, the newly formed government of for these orphans (UNAIDS 2011). Namibia received funding from the United States Other health concerns are emerging. The Agency for International Development (USAID) malaria problem seems to be compounded by through its Living in a Finite Environment (LIFE) the AIDS epidemic. Research has shown that in Project. The Ministry of Environment and Tour- Namibia the risk of contracting malaria is 14.5% ism with the financial support from organizations greater if a person is also infected with HIV. The such as USAID, Endangered Wildlife Trust, risk of death from malaria is also raised by ap- WWF, and Canadian Ambassador’s Fund, to- proximately 50% with a concurrent HIV infec- gether form a Community Based Natural Re- tion. Given infection rates this large, as well as a source Management (CBNRM) support struc- looming malaria problem, it may be very difficult ture. The main goal of this project is promote for the government to deal with both the medi- sustainable natural resource management by cal and economic impacts of this epidemic. The giving local communities rights to wildlife man- country had only 598 physicians in 2002 (UN- agement and tourism (CIA 2009). AIDS 2010). Key Challenges and Opportunities Tourism and Wildlife Poverty Tourism is a major contributor (14.5%) to Namibia’s GDP, creating tens of thousands of The government’s second progress report jobs (18.2% of all employment) directly or indi- on achieving the Millennium Development Goals rectly and servicing over a million tourists per (MDGs) was released in 2009. The gender-relat- annum (Hartman 2009). The country is among ed targets are on schedule but progress on health the prime destinations in Africa and is known is seriously lagging. As stated earlier that Namibia for ecotourism which features Namibia’s exten- has the highest economic disparity in the world. sive wildlife. In 2008 Namibia introduced the Cost of Basic There are many lodges and reserves to ac- Needs (CBN) approach to measure poverty. commodate eco-tourists. Sport Hunting is also Households were defined as poor and severely a large and growing component of the Namibian poor if adult consumption levels were below economy, accounting for 14% of total tourism in NAD 265.24 and NAD 184.56 respectively. Pov- the year 2000, or $ 19.6 million, with Namibia erty used to be defined by the food consump- THE GEOPOLITICAL ENVIRONMENT IN NAMIBIA 209 tion ratio: people who spent 60 per cent or more crimination are significant hindrances to wom- of total consumption on food were considered en’s empowerment. HIV/AIDS are a major ob- poor, while people who spent more than 80 per stacle to development in Namibia. An estimated cent on food were considered severely poor. 200 000 people – 60 percent of whom are women According to the food consumption ratio – are living with HIV. The HIV prevalence rate measures, the percentage of poor people has among pregnant women fell from 19.9 percent in declined from 38 per cent in 1994 to 28 per cent 2006 to 17.8 per cent in 2008 (UNAIDS 2010). in 2004, while the proportion of severely poor According to national sources, the infection people has gone down from 9 per cent to 4 per has reduced life expectancy significantly from cent. According to the CBN approach poverty 61 years in 1991 to 43 years in 2000 and left about stands at about 28 percent, while the proportion 66 000 children orphaned. The proportion of of severely poor households is 14 percent. Pov- advanced HIV sufferers with access to anti-ret- erty levels are highest among female-headed roviral treatment (ART) rose from 3 per cent in households in rural areas with one or more chil- 2003 to 66 per cent in 2006, increasing the num- dren. Child poverty in Namibia is rife. Approxi- ber of people living with HIV. In 2009, the na- mately one in five children under the age of five tional budget financed the treatment of 65 000 is severely malnourished. However, the number infected people. Although the child mortality rate of malnourished children has declined from about for children below the age of five had fallen over 28 per cent to 24 per cent. Namibia is unlikely to the past decade, HIV/AIDS might now change eradicate extreme poverty and hunger by 2015 this. Between 2000 and 2008, infant and child (MTEF 2008; RoN 2008; AfDB 2009). mortality rates have decreased from 37 to 34.4 and 62 to 50 respectively per 1,000 live births. Education and Gender Immunisation against preventable diseases has also improved. Eighty four per cent of one-year The Namibian government realized that edu- old children are immunised against measles while cation is corner stone of economic and social 70 per cent of children are immunised against all advancement (Rena and Kidane 2009). The gov- preventable diseases. Conversely, maternal mor- ernment invested 25 percent of its budget in 2008/ tality has increased from 271 in 2000 to 449 in 09 on education, which is considered a priority. 2006 per 100 000 births. This is largely due to Primary enrolment rates and youth literacy rates HIV/AIDS and despite an increase in the num- remain at 83.8 percent and 92.7 percent respec- ber of medical staff during births. Since Namibia tively. The level of education among learners is a large and sparsely populated country, dis- and teachers was considerably lower than in tance and very few rural medical staff prevent neighbouring countries. Dropout and repetition people from receiving medical care in time. rates are high. 94 per cent of pupils make it to Achieving the MDGs for child mortality and fifth grade while 81 percent reach eighth grade. maternal health by 2015 remains a challenge Regional disparities in survival and literacy rates (MTEF 2008; RoN 2008; AfDB 2009; Rena 2010; as well as school facilities are huge. Namibia has UNAIDS 2010). made some progress towards achieving univer- Tuberculosis (TB) cases decreased from 822 sal primary education. About 87.4 percent of fe- per 100,000 in 2004 to 205 in 2007. Simultaneous- males are literate as opposed to 88.6 per cent of ly the success rate of TB treatments rose from males. In primary education, there are 98 females 70 percent to 76 percent. Malaria incidences fell per 100 males, in secondary education there are from 238 in 2000 to 48 per 100,000 in 2007. In 117 females per 100 males, while in tertiary edu- Namibia, malaria is a seasonal infection, which cation there are 88 females per 100 males. School mainly affects the northern parts of the country children continue to perform poorly and drop where roughly 60 percent of the population lives. out and repetition rates remain high. Although Unemployment remains high at 21.9 per cent the number of people infected with HIV has while there is a shortage of skilled labour. Most dropped slightly from 19.9 percent to 17.8 per unemployed people have only completed sec- cent and treatment is improving, it remains a ondary education. The labour market mismatch major concern. Nonetheless, women are under- is also manifested in large wage differentials represented in professional jobs and in higher – between skilled and unskilled workers (RoN level positions. Gender-based violence and dis- 2010). 210 RAVINDER RENA
The 2008/09 Global Competitiveness Report food assistance. Furthermore, the government identified that restrictive labour regulations, poor is controlling the import of staple food and hor- work ethics, and a lack of skills had prevented ticultural products in order to increase food se- competitiveness in Namibia. Furthermore, the curity and exploit Namibia’s agricultural produc- capital intensity of the growing mining sector tion potential. and a decline in agricultural labour contributed The Namibian Constitution allows foreign- to unemployment. The new labour act prohibits ers to own businesses in Namibia, Part VI of the temporary employment agencies and transient Agricultural (Commercial) Land Reform Act, 1995 workers. (No. 6 of 1995) places heavy restrictions on for- In Namibia, food prices rose in May 2008 by eign ownership of commercial farmland. How- 16.5 per cent compared to prices in May 2007, ever, foreigners can buy commercial farmland in and by 40 per cent compared to May 2005. The Namibia, this would add to demand and push driving forces of the current price spike of sta- land prices up (Sherbourne 2000). ple and other food products can largely be found in the regional and global context. However, food Water Problem prices in Namibia increased less than in other countries due to a conservative pricing agree- For Namibia’s capital city, the goal of sus- ment between producers and millers. Roughly tainable water and sanitation is a major chal- 1.5 million of Namibia’s total population of about lenge for the 21st century. Windhoek had just 2 million depend on subsistence farming for their 140,000 inhabitants at independence in 1990. In household food security (Werner 2001; Rena 20 years, the population has more than doubled 2010). While they are vulnerable to changing to 300,000 people, according to the city govern- climate conditions the other part of the popula- ment, with between 20 and 30 percent living in tion, especially poor urban dwellers, are more informal settlements. These unplanned areas vulnerable to food price increases. As a member have grown at a rate of 9.4 percent each year, of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), making the provision of water and sanitation a Namibia has surrendered its sovereignty over serious challenge (Munetsi 2011). trade policy to a large extent to SACU. Namibia As discussed in this paper that Namibia’s is also a member of the Southern African Devel- geopolitical environment is complex and has opment Community (SADC) Free Trade Agree- been facing numerous challenges. Nonetheless, ment. Namibia has initialled an Interim Econom- it has potential opportunities for business de- ic Partnership Agreement that allows duty-free velopment. For example, the tertiary sector con- and quota-free access to the European Union tributes more than 50 percent to GDP, followed (EU) market. Namibia is a founding member of by primary and secondary industries. Mining the World Trade Organization (WTO) and has and quarrying account for about 13 percent of been declared a net food importing developing GDP, compared with 6 percent and 4 percent for country (NFIDC), a designation that will pro- agriculture and fisheries, respectively. As dis- vide Namibia with more policy space in order to cussed earlier that the tourism is the third larg- increase national food production (Kameri 2000; est foreign exchange earner after diamond and The AfDB/OECD 2009). fish exports. Although agriculture contributes The agricultural sector’s performance is only about 6 percent to GDP, it is an important strongly dependent on weather conditions; sector in terms of employment opportunities. hence food self-sufficiency varies between 35 Furthermore, agriculture provides the inputs for percent and 75 percent of total demand. The the manufacturing sector, in particular meat and government has implemented and continues to food processing, hence adding further to em- implement a set of measures to counteract the ployment creation. The annual national budget effects of climate change and rising food prices allocates on average 7 percent to agriculture and on the national food security situation of Namib- agricultural development. This is below the 10 ia. Some of these are the usage of natural water percent agreed in the Dar es Salaam Declaration courses for irrigation farming, the construction of the SADC Heads of State. Nevertheless, agri- of national storage capacity for staple grains, culture and agricultural development comprise increased long-term production through title one of the key policies of the Government of deeds and targeted extensions, and targeted Namibia. Namibia’s economic policy is based on THE GEOPOLITICAL ENVIRONMENT IN NAMIBIA 211 the long-term Vision 2030, implemented through Southern African region? This in other hand medium-term National Development Plans (De provides a potential to the global community Villiers 2003; RoN 2008). The Third National De- that can invest enormously in the business de- velopment Plan covers the period 2007–12, and velopment. aims, among other things, to enhance agricul- To put the find in perspective, it is estimated tural production both at the household and na- to hold 11 billion barrels, which is nearly equal tional levels in order to increase food security to that of Angola’s reserves of 13 billion barrels and create employment opportunities (Sher- of oil, according to the weekly Namibian Econ- bourne 2000). One of the main goals is to utilize omist. Angola recently surpassed Nigeria as the soil in an optimal and sustainable manner in Africa’s top producer of oil and is expected to order to enhance crop and horticulture produc- surpass even Kuwait’s oil production in the near tion. future. It would make Namibia Africa’s 5th larg- Another goal is to promote sustainable live- est producer of oil after Libya, Nigeria, Algeria, stock production through the optimal and sus- and Angola. tainable utilization of rangeland. It is the nation- Paradoxically, in most cases, production of al objective to achieve national food security, oil has brought little benefit to ordinary Afri- not food self-sufficiency. Therefore, government cans. Economists call this the “resource curse” has embarked on initiatives to increase food se- - economies becoming over reliant on an extrac- curity, such as the construction of silos in the tive commodity such as oil. In such an economy communal areas and the finalization of the Green exchange rates tend to appreciate which in turn Scheme Policy and land reform, which are im- makes imports cheaper to the point where it un- proving crop and horticultural production in the dermines local production and industrial devel- country (Werener 2001; Rena 2010). opment. In Angola for example oil production Further, in terms of access to food, after two accounts for about 85 per cent of its GDP, 90 per major international price spikes in 2007-08 and cent of its export revenue, and nearly two thirds 2010-11, populations in nearly 60 developing of government revenue. countries are paying 80 per cent more, on aver- The biggest winner from this oil discovery age, for local foodstuffs in 2012 compared to would be Namibia. If correctly managed, the pre-crisis price levels. This also had a dramatic country will have the opportunity to make large impact on Namibia. In line with this there is a investments into health, education, and social potential to develop the renewable energy base welfare. Regionally, South Africa stands to ben- in the country. efit the most. By importing oil directly from Namibia, South Africa could limit the impact of Oil and Natural Gas in Namibia price fluctuations on the international oil mar- ket, and could in theory become more indepen- As stated earlier, Namibia has firm macro- dent from organizations such as OPEC. This economic policies, efficient political structures, would however entail South Africa and Namibia growing financial institutions, and its corrup- undertaking bi-lateral agreements with one an- tion index is also much better if put in compari- other concerning the issue. son with other African countries. Namibia’s cur- South Africa is also the regions refining pow- rency is also directly linked to the South African erhouse. South Africa has close to 80 per cent of Rand and is therefore not as much affected by refining capacity within Southern Africa and has currency fluctuations. Recently the Namibian provided the majority of refined products for Mines and Energy Minister, Isak Katali, an- Namibia for years now. Recently, according to nounced the discovery of vast oil reserves off research and consultancy firm Frost & Sullivan, the Southern Namibian coast. This discovery Namibia decreased its reliance on South Africa has created huge expectations in Namibia, and for a 100 per cent of their refined product to 50 many hope that the revenue collected from oil percent in order to ensure that it’s not depen- production would relieve poverty and jump start dant on only one country for its petroleum prod- the development in the country. The question ucts. Namibia still doesn’t have the technical that needs to be asked is whether Namibia has knowledge to do their refining on their own how- the capacity to properly manage this and wheth- ever and South African companies could still er this oil base will have any advantages for the take advantage in refining Namibian oil. 212 RAVINDER RENA
The issue does have some security implica- malnutrition, HIV/AIDs worsening health out- tions for the region as well. Namibian oil discov- comes, lower school attendance, higher rates of eries would have to be protected, and Namibia child labour and domestic violence, rising vul- does not have any efficient naval or maritime nerability to future shocks and widespread so- policing capability to do so. Currently South cial unrest which may attract some international Africa is the only credible naval power in the NGOs to ameliorate the current socio-economic region and it could be expected that Namibia situation of the vulnerable communities in the would ask South Africa for some assistance in country. this regard until Namibia builds up its own mar- However, this current situation of Namibia itime capabilities. may also present an opportunity to rethink Extra care would also have to be taken by Namibia’s socio-economic policies for develop- Namibian authorities to ensure environmental ment. This requires shedding the myopic scope protection. Any form of pollution or maritime of macroeconomic and fiscal policy decisions of disaster so close to the South African border the past and, instead, basing them on their po- would not only impact Namibia negatively but tential to achieve food security, full employment, would surely have an impact on South Africa as human development, and inclusive and sustain- well. Namibia does however maintain an excel- able growth. lent environmental record to ensure the protec- In line with this, Namibian government may tion of its own tourism industry. consider in adopting and implementing the six The Namibian government would have to broader development principles, which are sup- ensure that proper controls are in place before ported by policy statements of the United Na- the start of oil production by 2016. If the pro- tions. These include: re-allocating public expen- cess is not properly managed Namibia could ditures; increasing tax revenues; lobbying for suffer the same oil induced tragedies that other increased aid and transfers; tapping into fiscal African countries have experienced in the past and foreign exchange reserves; borrowing and such as severe income inequalities, entrenched restructuring existing debt; and/or adopting a poverty, and environmental degradation.5 more accommodative macroeconomic framework. To do so, social and economic investments Labour Market and Investment must be prioritized within a flexible, longer-term framework, recognizing that there are a variety Regarding labour markets across Namibia, of financing options available to bolster these they are characterized by fewer, lower-paying much needed investments in Namibia in the con- jobs and proliferating the incidence of working text of the changing geopolitical climate of the poverty that had already trapped nearly half of world. the population/ productive labourers currently unable to find a job. Further, rampant youth un- CONCLUSION employment coupled with a quickly expanding supply of young labourers—more than one mil- This article discusses the geopolitical envi- lion are expected to enter the Namibia’s labour ronment in Namibia and provides a comprehen- market between 2012 and 2020—are only add- sive picture of the country’s, economy, polity, ing to on-going labour market woes in the coun- education and health situation in the country. It try. Government of Namibia is also pursuing busi- also highlights the environment and migration ness development strategies that could lead to issues in general and how that affect a develop- heightened infrastructure development and ing country like Namibia. It further argues that which would eventually support the expansion action is required by a broad group of policy of economic activities that could provide an im- makers, and not just those concerned with the petus for the investors to invest substantially in environment or migration. Typically ‘migration’ the business sector. policy in Namibia falls within the remit of Minis- Importantly the simultaneous effects of in- try of Home Affairs, which is responsible for flation, low income base and service delivery ‘managing’ international flows of people, while shocks have potentially severe and irreversible environment and climate change is the remit of consequences, especially the rural and urban Ministry of Environment and Tourism in Namib- poor. Among these include increased hunger and ia. Besides, on this issue, the Ministry of Agri- THE GEOPOLITICAL ENVIRONMENT IN NAMIBIA 213 culture, Water and Rural Development is also Hartman A 2009. Tourism in Good Shape – Minister. one the important stakeholders to consult with. The Namibian. From
The Economist 1975. Flight from Angola. 16 August, 2009. From