Climatic Niche Shifts Between Species Native and Naturalized Ranges Raise
Global Ecology and Biogeography, (Global Ecol. Biogeogr.) (2014) 23, 1356–1365 bs_bs_banner RESEARCH Climatic niche shifts between species’ PAPER native and naturalized ranges raise concern for ecological forecasts during invasions and climate change Regan Early1,2,3*andDovF.Sax4 1Centre for Ecology and Conservation, ABSTRACT University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus, Aim Correlative models that forecast extinction risk from climate change and Penryn TR10 9EZ, UK, 2Cátedra Rui Nabeiro – Biodiversidade, Universidade de Évora, Casa invasion risks following species introductions, depend on the assumption that Cordovil 2a Andar, Rua Dr. Joaquim Henrique species’ current distributions reflect their climate tolerances (‘climatic equilib- da Fonseca, 7000-890 Évora, Portugal, rium’). This assumption has rarely been tested with independent distribution data, 3Departamento de Biodiversidad y Biología and studies that have done so have focused on species that are widespread or weedy Evolutiva, Museo Nacional de Ciencias in their native range. We use independent data to test climatic equilibrium for a Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones broadly representative group of species, and ask whether there are any general Científicas (CSIC), Calle José Gutierrez indicators that can be used to identify when equilibrium occurs. Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain, 4Department Location Europe and contiguous USA. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA Methods We contrasted the climate conditions occupied by 51 plant species in their native (European) and naturalized (USA) distributions by applying kernel smoothers to species’ occurrence densities. We asked whether species had natural- ized in climate conditions that differ from their native ranges, suggesting climatic disequilibrium in the native range, and whether characteristics of species’ native distributions correspond with climatic equilibrium.
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