Japanese Candlesticks Historical Overview
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JAPANESE CANDLESTICKS HISTORICAL OVERVIEW Candlesticks have been around a lot longer than anything similar in the Western world. The Japanese were looking at charts as far back as the 17th century, whereas the earliest known charts in the US appeared in the late 19th century. Rice trading had been established in Japan in 1654, with gold and silver following soon after. Rice markets dominated Japan at this time and the commodity became, it seems, more important than hard currency. Munehisa Homma (aka Sokyu Honma), a Japanese rice trader born in the early 1700s, is widely credited as being one of the early exponents of tracking price action. He understood basic supply and demand dynamics, but also identified the fact that emotion played a part in the setting of price. He wanted to track the emotion of the market players, and this work became the basis of candlestick analysis. The Japanese did an extremely good job of keeping candlesticks quiet from the Western world, right up until the 1980s, when suddenly there was a large cross-pollination of banks and financial institutions around the world. This is when Westerners suddenly got wind of these mystical charts. Obviously, this was also about the time that charting in general suddenly became a lot easier, due to the widespread use of the PC. In the late 1980s several Western analysts became interested in candlesticks. In the UK Michael Feeny, began using candlesticks in his daily work, and started introducing the ideas to London professionals. In the December 1989 edition of Futures magazine Steve Nison, who was a technical analyst at Merrill Lynch in New York, produced a paper that showed a series of candlestick reversal patterns and explained their predictive powers. He went on to write a book on the subject. Since then candlesticks have gained in popularity by the year, and these days they seem to be the standard template that most analysts work from. WHY CANDLESTICKS ARE IMPORTANT TO YOUR TRADING ANALYSIS? Candlesticks are considered a visual representation of what is going on in the market. By looking at candlesticks, we get valuable information about the open, high, low and close of price, which gives us an idea about price action and movement. Candlesticks can be used alone or in conjunction with technical analysis tools such as moving averages. They can be used with methods such as the Dow theory or the Eliot wave theory. Human behavior in relation to money is always dominated by fear, greed and hope (amongst other emotions). Candlestick analysis helps us understand these changing psychological factors by showing us how buyers and sellers interact with each other. Candlesticks are used by most professional traders, banks and hedge funds – these guys trade millions of dollars every day and can move the market whenever they want. Your money can be lost easily if you don’t understand the game. Using candlestick patterns will help you understand what the big boys are doing and will show you when to enter, when to exit and when to stay away from the market. WHAT IS A CANDLESTICK? Japanese candlesticks can be used on any timeframe. They are used to describe the price action during the given timeframe. Japanese candlesticks are formed using the open, high, low and close of the chose timeframe. If the close is above the open, we say that the candlestick is bullish – this means that the market is rising in this period. If the close is below the open, we say that the candlestick is bearish – this means that the market is falling in this period. The filled part of the candlestick is called the real body. The thin line poking above and below the body are called shadows or wicks. The top of the upper wick is the high. The bottom of the lower wick is the low. CANDLESTICK ANATOMY Candlesticks have different body sizes. Long bodies refer to strong buying or selling pressure. If there is a candlestick in which the close is above the open with a long body, this indicates that prices increased considerably from open to close and buyers were aggressive. Conversely, if there is a bearish candlestick in which the open is above the close with a long body, this indicates that prices fell a great deal from the open and sellers were aggressive. Short and small bodies indicate a little buying or selling activity. (In forex lingo, Bulls mean buyers and Bears mean sellers) CANDLESTICK SHADOWS/WICKS The upper and lower wicks give us important information about the trading session. Upper wicks signify the session high. Lower wicks signify the session low. Candlesticks with long wicks show that the trading action occurred well past the open and close. Japanese candlesticks with short wicks indicate that most of the trading action was confined near the open and close. If a candlestick has a longer upper wick and short lower wick, it means that buyers bid price higher. For some reason, sellers came in and drove price back down to end the session back near its open price. If a candlestick has a long lower wick and short upper wick, it means that sellers forced price lower. For some reason, buyers came in and drove prices back up to end the session back near its open price. BASIC CANDLESTICK PATTERNS Candlestick patterns are one of the most powerful trading concepts – they’re easily identifiable and prove for very profitable setups. A research has confirmed that candlestick patterns have a high predictive value and produce positive results. This is NOT a ‘holy grail’ to a trading system! This system does work in conjunction with other technical analysis – BUT, remember not all trades will be won. That is part of the trading game. There is NO 100% fool-proof winning system. Candlestick patterns are the language of the market. If you know how to read candlestick patterns the right way, you will be able to understand what these patterns tell you about market dynamics and the trader’s behavior. This skill will help you better enter and exit the market at the right time – we look for a high probability setup. Reading further on, take note to focus on the anatomy of the pattern and the psychology behind its formation. This will help you acquire the skill of identifying any pattern you find in the market and understand what it tells you to do next. SPINNING TOPS Japanese candlesticks with a long upper wick, long lower wick and small real bodies are called spinning tops. The pattern indicates the indecision between the buyers and sellers. The small real body shows little movement from open to close and the wicks indicate that both buyers and sellers were fighting, but neither gained the upper hand. If a spinning top forms during an uptrend, this usually means there aren’t many buyers left and a possible reversal in direction could occur. If a spinning top forms during a downtrend, this usually means there are not many sellers left and a possible reversal in direction could occur. MARUBOZU Marubozu means there are no wicks from the bodies. The high and low are the same as its open or close. A bullish (white candle above) marubozu is when the open price equals the low price and the close price equals the high price. This is a very bullish candle as it shows that buyers were in control the entire session. It usually becomes the first part of a bullish continuation or a bullish reversal pattern. A bearish (black candle above) marubozu is when the open price equals the high price and the close price equals the low. This is a very bearish candle as it shows that sellers controlled the price action for the entire session. It usually implies bearish continuation or bearish reversal. DOJI When a doji candlestick forms, it tells us that the market opens and closes at the same price. Their bodies are extremely short – appears as a thin line. This indicates indecision between buyers and sellers; there is no one in control of the market. Prices move above and below the open price during the session, buy close at or very near the open price The length of the upper and lower wicks can vary and the resulting candlestick may look like a cross, inverted cross or plus sign. There are four special types of doji candlesticks: Dragonfly Doji: The dragonfly doji is a bullish candlestick pattern which is formed when the open high and close are the same or about the same price. The long lower tail shows the resistance of buyers and their attempt to push the market up. Gravestone Doji: The gravestone doji is the bearish version of the dragonfly doji. It is formed when the open and close are the same or about the same price. The formation of the long upper tail is an indication that the market is testing a powerful supply or resistance area. This pattern indicates that while buyers were able to push prices well above the open, later, the sellers overwhelmed the market by pushing the price back down. This is interpreted as a sign that the bulls are losing their momentum and the market is ready for a reversal. NOTE: You will need additional information about the placement and context of the gravestone doji to interpret the signal effectively. When a Doji forms on your chart, pay special attention to the preceding candlesticks. If a doji forms after a series of bullish, the doji signals that the buyers are becoming exhausted and weakening. In order for price to continue rising, more buyers are needed but there aren’t anymore! Sellers are looking to come in and drive the price back down.