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Downloaded 10/07/21 10:08 AM UTC 3714 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 136 Impact of TMI SST on the Simulation of a Heavy Rainfall Episode over Mumbai on 26 July 2005 S. K. DEB,C.M.KISHTAWAL,P.K.PAL, AND P. C. JOSHI Atmospheric Sciences Division, Meteorology and Oceanography Group, Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad, India (Manuscript received 22 June 2007, in final form 25 February 2008) ABSTRACT In this study the simulation of a severe rainfall episode over Mumbai on 26 July 2005 has been attempted with two different mesoscale models. The numerical models used in this study are the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) developed originally by Colorado State University and the Advanced Research Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW) Model, version 2.0.1, developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The simulations carried out in this study use the Grell–Devenyi Ensemble cumulus parameterization scheme. Apart from using climatological sea surface temperature (SST) for the control simulations, the impact of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Micro- wave Imager (TMI) SST on the simulation of rainfall is evaluated using these two models. The perfor- mances of the models are compared by examining the predicted parameters like upper- and lower-level circulations, moisture, temperature, and rainfall. The strength of convective instability is also derived by calculating the convective available potential energy. The intensity of maximum rainfall around Mumbai is significantly improved with TMI SST as the surface boundary condition in both the models. The large-scale circulation features, moisture, and temperature are compared with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction analyses. The rainfall prediction is assessed quantitatively by comparing the simulated rainfall with the rainfall from TRMM products and the observed station values reported in Indian Daily Weather Reports from the India Meteorological Department. 1. Introduction On that day within a span of a few hours, northern Mumbai received unprecedented rainfall, with Santa Severe weather systems generally occur with strong Cruz recording 94.4 cm of rainfall for the day and more gust winds and heavy precipitation. The numerical pre- heavy rainfall of 104.9 cm at Vihar Lake located around diction of such events remains one of the most chal- 15 km northeast of Santa Cruz. Bhandup located south- lenging problems in the field of meteorology. Most of east of Vihar Lake received 81.5 cm of rainfall. Colaba the global models generally underestimate the total in southern Mumbai, on the other hand, received only rainfall of any heavy precipitating event and commit 7 cm. This event disrupted life, besides causing heavy errors in the timing and location of the event. For better damage to property and human life. Prior knowledge of prediction of flash floods it is necessary to understand such an extreme event by a day or a few hours could the dynamics and physics of isolated heavy precipita- have minimized the loss of life. Although some diag- tion and other dynamical features associated with thun- nostic studies of this extreme rainfall event (Jenamani derstorms, tornados, and so on. Heavy rainfall occurs et al. 2006; Shyamala and Bhadram 2006) and some frequently around Mumbai during the summer mon- modeling efforts (Bohra et al. 2006; Chang et al. 2007, soon season. However, the rainfall over the northern manuscript submitted to Global Planet. Change; Vaidya parts of Mumbai on 26 July 2005 was extremely heavy. and Kulkarni 2007) specifically for this event have been reported in a hindcast mode, none of the opera- tional models had given an accurate real-time predic- Corresponding author address: Dr. S. K. Deb, Atmospheric tion. Sciences Division, Meteorology and Oceanography Group, Space Applications Centre, Indian Space Research Organization With the advancement in numerical techniques for (ISRO), Ahmedabad 380015, India. the assimilation of satellite-based observations, signifi- E-mail: [email protected] cant improvements have occurred in the accuracy and DOI: 10.1175/2008MWR2291.1 © 2008 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/07/21 10:08 AM UTC MWR2291 OCTOBER 2008 DEBETAL. 3715 the reliability of numerical weather prediction. How- ever, considerable effort is still needed to allow the prediction of extreme weather events like the Orissa Supercyclone (29 October 1999) or the extreme rainfall event of 26 July 2005 over Mumbai. Though some of the state-of-the-art nonhydrostatic and compressible mesoscale models like the fifth-generation Pennsylva- nia State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) have been success- fully used for the simulation of extreme events like tropical cyclones (Mandal et al. 2004; Singh et al. 2005), this model was not very successful at the prediction of the Mumbai rainfall event even in a hindcast mode. Though Kershaw (1988) has shown the beneficial ef- fect of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, as ob- tained from satellite sources on a prediction of the on- set of the southwest monsoon over India, the relation between SST and tropical heavy rainfall events has not been studied in adequate detail. Rautenbach (1998) studied the relationship of SST and the frequency of extreme rainfall events over South Africa and found that a warm SST region that had developed over the southeast Atlantic Ocean gave rise to the extreme high FIG. 1. A map of India showing important landmarks referred rainfall over there. Meneguzzo et al. (2004) analyzed to in the paper. the sensitivity of the meteorological high-resolution nu- merical simulation of the extreme flood of the Arno cal Indian region. The WRF Model has been used for River basin, Italy, to different representations of SST the simulation of thunderstorms at Machilipatnam over and showed that observed SST had a clear positive im- the east coast of India, for a case of cyclonic circulation pact on simulations in the Regional Atmospheric Mod- over Kerala, India (Vaidya 2007), and for the predic- eling System (RAMS) as compared to climatological tion of warm season rainfall forecasts over the central SST. Lebeaupin et al. (2006) have also shown the sen- United States (Gallus and Bresch 2006). sitivity of torrential rain events over the western Medi- The present study is organized in the following man- terranean region to SST. They found, using a very high- ner: section 2 describes the characteristic features re- resolution Méso-NH research model, that an increase lated to Mumbai rainfall; brief descriptions of the (decrease) of SST by several degrees, on average, in- models, data, and experiments conducted are given in tensifies (weakens) the convection and the convection section 3; and section 4 describes the results and dis- could even be stopped with a large decrease of SST. cussion. Conclusions are given in section 5. The potential effect of satellite-derived SST on meso- scale convection and heavy rainfall simulation is rela- tively unexplored in the tropical region, although some 2. Characteristic of Mumbai rain studies have reported the use of microwave satellite a. Synoptic features of active monsoon measurements for the prediction of intensity of tropical cyclones (Kidder et al. 2000; Wentz et al. 2000). The Generally, during the active phase of the southwest purpose of the present study is to examine the impact of monsoon in July and August, the regions to the wind- SST derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mis- ward side of the Western Ghats (a north–south moun- sion (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) on the simu- tain range in the western zone of India), like Konkan lation of the severe rainfall event of 26 July 2005 over and Goa (including Mumbai), and coastal Karnataka Mumbai, using the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric (Fig. 1) get heavy rainfall because of the orographic Modeling System (BRAMS) and the Advanced Re- effect (Rao 1976). The strong westerly moist wind from search Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW) mod- the Arabian Sea hits the hills of the Western Ghats and eling system. However, these limited experiments with is lifted vertically upward during the active monsoon these two different models definitely give some clues and causes very heavy rainfall there. During this period about the performance of NWP models over the tropi- the strong westerly/southwesterly flow over the Ara- Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/07/21 10:08 AM UTC 3716 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 136 bian Sea also leads to the formation of an offshore (1965) has shown that during large variations in rainfall trough over the sea off the west coast, causing very over Mumbai, the westerly winds are on the order of heavy rainfall activity along the west coast of India, 15–20 m sϪ1 with depth of 3 km. In the present case, the including over Mumbai (George 1956). This westerly/ 3-hourly surface chart has also shown the pressure gra- southwesterly flow is also strengthened when the Ara- dient of 4–6 hPa along the west coast between 15° and bian Sea branch of the monsoon is active or when a 20°N from 0000 to 1200 UTC 26 July (Jenamani et al. depression/low pressure area forms over the north Bay 2006); westerly winds were also on the order of 15–25 of Bengal and moves into central India. Because of the msϪ1 with depth of 5.8 km. Thus the synoptic-scale presence of a midtropospheric cyclone (MTC), the Gu- features were highly favorable for the occurrence of jarat-Konkan coast also experiences very heavy rainfall heavy rainfall, but the localized nature of the event and of up to 40 cm dayϪ1. During the onset phase of the its strong intensity could not be anticipated. southwest monsoon, heavy rainfall of more than 20 cm On this day Santa Cruz recorded 94.4 cm of rainfall; dayϪ1 is quite common at Mumbai. Generally it is however, even higher rainfall of 104.9 cm was recorded caused by a convergence of the dry winds from the at Vihar Lake (Jenamani et al.
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