PLACEMENT BROCHURE
2015-2016
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS 270 BAY STATE ROAD BOSTON, MA 02215 USA
http://www.bu.edu/econ
PhD Placement Director: Randall P. Ellis Professor of Economics E-mail: [email protected] Phone: 617-353-2741
PhD Administrator: Andrew Campolieto E-mail: [email protected] Phone: 617-353-4454
Boston University College of Arts & Sciences Randall P. Ellis Department of Economics Professor
270 Bay State Road Boston, Massachusetts 02215 [email protected] T 617-353-2741 F 617-353-4449 http://blogs.bu.edu/ellisrp/
2016 PhD Candidates Boston University Department of Economics
October 2015
Dear colleague:
Attached please find the CVs and abstracts of the nineteen Ph.D. students on the job market from the Boston University Department of Economics. This is a strong cohort, and I encourage you to consider them carefully for any job openings that you may have.
As you may be aware, our department has grown significantly in quality and stature and is now one of the top-rated economics departments in North America and the world. This change in quality has been mirrored in the quality of our graduate students. In the last five years, our doctoral candidates have taken tenure-track jobs at Brown, Harvard Business School, London School of Economics, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Warwick, National University of Singapore, Yale- National University of Singapore, University of Texas – Dallas, Tufts, UNSW, Renmin, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Penn State, Missouri, Wayne State, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Michigan State, Indiana, University of Kent, New College, and other fine universities and colleges. Our students have also found research positions at Harvard, The World Bank, IMF, and Federal Reserve; post-doc positions at Harvard, EUI, Minnesota, and Oxford; and jobs at many top consulting companies, research institutes, banks, and central banks.
Reflecting a continuing increase in the quality of our entering graduate students and our stringent standards for remaining in the Ph.D. program, we have an excellent group of job market candidates this year. I urge you to closely study the summaries of these candidates and to be in touch with the candidates, their advisors, or me if you need any further information.
This full booklet, as well as job market candidate web pages and research papers, are available on our website at http://www.bu.edu/econ/phd/outcomes/phdcandidates/.
You can contact me at [email protected], by phone at (617) 353-2741 or by FAX at (617) 353-4449. I will be happy to talk with you about any of the candidates, but in particular about the micro and econometric students, since these are my areas of expertise. My colleague Professor Simon Gilchrist ([email protected], 617-353-6824) is also helping with job placement and is a better choice if you wish to discuss the macroeconomics and international economics candidates more fully. If you have difficulty reaching a candidate, please feel free to contact me or the Ph.D. program administrator Andrew Campolieto by email ([email protected]) or phone at 617-353-4454.
I hope the enclosed packet will be useful in your recruiting efforts.
Sincerely yours,
Randall P. Ellis Professor of Economics Boston University Department of Economics Faculty 270 Bay State Road Boston, MA 02215 http://www.bu.edu/econ
Ajayi, Kehinde [email protected] (617) 353-4144
Baxter, Marianne [email protected] (617) 353-2417
Bazzi, Samuel [email protected] (617) 353-6150 Carliner, Geoffrey [email protected] (617) 353-5663
Cati, Regina [email protected] (617) 353-4249
Chamley, Christophe [email protected] (617) 353-4250
Decarolis, Francesco [email protected] (617) 353-4535
Ellis, Randy [email protected] (617) 353-2741
Epstein, Larry [email protected] (617) 353-4142
Fernandez-Val, Ivan [email protected] (617) 353-9670 Fisman, Raymond [email protected] (617) 353-6821 Fiszbein, Martin [email protected] (617) 353-9583
Frydman, Carola [email protected] (617) 353-4396
Garetto, Stefania [email protected] (617) 358-5887
Gilchrist, Simon [email protected] (617) 353-6824
Guren, Adam [email protected] (617) 353-4534
Harris, John [email protected] (617) 353-8903
Huynh, Hsueh-Ling [email protected] (617) 353-6823
Idson, Todd [email protected] (617) 353-2742
Jaumandreu, Jordi [email protected] (617) 358-5925
Jones, Leroy [email protected] (617) 353-4123
Kaido, Hiroaki [email protected] (617) 358-5924
King, Robert [email protected] (617) 353-5941 Koskinen, Benjamiin [email protected] (617) 358-2603
Kotlikoff, Larry [email protected] (617) 353-4002
Lang, Kevin [email protected] (617) 353-5694
Lipman, Bart [email protected] (617) 353-2995
Lucas, Robert [email protected] (617) 353-4147
Ma, Albert [email protected] (617) 353-4010
Manove, Michael [email protected] (617) 353-3299
Margo, Robert [email protected] (617) 353-6819
McKay, Alisdair [email protected] (617) 353-6324 Miao, Jianjun [email protected] (617) 353-6675
Mookherjee, Dilip [email protected] (617) 353-4392
Newman, Andrew [email protected] (617) 358-4354
Noor, Jawwad [email protected] (617) 353-4436
Ortner, Juan [email protected] (617) 353-9583
Paserman, Daniele [email protected] (617) 353-5695
Perron, Pierre [email protected] (617) 353-3026 Persson, Bjorn [email protected] (617) 358-5926
Qu, Zhongjun [email protected] (617) 353-5921
Rysman, Marc [email protected] (617) 353-3086
Schmieder, Johannes [email protected] (617) 358-5923 Switala, Andre [email protected] (617) 358-2604
Tandon, Pankaj [email protected] (617) 353-3089 Terry, Stephen [email protected] (617) 353-4455
Vogelsang, Ingo [email protected] (617) 353-2996
Watson, Bruce [email protected] (617) 353-5851
2015-16 Boston University PhD Job Candidates
Name Email Job Market Paper Fields References Macroeconomics Stefania Garetto The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in Levent Altinoglu [email protected] International Economics Simon Gilchrist a Credit Network Economy Financial Economics Adam Guren Applied Microeconomics Jawwad Noor Mirko Fillbrunn [email protected] Strategic Voting and Ballot Order Effects Political Economy Dilip Mookherjee Behavioral Economics Daniele Paserman Zhongjun Qu Financial Econometrics Efficient Parameter Estimation for Gustavo Schwenkler Francois Guay [email protected] Asset Pricing Multivariate Jump-Diffusions Pierre Perron Computational Methods Steve Lawrence Rui Albuquerque Apoorva How Does Mutual Fund Reputation Financial Economics [email protected] Andrea Buffa Javadekar Affects Subsequent Fund Flows? International Economics Simon Gilchrist Do Workers Respond Differently Across Labor Economics Johannes Schmieder Kavan Kucko [email protected] Sources of Income: Evidence from Public Economics Kevin Lang Multiple Income Support Programs Macroeconomics Menzie Chinn Health Economics Randall Ellis Upcoding: Evidence from Medicare on Public Economics Thomas McGuire Timothy Layton [email protected] Squishy Risk Adjustment Labor Economics Keith Ericson Econometrics Joseph P. Newhouse Industrial Organization Albert Ma How Do Firms Advertise When Customer Quantitative Marketing Marc Rysman Ying Lei [email protected] Reviews are Available? Applied Game Theory Juan Ortner Applied Econometrics Monic Sun Marc Rysman Gateway Products in the DSLR Camera Industrial Organization Hiroaki Kaido Jiaxuan Li [email protected] Market: Dynamic Demand, Consumer Applied Econometrics Albert Ma Learning and Switching Costs Francesco Decarolis Financial Economics Jianjun Miao Big Data in Testing the Efficient Market Computational Economics Mengmeng Li [email protected] Zhongjun Qu Hypothesis of the Bitcoin Market Econometrics Stephen Terry Labor Economics International Economics Stefania Garetto The Dynamics of R&D Organization and Shuheng Lin [email protected] Industrial Organization Jordi Jaumandreau Productivity Growth Applied Econometrics Marc Rysman Economic History Dense Enough To Be Brilliant: Patents, Robert Margo Elisabeth Innovation [email protected] Urbanization, and Transportation in Carola Frydman Perlman Labor Economics Nineteenth Century America Daniele Paserman Urban/Regional Economics Decision Theory Barton Lipman The Compromise and Attraction Effects Behavioral Economics Alex Poterack [email protected] Jawwad Noor Through Frame Preferences Health Economics Dilip Mookherjee Industrial Organization Dilip Mookherjee Employment Protection and the Labor Development Economics Samuel Bazzi Daniel Schwab [email protected] Informality of the Youth: Evidence from Labor Economics Kevin Lang India Eric Werker What if Managers Are Not Impartial? The Andrew Newman Organizational Economics Yao Shu [email protected] Effect of Favoritism and Influence on Kevin Lang Labor Economics Incentive Design and Employee Effort Michael Manove Political Economy Barton Lipman Aggregate Uncertainty in Runoff Microeconomic Theory Benjamin Solow [email protected] Laurent Bouton Elections and Open Primaries Industrial Organization Juan Ortner Behavioral Economics The Persistent Effects of Credit Macroeconomics Daniele Paserman Patricio Toro [email protected] Availability During Recessions: Evidence Financial Economics Simon Gilchrist from a Natural Experiment Labor Economics Adam Guren Macroeconomics Simon Gilchrist Persistency of History: Financial Friction Ei Yang [email protected] Computational Economics Jianjun Miao and Mobility Distortion Development Economics Robert King Larry Epstein Asset Pricing Confidence, Bond Risks, and Asset Francois Gourio Guihai Zhao [email protected] Macroeconomics Returns Simon Gilchrist Monetary Economics Jianjun Miao Econometrics Zhongjun Qu Likelihood Ratio Based Tests for Markov Time Series Pierre Perron Fan Zhuo [email protected] Regime Switching Macroeconomics Hiroaki Kaido Empirical Finance Jianjun Miao
2016 PhD Candidates Boston University Department of Economics
Sorted by Last Name
Levent Altinoglu Macroeconomics, International Economics, Financial Economics
Mirko Fillbrunn Applied Microeconomics, Political Economy, Behavioral Economics
Francois Guay Financial Econometrics, Asset Pricing, Computational Methods
Apoorva Javadekar Financial Economics
Kavan Kucko Labor, Public, Macroeconomics
Timothy Layton Health, Public, Labor, Econometrics
Ying Lei Industrial Organization, Applied Microeconomics, Applied Game Theory
Jiaxuan Li Industrial Organization, Applied Econometrics
Mengmeng Li Financial Economics, Computational Economics, Econometrics, Labor Economics
Shuheng Lin International Industrial Organization, Applied Econometrics
Elisabeth Perlman Economic History, Innovation, Labor Economics, Urban/Regional Economics
Alex Poterack Decision Theory, Behavioral Economics, Health Economics, Industrial Organization
Daniel Schwab Development Economics, Labor Economics
Yao Shu Organizational Economics, Labor Economics
Benjamin Solow Political Economy, Microeconomic Theory, Industrial Organization, Behavioral Economics
Patricio Toro Macroeconomics, Financial Economics, Labor Economics
Ei Yang Macroeconomics, Computational Economics, Development Economics
Guihai Zhao Finance – Asset Pricing, Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics
Fan Zhuo Econometrics, Time Series, Macroeconomics, Empirical Finance 2016 PhD Candidates Boston University Department of Economics
Sorted by Major Fields
Behavioral Economics Health Economics Microeconomics Mirko Fillbrunn Timothy Layton Mirko Fillbrunn Alex Poterack Alex Poterack Ying Lei Benjamin Solow Alex Poterack Industrial Organization Yao Shu Computational Economics Ying Lei Benjamin Solow Francois Guay Jiaxuan Li Mengmeng Li Shuheng Lin Organizational Economics Ei Yang Alex Poterack Yao Shu Benjamin Solow Development Economics Political Economy Daniel Schwab International Economics Mirko Fillbrunn Ei Yang Levent Altinoglu Benjamin Solow Apoorva Javadekar Econometrics Public Economics Francois Guay Labor Economics Kavan Kucko Timothy Layton Kavan Kucko Timothy Layton Ying Lei Timothy Layton Jiaxuan Li Mengmeng Li Quantitative Marketing Mengmeng Li Elisabeth Perlman Ying Lei Shuheng Lin Daniel Schwab Fan Zhuo Yao Shu Theory Patricio Toro Alex Poterack Economic History Yao Shu Elisabeth Perlman Macroeconomics/ Benjamin Solow Monetary Economics Financial Economics Levent Altinoglu Urban/Regional Levent Altinoglu Apoorva Javadekar Economics Francois Guay Kavan Kucko Elisabeth Perlman Apoorva Javadekar Patricio Toro Mengmeng Li Ei Yang Patricio Toro Guihai Zhao Guihai Zhao Fan Zhuo Fan Zhuo
LEVENT ALTINOGLU 270 Bay State Road Department of Economics Boston University Boston MA 02215 Cell: (617) 817-6669 Email: [email protected] Website: blogs.bu.edu/levent
EDUCATION Ph.D., Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, May 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Essays on Firm-Level Frictions in Macroeconomics Dissertation Committee: Stefania Garetto, Simon Gilchrist, and Adam Guren B.S. (High Honors), Economics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 2010
FIELDSOF INTEREST Macroeconomics, Financial macroeconomics, International macroeconomics, International trade
TEACHING EXPERIENCE Teaching Fellow, Introduction to Macroeconomics, Department of Economics, Boston University, Fall 2012 Teaching Fellow, Introduction to Macroeconomics, Department of Economics, Boston University, Spring 2012
WORK EXPERIENCE
Research Assistant, Stefania Garetto, Boston University (Spring 2013, Fall 2013, Spring 2014, Fall 2014)
FELLOWSHIPSAND AWARDS Dissertation Fellowship, Federal Reserve Board, Division of International Finance, Summer 2015 Dean’s Fellowship, Boston University, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences Special Research Fellowship, Spring 2015, Boston University, Department of Economics Levent Altinoglu
Senior Honors Program, Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University Honors Thesis: “Do Zoning Ordinances Affect the Price of Housing?” (2010) Thesis Advisor: Dennis Epple Undergraduate Economics Program Competition, First Place: “Do Zoning Ordinances Affect the Distribution of Housing?” (2010)
WORKING PAPERS “The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy,” October 2015. (Job Market Paper)
“Cross-Border Hiring and Unemployment in a Global Economy,” October 2012.
WORKIN PROGRESS “Credit Constraints and Job Creation: Evidence from Small Firms” July 2015 “Information-Driven Credit Cycles” (with Giacomo Candian), July 2015
LANGUAGES English (native), Turkish (fluent), French (moderate)
COMPUTING SKILLS MATLAB, Stata
CITIZENSHIP Australia, Turkey, United States (permanent residency)
REFERENCES Stefania Garetto Simon Gilchrist Adam Guren Department of Economics Department of Economics Department of Economics Boston University Boston University Boston University Phone: (617) 358-5887 Phone: (617) 353-6824 Phone: (617) 353-4534 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] LEVENT ALTINOGLU
The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy, (Job Market Paper) I study how shocks propagate in a credit network economy. I build a model of an econ- omy in which trade in intermediate goods is financed by supplier credit. The credit linkages between firms propagate liquidity shocks and generate a multiplier effect on aggregate output. I construct a proxy of inter-industry trade credit flows by combin- ing firm-level balance sheet data and industry-level input-output data, with which I calibrate the model. I use a structural factor approach to estimate shocks to US in- dustrial production (IP) industries from 1997-2013. Taking into account the credit linkages between these industries, I find that most aggregate volatility in IP was driven by idiosyncratic productivity shocks and aggregate liquidity shocks. During the Great Recession, three-quarters of the drop in aggregate IP was due to an aggregate liquidity shock, and the remainder can be accounted for by idiosynratic liquidity shocks to a few systemically important industries. I provide microevidence in line with the model’s key mechanism.
Credit Constraints and Job Creation: Evidence from Small Firms Small firms account for nearly two-thirds of net new jobs. I examine the effects of credit availability on job creation and destruction by small firms using the Survey of Small Business Finances. I first exploit a feature of standard trade credit contracts to identify firms which are liquidity-constrained. I then use the cross-sectional variation in bankruptcy exemption laws across states as an instrument for the supply of credit. I study the differential effects of credit supply on the hiring and firing behavior of constrained and unconstrained firms, and relate these effects to product characteristics and certain aspects of bank-firm relationships. Finally, I develop a model to explain these effects and assess their quantitative significance.
Cross-Border Hiring and Unemployment in a Global Economy To better understand the relationship between international trade and unemployment, this paper develops a static general equilibrium model with labor market frictions and heterogeneous firms. The novelty is that firms can engage in cross-border hiring, by employing labor domestically or from abroad. There are two channels through which unemployment responds to trade liberalization: there is a rise in expected worker in- come which reduces unemployment, and an increase in wages which increases the unemployment rate. This paper outlines the conditions on the model parameters under which unemployment rises or falls after trade liberalization. This unique framework is tractable and demonstrates that models in the literature which ignore cross-border hiring likely underestimate the upward force of trade liberalization on unemployment. Mirko Fillbrunn 270 Bay State Road Boston, MA, 02215 USA Cell: +1-857-218-2641 Email: mfi@bu.edu Website: http://people.bu.edu/mfi
Education Ph.D. in Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, 2010 - May 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Essays on Applied Political Economy Dissertation Committee: Jawwad Noor, Dilip Mookherjee, and M. Daniele Paserman Diplom, Business Mathematics, University of Duisburg-Esssen, Duisburg, GERMANY, 2009 (equivalent to Masters)
Fields of Interest Applied Microeconomics, Political Economy, Behavioral Economics
Teaching Experience Teaching Fellow, Introduction to Microeconomics 101, Department of Economics, Boston University, Fall 2012, Spring 2014, and Spring 2015
Work Experience Research Assistant for Professor Leena Rudanko, Boston University, Fall 2011, Spring 2012, Fall 2013 Intern DZ Bank AG, New York, 2009 Intern DZ Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main, 2008
Fellowships and Awards Rosenstein-Rodan Prize for job market paper "Strategic Voting and Ballot Order Effects" (best original research on development economics or a related discipline among PhD students), Institute for Economic Development, Summer 2014 Dean’s Fellowship, Boston University, 2010-2015 Special Research Fellowship, Boston University, Spring 2013, Fall 2014 Summer Funding, Boston University, 2010-2014
Working Papers "Strategic Voting and Ballot Order Effects," (Job Market Paper) October 2015 "Voting Behavior, Newspapers, and Language," May 2015
Work in Progress "Blame it on the Recession"" "Uninformed Strategic Voting"
Conferences and Presentations Econometric Society, Minneapolis, Minnesota, MN, 2014 European Economic Association, Toulouse, France, 2014 SITE summer workshop (Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics), Palo Alto, CA, 2014 Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Kiel University, Kiel, Germany, 2014 Mirko Fillbrunn
Computer Skills: STATA, MATLAB, Mathematica, LaTex Date of birth: 08/07/1990 Citizenship/VISA: Germany/ F1 Languages: Fluent in English and German, Intermediate Spanish
References
Professor Jawwad Noor Professor Dilip Mookherjee Department of Economics Department of Economics Boston University Boston University 270 Bay State Road 270 Bay State Road Boston MA 02215 USA Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-353-4436 Phone: +1-617-353-4392 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
Professor M. Daniele Paserman Department of Economics Boston University 270 Bay State Road Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-353-5695 Email: [email protected]
September 2015 Mirko Fillbrunn
Strategic Voting and Ballot Order Effects (Job Market Paper) Substantial evidence suggests that candidates may benefit from being listed early on voting ballots. I provide new evidence on how these ballot order effects change with the number of votes a voter may cast and a candidate’s chances to win the election. Motivated by these regularities, I offer a theory of ballot order effects that combines both behavioral and, new in the literature, rational aspects of voting. I show that this theory is consistent with the empirical patterns and find that rational voters account for around half of total ballot order effects. Lastly, I consider basic versions of purely behavioral models which turn out to be difficult to reconcile with the empirical patterns presented here. Voting Behavior, Newspapers, and Language I use variation in languages across Europe to identify a causal impact of newspaper sales on voter turnout. Languages differ in how much space they require to express information. I estimate such language efficiency from large bilingual text compilations. Using a European-wide survey with 18 languages, I find that respondents who speak efficient languages are more likely to read newspapers. This finding is robust to considering only immigrants, controlling for peer effects or using country-level data. Preliminary results show that newspaper consumption increases immigrants’ voter turnout when using language efficiency as an instrument for newspaper consumption to account for potential reverse causality. Blame it on the Recession People may blame their misfortune on external forces rather than their own shortcomings to preserve a positive self-image or stay optimistic for the future. Recessions can reinforce this behavior by providing a convenient scapegoat for financial setbacks. I investigate whether such attribution bias indeed varies with the business cycle and find preliminary supportive evidence using the Michigan Survey of Consumers. I show that such state-dependent attribution bias can lead to compromised information aggregation in elections and discuss its implications for stigma-based models. Francois¸ D. Guay 270 Bay State Rd Boston University, Department of Economics Boston, MA, 02215 USA Cell: (857) 272-6029 Email: [email protected] Website: http://sites.google.com/site/frguay1
Education Ph.D. in Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Parameter Inference for Multivariate Stochastic Processes with Jumps Dissertation Committee: Zhongjun Qu, Gustavo Schwenkler and Pierre Perron Ph.D. Classes, Economics, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada, 2011 M.Sc., Applied Mathematics, Operations Research, École Polytechnique de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada, 2010 B.Sc., Engineering, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, École Nationale Supérieure d’Arts et Métiers, Paris, France, 2008
Fields of Interest Financial Econometrics, Asset Pricing, Computational Methods
Fellowships and Awards Hariri Graduate Fellowship, Hariri Institute for Computing and Computational Science & Engineering, Boston University, Summer 2015 IED Travel Grant, Boston University, Spring 2015 Department Fellowship, Boston University Department of Economics, 2012 - 2015 Special Research Fellowship, École Polytechnique de Montréal, 2009 - 2010
Work Experience Quantextual Team Intern, State Street Associates, Cambridge, MA, 06/2015 - present Research Assistant for Laurent Barras, McGill University, Summer 2011
Working Papers "Efficient Parameter Estimation for Multivariate Jump-Diffusions" (Job Market Paper) (with Gustavo Schwenkler), October 2015 "A Stochastic Volatility Model with Markov-Switching Jumps", September 2015 "A Class of Markov Switching Stochastic Volatility Models" (with Fan Zhuo), August 2015 "Optimal Pricing in Media Revenue Management" (Master’s Thesis), August 2010
Work in Progress "Uncovering the Transition Density of Multivariate Diffusions" (with Gustavo Schwenkler) Francois¸ D. Guay
Teaching Experience Teaching Fellow, Statistics for Economists (Master’s level), Boston University, Fall 2014, 2015 Teaching Fellow, Advanced Econometrics (Ph.D. level), Boston University, Spring 2013, 2014 Instructor, Intermediate Macroeconomics, Boston University, Summer 2014 Teaching Fellow, Introduction to Macroeconomics, Boston University, Fall 2012 - Fall 2013
Conferences and External Presentations Green Line BU-BC Conference, Boston University, December 2015 (scheduled) Finance Brown Bag Seminar, Questrom School of Business, Boston University, October 2015 Econometrics Seminar, Boston University, October 2015 4th PhD Student Conference in Intl Macroeconomics and Financial Econometrics, Paris, March 2015 Econometrics Seminar, Boston University, March 2015 Optimizations Days 2010, Montreal, June 2010
Certification: Passed all three levels of the CFA program, CFA Institute (US), 2015 Professional Service: Officer of the BU Graduate Economics Association
Computer Skills: R, Matlab, C++, MS Office and LATEX Languages: English (fluent), French (native) Citizenship/Visa: France / in-process for a Green card
References
Professor Zhongjun Qu Professor Gustavo Schwenkler Department of Economics Department of Finance, Questrom School of Business Boston University Boston University 270 Bay State Rd 595 Commonwealth Avenue Boston MA 02215 USA Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-358-5921 Phone: +1-617-353-4615 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
Professor Pierre Perron Steven Lawrence Department of Economics SSGX Boston University State Street Associates 270 Bay State Rd 140 Mt Auburn St. Boston MA 02215 USA Cambridge MA 02138 USA Phone: +1-617-353-3026 Phone: +1-617-259-8024 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
October 2015 Francois¸ D. Guay
Efficient Parameter Estimation for Multivariate Jump-Diffusions (Job Market Paper) (with Gustavo Schwenkler), October 2015 This paper develops an unbiased Monte-Carlo estimator of the transition density of a multivariate jump-diffusion process. The drift, volatility, jump intensity, and jump magnitude are allowed to be state-dependent and non-affine. It is not necessary that the volatility matrix can be diagonalized using a change of variable or change of time. Our density estimator facilitates the parametric estimation of multivariate jump diffusion models based on discretely observed data. Under standard conditions, the parameter estimators we propose have the same asymptotic behavior as maximum likelihood estimators when the number of data points grows, even after keeping the observation frequency of the data fixed. In a numerical case study of practical relevance, our density and parameter estimators are found to be highly accurate and computationally efficient.
A Stochastic Volatility Model with Markov-Switching Jumps, September 2015 In this paper, I examine continuous-time stochastic volatility models with jumps in returns and volatility, where the jumps parameters are Markov-switching. I estimate the parameters and the latent processes for the S&P500 and the Nasdaq indices from 1990 to 2014. I find that jumps account for a larger part of the total variance of the returns when allowing the jump intensity to be Markov-switching. In periods of market stress, the dynamics of stochastic volatility differ significantly from the non Markov-switching case, and contributes less to the observed variation in the returns. I test for Markov-switching using the Odds ratios, which reveal the presence of Markov-Switching in the jumps. The models are estimated by MCMC methods.
A Class of Markov Switching Stochastic Volatility Models (with Fan Zhuo), August 2015 This paper provides tools to estimate Markov-Switching continuous-time affine stochastic volatility models with jumps in returns and volatility, where the jumps parameters are not Markov-switching. The estimation is performed via MCMC, which allows to obtain the latent processes induced by the modeling. Furthermore, we propose some misspecification tests and develop a Markov-switching test based on the Odds ratios. We estimate the parameters and the latent processes for the S&P500 and the Nasdaq indices from 1990 to 2014. We show that the S&P500 is the only index exhibiting a Markov-switching behavior, even though plots of the Markov chain for the Nasdaq deceivingly show the contrary.
Optimal Pricing in Media Revenue Management (Master’s thesis - in French), August 2010 TV Channels face many problems when they sell their inventory to media agencies. They have to choose which commercials should be aired, and simultaneously determine the prices of these commercials, while staying competitive. This master’s thesis provides a bilevel programming model to tackle this revenue management problem. The novelty of this modeling lies in the introduction of patterns of commercial spots. As in the cutting stock problem, I use patterns to "cut" media inventories. This way, a pattern can be considered as a set of commercials, and TV channels sell selection of commercial spots. I develop an algorithm to solve the problem, based on well chosen pre-processive cuts. My algorithm allows to optimally schedule and price patterns of commercial spots for a typical prime time on TV. Apoorva Javadekar 270 Bay State Rd Boston University, Department of Economics Boston, MA, 02215 USA Cell USA: (+1)617-304-7719 Cell India: (+91)9423004488 Email: [email protected] Website: https://sites.google.com/site/apoorvajavadekar
Education Ph.D. in Economics, Boston University, Boston, USA, (Expected May 2016) Dissertation Title: Essays on Mutual Funds Dissertation Committee: Rui Alburqueque, Andrea Buffa, Simon Gilchrist M.S.c, Financial Engineering, (Distinction), 2008-2009 Birkbeck College, University of London, U.K M.A, Economics, 2006-2008 Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, India Chartered Accountant (Financial Auditor), 2001-2005 Institute of Chartered Accountants of India Bachelor of Commerce , (Distinction), University of Pune, India, 2001-2004 Specialization: Statistics Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA Institute, USA Exam Status: Passed all three levels
Fields of Interest Mutual Funds, Asset Pricing, International Finance
Consultancy Assignments and Work Experience Consultant (Project Financing) to Adani Infrastructure Ltd, India, 2015-present Research Assistant (Equity Valuation) to Prof. Scott Stewart, Boston University, 2011-2012 Equity Researcher at Wealth Managers (India) Pvt. Ltd, 2005-2006 Audit and Taxation Articleship at B.L. Phatak & Co. for Chartered Accountancy program, 2002-2005
Teaching Experience Lecturer (International Finance), Questrom School of Business, Boston University, 2014-2015 Teaching Fellow, Microeconomic Analysis, Department of Economics, Boston University, Fall 2011 Assistant professor in Finance, Indira Institute of Management, India, 2009-2010
Working Papers "How Does Mutual Fund Reputation Affects Subsequent Fund Flows?" (Job Market Paper). "Mutual Fund Flows When Manager Has Timing and Picking Skills"
Work in Progress "Asymmetric Correlation in International Equity Markets" (Joint with Rui Albuquerque) Apoorva Javadekar
Media & Presentations Article in Hindustan Times titled Puzzles in Globalization, 2013 Presented "Performance of Mutual Funds" at Gokhale Institute of Economics and Political Science, India, 2013
Professional Service: Referee for Finance Research Letters
Computer Skills: Stata, Matlab, MS Office, and LATEX Citizenship: India (Visa F1)
References Professor Rui Albuequerque Professor Andrea Buffa Questrom School of Business Questrom School of Business Boston University Boston University 595 Commonwealth Avenue 595 Commonwealth Avenue Boston MA 02215 USA Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-353-4614 Phone: +1-617-353-4404 Email: [email protected] Email: buff[email protected]
Professor Simon Gilchrist Department of Economics Boston University 270 Bay State Rd Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-353-6824 Email: [email protected]
October 2015 Apoorva Javadekar
How Does Mutual Fund Reputation Affects Subsequent Fund Flows? (Job Market Paper) Paper offers a novel evidence that the link between recent mutual fund performance and subsequent fund flows is largely shaped by it’s reputation as measured by it’s prior long-term performance. Both sensitivity and level of fund flows increases in reputation. Particularly, for a fund with low level of reputation, flows are weakly responsive to recent performance. In short, return chasing is limited only for funds with strong reputation. When investors learn about unknown managerial quality and when update to beliefs are a function of signals only independent of priors as in the case of Gaussian signals, competitive capital markets imply that fund flows are completely determined by recent performance. In light of this, I explain the dependence of fund flows on reputation using presence of Inattentive Investors who are otherwise rational. Model additionally generates implications about performance persistence, impact of managerial replacements and fee structure. All the implications are confirmed in the data. Mutual Fund Flows When Manager Has Timing and Picking Skills Mutual fund manager can add value either by picking profitable assets and generating alpha or by timing the market by adjusting beta. While traditional theories have focussed on alpha component of manager’s skill, I built a model where manager has both types of skills. This generates an interesting learning mechanism whereby what investors learn about manager depends not only upon managerial performance but market state as well. In particular, period of high (low) market volatility is informative about timing (picking) skills. Because investors value timing skills more during high volatile periods, mutual fund flows inherit cyclical nature implicit in learning mechanism. I test and confirm these predictions in the data. In particular, I show that fund flow sensitivity is increasing in magnitude of market movement as well as conditional volatility, that recessions being characterized by high conditional volatility are also the times with higher flow sensitivity and that funds with good timing skills experience higher capital flows when forecatsed volatility is higher. Asymmetric Correlations In International Equity Markets (Work in progress) (Joint With Rui Albuquerque) There is large evidence suggesting that global equity returns have higher correlations during recessions as compared to expansions. We show that similar pattern is observable for equity fundamentals like GDP growth or industrial production. We explore asset pricing implications of asymmetric correlations of fundamentals in a standard endowment economy. KAVAN KUCKO Boston University Department of Economics 270 Bay State Road Boston MA 02215 Cell: (608) 217-6626 Email: [email protected] Website: https://sites.google.com/site/kavankucko/
EDUCATION Ph.D., Economics, Boston University, May 2016 (Expected) Main advisor: Johannes Schmieder
M.P.A., International Public Affairs, La Follette School for Public Affairs, Madison WI, 2008
B.A., Economics/Math Emphasis, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2007
FIELDS OF INTEREST Labor Economics, Public Economics, Macroeconomics.
TEACHING EXPERIENCE Instructor, Introduction to Microeconomics, Boston University, Summer 2013 Instructor, Introduction to Microeconomics, Boston University, Summer 2012 Teaching Fellow, Introduction to Microeconomics, Boston University, Fall 2011 & Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow, Introduction to Macroeconomics , Boston University, Spring 2012 Math and Economics Tutor, University of Wisconsin-Madison Athletic Department, 2006-2007
WORK EXPERIENCE Research Assistant, Boston University, Spring 2015 & Spring 2012-Spring 2014 Research Assistant, Boston University School of Management, Summer 2012 Research Assistant, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2008-2010 Project Assistant, La Follette School of Public Affairs, Fall 2007-Spring 2008
CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS National Tax Association's 107th Annual Conference on Taxation, Santa Fe, 2014 Western Economic Association's 89th Annual Conference, Denver, 2014 8th Annual Meeting of the Portuguese Economic Journal, Braga, 2014 Summer School on Socioeconomic Inequality, Chicago, 2013 Barcelona GSE Summer Forum, Barcelona, 2013 Euro Area Business Cycle Network Workshop on Uncertainty over the Business Cycle, Frankfurt, 2009
FELLOWHSIPS AND AWARDS Special Research Fellowship, Boston University, Spring 2015 Selected for Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings on Economic Sciences, 2014 Dean's Fellowship, Boston University, 2010-2015 La Follette Project Assistantship, La Follette School of Public Affairs, 2008
REFEREE EXPERIENCE Journal of International Money and Finance, International Review of Economics and Finance KAVAN KUCKO
PUBLICATION “The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time,” (with Menzie Chinn) International Finance, (Forthcoming).
WORKING PAPER “Labor Market Outcomes of Veterans with Post-2001 Service Time,” October 2014.
WORK IN PROGRESS “Does the Labor Force Respond Differently Across Sources of Income: Evidence from Multiple Supplemental Income Programs (Job Market Paper)”
“Optimal Income Taxation with Unemployment and Wage Responses: A Sufficient Statistics Approach,” (with Kory Kroft, Etienne Lehmann and Johannes Schmieder)
COMPUTER SKILLS: STATA, MATLAB, JavaScript, Python, FAME, Microsoft Office/Apache Open Office
OTHER: Curling, Softball, Snowboarding, Guitar
REFERENCES
Professor Johannes Professor Kevin Professor Menzie Schmieder Lang Chinn Department of Economics Department of Economics Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs Boston University Boston University University of Wisconsin-Madison Phone: Phone: Phone: Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] KAVAN KUCKO
Does the Labor Force Respond Differently Across Sources of Income: Evidence from Multiple Supplemental Income Programs (Job Market Paper) Supplemental income programs aimed at transferring resources to low income individuals face an important tension. Unconditional transfers to those not working create incentives for workers to leave the labor force. Conditioning benefits on labor force participation effectively reduce the resources available to those who are unable to work. Through the expansion of EITC and welfare reform, United States shifted focus from unconditional transfers to in work subsidies. The effectiveness of these programs depend on the willingness and ability for individuals to adjust their employment status. Furthermore, many models of optimal taxation depend on estimates of the the labor supply elasticity with respect to net of tax income for implementation. There is no a priori reason to believe labor supply elasticities across these income sources should be equal. In this paper I separately estimates labor supply elasticities associated with various sources of income within the context of a discrete choice model. I also tests for income effects that may result in differing elasticities across the earnings distribution. The differences in elasticities across sources of income can inform both policy makers as well as optimal taxation theory. Optimal Income Taxation with Unemployment and Wage Responses: A Sufficient Statistics Approach This paper reassesses whether the optimal income tax program features an Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or a Negative Income Tax (NIT) at the bottom of the income distribution, in the presence of unemployment and wage responses to taxation. The paper makes two key contributions. First, it derives a sufficient statistics optimal tax formula in a general model that incorporates unemployment and endogenous wages. This formula nests a broad variety of structures of the labor market, such as competitive models with fixed or flexible wages and models with matching frictions. Our results show that the sufficient statistics to be estimated are: the macro employment response with respect to taxation and the micro and macro participation responses with respect to taxation. We show that an EITC-like policy is optimal provided that the welfare weight on the working poor is larger than the ratio of the micro participation elasticity to the macro participation elasticity. The second contribution is to estimate the sufficient statistics that are inputs to the optimal tax formula using a standard quasi-experimental research design. We estimate these reduced-form parameters using policy variation in tax liabilities stemming from the U.S. tax and transfer system for over 20 years. Using our empirical estimates, we implement our sufficient statistics formula and show that the optimal tax at the bottom more closely resembles an NIT relative to the case where unemployment and wage responses are not taken into account. Labor Market Outcomes of Veterans with Post-2001 Service Time Military members that serve post-2001 are at a higher risk of long combat tours that could affect future labor outcomes. This paper quantifies the differences in labor market outcomes between veterans who have served during the post-2001 era and those who served since 1980. I find significant differences in wage earnings and probability of employment across veteran types. Veterans tend to earn more than non-veterans, but effects are larger for minority men and even greater for women, regardless of race. Post-2001 veterans, tend to be underemployed compared to other veterans. Young veterans appear to explain a much of the underemployment.
The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time In recent year, there has been renewed interest in the yield curve (or alternatively, the term premium) as a predictor of future economic activity. In this article, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor for both the United States and other advanced economies. We examine the sensitivity of the results to the selection of countries, and to time periods. We find that the predictive power of the yield curve has deteriorated in the last half of the sample period, although there is evidence of a reversal in the lead-up to the Great Recession. There is reason to believe that European country models perform better than those with non-European countries when using more recent data. In addition, the yield curve proves to have predictive power even after accounting for other leading indicators of economic activity.
TIMOTHY J. LAYTON Ph.D. 180 Longwood Ave Boston MA 02115 USA Cell: (573) 353-1566 Email: [email protected] Web site: http://scholar.harvard.edu/tlayton
CURRENT POSITION NIMH Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School (2014-2016)
EDUCATION Ph.D., Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, May 2014 Dissertation Title: Risk Selection and Risk Adjustment in Competitive Health Insurance Markets Dissertation Committee: Randall P. Ellis, Thomas G. McGuire, Keith M. Ericson
B.A., Economics and Political Science, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, 2009
FIELDS OF INTEREST Health Economics, Public Finance, Labor Economics, Econometrics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE Instructor, Introduction to Econometrics, Boston University, Summer 2012 Head Teaching Fellow, Introductory Micro and Macro Analysis, Boston University, 2011-12 Instructor, Economic Statistics, Boston University, Summer 2011 Teaching Assistant, Development Economics, Department of Economics, Brigham Young University, Spring 2009
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE Research Assistant for Thomas McGuire, Harvard Medical School, 2012-2014 Research Assistant for Randall Ellis, Boston University, 2012-2014 Research Assistant for Marianne Baxter, Boston University, 2010 Research Assistant for Michael Meurer and James Bessen, Boston University, 2009-10 Research Assistant for Frank McIntyre, Brigham Young University, 2009
GRANTS J-PAL North America Health Care Delivery Initiative: Intervening with Consumers to Improve Choices on Health Insurance Marketplaces, 2015 (Co-Investigator), $135,300 Summer Research Grant, Boston University, 2013 (PI), $5,000
FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDS Mark A. Satterthwaite Award for Outstanding Research in Healthcare Markets, Kellogg School of Management, 2014 Special Research Fellowship, Boston University, 2013 Teaching Fellowship, Boston University, 2011-2012
Dr. Timothy J. Layton
PUBLICATIONS Timothy J. Layton, Thomas G. McGuire, Anna D. Sinaiko. (2015) “Risk Corridors and Reinsurance in Health Insurance Exchanges: Insurance for Insurers.” American Journal of Health Economics, forthcoming. Timothy J. Layton and Andrew Ryan. (2015) “The Effect of Medicare Advantage Quality- Based Payment on Quality of Care in Medicare.” Health Services Research, forthcoming. Randall P. Ellis and Timothy J. Layton. (2014) “Risk Adjustment and Risk Selection.” in Anthony J. Culyer (ed) Encyclopedia of Health Economics, Elsevier Press. Jane Zhu, Timothy J. Layton, Anna D. Sinaiko, and Thomas G. McGuire. (2013) “The Power of Reinsurance in Health Insurance Exchanges to Improve the Fit of the Payment System and Reduce Incentives for Adverse Selection.” Inquiry, vol. 50(4): 255-274.
WORKING PAPERS Michael Geruso and Timothy J. Layton. (2015) “Upcoding: Evidence from Medicare on Squishy Risk Adjustment.” NBER Working Paper 21222. Timothy J. Layton, Randall P. Ellis, and Thomas G. McGuire. (2015) “Assessing Incentives for Adverse Selection in Health Plan Payment Systems.” NBER Working Paper 21531. Timothy J. Layton. (2015) “Imperfect Risk Adjustment, Risk Preferences, and Sorting in Competitive Health Insurance Markets” (Winner: Mark A. Satterthwaite Award, Kellogg School of Management, 2014)
WORKS IN PROGRESS “Using ‘Nudges’ to Enhance Competition and Save Consumers Money on Health Insurance Exchanges/Marketplaces” (with Keith Ericson, Adam Sacarny, and Jon Kingsdale) “Are All Managed Care Plans Created Equal? Evidence from Random Plan Assignment in New York Medicaid Managed Care” (with Michael Geruso and Jacob Wallace) “Adverse Tiering in Health Insurance Marketplaces” (with Michael Geruso) “Health Plan Payment in Markets with Public and Private Options” (with Thomas G. McGuire and Joseph P. Newhouse) “The Effect of the Medicare Advantage Quality Bonus Demonstration on Quality in Private Medicare Plans” (with John Ayanian and Andy Ryan)
CONFERENCES AND PRESENTATIONS 2015: ASSA Annual Meeting, BU/Harvard/MIT Health Economics Seminar, Risk Adjustment Network (scheduled), National Tax Association Annual Meeting (scheduled), Harvard Medical School (scheduled)
2014: Kellogg School of Management Conference on Healthcare Markets, American Society of Health Economists, Research Triangle Institute, Risk Adjustment Network, Annual Health Economics Conference
2013: Risk Adjustment Network, Southeastern Health Economics Study Group.
PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES Referee for Journal of Health Economics, Health Services Research, Inquiry
LANGUAGES: Fluent in English and Spanish COMPUTER SKILLS: STATA, SAS, LaTeX, Microsoft Office CITIZENSHIP/VISA: USA
October 2015 2 Dr. Timothy J. Layton
REFERENCES
Professor Randall P. Ellis Professor Thomas G. McGuire Department of Economics Department of Health Care Policy Boston University Harvard Medical School Phone: (617) 353-2741 Phone: (617) 432-3536 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
Professor Keith M. Marzilli Professor Joseph P. Newhouse Ericson Department of Health Care Policy Dept of Markets, Public Policy, and Law Harvard Medical School Questrom School of Business Phone: (617) 432-1325 Boston University Email: [email protected] Phone: (617) 353-4553 Email: [email protected]
October 2015 3
TIMOTHY J. LAYTON
Upcoding: Evidence from Medicare on Squishy Risk Adjustment (Job Market Paper) (with Michael Geruso)
Upcoding---manipulation of patient diagnoses in order to game payment systems---has gained significant attention following the increased use of risk-adjusted health plan payments in US insurance markets. We use a novel strategy for identifying upcoding in markets with adverse selection to provide new evidence that private Medicare plans generate 6% to 16% higher diagnosis-based risk scores than the same enrollees would generate under fee-for-service Medicare, where diagnoses do not determine payments. Our estimates imply upcoding generated excess public spending of $10 billion annually and significant consumer choice distortions. Among private plans, we show coding intensity increases with vertical integration, reflecting a principal-agent problem faced by insurers who desire more intense coding from the physicians with whom they contract.
Imperfect Risk Adjustment, Risk Preferences and Sorting in Competitive Health Insurance Markets
Risk adjustment, a policy aimed at reducing insurer “cream-skimming” incentives, can also ameliorate another type of selection problem where consumers inefficiently sort between fixed insurance contracts. I study how imperfect risk adjustment affects prices, sorting, and welfare in competitive health insurance markets. Using a model of consumer choices and plan prices along with a useful graphical representation, I show that the effectiveness of a particular risk adjustment policy depends on the correlation between consumer demand for the adversely selected plan and the “risk scores” assigned to them for the purpose of risk adjustment, not on the correlation between risk scores and costs conventionally used to evaluate risk adjustment policies. I then use administrative health insurance claims data from a large employer and a structural model of consumer demand to simulate competitive equilibria under various risk adjustment policies. Without risk-adjustment the market completely unravels. However, when diagnosis-based risk- adjustment similar to that being used in the Exchanges is implemented, a substantial portion of market unraveling is undone, with over 80% of individuals enrolling in the more comprehensive plan, implying a welfare gain of over $700 per person.
Assessing Incentives for Adverse Selection in Health Plan Payment Systems (with Randall P. Ellis and Thomas G. McGuire)
Health insurance markets face two adverse selection problems. On the demand side, adverse selection leads to price distortions and inefficient sorting of consumers across health plans. On the supply side, adverse selection creates incentives for plans to inefficiently distort benefits. These problems can be addressed by features of health plan payment systems such as premium risk-rating, risk adjustment, and reinsurance. We develop simple Harberger-type measures of the efficiency consequences of both distortions under a given payment system that can be implemented by policymakers to compare payment systems. We illustrate the use of these measures by comparing the payment system used in the Federal Marketplace to several policy alternatives.
October 2015
YING LEI 270 Bay State Road Boston MA 02215 USA Cell: (617) 961-2812 Fax: (617) 353-4449 Email: [email protected] Web site: http://blogs.bu.edu/ylei/
EDUCATION Ph.D., Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Essays on Internet Economics Main Advisor: Albert Ma Dissertation Committee: Albert Ma, Marc Rysman, Juan Ortner and Monic Sun M.A., Economics, New York University, New York NY, 2010 B.A., Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China, 2008
FIELDS OF INTEREST Industrial Organization, Applied Microeconomics, Applied Game Theory
TEACHING EXPERIENCE Department of Economics, Boston University Instructor, Intermediate Microeconomics, Fall 2015 Teaching Fellow, Empirical Economics, Spring 2015 Teaching Fellow, Statistics for Economists (graduate), Spring 2015 Teaching Fellow, Economics of Information (graduate), Spring 2014, Fall 2011 Teaching Fellow, Behavioral Economics, Spring 2014, Fall 2011 Teaching Fellow, Game Theory (undergraduate and graduate), Spring 2012 Stern School of Business, New York University Teaching Assistant, Microeconomics, Spring 2010
WORK EXPERIENCE Research Assistant, Questrom School of Business, Boston University, Professor Monic Sun, Spring 2015 Research Assistant (Data Analysis), Department of Economics, Boston University, Professor Daniele Paserman, Fall 2012-Spring 2013
FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDS Special Research Fellowship, Boston University, Fall 2013, Fall 2014 Summer Research Grant, Boston University, Summer 2014 Teaching Fellowship, Boston University, 2011-2015 Excellent Student Award, Renmin University of China, 2006-2008
October, 2015 Ying Lei
WORKING PAPERS “How Do Firms Advertise when Customer Reviews are Available?”, September 2015. “Advertising Response to A Better Online Rating: A Regression Discontinuity Design on Local Restaurants”, October 2015.
WORKS IN PROGRESS “Delay in Platform Adoption” (joint with Marc Rysman) “Customer Reviews and Quality Disclosure” (joint with Jacopo Bizzotto) “Advertising vs. Customer Reviews: A Model of Dynamic Signaling and Social Learning” (joint with Mengxi Zhang)
REFEREE EXPERIENCE Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Economic Analysis and Policy
CONFERENCES “How Do Firms Advertise when Customer Reviews are Available?” 13th Annual International Industrial Organization Conference, Boston, MA, 2015 8th Workshop on Economics of Advertising and Marketing, Oxford, UK, 2015 10th Economic Graduate Student Conference, Washington University in St. Louis, 2015
LANGUAGES Fluent in English, Native in Chinese (Mandarin)
COMPUTER SKILLS: STATA, R, MATLAB, Mathematica, LaTex, Lyx, Microsoft Office
OTHER: Flute (Amateur Top Level Certificate), Piano (Amateur Top Level Certificate)
CITIZENSHIP/VISA: China/F1
REFERENCES
Professor Ching-To Albert Ma Professor Marc Rysman Department of Economics Department of Economics Boston University Boston University Phone: (617) 353-4010 Phone: (617) 353-3086 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
Professor Juan Ortner Professor Monic Sun Department of Economics Questrom School of Business Boston University Boston University Phone: (617) 353-6323 Phone: (617) 353-9640 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
October, 2015
YING LEI
How Do Firms Advertise When Customer Reviews are Available? (Job Market Paper)
Online consumer product reviews have become very popular and influential in consumers’ purchase decisions. I study how competing firms choose advertising and prices when customer reviews are available and when firms may build up loyal customer bases. The model predicts that higher-rated firms are more likely to be dominant in advertising. I also analyze an extreme case of the model: an entry game in which an entrant and an incumbent interact. I find that the availability of customer reviews undoes the “fat-cat” effect of a big incumbent with a lot of loyal customers. An incumbent with a high enough ratio of good reviews can successfully deter entry and maintain a high profit. In the end, with data of local restaurants, I use regression discontinuity estimates to test the prediction of the main model, and find supporting empirical evidence in restaurants’ advertising patterns. Comparative statics of the theory model can explain the pattern of advertising response to Yelp rating found in the empirical RDD paper.
Advertising Response to A Better Online Rating: A Regression Discontinuity Design on Local Restaurants
I analyze the advertising spending pattern of local restaurants with different online ratings on Yelp.com. Rating information on Yelp includes the display rating and the distribution of reviews. Surprisingly, although both types of rating information summarize to different extents how consumers like a restaurant, advertising spending responds in entirely opposite directions to changes in display rating and in average rating (i.e. a summary statistic of the distribution). Given the discontinuity in Yelp display ratings that is created by the rounding algorithm, I use an RD design to identify the effect of a higher display rating on local restaurants' advertising spending decisions. I find evidence of a significantly negative effect of display rating on advertising spending for relatively higher-rated (i.e. rated above 3) restaurants. On the other hand, when the display rating is constant, the relationship between local restaurants’ ad spending and average rating is significantly positive. The reason for the opposite advertising responses to display rating and to average rating is the capacity limit of local businesses.
Delay in Platform Adoption (with Marc Rysman)
Our paper proposes a new explanation for adoption failure, or adoption delay, in markets with network effects. In our model, consumers and software providers play a dynamic two-sided adoption game, choosing between two incompatible platforms/technologies. Consumers are allowed to choose to wait in adoption, but firms need to adopt one platform upon entry. We show that, in a parameter space that only has standardization equilibria in a static setting, when we introduce dynamics, there exists a "market split and adoption delay" equilibrium. In this equilibrium, firms split between two platforms, and some consumers choose to wait in period 1 in order to join the turn-out-to-be-dominant platform in period 2. This “split and delay” equilibrium is inefficient since the market would benefit from immediate coordination on one platform or the other. Our model is motivated by the 56K modem market, in which competition between two similar technologies appears to have led to adoption failure, until an industry standard setting organization coordinated the market on an alternative standard.
October, 2015 Jiaxuan Li Department of Economics, Boston University 270 Bay State Road Boston, MA 02215 USA Cell: (609) 937-3822 Email: [email protected] Website: http://people.bu.edu/jxli
Education Ph.D. in Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Essays on Dynamic Demand, Pricing and Investment Dissertation Committee: Marc Rysman, Hiroaki Kaido, Albert Ma and Francesco Decarolis M.A. in Political Economy, Boston University, Boston MA, 2013 B.A. in Economics and Statistics, Peking University, Beijing China, 2010
Fields of Interest Industrial Organization, Applied Econometrics
Teaching Experience Recitation Instructor, Statistics for Economists (for M.A.), Boston University, Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow, Intermediate Microeconomics Analysis (for Undergrad), Boston University, Fall 2011 & Fall 2012 Teaching Fellow, Market Structure and Industrial Organization (for M.A.), Boston University, Fall 2012 Teaching Fellow, Microeconomics (for M.A.), Boston University, Spring 2012
Fellowships and Awards Travel Grant, Department of Economics, Boston University, August 2015 Special Research Fellowship, Boston University, Fall 2013 and Spring 2015 Teaching Fellowship, Boston University, Fall 2011, Spring 2012, Fall 2012, and Fall 2014 Dean’s Fellowship, Boston University, 2010 - 2015 Summer Funding, Boston University, 2010-2014
Work Experience Research Assistant for Prof. Hiroaki Kaido, Boston University, Summer 2015 - Present Research Assistant for Prof. Marc Rysman, Boston University, Spring 2014 Research Assistant for Prof. Francesco Decarolis, Boston University, Spring 2013
Working Papers "Gateway Products in the DSLR Camera Market: Dynamic Demand, Consumer Learning and Switching Costs" (Job Market Paper), Sep 2015. "Moment Inequalities in the Context of Simulated and Predicted Variables" (with Hiroaki Kaido and Marc Rysman), Oct 2015.
Work in Progress "Time to Obtain Innovation and Dynamic R&D Investment", Oct 2012. Jiaxuan Li
Conferences and External Presentations 42nd EARIE Annual Conference, Munich, Germany, August 2015 10th Annual Economics Graduate Student Conference, Washington U. in St. Louis, October 2015
Referee Experience: The RAND Journal of Economics
Technical Skills: Matlab, Gauss, STATA, AMPL, Python, LATEX Languages: English (Proficient); Chinese (Native) Citizenship: China F-1
References
Professor Marc Rysman Professor Hiroaki Kaido Department of Economics Department of Economics Boston University Boston University 270 Bay State Road 270 Bay State Road Boston MA 02215 USA Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-353-3086 Phone: +1-617-358-5924 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
Professor Ching-To Albert Ma Professor Francesco Decarolis Department of Economics Department of Economics Boston University Boston University 270 Bay State Road 270 Bay State Road Boston MA 02215 USA Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-353-4010 Phone: +1-617-353-4535 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
Oct 2015 Jiaxuan Li
Gateway Products in the DSLR Camera Market: Dynamic Demand, Consumer Learning and Switching Costs (Job Market Paper) In markets of new technology goods, consumers face uncertainty about their own usage/valuation of the products. In addition, consumers typically invest in complementary goods using the acquired products, making it costly to switch to another brand when repurchasing. Using a rich dataset that tracks individual DSLR camera ownership history, I find that low-end DSLR cameras are gateway products that most consumers buy initially. In addition, consumers who repurchase are more likely to buy high-end DSLR cameras from the same brand as initial purchases. Motivated by the observed data patterns, I design a framework to analyze how consumers make dynamic choices when they need to learn about their own preferences and there is a cost of switching brands. The estimation reveals that “enthusiastic” and “neutral” consumers differ greatly in their unobserved valuation for using advanced cameras ex-post. Enthusiastic consumers who have already learned their types are likely to repurchase high-end DSLR cameras; their repurchases are crucial for the sales of high-end DSLR cameras. The estimated model implies a dynamic complementary relationship between high-end and low-end products that are produced by the same firm. Supply-side simulations imply that firms have incentives to invest in customer base using low-end products and to harvest the resolved uncertainty of valuation and switching costs using high-end products.
Moment Inequalities in the Context of Simulated and Predicted Variables (with Hiroaki Kaido and Marc Rysman) This paper explores the effects of simulations on the performance of inference methods based on moment inequalities. Commonly used confidence sets for parameters are level sets of criterion functions whose boundary points depend on sample moments in a non-differentiable manner. Due to this non-differentiability, simulation errors can affect the performance of inference in non-standard ways. In particular, a (first-order) bias due to the simulation errors may remain in the estimated boundary of the confidence set. We demonstrate, through Monte Carlo experiments, that simulation errors can significantly reduce the coverage probabilities of confidence sets in small samples. The size distortion is particularly severe when the number of inequality restrictions is large. These results highlight the danger of ignoring the sampling variations due to the simulation errors in moment inequality models. We further investigate the performance of inference methods that properly correct for these variations.
Time to Obtain Innovation and Dynamic R&D Investment This paper explores the nature of uncertainty in innovation production by quantifying the impact of time-to-obtain-innovation on firms’ R&D investment. Utilizing a rich dataset that tracks Spanish manufacture firms’ R&D activities and innovation outcomes for up to 17 years, I build and estimate a dynamic model of firms’ R&D investment. The model incorporates linkages between knowledge capital stock, innovation and productivity evolution. I find that removing uncertainties in time-to-obtain-innovation encourages R&D investment. MENGMENG LI Department of Economics, Boston University 270 Bay State Road Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: (617) 470-8788 Fax: (617) 353-4449 Email: [email protected] Web site: http://blogs.bu.edu/mengmeng
EDUCATION Ph.D., Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, May 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Empirical Studies in Financial Economics and Labor Economics Main advisor: Jianjun Miao Dissertation Committee: Jianjun Miao, Zhongjun Qu, and Stephen Terry
M.S., Mathematical Finance, Questrom School of Business, Boston University, Boston, MA, 2009
B.A., Dual-degree in Mathematics and Economics, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China, 2008
FIELDS OF INTEREST Financial Economics, Computational Economics, Econometrics, and Labor Economics
WORK EXPERIENCE Consultant, Center for Multicultural Mental Health Research, Cambridge Health Alliance, Harvard Medical School, August 2014-May 2015 Analyst, Boston Merchant Financial, Ltd., Boston, November 2009- April 2010 Intern Analyst, Trudeau & Trudeau Associates, Inc., Boston, June 2009- August 2009 Analyst, Dongxing Securities, Wuhan, China, July 2007- June 2008 Assistant Analyst, Bank of China, Wuhan, China, June 2006 - February 2007
TEACHING EXPERIENCE Teaching Assistant, Intermediate Microeconomics, Department of Economics, Boston University, Spring 2012 Teaching Assistant, Sports Economics, Department of Economics, Boston University, Spring 2012 Teaching Assistant, Sports Economics, Department of Economics, Boston University, Fall 2011 Teaching Assistant, Economic Statistics, Department of Economics, Boston University, Fall 2011
ACADEMIC WORK EXPERIENCE Department Research Assistant for Professor Albert Ma, Department of Economics, Boston University, 2012-2015 Research Assistant for Professor Yanbo Wang, Questrom School of Business, Boston University, Summer 2013
October 2015 1 Mengmeng Li
WORKING PAPERS “Big Data in Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis of the Bitcoin Market,” September 2015. “Examine the Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the Chinese Stock Market and the Second-Board Market,” January 2014. “New thoughts on ‘Power Couples’: Does the Co-location Problem Still Exist,” October 2012. “How Medicare Advantage Has Impacted Mental Health Service Utilization,” (with Benjamin L. Cook, Daniel E. Jimenez, and Darcie DeAngelo, to be submitted at November 2015). “Understanding Provider Prescribing Behaviors after the Black Box Warning for Youth Antidepressant Use,” (with Benjamin L. Cook, Darcie DeAngelo, and Alan Zaslavsky, to be submitted at December 2015).
WORK IN PROGRESS “Use Natural Language Processor on Medical Records to Predict Patients’ Behaviors” “Big Data in Financial Economics: How Google Searches Affect the Stock Market”
FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDS Research Fellowship, Boston University, 2012-2015 Teaching Fellowship, Boston University, 2011-2012 Beta Gamma Sigma Honor Society, Questrom School of Business, Boston University, 2009 First Prize in Mathematics, Study Competition of Institute for Advanced Study, Wuhan University, 2007 Freshman Fellowship, Wuhan University, 2005
LANGUAGES English, Chinese
COMPUTER SKILLS STATA, SAS, R, Python, MATLAB, C/C++, Mathematica, Microsoft Office
DATABASE API, IPUMS, Bloomberg, DataStream, Compustat, CRSP
OTHER CFA Candidate, Bloomberg Certificate Program
CITIZENSHIP/VISA: U.S. Permanent Resident
REFERENCES
Jianjun Miao Zhongjun Qu Stephen Terry Professor Associate Professor Assistance Professor Department of Economics Department of Economics Department of Economics Boston University Boston University Boston University Phone: (617) 353-6675 Phone: (617) 358-5921 Phone: (757) 754-3514 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
October 2015 2 MENGMENG LI
Big Data in Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis of the Bitcoin Market (Job Market Paper)
Widely investors are piling into digital currency like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, with nearly one fourth of the entire global population using social media, its impacts on the Bitcoin market become more and more prominent. In this paper, I have investigated the Bitcoin market’s efficiency by examining the correlation between social media information (Twitter) and Bitcoin returns. Firstly I have analyzed Twitter sentiments for more than 1.3 million bitcoin-related tweets between January 2014 and October 2014 using text data mining methods, as well as the Bitcoin market instruments. Further, using Bivariate Granger Causality analysis, I have validated that the sentiment information and the Bitcoin returns are greatly affected in the short term. Moreover, I have testified that the ARIMA Model could better forecast Bitcoin future returns with the sentiment information. In the end I also implement a portfolio management strategy based on the predicted values, which could yield an annual return around 20% for investors.
Examine the Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the Chinese Stock Market and the Second-Board Market
Chinese stock market is on an incredible mystery run. With this world-beating stock market attracting an unprecedented number of attentions, one of the most interesting questions would be: “if there any “bubble” existed in Chinese stock market?” In this paper, I use serval extended right-tailed ADF tests to examine the exuberance of a long weekly Chinese stock market data from 1990 to 2013. And I have successfully detected explosive behaviors and found the dates of their rising and burst. Moreover, I have also investigated the second-board market (Growth Enterprises Market) with similar methods. However there was not enough evidence to show the existence of any exuberance.
New Thoughts on “Power Couples”: Does the Co-location Problem Still Exist
College educated couples were increasing located in large metropolitan areas from 1940 to 1990. However the increase had been gradually diminished after 1990. In this paper, I have used multinomial logit models and a triple difference model to analyze those trends. From 1940 to 1990, the urbanization of the college educated couples was caused primarily by the growth of dual career households and the resulting severity of the co-location problem. Meanwhile I have argued that less college educated couples moved to large cities because the co-location effect faded away after 1990. Compared with previous studies, I have also proposed a more accurate method to measure the “coincidental couple” in the triple difference model.
Understanding Provider Prescribing Behaviors after the Black Box Warning for Youth Antidepressant Use (with Benjamin, L. Cook, Darcie Deangelo, and Alan Zaslavsky)
In 2004, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a black-box warning on antidepressants indicating that they were associated with an increased risk of suicidal thinking, feeling and behavior in young people. According to previous studies, the black-box warning was associated with a “reduction in disparities” in antidepressant use. In this paper, we have investigated the provider factors’ contributions on differential risk diffusion through several multilevel regression models.
How Medicare Advantage Has Impacted Mental Health Service Utilization (with Benjamin, L. Cook, Daniel E. Jimenez, and Darcie Deangelo)
The purpose of this study is to identify the impact of Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollment on any use of mental health care, mental health care expenditures, and mental health care quality using 2004-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data (Panels 9-15). To address endogeneity of plan enrollment, we also estimate a model replacing Medicare Managed Care enrollment with MA state penetration rates, and explore the use of state penetration rates as an instrument of enrollment in a two stage instrumental variable estimation approach.
October 2015 3 Shuheng Lin 270 Bay State Rd Boston University, Department of Economics Boston, MA, 02215 USA Cell: +1-773-814-5046 Email: [email protected] Website: http://people.bu.edu/slin619
Education Ph.D., Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, May 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Innovation and Productivity Growth with Heterogeneous Firms Dissertation Committee: Stefania Garetto, Jordi Jaumandreu and Marc Rysman M.A., Political Economy, Boston University, Boston MA, May 2012 B.S.Comm., Economics and Finance with a minor in Mathematics, Honors Program, DePaul University, Chicago IL, May 2009
Fields of Interest International Industrial Organization, Applied Econometrics, Labor Economics, Economic Develop- ment
Teaching Experience Lecturer, Modeling Business Decisions, School of Management, Boston University, Spring 2015 Teaching Fellow, Statistics I, Mathematics Department, Boston University, Fall 2014 Co-Head Teaching Fellow, Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis, Economics Department, Boston University, Spring 2014 Teaching Fellow, Introductory Microeconomic Analysis, Economics Department, Boston University, Fall 2013 Instructor, Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis, Economics Department, Boston University, Summer 2012 Teaching Fellow, Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis, Economics Department, Boston University, Fall 2011
Work Experience Research Assistant for Claudia Olivetti, Boston University, Spring 2012 - Spring 2013 Economic Development Research Intern, Lincoln Park Chamber of Commerce, Chicago IL, 2009 Corporate Relations Intern, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Chicago IL, 2009 McCormick Tribune Intern, South-East Asia Center, Chicago IL, 2008-2009 Legal Consulting Intern, Huron Consulting Group, Chicago IL, 2008
Working Papers "The Dynamics of R&D Organization and Productivity Growth" (Job Market Paper). "Innovation and Prices" (with Jordi Jaumandreu), July 2015. "Do Firm-Level Shocks Generate Aggregate Fluctuations?" (with Maria Francisca Perez), July 2014. Shuheng Lin Work in Progress "Trade in Tasks and the Skill Premium" "The Anatomy of China’s Exports to Africa"
Conference and Seminar Presentations 6th Annual ZEW/MaCCI Conference, Mannheim, Germany, June 2015 13th Annual International Industrial Organization Conference, Boston, April 2015 MaCCI Annual Conference, Mannheim, Germany, March 2015 NBER Productivity Lunch Seminar, Boston, September 2014 12th Annual International Industrial Organization Conference, Chicago, April 2014
Fellowships and Awards IED Travel Grant, Boston University, 2014 Funding for a Research Assistant, MA-RA Mentor Program, Boston University, Department of Eco- nomics, Summer 2013, Spring 2014 Teaching Fellowship, Boston University, 2011, 2013 56th Presidential Inauguration Conference Scholar, 2009 DePaul University Centennial Scholarship, 2005 - 2009
Professional Service: Referee for Economics of Innovation and New Technology
Computer Skills: Stata, Matlab, Gauss, LATEXand MS Office Language Skills: Fluent in English, Cantonese and Mandarin Citizenship/Visa: China/F1
References
Professor Stefania Garetto Professor Jordi Jaumandreu Professor Marc Rysman Department of Economics Department of Economics Department of Economics Boston University Boston University Boston University 270 Bay State Rd 270 Bay State Rd 270 Bay State Rd Boston MA 02215 USA Boston MA 02215 USA Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-358-5887 Phone: +1-617-358-5925 Phone: +1-617-358-3086 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
October 2015 2 Shuheng Lin
The Dynamics of R&D Organization and Productivity Growth (Job Market Paper) This paper estimates a dynamic model of firms’ decisions on whether to conduct research in house, with external units or via both modes. Productivity is modeled to evolve endogenously according to firms’ internal and external R&D decisions, and the costs of starting and continuing research differ by R&D mode and they fluctuate each period. Model estimates from a panel of Chinese manufacturing firms show that start-up cost for either mode is significantly more than continuation cost, in house R&D is more effective, costs less to maintain but more to start than external R&D. These estimates are consistent with the observed cross-sectional differences in firm size by research status, and can match the persistence and transition dynamics in R&D modes. Simulation exercises show that continuation cost reduction induces more changes in R&D decisions, but start up cost reduction leads to the most aggregate productivity gain.
Innovation and Prices (Joint with Jordi Jaumandreu) This paper investigates the impact of process and product innovations on prices set by firms using prices reported by a sample of manufacturing firms over 17 years. This impact is modeled as the result of two related processes: how innovation affects productivity and hence marginal cost, and how firms pass changes in cost onto prices. Preliminary estimates of the model show that process innovations increase productivity and thus decrease marginal cost as expected; product innovations often increase productivity by less than process innovations, and sometimes they decrease it. Firms tend to take advantage of process innovations to enlarge markups by not completely passing onto prices the decrease in cost. Product innovations, however, do not affect markups. Overall, absent innovation productivity tends to push down prices at an average pace of .5% a year, but process innovations decrease them by 2% despite enlarging the margins, and prices do not change systematically with product innovations.
Do Firm-Level Shocks Generate Aggregate Fluctuations? (Joint with Maria Francisca Perez) Business cycle fluctuations are often thought to have caused by aggregate shocks, since uncorrelated sector- or firm-level shocks average out in the aggregate due to the law of large numbers. However, a number of studies in recent years show the diversification of idiosyncratic shocks breaks down when sectoral linkages or firm size distributions are highly skewed. This paper empirically examines the contribution of firm-level idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in the US, Germany, Canada, and the UK. We find shocks to large firms are of little relevance in the UK or Canada, but roughly explain one third of output fluctuations in the US and Germany. We argue the ability of the largest firms to transmit shocks is not universal, even when the firm size distribution is highly skewed as the theory suggests. Elisabeth Ruth Perlman 329 Broadway Apartment 1 Cambridge, MA 02139 Phone: (612) 412-4879 Email: [email protected] Website: http://people.bu.edu/perlmane
Education Ph.D. in Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Connecting the Periphery: Three Papers on the Developments Caused by Spreading Transportation and Information Networks in the Nineteenth Century United States Dissertation Committee: Robert A. Margo, Carola Frydman, Daniele Paserman
B.A., Physics and Economics, Carleton College, Northfield, MN, 2006 Diploma, Northfield Mount Hermon School, Northfield, MA, 2002
Fields of Interest Economic History, Innovation, Labor Economics, Urban/Regional Economics
Teaching Experience Instructor, Economic Institutions in Historical Perspective, Department of Economics, Boston University, Spring 2012, Fall 2012 Teaching Fellow, Introductory Microeconomic Analysis, Department of Economics, Boston University, Fall 2010, Fall 2011, Fall 2013 Teaching Fellow, Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis, Department of Economics, Boston University, Spring 2011, Spring 2014 Teaching and Laboratory Assistant, Department of Physics, Carleton College, Fall 2004-Spring 2006 Intermediate Price Theory Tutor, Department of Economics, Carleton College, Fall 2004
Work Experience Senior Research Assistant, Capital Markets, Federal Reserve Board, 2007-2009
Fellowships and Awards Sokoloff Dissertation Fellowship, Economic History Association, Fall 2014-Spring 2015 Dissertation Research Improvement Grant, National Science Foundation, Summer 2014 Economic History Association Data Grant, Spring 2013 Summer Research Grant, Boston University, Summer 2012
Working Papers “ Dense Enough To Be Brilliant: Patents, Urbanization, and Transportation in Nineteenth Century America,” September 2015 (Job Market Paper) “Delivering the Vote: The Political Effect of Free Mail Delivery in Early Twentieth Century America” (with Steven Sprick Schuster), Revise and Resubmit, JEH, August 2015 “The Impact of Railroads on School Enrollment in Nineteenth Century America” (with Jeremy Atack and Robert A. Margo), June 2012 Elisabeth Ruth Perlman
Work in Progress “Free Mail Delivery, Sears, Roebuck & Co., and the Rural General Store” (with Steven Sprick Schuster) “Who Used Postal Savings? A Description of the First Federally Insured Savings Institution” (with Matt Jaremski and Steven Sprick Schuster) “Credit Access and Patenting Activity in Nineteenth Century America” (with Matt Jaremski) “Superstars and Scale: The Effect of Market Size on Top Income Inequality” (with Peter Sims) “Nineteenth Century Moral Laws’ Impact on Innovation” “The Formation and Persistence of Gay San Fransisco” (with Eric Golson and Casey Petroff) “Inventor Migration” (with Nicolas Ziebarth) “Did the Telegraph Have an Independent Impact?” (with Aaron Honsowetz) “Demographic Impact of South African Rails” (with Johan Fourie)
Referee Experience The Journal of Economic History, Research Policy
Conferences and External Presentations 2015: Northeast Universities Development Consortium Conference, Brown University (scheduled); Harvard (scheduled); NBER Productivity Seminar; NBER Summer Institute; Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy at NYU; Australian National University; University of Warwick; Eco- nomic History Association, Nashville TN; World Economic History Congress, Kyoto, Japan
2014: LSE; UC Berkeley; Harvard; NBER Productivity Seminar; Carleton; NBER Summer Institute (poster); Social Science History Association, Toronto, Canada; Western Economic Association In- ternational, Denver CO; Economic and Business History Society, Manchester UK;
2013: Yale Law School; University of Essex; University of Nottingham; Seventh World Congress of Cliometrics, Honolulu, Hawai’i
2012: World Economic History Congress, Stellenbosch, South Africa
2011: UC Irvine; Harvard; University of Warwick
Computer Skills: Stata, Python (NLTK, scikit-learn), ArcGIS, SAS, R, MS Office, and LATEX Citizenship: USA
References
Professor Robert A. Margo Professor Carola Frydman Professor M. Daniele Paserman Department of Economics Department of Economics Department of Economics Boston University Boston University Boston University 270 Bay State Rd 270 Bay State Rd 270 Bay State Rd Boston MA 02215 USA Boston MA 02215 USA Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-353-6819 Phone: +1-847-467-4457 Phone: +1-617-353-5695 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
September 2015 Elisabeth Ruth Perlman
Dense Enough To Be Brilliant: Patents, Urbanization, and Transportation in Nineteenth Century America (Job Market Paper) This paper examines how the location of innovation responds to changes in transportation access and information flows. It focuses on the geographical distribution of patenting in the nineteenth century United States as it evolves in response to improvements in access to transportation. I revisit the Sokoloff (1988) hypothesis that increasing market access, caused by the spread of transportation infrastructure, led to an acceleration of innovation in nineteenth century America. I find that although the overall patenting rate is influenced more by local transportation access than by distant expansions of the transportation network, the rate of patents mentioning newer technologies correlates more to the distant expansions than the local access. Instrumental variable estimates indicate that slightly more than half of the increase in patenting between 1850 and 1870 was caused by the spread of the railroad; over the twenty years following the arrival of the railroad in a county the number of patents per capita doubles. The treatment effect is driven by the area of a county that is close enough make a round trip to transportation within a day, and not by the area further away. Automated analysis of the patents’ text shows that these patents are not likely to be on the cutting edge of technology, but rather on older topics. These results are robust to controls for urbanization and the transportation effect is enhanced by prior urbanization. Much of the treatment effect comes from patenting in counties that had not previously patented; suggesting that new access to existing markets spurs development and leads to integration into broader markets for innovation. Delivering the Vote: The Political Effect of Free Mail Delivery in Early Twentieth Century (with Steven Sprick Schuster), Revise and Resubmit, JEH. The rollout of Rural Free Delivery (RFD) in the early twentieth century dramatically increased the frequency with which rural voters received information. This paper examines the effect of RFD on voters’ and Representatives’ behavior using a panel dataset and instrumental variables. Communities receiving more routes spread their votes to more parties, especially smaller parties. However, we fail to find a significant change in voter turnout. RFD shifted positions taken by Representatives to ones in line with rural communities, including increasing support for pro-temperance and anti-immigration policies. Our results are much stronger in counties with newspapers, supporting the hypothesis that information flows play a crucial role in the political process. The Impact of Railroads on School Enrollment in Nineteenth Century America (with Jeremy Atack and Robert A. Margo) One of the central features of nineteenth century economic development in the United States was the “Transportation Revolution,” in which the speed of moving goods and people increased rapidly, and prices fell, with important economic and social effects. This paper uses a newly created panel data set matching information on transportation infrastructure to individual-level census data for the period 1850 to 1880 to study the impact of the diffusion of the railroad – a key component of the Transportation Revolution – on human capital investment. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that gaining access to rail transportation in a county significantly increases the likelihood of school attendance among children ages 6-16. The treatment effect of the railroad is robust to controls for demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, and location, and is also similar in magnitude for boys and girls. Causal mechanisms are explored, including the effects of rail on the supply of schools through higher property values. Alex Poterack 270 Bay State Rd, Room B02 Boston University, Department of Economics Boston, MA, 02215 USA Cell: (602) 334-7392 Fax: (617) 353-4449 Email: [email protected] Website: http://poterack.weebly.com
Education Ph.D. in Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Compromise, Extremism, and Guilt Main Advisor: Barton Lipman B.A., Behavioral Economics and Public Policy, Gallatin School of Individualized Study, New York University, New York, NY, 2010
Fields of Interest Decision Theory, Behavioral Economics, Health Economics, Industrial Organization
Teaching Experience Instructor, Intermediate Microeconomic Analysis, Department of Economics, Boston University, Fall 2015, Spring 2016 Instructor, Introduction to Health Economics, Department of Economics, Boston University, Summer 2015 Instructor, International Trade, Department of Economics, Boston University, Summers 2013, 2014, 2015 Head Teaching Fellow, Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis, Department of Economics, Boston Uni- versity, Spring 2015 Teaching Fellow, Introductory Microeconomic Analysis, Falls 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, Spring 2014
Work Experience Research Assistant for Barton Lipman, Boston University, 2013 Research Assistant for Ching-To Albert Ma, Boston University, 2012
Professional Service: Officer of the BU Graduate Economics Association Co-Organizer of Decision Theory Reading Group
Computer Skills: Stata, Matlab, MS Office, and LATEX
Citizenship: USA Alex Poterack
Working Papers “The Compromise and Attraction Effects Through Frame Preferences” (Job Market Paper). “Extremist Politics and the Preference for Compromise” (with Benjamin L. Solow)
Work in Progress “The Gift of Indulgence: Giving in the Presence of Guilt” “Data Collector, M.D.: Moral Hazard and the Difficulty of Applying Big Data to Medicine”
References
Professor Barton Lipman Professor Jawwad Noor Department of Economics Department of Economics Boston University Boston University 270 Bay State Rd 270 Bay State Rd Boston MA 02215 USA Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-353-2995 Phone: +1-617-353-4436 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
Professor Dilip Mookherjee Department of Economics Boston University 270 Bay State Rd Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-353-4392 Email: [email protected]
October 2015 Alex Poterack
The Compromise and Attraction Effects Through Frame Preferences (Job Market Paper) The compromise and attraction effects are two of the most robust and well documented violations of WARP, typically arising in the context of goods which can be judged along several distinct attributes. I construct a novel method of representing them by reducing the context of each menu to a “frame”, representing the worst option along each attribute in the menu, and creating a collection of preferences indexed by frames. The preferences behave as though a good’s attractiveness along each attribute is judged relative to the frame with declining marginal utility. I also characterize the properties of a function which represents this collection of preferences. Finally, I develop a list of axioms and a representation theorem which ensure the existence of such a function. Extremist Politics and the Preference for Compromise (with Benjamin L. Solow) We incorporate two well-documented cases of non-standard preferences in a two-dimensional citizen candidate model of plurality elections. We show that the compromise and attraction effects, violations of WARP which we model through frames of reference, generate novel incentives for candidate behavior. Specifically, entry by an extreme candidate may cause a voter’s frame of reference to shift in ways that favor particular moderate candidates. We show that incorporating these preferences generates equilibria where extremist candidates enter plurality elections in order to attractively frame their preferred moderate, even if the extremist has probability zero of obtaining office themselves. DANIEL SCHWAB
33 Inman St Unit 3 Cambridge MA 02139 USA Cell: (617) 230-4663 Email: [email protected] Website: https://sites.google.com/site/danielwschwab/
EDUCATION
Ph.D., Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, May 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Three Essays in Microeconomics Main advisor: Dilip Mookherjee
B.A., Mathematics and Statistics (Magna Cum Laude), Williams College, Williamstown MA, 2002
FIELDS OF INTEREST
Development Economics, Labor Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Instructor, Economic Analysis of Legal Issues, Boston University, Spring 2015 Head Teaching Fellow, Introductory Microeconomics, Spring 2013, Spring 2014 Teaching Fellow, Introductory Microeconomics, Fall 2011, Fall 2012, Fall 2013 Teaching Fellow, Introductory Macroeconomics, Spring 2012
WORK EXPERIENCE
Instructor, Game Theory, Boston University Summer Challenge (high school students), Summer 2013 Leader, training session for teaching fellows, Summer 2014 Research Assistant to Eric Werker, Harvard Business School, 2012 – 2015
FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDS
Gitner Prize for Excellence in Teaching Undergraduates by a Ph.D. Student, Boston University, 2015 Funded Participant, Advanced Graduate Winter Workshop, Bangalore, India, 2015 Special Research Fellowship, Boston University, Fall 2014 Finalist, Best Paper Award, Spring Meeting of Young Economists, Vienna, Austria, 2014 Dean’s Fellowship, Boston University, Fall 2011 – present
CONFERENCES AND PRESENTATIONS
Western Economic Association International, Denver CO, 2014 Spring Meeting of Young Economists, Vienna, Austria, 2014 Northeast Universities Development Consortium Conference, Boston MA, 2014 Advanced Graduate Winter Workshop, Bangalore, India, 2015
DANIEL SCHWAB
WORKING PAPERS
“Employment Protection and the Labor Informality of the Youth: Evidence from India” Job Market Paper, October 2015. “Profits and Economic Development,” (with Eric Werker), revise and resubmit at the Journal of Development Economics, 2015.
WORK IN PROGRESS
“The Political Transfer Problem” (with Faisal Z. Ahmed and Eric Werker) “Determinants of Formal Sector Employment in the Developing World” “Do Firms Benefit from Regulations on their Competitors? District-level evidence from India” “Improving by Importing: The Effect of Import Quality on Export Quality”
COMPUTER SKILLS
Stata, Matlab, Microsoft Office, Latex, Lyx, Shared Computing Cluster
OTHER
Development Reading Group Coordinator
CITIZENSHIP
United States
REFERENCES
Professor Dilip Mookherjee Professor Kevin Lang Economics Department Economics Department Boston University Boston University Phone: (617) 353-4392 Phone: (617) 353-5694 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
Professor Sam Bazzi Professor Eric Werker Economics Department Beedie School of Business Boston University Simon Fraser University Phone: (617) 353-6150 Phone: (778) 782-7725 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
October 2015 2 DANIEL SCHWAB
Employment Protection and the Labor Informality of the Youth: Evidence from India (Job Market Paper)
India's employment protection legislation (EPL) is among the strictest in the world. In this paper, I demonstrate an unintended consequence: EPL shifts formal sector jobs from young workers to older workers. The identification strategy relies on heterogeneity between manufacturing sectors, and is motivated by Rajan and Zingales (1998). I argue that the impact of EPL is strongest in those manufacturing sectors where Indian employers would like to fire workers, proxied by the involuntary separation rate in the United States or Latin America. Finally, I present suggestive evidence that EPL reduces plant-level total factor productivity, and that the shift in jobs from young to old is an imporant channel.
Profits and Economic Development (with Eric Werker)
Are rents, or excess profits, good for development? Using industry-level manufacturing data, this paper demonstrates a negative effect of rents, measured by the mark-up ratio, on productivity growth. The negative effect is strongest in poor countries, suggesting that high profits stymie economic development rather than enable it. Consistent with the rent-seeking mechanism of our model, we find that high rents are associated with a slower reduction in tariffs. A country's average mark-up in manufacturing is a strong negative predictor of future economic growth, indicating that we may be measuring a phenomenon of the broader business environment.
The Political Transfer Problem (with Faisal Z. Ahmed and Eric Werker)
Abstract to be added
October 2015 3
YAO SHU 270 Bay State Road Boston MA 02215 USA Cell: (914) 414-2820 Fax: (617) 353-4449 Email: [email protected] Web site: http://blogs.bu.edu/dianashu
EDUCATION
Ph.D., Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, May 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Learning, Favoritism and Incentive Provision within Organizations Main advisor: Andrew Newman
B.S., Applied Mathematics (First Class Honors), National University of Singapore, Singapore, 2010
FIELDS OF INTEREST
Organizational Economics, Labor Economics, Microeconomic Theory
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Fellow, Microeconomic Theory (Masters Level), Department of Economics, Boston University, Fall 2014 Teaching Assistant, Advanced Microeconomic Theory I and II (Ph.D. Level), Department of Economics, Boston University, Spring 2014, Fall 2013, Spring 2013, Fall 2012
WORK EXPERIENCE
Research Assistant, Professor Kevin Lang, Department of Economics, Boston University, Summer 2013 Research Assistant, Professor Larry G. Epstein, Department of Economics, Boston University, Summer 2012
FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDS
Dean’s Fellow, Boston University, Fall 2010-Spring 2015 Dean’s List, National University of Singapore, Fall 2006-Fall 2010
October 2015 Yao Shu
WORKING PAPERS
“What if Managers Are Not Impartial? The Effect of Favoritism and Influence on Incentive Design and Employee Effort,” October 2015. “Testing Asymmetric Learning with Wage Data,” October 2015.
WORK IN PROGRESS
“Multi-lateral Relational Contracts and the Efficiency of Long Term Relationships” “A Human Capital Based Theory of the Firm”
COMPUTER SKILLS: STATA, MATLAB, LaTex
CITIZENSHIP/VISA: P.R.China/F1
REFERENCES
Professor Andrew F. Professor Kevin Professor Michael Newman Lang Manove Department of Economics Department of Economics Department of Economics Boston University Boston University Boston University Phone: (617) 358-4352 Phone: (617) 353-5694 Phone: (617) 353-3299 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
October 2015 2
YAO SHU
What if Managers Are Not Impartial? The Effect of Favoritism and Influence on Incentive Design and Employee Effort (Job Market Paper)
This article considers the design and effectiveness of incentive systems when managers hold private subjective performance evaluations and are subject to favoritism and influence. When manager's favoritism cannot be effectively monitored, monetary rewards based on subjective evaluations fail to induce productive effort, while promotion-based reward system remains effective. Practice of favoritism is restrained under the promotion-based scheme, as rewards are tied to assignment and misallocation is costly to managers. Under the optimal promotion-based reward system, the level of productive effort induced is lower than the first best and decreases as employees stay in the same position for longer. Career stagnation is costly to the firm as employees with higher position-specific seniority supplies less effort. We test the prediction using twenty years of personnel records from a large firm and find that effort indeed decreases as employees stay in the same position for longer.
Testing Asymmetric Employer Learning using Wage Data
It is well recognized that employers learn the ability of employees though their performances over time. Although it seems intuitive that incumbent employers should observe more precise performance signals compared to the outside market (asymmetric learning), empirical evidence on asymmetric learning is limited and inconclusive. Existing literature has also confined the modelling of asymmetric learning to 2-periods only due to theoretical difficulties from complicated gaming interactions. In this paper, I propose a new way to model asymmetric learning for multi-periods, and derive testable implications of the model on wage patterns of workers. I then test the model predictions using NLSY97 data. The empirical results are largely consistent with symmetric learning, and show very weak evidence of asymmetric learning in the early years of employment.
Multi-lateral Relational Contracts and the Efficiency of Long Term Relationships
A standard feature of bi-lateral relational contracts is that, when parties are risk neutral, the efficiency of relationships depends on the value of joint surplus only. Changes in bargaining power affects the split of surplus only but not the sustainability of the relationship. In reality, however, long-term relationships are likely to involve more than two parties. In this paper, we model the multi-lateral relational contract involving a chain of three parties and study the performance of the multi-lateral relationship. In contrary to the result under bi-lateral relationship, sustainability of the multi-lateral relationship is no longer invariant to changes in bargaining power. We characterize how variations in bargaining power changes the stability of long term relationships. The results of this paper can potentially be tested with data on long term trade dealings.
October 2015 Benjamin L. Solow 270 Bay State Rd, Room B03A Boston University, Department of Economics Boston, MA, 02215 USA Cell: (617) 733-4987 Email: [email protected] Website: http://sites.google.com/site/bensolow
Education Ph.D. in Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Aggregate Uncertainty, Framing Effects, and Candidate Entry Dissertation Committee: Barton Lipman, Laurent Bouton, and Juan Ortner Laurea Magistralis, Economics, (Summa Cum Laude), Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy, 2010 B.S., Economics and Political Science, Honors Program, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, 2008
Fields of Interest Political Economy, Industrial Organization, Behavioral Economics, Microeconomic Theory
Fellowships and Awards Special Research Fellowship, Boston University, 2015 Special Research Fellowship, Boston University, 2014 College of Arts and Sciences Outstanding Teaching Fellow Award, Boston University, 2014 Summer Research Grant, Boston University, 2013 LMEC Scholarship, Università di Bologna, 2008 and 2009 Howard Bowen Memorial Scholarship, University of Iowa, 2008 Excellence in Undergraduate Research Award for Social Sciences, University of Iowa, 2007 Department of Economics Faculty Recognition Award, University of Iowa, 2007
Work Experience Research Assistant for Shulamit Kahn, Boston University, 2012 Research Assistant for Bob Triest and Giovanni Olivei, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 2009
Teaching Experience Instructor, Empirical Economics, Department of Economics, Boston University, Fall 2015. Teaching Fellow, Introductory Microeconomic Analysis, Department of Economics, Boston University, Fall 2011, Fall 2014. Head Teaching Fellow, Introductory Microeconomic Analysis and Introductory Macroeconomic Anal- ysis, Department of Economics, Boston University, Fall 2013. Instructor, Market Structure and Economic Performance, Department of Economics, Boston University, Spring 2013, Summer 2015. Head Teaching Fellow, Introductory Microeconomic Analysis, Department of Economics, Boston Uni- versity, Fall 2012. Teaching Fellow, Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis, Department of Economics, Boston University, Spring 2012. Teaching Assistant, International Corporate Governance, Harvard University, Summer 2011. Benjamin L. Solow
Publications Solow, BL, Solow, JL, and Walker, TB, 2011. “Moving On Up: The Rooney Rule and Minority Hiring in the NFL", Labour Economics 18.3:332-337.
Working Papers “Aggregate Uncertainty in Runoff Elections and Open Primaries", October, 2015. “Candidate Entry in Non-Majority Runoff Elections", October, 2015. “Extremist Politics and the Preference for Compromise" (joint with Alex Poterack), November, 2015.
Work in Progress “Public Goods Provision and Induced Risk Aversion" “The Compromise and Attraction Effects: Evidence from Off-Broadway Theater" (joint with Pietro Ortoleva) “Gerrymandering and Political Polarization" “Strategic Voting in the Citizen-Candidate Model" (joint with Laurent Bouton and Micael Castanheira)
Conferences and External Presentations Georgetown Center for Economic Research Biennial Conference, May, 2015 Eastern Economics Association Annual Meeting, New York City, March, 2015 Lindau Nobel Laureates Meeting on Economic Sciences, Lindau, August, 2014 Western Economics Association Annual Meeting, Denver, June, 2014 Warwick Economics PhD Conference, Coventry, March, 2014 Western Economics Association Annual Meeting, Seattle, June, 2008
Professional Service: Co-Organizer of Political Economy Reading Group; Officer of the BU Graduate Economics Association
Computer Skills: Stata, Matlab, MS Office, and LATEX Citizenship: USA References Professor Barton Lipman Professor Laurent Bouton Department of Economics Department of Economics Boston University Georgetown University 270 Bay State Rd Intercultural Center 580 Boston MA 02215 USA 37th and O Streets, N.W. Phone: +1-617-353-2995 Washington D.C. 20057 Email: [email protected] Phone: +1-202-687-6109 Email: [email protected]
Professor Juan Ortner Department of Economics Boston University 270 Bay State Rd Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-353-6323 Email: [email protected]
October 2015 Benjamin L. Solow
Aggregate Uncertainty in Runoff Elections and Open Primaries (Job Market Paper) In this paper I develop a model of strategic entry by candidates for office in runoff elections and blanket primaries. The main contribution of the paper is that I study candidate behavior under aggregate uncertainty, i.e. candidates are unsure of the distribution of voter preferences in the electorate. The set of equilibria with three candidates expands and equilibrium configurations become more diverse after adding aggregate uncertainty, providing a theoretical basis for Duverger’s Hypothesis, the claim that runoffs encourage entry by more than two candidates. One traditional equilibrium where candidates share the same location as the median voter is shown not to exist, and highly differentiated two candidate equilibria are shown to exist, casting doubt on the belief that runoffs promote policy moderation. Three candidate equilibria also predict three empirical phenomena that are unexplained by existing models: some candidates who reach the second round of the election receive fewer votes than they receive in the first round (an apparent violation of the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference), electoral "reversals," where candidates who obtain a plurality in the first round do not necessarily win in the second round, and candidates who lose with certainty still choose to run. In many cases, these sure losers are Condorcet winners and a Condorcet loser obtains office with positive probability. In blanket primaries, sure loser equilibria and many two candidate equilibria disappear. Candidate Entry in Non-Majority Runoff Elections I develop a model of strategic entry by candidates for office in non-majority runoff elections. The main contribution of the paper is that I incorporate the observed differences in thresholds for first-round victory in a citizen-candidate model of runoff elections. The set of equilibria varies substantially with the threshold, indicating that the 50 percent threshold used in most models is not an innocuous assumption. Three main results arise. First, as the threshold decreases from 50 percent, the set of equilibria immediately contains equilibria that were thought to exist only under plurality rule, whereas as the threshold increases from 50 percent, there is no change in the set of equilibria. Second, there are important discontinuities in the set of equilibria as the threshold crosses key values of one half and one third. One such result is that equilibria where all candidates share the position of the median voter disappear for any threshold under one half. Finally, for any threshold under one half, there exist equilibria where a candidate who loses with certainty still chooses to run. These sure losers are Condorcet winners and, in these equilibria, Condorcet losers obtain office with positive probability. Extremist Politics and the Preference for Compromise (joint with Alex Poterack) We incorporate two well-documented cases of non-standard preferences in a two-dimensional citizen candidate model of plurality elections. We show that the compromise and attraction effects, violations of WARP which we model through frames of reference, generate novel incentives for candidate behavior. Specifically, entry by an extreme candidate may cause a voter’s frame of reference to shift in ways that favor particular moderate candidates. We show that incorporating these preferences generates equilibria where extremist candidates enter plurality elections in order to attractively frame their preferred moderate, even if the extremist has probability zero of obtaining office themselves. Patricio Toro Venegas 270 Bay State Rd Boston University, Department of Economics Boston, MA, 02215 USA Cell: (617) 510-8366 Email: [email protected] Website: http://blogs.bu.edu/ptoro
Education Ph.D. in Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Essays on the Real Effects of Financial Frictions Dissertation Committee: Daniele Paserman, Simon Gilchrist and Adam Guren M.A. in Economics (Financial Economics) Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile, 2005 Ingeniero Comercial (B.A. Economics) Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile, 2005
Fields of Interest Macroeconomics, Financial Economics, Labor Economics
Fellowships and Awards Graduate Scholarship, Boston University, 2011 - 2015 Summer Research Grant, Boston University, 2014 Beca Chile Doctorado, Conicyt, 2010 Matrícula de Honor, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, 1999
Work Experience Visiting Program, Central Bank of Chile, Summer 2013 Visiting Program, Central Bank of Chile, Summer 2011 Financial Policy Advisor to Andrés Velasco, Minister of Finance and Alejandro Micco, Ministry of Finance, Chile, 2006-2010 Junior Economist, Santander Chile, Research Division, Chile, 2005-2006 Founder, Sushi Time, Chile, 2004-2008 Working Papers "Financing Firing and Hiring: the Effects of Credit Supply Shocks on Labor Demand and Productivity" (Job Market Paper)
Work in Progress "Standing on the shoulders of Governments: a positive bank lending shock for SME’s" (with William Mullins)
Teaching Experience Teaching Fellow, Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis, Department of Economics, Boston University, 2012-2015 Instructor, Introductory Economics, Department of Economics, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, 2007-2008 Patricio Toro Venegas
Teaching Fellow, Microeconomics I, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, 2004 Teaching Fellow, Industrial Organization, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, 2001-2003 Teaching Fellow, Industrial Organization, Universidad Finis Terrae, 2002
Languages: English (fluent), Spanish (native), Italian (fluent)
Computer Skills: Stata, Matlab, LATEX Citizenship-Visa: Chile-F1
References
Daniele Paserman Simon Gilchrist Professor Professor Department of Economics Department of Economicst Boston University Boston University 270 Bay State Rd 270 Bay State Rd Boston MA 02215 USA Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-358-5695 Phone: +1-617-353-6824 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
Adam Guren Assistant Professor Department of Economics Boston University 270 Bay State Rd Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-353-4534 Email: [email protected]
October 2015 Patricio Toro Venegas
Financing Firing and Hiring: the Effects of Credit Supply Shocks on Labor Demand and Productivity (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates how and why credit supply shocks during recessions can have persistent effects on labor productivity at the firm level. It adds to the literature by (1) showing that credit supply shocks have persistent effects on labor productivity and (2) by showing how firms use credit to finance employment adjustments during the recession: firms with better access to credit can churn more workers because they can fund search and dismissal costs. I find that expanding firms churn more workers to fill vacancies and grow faster, while shrinking firms use credit to replace low-quality matches and improve productivity. I use a new matched employer-employee panel of Chilean firms that also includes firm-bank lending relationships. A major bank capital injection during the 2008-09 crisis allows the identification of a positive credit supply shock at the firm level. Standing on the shoulder of Governments: a positive bank lending shock to SME’s (with William Mullins) Contractions in bank lending to firms are increasingly well understood but expansions remain understudied. Moreover, expanding Small and Medium Enterprises’ (SMEs) access to bank loans is a frequent policy goal around the world because of SMEs’ political popularity and their role in the economy. This paper studies a Government partial credit guarantee scheme for bank loans to SMEs using a regression discontinuity design around the threshold for eligibility. We use a new matched employer-employee panel of Chilean firms that also includes firm-bank lending and tax data. We find that the program has a large positive effect on firms’ total borrowing, and the effect is persistent. Moreover, firms that obtain bank loans through this scheme purchase more inputs and have higher sales following the loan. Finally, these firms materially increase their hiring of workers, initially via temporary contracts, and then disproportionately retain these workers on indefinite contracts when the temporary contracts expire.
EI YANG 270 Bay State Road Boston MA 02215 USA Cell: (347) 882-9922 Fax: (617) 353-4449 Email: [email protected] Web site: http://blogs.bu.edu/eiyang/
EDUCATION Ph.D., Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Essays on Financial Friction, Distortions and Development Dynamics Main Advisor: Simon Gilchrist Dissertation Committee: Simon Gilchrist, Jianjun Miao, Robert G. King
M.A., Economics, New York University, New York NY, 2010
B.A.(Honors), Economics and Mathematics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China, 2008
FIELDS OF INTEREST Macroeconomics, Computational Economics, Development Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE Teaching Fellow, Introductory Macroeconomics, Department of Economics, Boston University, Spring 2015 Teaching Fellow, Macro Theory II (first year Ph.D core), Department of Economics, Boston University, Spring 2013, Spring 2014 Teaching Fellow, Macro Theory I (first year Ph.D core), Department of Economics, Boston University, Fall 2012, Fall 2013 Teaching Assistant, Intermediate Macroeconomics, Department of Economics, Boston University, Fall 2011, Spring 2012
WORK EXPERIENCE Research Assistant, Department of Economics, Professor Robert G. King, Fall 2014
FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDS Teaching Fellowship, Boston University, 2011-2015 Outstanding Graduate of Renmin University of China, 2008 Excellent Student Award, Renmin University of China, 2004-2008 The Credit Scholarship of Hong Kong, Renmin University of China, 2007
Oct 15, 2015 Ei Yang
WORKING PAPERS “The Persistence of Development Dynamics: Financial Frictions and Mobility Distortions” (Job Market Paper), October 2015. “The Welfare Analysis of Depressed Migrant Wage in China: A Dynamic View”, November 2014. “Intergeneration Mobility, Inequality and Urbanization”, October 2013.
WORKS IN PROGRESS “Idiosyncratic Unemployment Risk, Precautionary Saving, and Business Cycles” (with Daeha Cho), December 2014 “Misallocation and Development Dynamics: the Role of Rural-Urban Migration” “Constrained Efficiency in an Incomplete Economy with Endogenous Job Risk”
LANGUAGES Fluent in English, Native in Chinese (Mandarin)
COMPUTER SKILLS: MATLAB, Mathematica, STATA, LaTex, Lyx, Microsoft Office
CITIZENSHIP/VISA: China/F1
REFERENCES
Professor Professor Professor Simon Gilchrist Jianjun Miao Robert G. King Department of Economics Department of Economics Department of Economics Boston University Boston University Boston University Phone: (617) 353-6824 Phone: (617) 353-6675 Phone: (617) 353-5941 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
Oct 15, 2015
EI YANG
The Persistence of Development Dynamics: Financial Frictions and Mobility Distortions (Job Market Paper) Successful economic reforms produce long-lasting transitional dynamics for developing countries. This paper analyzes how financial frictions and mobility distortions generate the persistence of the post-reform development dynamics. I build a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, occupation choice and rural-urban migration, and I calibrate it to China. The mobility distortion is an occupation distortion and it restricts a proportion of agents to the low productive sector. A removal of distortions triggers the transition of the economy. The transitional path from calibration displays slow convergence. It shows persistent increases in output, productivity and urbanization, mimicking the patterns observed in data. The mobility distortion generates the slow convergence by creating more high-ability but poor agents. After the reform removes the distortions, it takes a long time for these agents to become entrepreneurs and reach their efficient scales due to the financial friction. Compared with the literature using tax distortions, the economy with mobility distortions generates slower convergence. The model also generates the rural-urban migration, which contributes to the persistence by providing high-ability workers and potential entrepreneurs after the reform.
Idiosyncratic Unemployment Risk, Precautionary Saving, and Business Cycles (with Daeha Cho) We put forward a model that merges the incomplete asset market, labor market frictions, and the nominal rigidity in price setting to study the business cycle implications of precautionary savings induced by idiosyncratic unemployment risks. First, we find that the capital utilization is the key to achieving comovement responses between consumption, investment, and vacancies to an unemployment risk shock. Second, precautionary savings amplify the initial adverse shock through the aggregate demand channel, and decreasing vacancy postings from firms create further idiosyncratic unemployment risks. Third, with the capital utilization, a fall in the investment strengthens the above feedback loop.
The Welfare Analysis of Depressed Migrant Wage in China: a Dynamic View Empirical studies have documented depressed migrant wages in China. I build a continuous-time heterogeneous-agent model with financial frictions and rural-urban migration to evaluate its impact on the total output and the consumption along the transitional path. The depressed migrant wage per se attracts fewer migrant workers, and it lowers the migrants’ consumption and aggregate output. However, it encourages urban entrepreneurs to substitute capital with labor, reducing the impact of financial frictions. The net effect depends on the stage of development. It benefits the economy initially by speeding up reallocation in the urban sector. This leads to faster urban TFP improvement and capital accumulation. In the later stage, the low consumption effect dominates, which indicates that policy intervention can improve the consumption and the output.
Intergenerational Mobility, Inequality and Urbanization The intergenerational income mobility and Gini coefficient for family income both increase to high levels since China began economic reform in 1978. I propose a theoretical overlapping generation model with missing capital market and rural-urban migration to explain this moving up along the “Great Gatsby curve.” After the economic reform happens, migrant workers enter the low skill jobs. The increasing wage gap pushes urban workers to invest more in human capital and switch to the high skill jobs. The missing of capital market strengthens the job division. Whether this process continues or not depends on the cost of education. If education cost decreases, the offsprings of migrant workers have more chances to enter the high skill jobs. As agents are heterogeneous in learning ability, the education subsidy achieves a better outcome than a direct redistribution policy.
Oct 15, 2015
GUIHAI ZHAO 8350 Greensboro Drive #716 McLean VA 22102 Cell: (617) 800-6158 Fax: (617) 353-4449 Email: [email protected] Web site: http://blogs.bu.edu/maxzhao/
EDUCATION Ph.D., Economics, Boston University, Boston MA, May 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Confidence, Bond/Equity Risks, and Monetary Policy Dissertation Committee: Larry Epstein (Co-Chair), Francois Gourio (Co-Chair), Simon Gilchrist, and Jianjun Miao
M.A., Economics, University at Albany-SUNY, NY, 2009
B.S., Information System, Beijing Information Technology Institute, Beijing China
FIELDS OF INTEREST Asset Pricing, Monetary Economics, and Portfolio Choice
TEACHING EXPERIENCE Teaching Fellow, Macroeconomics, Department of Economics, Boston University, Spring 2013 Teaching Assistant, Portfolio Theory, Department of Finance, Boston University, Fall 2011 Teaching Assistant, Economics of Risk and Uncertainty, Department of Economics, Boston University, Spring 2012 Teaching Assistant, Introduction to Econometrics, Undergraduate Department of Economics, Boston University, Fall 2012 Teaching Assistant, Mathematical Economics, Department of Economics, Boston University, Spring 2011
WORK EXPERIENCE Research Assistant: Professor Marcel Rindisbacher, Department of Finance, Boston University, 2012 Professor Larry Epstein, Department of Economics, Boston University, 2011, 2014 Non-academic experience: Quantitative Analyst - Market Risk, Capital One, 2015 Software Engineer at Founder Electronics System Engineer at IBM (China)
FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDS Summer Research Grant, Department of Economics, Boston University, Summer 2012, Summer 2013 Teaching Scholarship, Department of Economics, Boston University, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 Best Performance Award on First Year Comprehensive Exams, University at Albany-SUNY, 2007
Guihai Zhao
WORKING PAPERS “Confidence, Bond Risks, and Equity Returns,” July 2015 R&R at Journal of Financial Economics “Learning from Monetary Shocks and Asset Returns” (with Simon Gilchrist), October 2015 “Confidence, Asset Returns, and Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model,” December 2014
WORK IN PROGRESS “Ambiguity Yields, Bond Yields, and Dividend Yields” October 2015 “Portfolio Choice under Constant and Time Varying Ambiguity” “Central Bank Performance and Cross Country Stock Returns”
CONFERENCES AND PRESENTATIONS Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, May 2013 BU/BC Green Line Macro Meeting, April 2013
LANGUAGES Fluent in English, Native in Chinese
COMPUTER SKILLS: MATLAB, SAS, VBA, C++
CITIZENSHIP: China
PROFESSIONAL AFFILIATIONS The Society for Financial Studies, PhD Student Invitation to the Macro Finance Society VI Workshop
REFERENCES
Professor Larry Epstein Francois Gourio Department of Economics Economic Research Boston University Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Phone: (617) 353-4142 Phone: (312) 322-5627 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
Professor Simon Gilchrist Professor Jianjun Miao Department of Economics Department of Economics Boston University Boston University Phone: (617) 353-6824 Phone: (617) 353-6675 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
October 2015 2
GUIHAI ZHAO
Confidence, Bond Risks, and Equity Returns We show that investor confidence (size of ambiguity) about future consumption growth is driven by past consumption growth and inflation. The impact of inflation on confidence has moved considerably over time and switched on average from negative to positive in 1997. Motivated by this evidence, we develop and estimate a model in which the confidence process has discrete regime shifts, and find that the time-varying impacts of inflation on confidence enables the model to match the bond risks over different subperiods. The model can also account for stock and bond return predictability, correlation between price-dividend ratios and inflation, among others.
Learning from Monetary Shocks and Asset Returns (joint with Simon Gilchrist) In an otherwise standard New Keynesian model, we assume that the monetary authority has more information about TFP growth than the private sector. Consequently, agents in the private sector cannot fully distinguish monetary shocks from changes in TFP growth rates when the monetary authority sets interest rate according to a Taylor rule. In this environment, agents update their beliefs using a Kalman Filter. Following an expansionary monetary policy shock, agent expects a higher TFP growth rate which causes stock returns, nominal and real bond yields, output growth, labor and inflation to rise simultaneously. A calibrated version of the model also does well at matching the empirical reactions of stock and bond markets to monetary shocks. Monetary shocks work like noise shocks and generate business cycle comovements among key macro variables.
Confidence, Asset Returns, and Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian The volatility of macroeconomic and financial variables has exhibited a high degree of time variation in the data, and the conditional volatility of inflation is positively correlated with future volatility of other macroeconomic and financial variables. Instead of assuming stochastic volatility exogenously, this paper proposes a novel model that generates these features endogenously in a simple New Keynesian framework. The model can generate upward sloping yield curves and positive correlation between inflation and dividend yields. I assume that agents are ambiguity averse, and that the amount of ambiguity is affected by the past performance of the central bank. If the central bank was unable to control inflation and output recently, the agent becomes more ambiguous about technology growth and the ambiguity process becomes more volatile, thus (a) output, consumption, dividend yields, and stock returns fall, (b) dividend yield rises, and (c) the volatility rises. The first two effects imply a positive premium for long term bond relative to short term bond. Time-varying volatility in confidence implies time-varying volatility in macroeconomic and financial variables.
October 2015 FAN ZHUO 270 Bay State Road, Room B11 Department of Economics Boston University Boston MA 02215 USA Cell: +1-410-920-4614 Email: [email protected] Website: people.bu.edu/zhuo
EDUCATION Ph.D., Economics, Boston University, Boston, MA, May 2016 (expected) Dissertation Title: Essays on Regime Switching and DSGE Models with Applications to U.S. Business Cycle Dissertation Committee: Zhongjun Qu, Pierre Perron, Hiroaki Kaido and Jianjun Miao M.A., Applied Economics, Ohio University, Athens OH, 2010 M.S., Applied Mathematics, Ohio University, Athens OH, 2009 M.S., Computational Mathematics, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China, 2007 B.S., Applied Mathematics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China, 2004
FIELDS OF INTEREST Econometrics, Time Series, Macroeconomics, Empirical Finance, Data Mining
TEACHING EXPERIENCE As Lecturer: Algebra, Department of Mathematics (B.S. course), Ohio University, 2007-2009
As Teaching Fellow: Advanced Econometrics (Ph.D. course), Boston University, 2011-2012 Mathematical Economics (M.A. course), Boston University, 2013 Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (B.S. course), Boston University, 2014
WORK EXPERIENCE Research Assistant for Prof. Pierre Perron, Department of Economics, Boston University, 2015 Research Assistant for Prof. Zhongjun Qu, Department of Economics, Boston University, 2012-2014 Research Assistant for Prof. Julia Paxton, Department of Economics, Ohio University, 2009
FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDS Special Research Fellowship, Boston University, 2012-2015 Summer Research Grant, Boston University, 2012 Teaching Fellowship, Boston University, 2011- 2012 Teaching Assistantship, Ohio University, 2007-2009
BOOK “Solutions Manual to Accompany Economic Dynamics in Discrete Time,” (with Yue Jiang and Jianjun Miao), MIT Press, 2014.
FAN ZHUO
PUBLICATION “Economic Shocks and Savings Behavior by the Rural Poor,” (with Julia Paxton) Economics Bulletin, (2011) 31(4): 3286-3293. (Master’s thesis)
WORKING PAPERS “Testing for Regime Switching in State Space Models,” May 2015. “Likelihood Ratio Based Tests for Markov Regime Switching,” (with Zhongjun Qu), October 2014. (Job Market Paper) “Estimating a Search and Matching Model with Sticky Price and Staggered Wage Negotiation,” September 2012.
WORK IN PROGRESS “Stochastic Volatility Models with Regime Switching” “Falling Behind or Catching Up - Structural Break Story of Africa's Convergence”
CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS North American Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society, San Francisco (scheduled), Jan 2016 The 11th World Congress of the Econometric Society, Montreal, August 2015 The 11th International Symposium on Econometric Theory and Applications, Tokyo, May 2015 Statistics and Probability Seminar, Boston University, April 2015 23rd Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Norway, March 2015 Invited Session, Joint Statistical Meetings, Boston, August 2014
LANGUAGES Native in Chinese, Fluent in English
COMPUTER SKILLS MATLAB, Parallel Computing, Stata, R, SAS (Certified Base Programmer)
CITIZENSHIP/VISA: China/F1
REFERENCES
Zhongjun Qu Pierre Perron Hiroaki Kaido Associate Professor Professor Assistant Professor Department of Economics Department of Economics Department of Economics Boston University Boston University Boston University 270 Bay State Road 270 Bay State Road 270 Bay State Road Boston MA 02215 USA Boston MA 02215 USA Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-358-5921 Phone: +1-617-353-3026 Phone: +1-617-358-5924 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
Jianjun Miao Professor Department of Economics Boston University 270 Bay State Road Boston MA 02215 USA Phone: +1-617-353-6675 Email: [email protected]
October, 2015 Fan Zhuo
FAN ZHUO
Likelihood Ratio Based Tests for Markov Regime Switching (joint with Zhongjun Qu) (Job Market Paper)
Markov regime switching models are widely considered in economics and finance. Although there have been persistent interests (see e.g., Hansen, 1992, Garcia, 1998, and Cho and White, 2007), asymptotic distributions of likelihood ratio based tests have remained unknown. This paper considers such tests and establishes their asymptotic distributions in the context of nonlinear models allowing for multiple switching parameters. The analysis simultaneously addresses three difficulties: (i) some nuisance parameters are unidentified under the null hypothesis, (ii) the null hypothesis yields a local optimum, and (iii) conditional regime probabilities follow stochastic processes that can only be represented recursively. Addressing these issues permits substantial power gains in empirically relevant situations. Besides obtaining the tests’ asymptotic distributions, this paper also obtains four sets of results that can be of independent interest: (1) a characterization of conditional regime probabilities and their high order derivatives with respect to the model’s parameters, (2) a high order approximation to the log likelihood ratio permitting multiple switching parameters, (3) a refinement to the asymptotic distribution, and (4) a unified algorithm for simulating the critical values. In otherwise linear models, the elements needed for the algorithm can all be computed analytically. The above results also shed light on why some bootstrap procedures can be inconsistent and why standard information criteria, such as the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), can be sensitive to the hypothesis and the model’s structure. When applied to the US quarterly real GDP growth rates, the methods suggest fairly strong evidence favoring the regime switching specification, which holds consistently over a range of sample periods.
Testing for Regime Switching in State Space Models
The aim of this paper is to analyze the likelihood ratio based tests for state space models to test the null hypothesis of one regime versus the alternative of two regimes. I extend the analysis in Qu and Zhuo (2015) to state space models, which includes ARMA and classical regression models as special cases. Since the basic Kalman filter becomes impracticable for state space models with regime switching, a family of modified likelihood ratio (MLR) tests are proposed and the asymptotic distributions of these test statistics are established. I also conduct Monte Carlo experiments to compare the size and power of the MLR test statistics with the competitive tests for regime switching, and one empirical example is demonstrated to study the U.S. unemployment rate.
Estimating a Search and Matching Model with Sticky Price and Staggered Wage Negotiation
The purpose of this paper is to estimate a search and matching model of the aggregate labor market with sticky price and staggered wage negotiation. This paper is based on a partial equilibrium search and matching model and expands the model to a general equilibrium model with sticky prices and staggered wages. By applying the Bayesian methodology, I study the comprehensive quantitative implications of the entire model and the role of sticky price and staggered wage negotiation.
October, 2015