REPATRIATION of REFUGEES from ARAB CONFLICTS: Conditions, Costs and Scenarios for Reconstruction
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REPATRIATION OF REFUGEES FROM ARAB CONFLICTS: Conditions, Costs and Scenarios for Reconstruction Ibrahim Elbadawi Belal Fallah Jala Youssef Maryse Louis Roger Albinyana Samir Makdisi Semih Tumen FEMISE Euromed Report 2019 FEMISE Euromed Report 2019 REPATRIATION OF REFUGEES FROM ARAB CONFLICTS: CONDITIONS, COSTS AND SCENARIOS FOR RECONSTRUCTION Ibrahim Elbadawi Belal Fallah Jala Youssef Maryse Louis Roger Albinyana Samir Makdisi Semih Tumen First published in 2019 FEMISE and ERF Copyright © FEMISE Association This report received financial support from the European Union through the FEMISE project on “Support to Economic Research, studies and dia- logues of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership”. Any views expressed in this report are the sole responsibility of the authors. About the Authors Ibrahim Elbadawi is managing director of the ERF. Earlier, he served as director of research at the Dubai Economic Council, which he joined in March 2009. Before that, he was lead economist at the Development Research Group of the World Bank, which he joined in 1989. He has published widely on macroeconomic and development policy, dem- ocratic transitions and the economics of civil wars and post-conflict transitions. He was the thematic leader of the Natural Resource Man- agement and Economic Diversification theme at the ERF for five years and is a member of the advisory board of the Arab Planning Institute. He holds a PhD in economics and statistics from North Carolina State and Northwestern Universities. Belal Fellah earned his Ph.D. in 2008 in Regional Economics from the University of Saskatchewan- Canada. He currently works as a direc- tor of Research at Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute-MAS. His research interest and expertise cover regional and development economics, labor economics, and policy-program evaluation. During the past years, he has published a number of papers at international refereed journals including Journal of Development Economics, Jour- nal of Economic Geography, Papers in Regional Science, and Annals of Regional Science. He currently focuses his research on the Palestinian labor market, emphasizing the economic cost of conflict, commuting to the Israeli labor market, and linkages between the labor market and public sector Jala Youssef is a Consultant in the World Bank, Cairo Office at the Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice. She is also a part-time Assistant Lecturer at the French Section of the Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University. Prior to joining the World Bank in 2018, she worked as a researcher at the Economic Re- search Forum (ERF). She previously worked for the Egyptian Govern- ment at the Ministry of International Cooperation and the Egyptian Competition Authority. She holds a B.A. in Economics from the Fac- ulty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University and Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne University, and an M.A. in Applied Economics from Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne University. Maryse Louis PhD, is the General Manager of the FEMISE associa- tion, (Marseille, France), which she joined since its inception in 1999. Dr. Louis is also a member of staff of the Economic Research Forum (ERF, Cairo, Egypt), coordinator of FEMISE. Maryse holds a PhD in Economics from Aix Marseille University, France. Her research inter- est covers issues of development with particular focus on migration and refugees, inequalities and women empowerment in the Med re- gion. She also gained expertise on issues related to knowledge transfer and innovation Roger Albinyana is director of the Mediterranean Regional Policies and Human Development department at the European Institute of the Mediterranean. He is also associate professor at the Faculty of Eco- nomics of the University of Barcelona where he teaches international economic policy. He holds a MA in Economic History from the Uni- versity of Barcelona and the Autonomous University of Barcelona, a BA in Economics from Pompeu Fabra University (Barcelona) and a BA in Business Administration and Management from the Open Univer- sity of Catalonia. From 2013 to 2016, he served as secretary general for Foreign and EU Affairs of the Government of Catalonia. Prior to that, from 2010 to 2013 he served as advisor on private sector development at the Secretariat of Union for the Mediterranean Samir Makdisi is Professor Emeritus of Economics and Founding Director of the Institute of Financial Economics, the American Univer- sity of Beirut (AUB). He is a former Minister of Economy and Trade, Republic of Lebanon, 1992, Deputy President of AUB, 1992-1998 and chair of the Board of Trustees, Economic Research Forum (Cai- ro),1993-2001 and since 2012 an elected member of the Board; and member of the Board of Directors of the Euro-Mediterranean Forum of Economic Institutes (FEMISE, Marseille); he has served as advisor to national governments and to various regional and international eco- nomic and financial organizations. Semih Tumen is an Associate Professor of Economics at TED Uni- versity. He is also affiliated with the ERF and IZA as a Research Fel- low. He received his PhD in Economics from the University of Chicago in 2012, MSc in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2006, and BSc in Economics from the Middle East Technical University in 2000. He served as the Director General of Economic Research at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. His research mainly concentrates on Labor Economics with a special focus on Migration and Refugees. Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter One: Who are the Arab refugees? .............................................................................. 5 1.1 Introduction and objectives ......................................................................................... 5 1.2 Refugees by country of conflict .................................................................................. 6 1.3 Syrian refugees across the main host countries ....................................................... 8 1.4 Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 28 Chapter Two: Enabling conditions, challenges, and processes ........................................ 31 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 31 2.2 Early repatriates ......................................................................................................... 32 2.3 Conditions for return ................................................................................................. 37 2.4 Other considerations .................................................................................................. 47 2.5 What does this mean for Arab repatriation? ........................................................... 51 2.6 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 58 Chapter Three: Repatriation: scenarios for conflict resolution and reconstruction ....... 65 3.1 Repatriation of refugees and their rights................................................................. 67 3.2 3.2 Reconstruction: definitions, scenarios, and impact on refugees .................... 69 3.3 Review of the literature on political settlements ................................................... 74 3.4 Typology of political settlement scenarios ............................................................. 81 3.5 Applying a political settlement typology to historic conflicts in some MENA countries ...................................................................................................................... 83 3.6 The nexus between political settlements and returned refugees in South Med conflict-affected countries ......................................................................................... 90 3.7 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 97 Chapter Four: Repatriation: potential contributions to post-conflict economic development .............................................................................................................................. 107 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 107 4.2 The economic situation in the conflict countries .................................................. 108 4.3 Results for Arab conflicts ......................................................................................... 112 4.4 Post-conflict growth potential ................................................................................. 116 4.5 Review of the existing results and country experiences ..................................... 122 4.6 Concluding remarks and policy perspective ........................................................ 129 Conclusions: Repatriation of refugees from the Arab conflicts: prospects and potential political and economic implications ...................................................................................... 137 Introduction | 1 Introduction The prospects for early re- taken. This would help to support patriation of refugees who have the most positive outcomes – pri- fled conflicts in Arab countries