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Small Hydropower Reference Modeling ORNL/TM-2012/501 Small Hydropower Cost Reference Model October 2012 Prepared by Qin Fen (Katherine) Zhang Brennan Smith Wei Zhang DOCUMENT AVAILABILITY Reports produced after January 1, 1996, are generally available free via the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Information Bridge. Web site http://www.osti.gov/bridge Reports produced before January 1, 1996, may be purchased by members of the public from the following source. National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 Telephone 703-605-6000 (1-800-553-6847) TDD 703-487-4639 Fax 703-605-6900 E-mail [email protected] Web site http://www.ntis.gov/support/ordernowabout.htm Reports are available to DOE employees, DOE contractors, Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDE) representatives, and International Nuclear Information System (INIS) representatives from the following source. Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831 Telephone 865-576-8401 Fax 865-576-5728 E-mail [email protected] Web site http://www.osti.gov/contact.html This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. ORNL/TM-2012/501 Small Hydropower Cost Reference Model Final Project Report Qin Fen (Katherine) Zhang Brennan Smith Wei Zhang Date Published: October 2012 Prepared by OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6283 managed by UT-BATTELLE, LLC for the U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 (THIS PAGE LEFT BLANK INTENTIONALLY) CONTENTS Page LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................................... viii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................... ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................................ x EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................... xi 1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 1 2.0 OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................. 3 2.1 OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE ...................................................................................................... 3 2.2 SMALL HYDRO SITE CLASSIFICATION BY EXISTING FACILITIES ............................. 3 2.3 SMALL HYDRO CLASSIFICATION BY HYDRAULIC HEAD ........................................... 4 2.4 SMALL HYDRO CLASSIFICATION BY PROJECT DESIGN SCHEME ............................. 4 3.0 LITERATURE REVIEW AND COST DATA COLLECTION .......................................................... 6 3.1 EMPIRICAL HYDRO COST EQUATIONS ............................................................................. 6 3.2 EFFORTS ON COST DATA COLLECTION ........................................................................... 8 3.3 FURTHER EFFORT FOR COST DATABASE AND COST MODEL DEVELOPMENT ...... 9 4.0 INITIAL CAPITAL COST ANALYSIS AND COST DRIVERS ..................................................... 11 4.1 INITIAL CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE .................................................................................. 11 4.1.1 ICC Data Sources and Trending .................................................................................... 11 4.1.2 ICC Estimate Equation ................................................................................................... 13 4.2 ICC COMPARISONS AND BREAKDOWNS ........................................................................ 14 4.2.1 Capital Cost Breakdowns .............................................................................................. 16 iii 4.2.2 Civil Works Cost Breakdowns ...................................................................................... 19 4.3 ELECTROMECHANICAL EQUIPMENT COST ESTIMATE .............................................. 22 4.3.1 Equipment Data Source and Trending ........................................................................... 22 4.3.2 Equipment Cost Equation .............................................................................................. 28 4.4 CAPITAL COST DRIVERS .................................................................................................... 31 5.0 LCOE ANALYSIS AND LIFE-CYCLE COST DRIVERS .............................................................. 32 5.1 LIFE-CYCLE COST COMPONENTS .................................................................................... 32 5.2 ANNUAL O&M COST ESTIMATE ....................................................................................... 32 5.3 LCOE CALCULATION ........................................................................................................... 34 5.4 RECOMMENDATION FOR LCOE UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS ...................................... 36 5.5 LCOE DATA TRENDING ....................................................................................................... 37 5.6 LIFE-CYCLE COST DRIVERS .............................................................................................. 37 6.0 COST COMPARISONS FOR NEW AND TRADITIONAL TECHNOLOGIES ............................. 39 6.1 TURBINATOR VERSUS TRADITIONAL TURBINE TECHNOLOGIES ........................... 39 6.2 REMOVABLE POWERHOUSE VERSUS TRADITIONAL POWERHOUSE DESIGN ..... 42 6.3 COST PERFORMANCE OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES .......................................................... 42 7.0 COST-CUTTING TECHNOLOGIES AND TRLS............................................................................ 45 7.1 TRL DEFINITIONS IN THE SMALL HYDRO DOMAIN .................................................... 45 7.2 COST-CUTTING TECHNOLOGIES ...................................................................................... 46 7.2.1 Turbine Cost-Cutting Technologies and Strategies ....................................................... 46 7.2.2 Generator Cost-Cutting Technologies ........................................................................... 49 7.2.3 Control and Instrument Cost-Cutting Technology ........................................................ 49 7.2.4 Powerhouse Cost-Cutting Technologies and Strategies ................................................ 49 7.2.5 Penstock Cost-Cutting Technologies ............................................................................. 50 iv 7.2.6 Dam and Spillway Cost-Cutting Technologies ............................................................. 51 7.2.7 Engineering and Permitting Cost-Cutting Technologies ............................................... 51 8.0 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROPOSALS AND STRATEGIES ..................................... 52 9.0 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................... 55 APPENDIX A: PROSPECTUS FOR HYDROPOWER COST DATA COLLECTION ........................... 57 v LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1. Project cost vs. head within different capacity ranges. Source: INFORSE 2012 .......................... 8 Figure 2. Trend of ICC vs. head and vs. plant capacity for existing NPD and conduit sites. ..................... 12 Figure 3. ICC estimate equation for existing NPD and conduit sites. ........................................................ 14 Figure 4. ICC difference (new sites vs. existing sites) for small hydro in general. .................................... 15 Figure 5. Cost difference (new sites vs. existing sites) for low-head small hydro. ..................................... 15 Figure 6. Capital cost breakdown for low-head small hydro projects. ....................................................... 17 Figure 7. Capital cost breakdown for typical small hydro projects. ........................................................... 18 Figure 8. Capital cost breakdown averaged for six restoration plants in Afghanistan. ............................... 19 Figure 9. Cost breakdown for civil works and structures. .......................................................................... 21 Figure 10. Trend of electromechanical cost vs. net head (aggregated for different turbine types). ............ 23 Figure 11. Trend of electromechanical cost vs. capacity (aggregated for different turbine types). ............ 23 Figure 12. Trend of electromechanical cost vs. net head (aggregated for different generator types). ........ 24 Figure 13. Trend
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