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It Takes More than a Village: Mobilization, Networks, and the State in Central Asia by Scott Radnitz B.A., Political Science The University of California, Berkeley, 2000 Submitted to the Department of Political Science in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Ph.D. in Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology October 2006 O 2006 Massachusetts Institute of Technology All rights reserved Signature of Author .................................... ............. ....... .;.. ......... Department of Political Science October 23, 2006 Certified by............................................. ........ .......... Roger Petersen Associate Professor of Political Science Thesis Supervisor Accepted by................................ ...................................... ....... Roger Petersen Associate Professor of Political Science Chairman, Committee for Graduate Students MASSCHUBSNSTrRC. OF TECHNOLOGY FEB 2320071 ARCHtiES LIBRARIES Abstract This dissertation develops and demonstrates a theory to account for the outbreak of mass mobilization in authoritarian settings. Two conditions make the expansion of protest across community boundaries more likely: (1) low levels of public goods, coupled with (2) economic opportunities that allow elites autonomous from the state to earn revenue. Under regimes where the rule of law is weak, non-state elites have an incentive to protect their assets from state predation by developing a social support base. They do this by making symbolic gestures and providing surrogate public goods to communities. If the regime threatens to harm this relationship, by restricting elites' freedoms or denying them access to resources, top- down mobilization is one of the few means available to advance or defend their position. Elites base their appeal on shared local identity and the material benefit that people derive from elite charity. The ultimate scale of mobilization is determined by the number and geographic dispersion of elites who mobilize locally and then unite their protests. Three mechanisms may be activated to expand mobilization beyond the local level: demonstration, in which people receive information of an event through an impersonal medium and emulate other people's actions by analogy to their own situation; diffusion, or direct contact between actors connected by strong social ties; and brokerage, or mediation between groups by a small number of well-connected individuals. I argue that only if diffusion and brokerage are activated in concert can an incipient movement overcome gaps between (1) elites and masses and (2) different communities (or regions). I demonstrate my theory by comparing Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, then analyzing two cases of mass mobilization within Kyrgyzstan-one of regional scale and one national. In both cases, I illustrate the centrality of vertical networks in bringing about mobilization, and trace how both brokerage and diffusion were activated to expand mobilization from local to regional or national scale. I then test the theory on cases outside the region. The dissertation contributes to the comparative politics literature on contentious politics, the breakdown of authoritarian regimes, and the effect of Soviet legacies on state and society. Acknowledgements It was a long, hard slog, but I couldn't have reached the finish line without the support of many, people, inhabiting three continents, who helped me along the way. I first "discovered" Central Asia during my junior year of college, when I looked with amazement and amusement at that space on the map, so distant geographically and culturally. Only when I went there and spoke with ordinary people did I realize that the exoticism surrounding the region was misleading. Gulnora Aminova, my first Uzbek teacher, gave me the first tools I needed to begin my learning process. John Schoeberlein's Central Asia and the Caucasus Working Group at Harvard exposed me to ideas and people that would help me to understand the region and develop contacts. My first trip was generously funded by the Mellon-MIT Program on NGOs and Forced Migration, and a Foreign Languages and Area Studies grant. A later trip was funded by ACTR/ACCELS. Ruslan Ikramov, my second Uzbek teacher, helped me improve my conversational Uzbek. Kelly McMann and Morgan Liu gave me helpful advice on grant grants and doing fieldwork. John Payne and Marc DeVore at MIT inspired me to take risks and seize the yak by the horns. "The Germans," who organized an ambitious collaborate project whose name is too cumbersome to remember, were of invaluable academic and moral support. Christoph Zuercher provided good feedback as I fumbled my way toward a manageable project and acted as a substitute advisor while in the field. Jan Koehler also helped me to flesh out and refine my ideas, with a social anthropologist's eye for the interesting and unexpected. The team members-Alexey Gunya, Bahodir Sidikov, Azamat Temurkulov, Gunda Wiegmann, and Jonathan Wheatley-provided countless hours of stimulating conversation and fun-whether in Berlin, Bishkek, or Baku-and remain long-term friends and collaborators. I thank the Volkswagen Foundation for its partial support of my fieldwork, including follow-up visits. During my year of fieldwork, the Fulbright program gave me generous financial and logistical support in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. In the field, I was aided in so many ways by so many people, it is impossible to list them all here. In Osh, I was affiliated with the Kyrgyz-Uzbek University, which helped me develop contacts. The Adyshev family generously provided my shelter and food for my first month. My fieldwork and cultural education benefited immensely from the assistance of Almaz Kalet and Ilhom Melibaev, relationships that will last far beyond my research. I have also enjoyed the help and support of Kyialbek Toksonbaev, Azizkin Soltobaev, and Galina Nikolaevna in Bishkek; Saparbek Narkeev, Alai Ergeshev, and UNDP in Aksy; Alisher Saipov and Zalkar Jumabaev in Osh; Bekzod, Ali, Temur Khakberdiev, and CHF in Karshi; and Jusupjon Ajibaev, Maqsad, Aibek, and NDI in Jalalabad. Most of all, I want to thank Abdulla and Mavjuda for always giving me a comfortable place to stay in Tashkent-and so much more. Back home, my committee was always responsive and constructive. Thanks to their many hours of reading and critiquing, my dissertation turned out much better than it would otherwise have been. Roger Petersen was an encouraging yet tough advisor who steered me toward the big picture. Chappell Lawson provided amazingly quick and detailed comments on my dense and verbose early chapters-and then on my more refined later chapters-and helped my to develop and broaden my ideas. Pauline Jones Luong, a fellow 'stan fan, gave me crucial advice in my dissertation's early drafts that sent me on a positive trajectory, and her writings significantly influenced my thinking about politics in Central Asia during my formative years. Lily Tsai made useful and thorough critiques of my writing and helped me to refine my concepts and strengthen my arguments. For the final stages of my dissertation, I benefited from the generous support of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard. I would like to acknowledge the special contribution of the Kyrgyz revolutionaries who, though not acting for my sake, did me a valuable service by producing an event that revived my dissertation in an inauspicious period and gave me- and many others-something interesting to write about. I have not met most of the major protagonists, but I am grateful to them for that inadvertent outcome of their actions of March 2005. I am indebted to my family-Alan, Rena, Todd, and Polly-who supported me throughout my graduate career, including long stretches spent halfway around the world from Los Angeles. Although my mother at one point discouraged me from going to the region, her concern has undoubtedly lengthened my lifespan. And finally, there's Rahima, an unexpected side benefit of my research. She was a major distraction from my work, but I learned more about real life in Central Asia through her than from all the books I had read and interviews I conducted. She provided a reason to keep coming back to the region and, ultimately, her unflinching support made the whole process bearable. Scott Radnitz Cambridge, October 24, 2006 Table of Contents Abstract 3 Acknowledgements 4 Introduction 8 Chapter 1, Mass Mobilization in Authoritarian Systems 31 Chapter 2, The View From Below: Community Networks 52 Chapter 3, The View From Above: State Influences on Elite Opportunities 76 Chapter 4, Vertical Networks 96 Chapter 5, Mass Mobilization in Rural Kyrgyzstan 118 Chapter 6, Elite Networks and the "Tulip Revolution" 148 Chapter 7, Extending the Theory 182 Conclusion: State, Society, and Collective Action in Postcommunism 214 Methodological Appendix 232 Bibliography 234 Introduction In a dusty corner of Jalalabad province in southern Kyrgyzstan, poor farmers tilled the soil, herded their sheep, drank tea, and gossiped about village life, as they often tend to do. They had never taken part in a protest, visited a non-governmental organization (NGO), or met an American with the exception of a Peace Corps volunteer who had once resided in a neighboring village. The monotony of village life for these people would be briefly interrupted in March 2005 when they would participate in bringing about the first peaceful regime change in Central Asia's 14-year history as independent states. In that

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