Central Asia-Caucasus

Analyst

BI-WEEKLY BRIEFING VOL. 9 NO. 13 27 JUNE 2007 Searchable Archives with over 1,000 articles at http://www.cacianalyst.org

ANALYTICAL ARTICLES

FIELD REPORTS: BERDIMUKHAMMEDOV EMBARKS ON

SIGNIFICANT EDUCATIONAL REFORMS Chemen Durdiyeva GUAM LEADERS DISCUSS CONFLICTS AND ENERGY IN BAKU Niklas Nilsson RAMZAN KADYROV’S NEW CHALLENGES

TO THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT KULOV’S PROPOSAL TO JOIN RUSSIA Kevin Daniel Leahy PICKED UP BY KYRGYZ, RUSSIAN MEDIA Erica Marat GEORGIA AND THE CFE SAGA Richard Weitz EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN LEAVES OPPOSITION VIOLENCE THREATENS TO RISE IN FRUSTRATED AFGHANISTAN'S NORTHERN PROVINCES Marat Yermukanov Haroun Mir GEORGIAN TAX INITIATIVE QUESTIONED Kakha Jibladze

NEWS DIGEST

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst

BI-WEEKLY BRIEFING VOL. 9 NO. 13 27 JUNE 2007 Contents

Analytical Articles

BERDIMUKHAMMEDOV EMBARKS ON SIGNIFICANT EDUCATIONAL REFORMS 3 Chemen Durdiyeva

RAMZAN KADYROV’S NEW CHALLENGES TO THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT 6 Kevin Daniel Leahy

GEORGIA AND THE CFE SAGA 9 Richard Weitz

VIOLENCE THREATENS TO RISE IN AFGHANISTAN'S NORTHERN PROVINCES 12 Haroun Mir

Field Reports

GUAM LEADERS DISCUSS CONFLICTS AND ENERGY IN BAKU 15 Niklas Nilsson

KULOV’S PROPOSAL TO JOIN RUSSIA PICKED UP BY KYRGYZ, RUSSIAN MEDIA 17 Erica Marat

EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN LEAVES OPPOSITION FRUSTRATED 18 Marat Yermukanov

GEORGIAN TAX INITIATIVE QUESTIONED 20 Kakha Jibladze

News Digest 22

THE CENTRAL ASIA-CAUCASUS ANALYST

Editor Svante E. Cornell

Assistant Editor, News Digest Alima Bissenova

Chairman, Editorial Board S. Frederick Starr

The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is an English language global Web journal devoted to analysis of the current issues facing the Central Asia-Caucasus region. It serves to link the business, governmental, journalistic and scholarly communities and is the global voice of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center. The Editor of the Analyst solicits most articles and field reports, however authors may suggest topics for future issues or submit articles and field reports for consideration. Such articles and field reports cannot have been previously published in any form, must be written in English, and must correspond precisely to the format and style of articles and field reports published in The Analyst (www.cacianalyst.org) and described below. The Analyst aims to provide our industrious and engaged audience with a singular and reliable assessment of events and trends in the region written in an analytical tone rather than a polemical one. Analyst articles reflect the fact that we have a diverse international audience. While this should not affect what author’s write about or their conclusions, this does affect the tone of articles. Analyst articles focus on a newsworthy topic, engage central issues of the latest breaking news from the region and are backed by solid evidence. Articles should normally be based on local language news sources. Each 1000-1200 word analytical article must offer a concise and authoritative statement of the event or issue in question. An article must provide relevant, precise and authoritative background information. It also must offer a sober and analytical judgment of the issue as well as a clinical evaluation of the importance of the event. Authors must cite facts of controversial nature to the Editor who may contact other experts to confirm claims. Since Analyst articles are based on solid evidence, rather than rumors or conjecture, they prove to be reliable sources of information on the region. By offering balanced and objective analysis while keeping clear of inflammatory rhetoric, The Analyst does more to inform our international readership on all sides of the issues. The Editor reserves the right to edit the article to conform to the editorial policy and specifications of The Analyst and to reject the article should it not be acceptable to our editorial committee for publication. On acceptance and publication of the edited version of the article, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of The Johns Hopkins University-The Nitze School of Advanced International Studies will issue an honorarium to the author. The copyright for the article or field report will reside with the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst. However, the author may use all or part of the contracted article in any book or article in any media subsequently written by the author, provided that a copyright notice appears giving reference to the contracted article’s first publication by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia- Caucasus Institute, The Johns Hopkins University-The Nitze School of Advanced International Studies."

Submission Guidelines: Analytical Articles: Analytical articles require a three to four sentence Key Issue introduction to the article based on a news hook. Rather than a general, overarching analysis, the article must offer considered and careful judgment supported with concrete examples. The ideal length of analytical articles is between 1,000 and 1,300 words. The articles are structured as follows: KEY ISSUE: A short 100-word statement of your conclusions about the issue or news event on which the article focuses. BACKGROUND: 300-450 words of analysis about what has led up to the event or issue and why this issue is critical to the region. Include background information about the views and experiences of the local population. IMPLICATIONS: 300-450 words of analysis of the ramifications of this event or issue, including where applicable, implications for the local people’s future. CONCLUSIONS: 100-200 words that strongly state your conclusions about the impact of the event or issue.

Field Reports: Field Reports focus on a particular news event and what local people think about the event, or about the work of an NGdO. Field Reports address the implications the event or activity analyzed has for peoples’ lives and their communities. Field Reports do not have the rigid structure of Analytical Articles, and are shorter in length, averaging ca. 700-800 words.

Those interested in joining The Analyst’s pool of authors to contribute articles, field reports, or contacts of potential writers, please send your CV to: and suggest some topics on which you would like to write.

Svante E. Cornell Research Director; Editor, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University 1619 Massachusetts Ave. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, USA. Tel. +1-202-663-5922; 1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 3

BERDIMUKHAMMEDOV EMBARKS ON SIGNIFICANT EDUCATIONAL REFORMS Chemen Durdiyeva

On June 12, President Gurbanguly Berdimukhammedov held a plenary Cabinet session at the Turkmen State University named after Turkmen poet Magtymguly and signed a major decree on the “perfection of science in Turkmenistan.” In accordance with this new decree, a new Higher Professional Examination Board of the High Council of Science and Technology and a new Foundation of Science and Technology were created. Within the framework of the latest changes in the socio-economic life of the country, Berdimukhammedov’s recent education reforms are decisively promising given the president’s relatively short period of time as a head of state.

BACKGROUND: A large-scale reformation of the This in turn had resulted in the influx of Turkmen educational system in Turkmenistan took roots with prospective students to foreign universities, mainly in the adoption of the Bilim Program in May of 1993. Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Under the strong personal guidance of former Tajikistan. However, as President Niyazov personally President Saparmurat Niyazov, full compulsory proclaimed several times, students with education from education at all secondary schools was reduced to nine non-authorized foreign universities abroad were not years, and the Cyrillic script changed to the Latin welcome in Turkmenistan, and neither would their alphabet. Along with other major turnovers in the diplomas be recognized nor would they be employed in educational curriculum, the holy script Ruhnama, the government sector. According to the report of the authored by Niyazov, became a textbook for virtually Turkmenistan Helsinki Initiative, a Vienna-based every single student in the country. Accordingly, independent human rights organization, the education at higher educational establishments (16 in Turkmenistan Ministry of Education in 2003 issued total) in the country were brought down to two years order no. 126, which stated that all specialists holding of theoretical knowledge and two years of practical diplomas of higher education, received outside the work experience in the respective field of studies. But country after 1993 would be dismissed from their jobs to be enrolled to the higher educational establishments from June 2004. In so doing, the majority of the in the country, applicants first had to get a two-year university graduates abroad tended to stay in their working experience pass in the field of their respective countries of study to earn a living. This inevitably studies, and only then could their applications be created a brain drain in the country. considered. For instance, secondary school graduates In the eyes of international community, the desperate were officially encouraged by authorities first to join situation regarding education in Turkmenistan the two-year obligatory military service and then apply appeared to have created a reasonable concern not only for a university education.

4 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007

for the country’s future per se, but also raised fears that after graduating from secondary schools, without it might eventually create a conducive ground for a waiting for a two-year work experience pass as before. failed state in the region. In reports published in 2003 Disciplines of physical training and social science, once and 2004, the International Crisis Group (ICG) eliminated from the school program, have been periodically warned the international community that restored to the national curriculum again. Two to three if the political status quo was kept as such, it would year vocational colleges and professional schools will create a “dangerously isolated and uneducated start enrolling secondary school graduates from generation increasingly sucked into a vicious circle of September as well. What has caught the attention of drugs trafficking and abuse, and organized crime.” the academics, schoolteachers and students the most is However, Berdimukhammedov’s recent initiatives, the fact that the president raised their monthly salaries particularly his set of decrees on “perfection of national and stipends by 40 percent beginning in the upcoming education” appear to have become an initial step to academic year in September. Such reforms, particularly change the dire situation before it reaches its climax. It the salary increases and the creation of extra job is noteworthy that Gurbanguly Berdimukhammedov, vacancies, in the meantime, make many qualified as newly elected president, started his first steps in professors and scientists who either became victims of politics by making immediate changes in the regular lay-offs or sought more profitable jobs at other educational system of the country. fields, consider returning to educational establishments IMPLICATIONS: On March 17, 2007 President again. Berdimukhammedov signed a decree on limiting the At the June 12 meeting, speaking to a wide audience of use of the national state oath in public places, including government officials, representatives of public educational establishments in Turkmenistan. organizations, and scientists as well as students of Accordingly, if the schoolchildren would have started major institutions, Berdimukhammedov focused the the usual school day with a solemn recital of the state entire session solely on developing science in oath, swearing loyalty to the motherland and Turkmenistan. By opening the once-scaled down Turkmenbashi the Great, now they use it once only at Academy of Sciences, the president created a Higher the school graduation ceremony. Moreover, the words Professional Examination Board and a Foundation of “Turkmenbashy the Great” were changed to the Science and Technology to coordinate and finance the “President of Turkmenistan”. On the one hand, such research dissertations of national academics. As such, changes might seem tiny, but on the other, it is one the universities and other scientific institutions will step toward steering clear of the elements of the one- start conferring masters and doctoral degrees from the time cult of personality in the educational system of coming academic year as well. As part of the national Turkmenistan. plan for the “perfection of science in Turkmenistan,” Earlier the same month, President the president commissioned the Ministry of Education Berdimukhammedov issued another important decree to prepare an immediate plan for implementing the that introduced new fundamental changes particularly stated reforms and present a specific plan to connect all in the educational curriculum and teaching the educational and scientific institutions to the methodologies. Starting from September 2007, the Internet. weekly workload of a schoolteacher will be 24 hours According to the United Nations Development (less than before) whereas a university professor’s is Program (UNDP) in Turkmenistan, 10 schools in 850 hours per annum. Full secondary education was Ashgabat already have access to the World Wide Web. brought back to 10 years, and the university education Under the joint UNDP-Ministry of Education project now stretches from five to six years. Moreover, “Information sharing in Turkmenistan – for secondary school graduates can go to university right sustainable human development - InfoTuk” 10 more

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 5 schools will be connected to the Internet in Mary city material support the president has given to the as well. Official government sources say that in development of education and science in Turkmenistan addition to these schools, 21 scientific and 15 higher provide a good chance to expand the intellectual educational establishments are presently using the opportunities of the young generation and thwart a Internet. As such, the schoolchildren, students and massive longstanding indoctrination process in the professors alike now have access to worldwide country. Second, paying close attention to getting a knowledge and information in a country where the proper education and increase enrollment in the Internet once was totally limited. universities may in fact facilitate a resolution to CONCLUSIONS: Gurbanguly Berdimukhammedov’s Turkmenistan’s long-standing “brain-drain” and vigorous support for the development of education and ensuing cadre problem. science in Turkmenistan brings certain issues to the AUTHOR’S BIO: Chemen Durdiyeva is an Ashgabat- core of attention. First and foremost, the legal basis and based freelance writer.

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6 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007

RAMZAN KADYROV’S NEW CHALLENGES TO THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT Kevin Daniel Leahy

For months now, Ramzan Kadyrov has been calling for Russia’s constitution to be altered so that President Putin would be allowed to stand for a third term. Putin, however, is on record as saying he does not want another term. Therefore, the time is fast approaching when Kadyrov must acknowledge, with as much grace as he can muster, that Putin will indeed be relinquishing the presidency for at least four years. Given the range of opponents now arrayed against him, Kadyrov will be in dire need of a powerful patron once Putin leaves office.

BACKGROUND: Ramzan Kadyrov’s first four negative light, given the context, this was months in office have yielded a number of nevertheless a clear misrepresentation of most political triumphs. He successfully campaigned Chechens’ attitudes toward Russia’s first post- for Chechen convicts held in Russian jails to be Soviet president, who presided over the first allowed serve out their sentences in Chechnya. invasion of Chechnya in 1994. He also presided over – though the extent of his Relations between Kadyrov and the Interior direct involvement is unclear – the Ministry (MVD), at both local and federal assassinations of two top rebel field levels, have degenerated markedly since the commanders, Tahir Bataev and Khairulla. A turn of the year. With respect to Kadyrov and number of Kadyrov’s political initiatives have the federal MVD structures, relations were also caught the public imagination, such as his most likely soured by the Chechen president’s campaign to have the so-called ORB-2 bureau high-profile campaign against ORB-2, which and its detention facilities closed down. operates under the auspices of the Southern But not everything touched by the new Federal District’s MVD department. The president has turned to gold. Chechens’ concern departure of Alu Alkhanov, a former MVD about the resumption of the military draft in General and Kadyrov’s immediate predecessor, their republic continues to fester. This, in large from Chechnya’s political scene may also have part, is because Kadyrov, who is actively antagonized certain MVD officials. The recent preparing for its reintroduction, has yet to say decision by the Russian Interior Ministry to whether Chechen draftees will be allowed to slash the salaries of Chechen policemen is most serve in their home republic (the preferred likely a calculated, and potentially fateful, option for the vast majority) or whether they response to Kadyrov’s campaign against ORB-2. will be eligible for service anywhere in the Many of these policemen are former rebels who Russian Federation. Kadyrov’s response to the were wooed over to the pro-Moscow side by recent death of Boris Yeltsin also rankled with promises of secure, well-paid employment. It many Chechens. In a letter to Yeltsin’s widow has been reported that in some cases, he stated: “It was with profound sorrow that policemen’s salaries have been reduced by 50 the Chechen people took the news of the percent with many feeling cheated and bitter as passing of your husband…” While Kadyrov a result. Perhaps not coincidentally, this could scarcely have painted Yeltsin in a development has been accompanied by renewed

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 7 reports of conflict between Kadyrov and the well be preceded, or immediately followed by, a leader of Chechnya’s MVD-affiliated “Yug” nationwide anti-corruption campaign with battalion, Muslim Ilyasov. While Kadyrov’s particular emphasis on corruption in the relations with the FSB and the Russian military regions. In such a scenario, the role of the local have always been poor, until recently his prosecutor’s office would assume greater relationship with the MVD was at least significance. So too would regional-based equivocal. federal organs in the mould of ORB-2. IMPLICATIONS: Kadyrov is opposed in Kadyrov’s persistent, almost desperate, calls for principle to any representative(s) of federal Putin to remain in office for a third term betray authority being stationed in Chechnya a definite sense of insecurity on his part about indefinitely. Over the past seven years he and his post-Putin relationship with the Kremlin. his late father, Akhmed-Hajji Kadyrov, have Essentially, the Putin-Kadyrov relationship is seen off a procession of Prime ministers – bereft of any real ideological or inter-personal invariably Russians – imposed on them from depth and amounts to Kadyrov receiving a above. The Kadyrov clan has also steadfastly license to govern his fief as he sees fit in insisted that the Russian military must exchange for his perpetuating, and eventually leave Chechnya. The latest overt consolidating, the image of Chechnya as a manifestation of this implicit agenda involves peaceful, renascent society, emerging phoenix- the republic’s prosecutor, Valeri Kuznetsov, one like from the ashes of war. of the few remaining Russians in Kadyrov’s But Kadyrov’s unwillingness (or perhaps government. A campaign to oust Kuznetsov inability) to cultivate a benign working from his post began in late January when he relationship with federal agencies such as the reacted sceptically to Kadyrov’s aforementioned MVD has, of late, made it especially difficult proposal to repatriate Chechen convicts. In for him to hold up his end of the bargain. The mid-May Chechnya’s human rights MVD’s decision to cut police salaries ombudsman, Nurdi Nukhazhiev, (seemingly precipitated a plethora of rumors suggesting fast on his way to becoming President that dozens of law enforcement officers were Kadyrov’s de facto deputy spokesman behind joining the rebels. Given the ongoing campaign Dukvakha Abdurakhmanov) denounced against Kuznetsov, it is perhaps not surprising Kuznetsov, accusing him of “criminal inactivity that the federal Prosecutor-General’s office was in protecting the rights of the local population.” to the fore in spreading these rumors, According to Nukhazhiev, Kadyrov is announcing that together with the MVD, it personally “dissatisfied” with the performance was taking “all the necessary measures to detect of the prosecutor; but why this sudden such people.” eagerness to rid himself of this relatively CONCLUSIONS: It can now be said with inconspicuous, virtually inconsequential authority that President Kadyrov has burned official? Kadyrov’s concern is not so much his proverbial bridges with all of the federal about Kuznetsov personally, but rather his agencies currently active in Chechnya. On station and the importance it might assume occasion, Kadyrov has shown a certain political over the coming months. The Chechen deftness, but just as often he has manifested a president already has one eye on Russia’s upcoming presidential election. Even a casual virtually unparalleled capacity for making analysis of President Putin’s public enemies gratuitously. To a large extent, local pronouncements over the past year will reveal a opposition to Kadyrov has been cowed: Alu particular emphasis on fighting corruption. Alkhanov has relocated to Moscow, while Said- Indeed, the beckoning presidential contest may Magomed Kakiev and Sulim Yamadaev may as

8 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 well have followed him, so inconspicuous have early next year, out of sheer necessity, this they become since his departure. But with strategy will soon be altered. As Kadyrov has Chechnya’s rebel movement becoming singularly failed to cultivate good relations with increasingly active against a backdrop of his immediate federal superiors, he must take popular discontent concerning issues like the steps to ensure he has the ear of the next economy and conscription, perhaps it would Russian president just as he did the last. behoove Kadyrov to seek out some allies for a Kadyrov has already met with Medvedev change. Kadyrov and his advisors are clearly (generally viewed as the candidate best worried about Russia’s pending changing of the disposed toward Kadyrov) during April. A guard. In response, their strategy has been to meeting between Ivanov and Kadyrov is agitate in favor of preserving the status quo expected to take place soon. rather than ingratiating themselves with either AUTHOR’S BIO: Kevin Daniel Leahy holds a (or both) of the presidential frontrunners, postgraduate degree from University College Cork, Sergei Ivanov and Dimitri Medvedev. Given Ireland. that Putin now seems certain to step down

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by Erica Marat

This paper analyzes the divergent forms that relationships between organized crime and the state have taken in the two worst hit Central Asian states in the past decade.

This 138-page paper is available from the offices of the Joint Center cited on the inside cover of this issue, or freely downloadable in PDF format from either www.cacianalyst.org or www.silkroadstudies.org.

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 9

GEORGIA AND THE CFE SAGA Richard Weitz

From June 12 to 15, an extraordinary conference of signatory countries to the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) convened in Vienna. The Russian government called the meeting, the first of its kind in the CFE’s 17-year history, to resolve various disputes that had arisen between Moscow and other signatories. One of the main items in dispute concerns Russian military activities in Georgia. The conference failed to resolve this or other issues in contention, leaving uncertain the status of both the Treaty and the Russian military presence in Georgia.

BACKGROUND: The governments belonging to not until May 31, 2005, however, that the Russian NATO and the now dismantled Warsaw Pact and Georgian governments signed bilateral signed the original CFE Treaty in 1990. This agreements in Sochi regarding two remaining bases. complex document established equal ceilings of Under their terms, the Russia pledged to remove its major conventional weapons (tanks, armored military personnel and equipment from the bases in combat vehicles, artillery pieces, combat aircraft and Akhalkalaki and Batumi by the end of 2007 and attack helicopters) for each bloc and within 2008, respectively. Georgia and the other CFE specified geographic regions. The treaty required the signatories agree that the Russian military is destruction of all armaments held in excess of these fulfilling these agreements according to schedule. limits and established an elaborate inspection Nevertheless, controversy persists regarding the system to verify its fulfillment. fourth facility. According to Moscow, the Russian All 30 parties signed a CFE Adaptation Agreement military ceased using the base at Gudauta for at the OSCE summit in Istanbul in November 1999. combat operations in October 2001. The Russian The amended version replaced the obsolete bloc-to- government reports that only some 400 Russian bloc and zonal limits with a system of national and military personnel remain there, and that half of territorial boundaries. At present, only four of the these are retirees and dependents. It acknowledges signatories—Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and that several combat and transport helicopters as well Russia—have ratified the 1999 Adaptation as other military vehicles and facilities also exist at Agreement. NATO governments have refused to the base, but affirms that their function is strictly to do so until Russia fulfills the commitments made at support the Russian troops assigned to the the Istanbul summit to withdraw all its military peacekeeping force in Abkhazia. bases from Georgia as well as Transdniestria, The Georgian government, along with other CFE Moldova. members, has called for establishing a multinational At the end of the Cold War, the Soviet armed forces inspection mission (including some Georgian occupied four military bases in Georgia. In 2001, nationals) at the base to evaluate the Russian claims Russia transferred the Vaziani military airfield and monitor military activities there. Thus far, outside Tbilisi to the Georgian government. It was however, the separatist authorities in Abkhazia,

10 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 backed by Moscow, have denied the Georgian gained their independence after the drafting of the government access to the Gudauta base. original CFE Treaty, have agreed to sign the Russian representatives deny that the CFE Treaty Adapted CFE Treaty upon its coming into force. or Yeltsin’s Istanbul commitments require them to U.S. officials deny plans to establish large military authorize the creation of such an observation bases in Bulgaria and Romania, describing them as mission. At most, they have indicated interest in “joint training facilities” that would only host U.S. arranging for a one-time visit by foreign observers forces on short-term rotations. to certify the base’s closure. Although they have IMPLICATIONS: In his controversial February participated in trilateral talks on the issue with 2007 presentation before the Munich Security German and Georgian representatives, Russian Conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin officials advocate bilateral talks between Russia and insisted that, “Our army is leaving Georgia, even Georgia to resolve all remaining disputes. according to an accelerated schedule. We resolved Russian government officials also argue they need the problems we had with our Georgian colleagues, to support “peacekeeping” forces in Abkhazia and as everybody knows.” In his state of the nation the other so-called “frozen” conflict regions of the address in April 2007, Putin argued that the CFE former Soviet Union pending their resolution. The Treaty “is not in any way legally bound to the CFE Treaty does not directly limit the size or Istanbul Agreements.” He announced that the activities of peacekeeping units, many of which Russian government might impose a “moratorium” consist of former Soviet military personnel. The on its participation in the CFE process unless the elaborate CFE inspection regime also does not other parties fulfilled their commitments. The encompass the “unaccounted-for treaty-limited Russian government subsequently called for the equipment” possessed by separatist forces in extraordinary CFE conference to address their Abkhazia and other conflict regions of the former concerns. Soviet Union. Much of this equipment is thought to Before the Vienna conference, U.S. Assistant be of Russian origin and has become a source for Secretary of State for European and Eurasian small arms traffickers throughout Europe, Asia, and Affairs Daniel Fried said that NATO countries Africa. would “make every effort to address Russian In addition, Russian policy makers insist their concerns seriously and creatively, but we will also country needs more flexibility to deploy larger troop keep faith both with our own principles and concentrations in southern Russian to counter countries like Georgia and Moldova.” Fried Islamist-inspired terrorism in Chechnya and other indicated that the U.S. government would consider areas. The CFE Treaty contains certain special further revisions in the treaty to meet Russia’s “flank restrictions” to prevent the concentration of concerns regarding its flank deployments, but only conventional heavy equipment in northeastern and after Russia fulfilled its Istanbul commitments to southeastern Russia (primarily near Norway and withdraw its troops and munitions from Georgia Turkey, respectively). Russian officials also express and Moldova. concern that the treaty’s provisions do not apply to In the case of Gudauta, Fried indicated during the U.S. military deployments in Bulgaria and conference that the United States favored sending a Romania. They have called for more constraints on “fact-finding” mission—which presumably sounded NATO military activities in southeastern Europe as less confrontational to Moscow than a formal well as the three Baltic states. “inspection” mission—to clarify the situation there. NATO representatives insist that their military He stressed Washington’s flexibility regarding the activities in the Baltic region comply with existing precise modalities of any such inspection: “there are CFE provisions. The Baltic governments, which various ways in which it could be arranged. We’re not rigid about this, so we hope it will be taken up.”

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 11

At the extraordinary Vienna meeting, Anatoly members Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan Antonov, chief of the Foreign Ministry’s Security are not even parties to the CFE Treaty. and Disarmament Department and head of the CONCLUSIONS: Antonov reasserted Putin’s Russian delegation, reaffirmed Moscow’s earlier warning that Russia might impose a commitment to conventional arms control in unilateral “moratorium” on its CFE participation Europe. Nevertheless, he and the other Russian unless NATO countries ratified the 1999 Adaptation government officials continued to denounce the Agreement. Although the CFE does not have a “artificial links” between Russian military troop clause regarding suspension, such a moratorium withdrawal and CFE ratification. could include ignoring CFE provisions requiring After the session ended, Antonov complained that inspections of Russian military forces or the pre- “no one listened to us. They continued to admonish notification of major military movements. A us.” To counter perceptions of being isolated, moratorium could also see Russia concentrate more Russia secured a declaration supporting its position forces along its flanks than permitted by the CFE from its allies in the Collective Security Treaty Treaty’s quantitative limits. Organization (CSTO). The statement appeared to have little practical effect since Armenia has yet to ratify the Adaptation Agreement and CSTO

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12 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007

VIOLENCE THREATENS TO RISE IN AFGHANISTAN'S NORTHERN PROVINCES Haroun Mir

Since early 2007, the number of suicide bombings, political assassinations, and armed clashes has risen in the northern provinces of Afghanistan, which indicates a gradual deterioration of the situation in this relatively peaceful part of the country. While the Afghan government and NATO forces have focused on the insurgent-infested territories of southern and eastern Afghanistan, anti-government elements have become increasingly active in the northern and western provinces.

BACKGROUND: The Afghan government For instance, more than 2,000 fighters from the and NATO countries have spent most of their province of Badakhshan alone were actively energy on reacting to the insurgency in the fighting the former Northern Alliance forces in south, but have failed to put forward a clear the front lines north of Kabul. Presently, a vision to bring good governance and economic significant number of the young madrassa development to the relatively peaceful northern graduates are ready to take arms against the provinces. The growing public resentment, due Afghan government and NATO forces in the to the perceived lack of progress in these northern part of the country. provinces, does not appear to be taken seriously Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a close ally of Al-Qaeda by the Afghan central government. The tragic and leader of Hezb-e-Islami, is originally from incident of May 28, when the Afghan police the province of Kunduz and still enjoys shot dead 13 demonstrators in the town of considerable influence in a number of northern Sheberghan, might be used as a prelude for provinces. He consistently sends messages to further tension and clashes between the influential former mujahideen commanders in government forces and local population. these provinces, inviting them to join him as Contrary to the natural make-up of the Taliban, the followers of late Ahmad Shah Massoud in which is generally an exclusive movement of the struggle against the presence of foreign the Pashtun tribes of southwestern forces in Afghanistan. The potential for Hezb- Afghanistan, ethnic Tajiks and Uzbeks from e-Islami to recruit among religious zealots and the northern provinces of Afghanistan have the disenchanted former mujahideen also been active in their ranks. During the commanders is considerable. A further years of the resistance against the Soviet deterioration of the situation in the northern occupation, a considerable number of young provinces would allow Hezb-e-Islami Afghan refugees from the northern provinces sympathizers to vigorously reactivate their had entered Pakistani madrassas. From 1996- network of terror and anti-government 2001, a sizeable number of young fighters from propaganda. theses provinces had been active in the Taliban.

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 13

Privileged relations with foreign countries has Moreover, Afghanistan has become a proxy war become the norm for the majority of Afghan between Iran and the West. The Iranian politicians. The continued conflict in intelligence services have been particularly Afghanistan has provided an implicit active in the western and northern parts of the legitimacy for the neighboring and regional country. Recently, American and British countries to interfere directly in Afghanistan’s authorities have accused Iran of supporting the internal affairs. Most Afghan leaders are on the insurgents in Afghanistan with Iranian-made payroll of these countries, and have become arms, ammunitions, and sophisticated explosive tools in the geopolitical game in Afghanistan. devices. Also, the massive expulsion of Afghan Sadly, leaders such as the late Ahmad Shah refugees from Iran is meant to create additional Massoud, who refused to be dictated by foreign social and economic burdens on the Afghan countries, did not survive the conflict. government. IMPLICATIONS: Growing public frustration Iran has become the alternative for some of the provides an opportunity for anti-government local Afghan leaders against the Taliban forces to thrive and recruit among the movement and its backers and financiers in population. The Taliban and Hezb-e-Islami of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Since the long-term Gulbuddin Hekmatyar have been able to presence of NATO and U.S. forces in reactivate their network of sympathizers in the Afghanistan appears improbable, Iranian northern provinces, where regional and authorities are willing to use their influence in neighboring countries have also re-established northern and western Afghanistan to send a their covert activities. These provinces now risk warning to the West that Iran’s lack of slipping from the control of Afghan cooperation in Afghanistan would cost the government as well. West dearly. For one, the Taliban’s supporters in Pakistan Of all the Afghan neighbors, the Central Asian allegedly seek to spread the conflict to the regimes have the largest stake in Afghanistan’s northern provinces of Afghanistan for two stability – but they remain under direct reasons. First, they want to prove to the rest of influence of Russia. A deterioration of the the world that the conflict in Afghanistan is not situation in northern Afghanistan would mean uniquely limited to the provinces bordering that their Islamist opposition, now based in Pakistan. Secondly, the much publicized Pakistan, could move their operational bases Taliban spring offensive did not take effect. from the tribal areas of Pakistan to the Instead, the Taliban have been receiving severe mountains of northern Afghanistan and to the blows at the hands of Afghan and NATO shores of the Oxus River. But the latest forces. The potential for eventual military deterioration of relations between Russia and conflict in northern Afghanistan would NATO will certainly have an impact in certainly take a considerable number of Afghan Afghanistan. Russia’s lack of cooperation could and NATO forces away from the insurgent seriously undermine NATO’s stabilizing battlegrounds of the southern and eastern efforts in northern Afghanistan. provinces, where Pakistan prefers to dominate CONCLUSIONS: The majority of Afghans through its violent proxies. support the presence of NATO forces in Afghanistan, but since most of them are

14 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 illiterate, they remain vulnerable to anti- internal affairs is to reach out to ordinary Western propaganda and conspiracy theories Afghans. If the local population were to trust that circulate throughout the country. The the central government, there would be less government and its NATO allies have had opportunity for the neighboring and regional ample time in the past five years to promote countries to take advantage of the poor and honest and moderate interlocutors from the downtrodden in Afghanistan. Regaining that local population through traditional social and trust will not be an easy task – but it is essential political mechanisms as government if any other, future efforts in Afghanistan are to institutions have not yet gained their trust. lead to stability and peace. The main cause of conflict in Afghanistan has AUTHOR’S BIO: Haroun Mir served over always been foreign interference. Despite the five years as an aide to the late Ahmad Shah presence of major NATO forces in Massoud, Afghanistan’s former defense Afghanistan, the country remains vulnerable to minister. He works as a consultant in Kabul the policies of its neighboring countries. The and is a Policy Analyst for the International only way for the Afghan government to cut off Affairs Forum. the interference of its neighbors in Afghan

New issue of the

China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly

The May 2007 issue of the China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, edited by Dr. Niklas Swanström, is online.

The issue contains articles by Daniel Burghart, Michael Mihalka, Braekhus & Overland, Olga Oliker, and Sebastien Peyrouse, among other.

The issue is freely available online through www.silkroadstudies.org.

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 15

FIELD REPORTS

GUAM LEADERS DISCUSS CONFLICTS AND ENERGY IN BAKU Niklas Nilsson

During June 18-19, the presidents of Georgia, protracted conflicts in the GUAM region according Azerbaijan and Ukraine, and the Prime Minister of to the principle of territorial integrity, and of Moldova met in Baku for a summit of the resolving conflicts through reintegrating Organization for Democracy and Economic secessionist regions into state structures. According Development – GUAM. The summit was also to these principles, the members drafted a resolution attended by significant proponents of GUAM’s on the unresolved conflicts for submission to the agenda within the EU, through the presidents of UN General Assembly. Poland, Lithuania and Romania. However, the summit failed to attract participation of the EU presidency and commission. A main outcome of the meeting was the signing of a joint declaration stating that the members shall “expand cooperation with a view to promote democratic values, the rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, attain sustainable social and economic development and ensure security and stability in the GUAM region.” The unresolved conflicts over Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh Georgia’s president Mikheil Saakashvili used the dominated the agenda and the declaration occasion for stating that “time is expiring” for specifically underlined the importance of settling South Ossetia’s de facto leader, Eduard Kokoity,

16 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 and that Tbilisi is planning to resolve this conflict jeopardized especially in light of the May 12 shortly, however in a peaceful manner. According to agreement between Russia, Kazakhstan and Saakashvili, this will take place through Turkmenistan on future increases in Turkmen gas negotiations on autonomy with South Ossetia’s exports via Kazakhstan through the Russian Tbilisi-supported provisional administration under pipeline network. However, the summit’s main Dmitri Sanakoyev. focus in terms of energy was on the previously With the member states displaying a common proposed extension of the Odessa-Brody pipeline to position on the unresolved conflicts, GUAM’s Poland through Plock to Gdansk, and on potential for playing a role in their resolution was a possibilities of transporting Azerbaijani oil through topic for discussion, and the President of this route and on to the West European market. Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, stated that GUAM’s Aliyev stated that planned increases in Azerbaijani increasing international importance combined with oil production will suffice in filling the Odessa- the economic development of its members do grant Brody-Gdansk pipeline. it importance in this regard. Ahead of the summit, The formation of GUAM in 1997 was intended as participants agreed to consider the previously an organizational alternative to the CIS, aimed at discussed issue of creating a joint GUAM counteracting Russian influence over its near peacekeeping force. A stated ambition on the part of abroad. In its previous form, GUAM produced few Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, this concrete results, however the peaceful revolutions in would among other tasks develop a capability for Georgia and Ukraine and Azerbaijan’s emergence as deployment in conflict regions in GUAM countries an energy player provided for a revitalization of the under a UN or OSCE mandate, thus potentially grouping, addressed at a meeting in Chisinau in replacing existing Russian CIS peacekeeping forces. 2005. The formation of the Organization for However, it seems that skepticism among other Democracy and Economic Development – GUAM GUAM members, especially on the part of at a meeting in Kiev in 2006 aimed at Moldova, on the desirability of creating such a force institutionalizing GUAM into an international provided for little progress on the issue. organization, rather than an informal group of Officials in Moscow reacted negatively to these former Soviet states. Measures included adopting a discussions, stating that any deployment of GUAM GUAM charter, introducing a secretary general and peacekeepers in the conflict zones would be scheduling regular high-level meetings. During the unacceptable to the regions in question, and that Ukrainian chairmanship ending this month, little this initiative was intended to disrupt the progress has nevertheless been made in terms of functioning of existing institutions and current CIS implementing the institutionalization process, and peacekeeping operations in Transnistria, Abkhazia neither the Ukrainian, nor the Moldovan and South Ossetia. GUAM was furthermore parliament has ratified the GUAM charter. It described as a mainly U.S.-supported organization remains to be seen whether Azerbaijan’s set on promoting anti-Russian policies. chairmanship starting in July will provide for more decisive steps toward granting GUAM credibility as Other discussions focused on enhancing the an international organization. possibilities for transporting Caspian energy resources to Europe through GUAM countries, bypassing Russia. The viability of these plans is

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 17

KULOV’S PROPOSAL TO JOIN RUSSIA PICKED UP BY KYRGYZ, RUSSIAN MEDIA Erica Marat

In early June, former Kyrgyz prime minister and campaigning in Kyrgyzstan “at the expense of current opposition leader Felix Kulov proposed that Russia”. Russian political expert Aleksey Kyrgyzstan join Russia in a confederation. Kulov’s Malashenko refuted Kulov’s initiative out of hand, initiative instantly attracted public attention to his calling it another “dead model” of regional persona and sparked widespread discussions in the cooperation. Some Russian newspapers discussed Kyrgyz and Russian media. the possibility of stronger integration of Kyrgyzstan By joining Russia, Kulov suggests the resolution of with Russia on par with other pro-Moscow states two pressing problems in Kyrgyzstan. First, like Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan and Belarus. alleviating the north-south divide, and second, At the June 25 press conference in Bishkek, the improving the national economy. In justifying his Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty proposal, Kulov referred to the 150-year history of Organization (CSTO), Nikolay Bordyuzha, stated Kyrgyz-Russian diplomatic relations and the wish that “such steps [in integration of two nations] are of the Kyrgyz people at all times to build stronger justified and realistic in regards to security goals. ties with Russia. But I think, the form is not important, the content Today, as Kulov asserted, hundreds of thousands of is.” In the future Russia might rely on Kulov’s idea Kyrgyz citizens depend on work in Russia and are in strengthening the CSTO and other similar ready to vote for joining the former imperial center. regional organizations. He also claimed that Russia will not decline the In Kyrgyzstan, Kulov’s idea of a confederation met proposal if Kyrgyzstan’s decision is confirmed with a mixed reaction. It tested the limits of even through a national referendum. Kulov intends to the most pro-Russian Kyrgyz politicians. Those collect the necessary 300,000 signatures to organize a who voiced their opinion on the matter were cynical referendum this fall. about Russia’s actual interest in having Kyrgyzstan After failing to force president Kurmanbek Bakiyev as a dependent country. According to commentaries to step down during the April 11-19 mass made in the Kyrgyz press, Russia is able to sustain demonstrations, Kulov fell out of the political life its geopolitical weight even without the former for almost two months. Some Kyrgyz experts Soviet states. It is by far a stronger international believe that by proposing a Russian-Kyrgyz actor today than in the early 1990s. confederation, Kulov tried to preempt similar Kyrgyzstan’s greater integration with Russia could intentions towards Russia on Bakiyev’s part. be fostered at the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Kulov’s proposal was met with sarcasm and Organization (SCO) summit on August 16. Indeed, skepticism in Russia. Mainly the Russian media Kulov’s proposal also impacts positively on Russian responded to Kulov, while government officials President Vladimir Putin’s public rating in Russia ignored the proposal altogether. The Russian and Kyrgyzstan. It indicates that Moscow does not newspaper Trud published an article titled “In need to play hardball to maintain the loyalty of the Kyrgyzstan, they don’t know what confederation current Kyrgyz government, of Kyrgyz society for means”, referring at the improbability of a Russian- that matter. Kyrgyz confederation. Another Russian newspaper, Kulov’s proposal granted pro-Russian state officials Nezavisimaya Gazeta, accused Kulov of the opportunity to show their appreciation of the

18 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 northern neighbor before the SCO summit. Speaker organization of the referendum, in order to prevent of Parliament Marat Sultanov compared Kulov’s Kulov’s growing popularity. idea of a Russian-Kyrgyz confederation with the Yet Kulov himself seems to be more interested in European Union, while First Deputy State the process rather than in the ends of his initiative. Secretary Adakhan Modumarov insisted that a legal He managed to re-enter political life after his April base for such a union is necessary. Last December, fiasco. As Kulov warned, if the government Murat Zhurayev, a Kyrgyz parliamentarian from intervenes into his initiative to organize a Batken, suggested entering the ruble zone in order referendum, he will once again mobilize masses to promote economic growth in Kyrgyzstan. against the president and parliament. The most ardent opponents of Kulov’s initiative Ironically, compared to Kulov’s idea, Kazakh warn that a confederation with Russia will president Nursultan Nazarbayev’s suggestion to inevitably lead to the loss of state sovereignty. create a Central Asian Union first with Kyrgyzstan However, the popular newspaper Bely Parohod, and later with the entire region did not provoke the which shares most of Kulov’s views, argues that same degree of discussion. Kyrgyzstan’s sovereignty is rather symbolic as the country depends on its larger neighbors. The Kulov’s suggestion is also an indirect contribution newspaper suggested that joining Russia is to the Kyrgyz government’s accumulating fissures inevitable, but the process needs “to be a clean with the United States over the military base in [initiative], not personified around any political Bishkek. As the SCO summit approaches, the figure”. Kyrgyz government is caught between Russia and the United States over its military cooperation. Collecting 300,000 signatures to organize a Anti-American views have been on the rise in referendum in Kyrgyzstan is not difficult if there Kyrgyzstan since the March 24 Tulip Revolution in are sufficient financial and human resources for the 2005. Had this suggestion arrived when Kyrgyz- project. However, the referendum itself might turn U.S. relations were at their zenith in 2001-2004, out to be a failure, being short of a majority vote. Russia might have reacted differently. The government will indeed try to prevent the

EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN LEAVES OPPOSITION FRUSTRATED Marat Yermukanov

At the joint session of the senate and majilis (lower representatives” and with a stroke of a pen dissolved chamber of Kazakh parliament) on June 19 Nurbakh the lower chamber of parliament. Rustemov, a member of parliament, read out a letter A day after majilis deputies issued a suicidal letter to President Nursultan Nazarbayev asking him to to the head of the state signed by 61 members of the dissolve the majilis which, in his words, “obstructs lower house, President Nazarbayev, speaking at the the reforms’ in the country. Nazarbayev was not meeting of the pro-presidential Nur Otan party, slow to respond to the “will of people’s announced his decision to dissolve the lower chamber of parliament. “Taking into consideration

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 19 the fact that in your appeal you expressed the parliamentary elections would be transparent, fair collective will of the people’s representatives which and open. Voters would be given the option of was supported by our national Nur Otan party, I either using electronic voting machines or casting would like to assure you that I take this step ballot papers. seriously and weighing all pros and cons I must take At first glance, parliamentary elections this year a decision which best answers the interests of have all the glamour of democratic voting. progressive development of our country,” he said Proportional representation and the involvement of addressing the deputies who had signed the letter. political parties into the election process on an A situation in which parliament members give up unprecedented scale are welcomed by opposition. their well-paid positions at their own will is However, the tight schedule of early parliamentary something from the domain of the surreal. But, at elections, which caught mainstream opposition closer look, there is a great deal of logic in the forces unprepared, greatly reduces the chances of “collective madness” of the majilis deputies. After political parties, other than the Nur Otan, to win President Nazarbayev initiated a number of seats in Parliament. Although in his political reform constitutional amendments last May, including new speech last May, Nursultan Nazarbayev promised election procedures and mechanisms for the financial aid from the state budget to political functioning of Parliament, majilis deputies found parties during the election campaign, Central themselves in a precarious situation. The current Election Committee chairman Turgankulov said the composition of majilis includes 77 deputies, but new regulations were still under consideration and according to the amendments to the election law, that political parties would have to rely on their their number should be increased up to 107. own financial sources in this year’s election According to new regulations, the senate members campaign. In this situation, only Nazarbayev’s Nur can take up the legislative functions of the majilis if Otan party, with its practically inexhaustible the majilis is dissolved by presidential decree before resources, will be in a favorable position. To make its term ends. It was clear since the introduction of problems more complicated for the opposition, the constitutional amendments that President government recently adopted a law preventing Nazarbayev sought early parliamentary elections political parties from uniting into election blocs. and that the dissolution of the majilis, whose term This restriction also gives Nur Otan, the most runs out in 2009, was waiting to happen. Doing powerful and numerous party, an incontestable what Nursultan Nazarbayev expected from them to advantage over other contenders. do, many majilis members hope to regain their seats The only option left for other political parties in in parliament in new elections or to receive good this circumstance is to merge with larger groups. positions in government. President Nazarbayev said Main opposition forces, such as the Nagyz Ak Zhol he appreciated the “historic decision” of the majilis Democratic Party and Socialist Democratic Party, members and that every former majilis deputy have already reached an agreement to form a single would “stay on board” and be given good jobs. party. Similar attempts to join forces were made by The Central Election Committee announced that the agrarian Adilet and Ak Zhol parties. The new elections to the majilis on party lists were agrarian Aul and the Party of Patriots seem to be scheduled for August 18, and elections of majilis pondering the possibilities of a merger. But chances members proposed by the Assembly of the People of are not as good among other political groups and Kazakhstan would be held on August 20. Regional factions. The Communist Party of Kazakhstan and elections to local legislative bodies (maslikhats) will the People’s Communist Party of Kazakhstan can be held simultaneously with those to the majilis. hardly gloss over their long-standing mutual The chairman of the Central Election Committee, accusations. The weak and ambiguous Rukhaniat Kuandyk Turgankulov, expressed confidence that party is simply ignored by others.

20 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007

The upcoming parliamentary elections are likely to Given the unequalled strong position of the ruling provoke the division of society along ethnic lines. Nur Otan party, the governing elite need not to Activists of Slavic national organizations hope for unnecessarily violate election procedures and resort more seats in parliament. On June 10, popular writer to dishonest tactics. The current pre-election setting Mukhtar Shakhanov announced the foundation of allows Nur Otan to win most of the seats in his Khalyk Rukhy (People’s Will) party which parliament without vote rigging or manipulating declares the promotion of Kazakh language and voting results. But it is already becoming clear that culture and the revival of national moral values as a most political parties will not have time even to priority goal. But it is not likely that Khalyk Rukhy, conduct a proper election campaign. if registered, will collect the necessary 50,000 signatures before the election.

GEORGIAN TAX INITIATIVE QUESTIONED Kakha Jibladze

Four months ago, Georgian President Mikheil exactly how much the new breakdown will help Saakashvili announced a new tax initiative. While businesses. the government has boasted it will significantly By doing the math, the total savings to a business lower the tax burden for businesses, tax experts and owner appears to be less than two percent – not opposition politicians are questioning who will truly exactly the tax break that dreams are made of. benefit from the changes. Especially considering the fact that Georgia already The new tax amendment basically consists of boasts of one of the most liberal tax codes in the abolishing the social tax (currently 20 percent of a region; since the Rose Revolution the number of worker’s salary), reducing the profit tax by five taxes has fallen from over 20 to less than ten. percent but doubling the income tax (from 12 In addition, it is not clear who will really benefit percent to 25 percent). from the new amendment. While business owners Although the president announced the changes and employers will pay about 1.6 percent less in during his state of the union address to the taxes than they were previously, their employees parliament in March, four months later the draft might have to pay considerably more. Adding to the law has still not been considered by parliament. confusion is the fact that in Georgia, many private However, the changes have already been written sector employees negotiate based on the net take into the budget for the next three years, including home pay – not the gross salary – so the tax burden calculations for how much the tax cut will cost the will actually fall back on the employers themselves. government: 134 million Lari in 2008 due to the five And those workers who negotiated based on the percent cut in profit tax and 20 million Lari from gross salary, which allegedly includes most the abolished social tax. government sector employees, will be hit with the Alex Aleksishvili, the finance minister, told 25 percent income tax. business people during a recent speech in Tbilisi Another gray area concerns those taxpayers who are that the idea of the tax is to encourage more currently exempt from paying the social tax – a businesses and more investments – thus making up large and varied group that includes everyone from for the initial blow to the budget with more overall landlords to some foreigners. Non-Governmental tax payers. Tax experts, however, have questioned Organizations could also be hard hit if their main

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 21 source of income, namely grants, is subjected to the make your employees’ lives more difficult. So we new law. should thoroughly study it in order to avoid any According to the current draft law prepared by the gaffes.” ministry of finance, taxpayers who were except Common wisdom holds that any tax break is good from the social tax will not be subject to the new tax news for business. However this initiative – as it is (which should come into force in January 2008) currently being promoted by the government – until January 2011. However it is not clearly spelled offers little to businesses and could potentially out in the draft code exactly who those tax payers create financial havoc for employees. are or what will occur in three years. Despite the fact that Georgia has one of the most During a fundraising dinner with business people in liberal tax codes in the region, it does not offer large May, President Saakashvili agreed that while his investors any real incentives to invest in the idea is to support businesses, employees should not country in terms of tax breaks. If the government is be responsible for the total burden. interested in promoting investment, looking into “I want us to thoroughly examine this [proposal]. creating tax breaks or lowering the country’s VAT The combined tax is aimed at making your life could have a bigger, more positive impact than the easer, but at the same time this new tax should not 1.6 percent initiative that is being considered now.

22 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007

NEWS DIGEST

KYRGYZ OPPOSITION SEEKS considering a special program on cooperation with REFERENDUM ON UNION WITH RUSSIA Afghanistan aimed at strengthening Kazakh 14 June investment, agricultural trade, and the delivery of The Kyrgyz opposition movement United Front for humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. Afghanistan is a Worthy Future for Kyrgyzstan on June 14 also seeking Kazakh assistance in developing the formally submitted documents to the Justice country's large but underdeveloped mining sector. Ministry requesting a national referendum to (RFE/RL) consider a proposal to form a union between Kyrgyzstan and Russia. An unnamed official from AZERBAIJANI POLICE FORCIBLY DISPERSE the Bishkek headquarters of the Ar-Namys DEMONSTRATION BY JOURNALISTS (Dignity) party, which is a part of the United Front, 15 June said the documents meet all the legal requirements Over 200 Azerbaijani police and security forces for a referendum, and added that "we hope that the forcibly dispersed on June 14 a demonstration in Justice Ministry will officially register our Baku by a group of 50 journalists protesting the campaign in the near future in line with the government's pressure on the media and prescribed procedures." The opposition is also suppression of freedom of speech, RFE/RL's seeking Justice Ministry registration of an Azerbaijani Service reported. Police initially "initiative group" created specifically to advocate arrested Rauf Arifoglu, the editor of the opposition holding the referendum, and requested official state- newspaper "Yeni Musavat," and two others before issued "identification cards" to assist members in releasing them later in the day. One unnamed collecting signatures throughout the country. protester required hospitalization after police used According to Kyrgyz law, any issue can be put forth force to break up the demonstration. An earlier plan in a referendum as long as at least 300,000 citizens to stage a rally to protest restrictions on media sign a supporting petition. Earlier in June, former freedom by the journalists' group the Union of Prime Minister Feliks Kulov, the leader of the Editors was recently postponed to June 23 after the United Front, explained that "a union with Russia Baku municipal authorities ordered that it must be will preserve the unity of Kyrgyzstan and its confined to within an area where extensive road people," and threatened to seek the dissolution of construction is under way. (RFE/RL) parliament if the Kyrgyz authorities failed to consider his proposal. (akipress.org) GEORGIAN SPEAKER URGES RUSSIA TO TAKE 'POSITIVE STEP' OVER SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN, AFGHANISTAN TO FORM OSSETIA CONFLICT INTERGOVERNMENTAL BODY 15 June 14 June Georgian parliament speaker Nino Burdjanadze In a statement released on June 14 in Astana, called on June 14 for Russia to take a "positive step" Kazakh Prime Minister Karim Masimov announced over the South Ossetia conflict, proposing that the creation of a bilateral Kazakh-Afghan Russia agree to joint control over the Roki tunnel intergovernmental commission to boost investment that connects South Ossetia with neighboring and trade ties. The agreement to form the body was North Ossetia. Burdjanadze added that Georgia is made in a meeting between Masimov and visiting "disposed toward continuing dialogue and Afghan First Vice President Ahmad Zia Mas'ud in promoting positive aspects" in its relationship with Astana earlier the same day. Masimov also noted Russia. She made the comments while that the Kazakh government is currently accompanying President Mikheil Saakashvili and

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 23

Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili on a state visit TURKMEN PRESIDENT CONCLUDES VISIT to France where they met with French President TO IRAN Nicolas Sarkozy and U.S. Undersecretary of State 16 May for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns in Paris. (Civil Turkmen President Gurbanguly Georgia) Berdymukhammedov returned to Ashgabat on June 16 after a two-day state visit to Iran, where he met EU ENVOY MEETS WITH ARMENIAN with Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad. In a OFFICIALS meeting in Tehran with the Iranian president and 15 June senior officials, Berdymukhammedov signed several Peter Semneby, the EU's special envoy for the bilateral agreements, including new accords to South Caucasus, met in Yerevan on June 15 with top expand railway links between the two countries. Armenian officials, including Prime Minister Serzh Trade between the two countries surpassed $1.3 Sarkisian, Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, and billion in 2006 and is expected to further increase as parliament speaker Tigran Torosian. Semneby the level of Turkmen gas exports to Iran is projected stressed the need for Armenia and Azerbaijan to to double this year. Berdymukhammedov also take "qualitative steps" and lay the foundation for formally invited the Iranian president to visit the peaceful solution of the Karabakh conflict. He Turkmenistan in the "near future." (ITAR-TASS) said the EU was disappointed that at their talks in St. Petersburg on June 9, the presidents of the two BOMBING DAMAGES TAJIK SUPREME countries failed to make further progress toward COURT BUILDING such a solution. Semneby also said that the opinion 18 June of the disputed region's population should be taken An explosion on June 16 struck the Tajik Supreme into account. Sarkisian for his part criticized Court building in the capital Dushanbe, RFE/RL's Azerbaijan's steadily increasing defense spending Tajik Service reported. No one was hurt in the and the "lack of positive impulses" from Baku, explosion, although windows were shattered and a which he contrasted with Armenia's "constructive" part of the structure was damaged. Dushanbe's chief approach to resolving the conflict. He ruled out prosecutor, Kurbonali Mukhabbatov, contended that unilateral concessions on the part of Armenia, "terrorists" may have been behind the attack, which saying a solution should be based on mutual he said was "aimed at intimidation." The incident compromise. (Noyan Tapan) appears to be linked to a series of explosions in January and June 2005 that Tajik authorities have KYRGYZ PREMIER REMAINS attributed to a banned group known as the Islamic HOSPITALIZED IN TURKEY Movement of Uzbekistan. The bombing also 15 June coincides with the first anniversary of three smaller Kyrgyz Prime Minister Almazbek Atambaev is explosions in different places in Dushanbe, which continuing to receive medical treatment in a also did not result in any injuries. (RFE/RL) Turkish hospital, but is reported to "feel well" and in stable condition. Turkish Prime Minister Recep KAZAKH PRESIDENT'S FORMER SON-IN- Tayyip Erdogan visited Atambaev on June 13 and LAW ISSUES APOLOGY discussed several issues in an hourlong meeting, 18 June including trade and economic relations and In an interview published in Kazakhstan's measures to promote Turkish investment in "Vremya" newspaper on June 16, Rakhat Aliev, the Kyrgyzstan. Atambaev is being treated for former son-in-law of Kazakh President Nursultan complications after being poisoned by an unknown Nazarbaev, said he is "prepared to answer toxin, which his doctors said caused "acute toxic personally to the president" for his recent "political hepatitis of indeterminate aetiology," or origin. statements," and offered "apologies" to Nazarbaev. Atambaev says that he became seriously ill from Aliev, who until recently was married to drinking water in his office on May 11, and that he Nazarbaev's eldest daughter, Darigha Nazarbaeva, was unconscious for two days after the incident. A said he regretted a May 26 speech in which he round of medical tests confirmed that Atambaev decried the "curtailment of democratic processes in was poisoned (RFE/RL) Kazakhstan," adding that the speech "was made in a fit of passion." He also stressed that he has not spoken out against the recently adopted

24 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 constitutional amendment allowing Nazarbaev to counterpart Viktor Yushchenko and Moldovan run for the presidency an unlimited number of Prime Minister Vasile Tarlev arrived in the Azeri times. A former Kazakh ambassador to Austria, capital on Monday to attend the summit, which Aliev is now facing extradition to Kazakhstan on will also involve Polish President Lech Kaczynski, criminal charges relating to the abduction and Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus and assault of two senior officials of Nurbank, a bank officials from other countries. Security, the fight Aliev controls. The officials' abduction was against international terrorism, ways to ensure the allegedly intended to force them to sell their security of transport corridors, and economic and interests in a building in Almaty. Meanwhile, in humanitarian integration are expected to dominate comments during a visit to the northern city of the event's agenda. A declaration and a number of Ustkamenogorsk, President Nazarbaev said on June other documents are to be adopted at the end of the 15 that he opposes a constitutional amendment that summit. (Interfax) lifted the limit on the number of terms he can serve as president, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported. AZERBAIJAN READY FOR JOINT USE OF The Kazakh parliament voted last month to remove GABALA RADAR BY RUSSIA, U.S. - DEFENSE the term limits for Kazakhstan's first president, MINISTER allowing Nazarbaev, whose current term runs 20 June through 2012, to run as many times as he likes. Azerbaijan is prepared for the joint use of the Nazarbaev added that he "did not propose this Gabala radar station by Russia and the United amendment" and noted that he actually "reduced the States, Azeri Defense Minister Safar Abiyev told presidential term from seven to five years and Interfax. "During today's bilateral meeting in proposed that a president should be elected for a Moscow with Russian Defense Minister Anatoly maximum of two successive terms." He did, Serdyukov, we confirmed Azerbaijan's preparedness however, sign the constitutional amendment into for the joint use by Russia and the U.S. of the radar law after parliament approved it. (RFE/RL) station in Gabala and signed a relevant protocol," Abiyev said. (Interfax-AVN) FATHER CLAIMS AZERBAIJANI YOUTH ACTIVIST MALTREATED IN JAIL NAZARBAYEV DISSOLVES LOWER 18 June CHAMBER OF KAZAKH PARLIAMENT Jalal Bashirli has written to Council of Europe 20 June Secretary-General Terry Davis and to Andres Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has Herkel, the Estonian parliamentarian who serves as announced the dissolution of the 3rd Majlis, the the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of lower chamber of the parliament. The president Europe's rapporteur for Azerbaijan, to solicit their explained his decision by an address from a number help in securing the release of his son, Ruslan. of Majlis members he received on Tuesday, in Ruslan Bashirli, a leading member of the youth which the parliamentarians said they did not want organization Yeni Fikir (New Idea), was arrested in to obstruct the implementation of political reform in August 2005 and sentenced 11 months later to seven the country. (Interfax) years' imprisonment on charges, which he denies, of accepting money from Armenian intelligence to try to overthrow the Azerbaijani leadership in the run- NAZARBAYEV'S DAUGHTER CONFIRMS up to the November 2005 parliamentary elections. HER DIVORCE Jalal Bashirli claimed his son is being subjected to 20 June mental and physical abuse in jail. (day.az) Dariga Nazarbayeva, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev's daughter, has confirmed that she and Rakhat Aliyev have divorced. "There are indeed a GUAM SUMMIT TO OPEN IN BAKU ON lot of rumors. I can confirm only one of them - TUESDAY about the divorce. This was a difficult trial for my 19 June family. I can only add that this was a painful and A summit of the GUAM organization, which deliberate choice on my part," Nazarbayeva, a includes Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and parliament member, told local media. Aliyev Moldova, is to open in Baku on Tuesday. Georgian announced in an earlier interview that his marriage President Mikheil Saakashvili, his Ukrainian

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007 25 with Nazarbayeva was officially ended at an Surgery Institute Director, Leo Bakeria, told Almaty court on June 6. (Interfax) Interfax that, "several dozen children suffering from congenital heart problems have been selected for FOUR DEFENSE MINISTRY SERVICEMEN emergency surgery." "Massive medical checkups on KILLED IN ARMED CLASH IN GROZNY children were impossible in the troubled Chechnya, 21 June which made serious health problems common Four servicemen from the West battalion of the among children," Bakeria said. (Interfax) Russian Defense Ministry's 42nd motorized rifle division were killed in an armed clash in the PUTIN, ERDOGAN HAIL RUSSIAN- Staropromyslovsky district of Grozny on TURKISH RELATIONS Wednesday night, a local police source told Interfax 25 June on Thursday. Traffic police stopped an UAZ jeep President Vladimir Putin met with Turkish Prime without license plates at a checkpoint on Minister Recep Erdogan on Monday. Staropromyslovskoye Highway on Wednesday The Turkish administration is grateful for Putin's evening, suspecting that the driver, who was a attendance at the Black Sea Economic Cooperation trainee from the West battalion, could have been Organization summit, Erdogan said. Putin's drunk. (Interfax) meetings in Istanbul were fruitful and Russian- Turkish relations are developing well, he said. ANOTHER AMNESTY POSSIBLE FOR Bilateral trade stands at $21 billion and investment is CHECHEN MILITANTS – PATRUSHEV rising steadily, a source told Interfax. (Interfax) 22 June Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) head TURKEY SAYS AGREES WITH AZERBAIJAN Nikolai Patrushev believes that another offer of ON SHAKH DENIZ amnesty could be extended to members of illegal 25 June armed groups, although he cautioned against Turkey and Azerbaijan have resolved problems and repeating such actions too often. "I think it is reached an agreement on the Shakh Deniz project possible to issue another appeal; however, of course that will transport Caspian natural gas to European it cannot be done too often," Patrushev said in the markets, Turkey's energy minister said on Monday. Federation Council on Friday when asked whether "It is out of the question that Turkey and it was possible to offer another amnesty to militants Azerbaijan go to arbitration. I met (Azerbaijan's this fall. Patrushev said that, judging by the results Industry and Energy Minister Natik) Aliyev last of previous appeals, "the action was useful and well night and made an agreement on this issue," Hilmi organized." (Interfax) Guler told Reuters on the sidelines of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organisation's summit. OVER 30 MLN RUBLES RAISED IN Turkey -- which is seeking to become an energy CHECHNYA TO HELP SICK CHILDREN transit hub for the region -- had hoped to ship Azeri 24 June gas to Greece at the end of July but now expects this Thirty-five million rubles have been collected in the to be delayed to August. Azerbaijan produced Health of the Nation charitable action in Chechnya natural gas at the Shakh Deniz field for a brief on Saturday to be spent on the medical treatment of period in December but could not pump gas to children with congenital heart problems. "Initially, Turkey due to technical problems, which have we planned to raise 10 million rubles, but the result halved this year's production forecast. Turkey has has surpassed all our expectations," Chechen pressed Baku to ensure a sustained flow of sufficient presidential chief of staff Abdulkakhir Izraiilov told volumes of gas in the coming months and fulfil its Interfax on Sunday. "People kept coming to the contract pledges on delivery. The price of gas was Dynamo stadium in Grozny, where the TV another issue that remained to be resolved between marathon was being held, to the last minute. The Turkey and Azerbaijan. Turkey produces almost no action continued late into the night," he said. "Some natural gas or oil but is an important transit route would donate large sums on condition of from energy-rich Caspian and Central Asian anonymity, while others would bring a mere ten countries to Europe. The $4 billion Shakh Deniz rubles, but all of them contributed to an effort to project is operated jointly by BP and Norway's save children," Izraiilov said. The Bakulev Heart Statoil. (Reuters)

26 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 June 2007

BLACK SEA ECONOMIC COOPERATION alternative to the planned defense system in Europe, ORGANIZATION WON'T DISCUSS De Hoop Scheffer told a news conference at CONFLICTS - LAVROV Interfax headquarters in Moscow on Tuesday. 25 June (Interfax) The jubilee summit of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization will discuss only issues OIL GIANT IRAN INTRODUCES GAS that are defined in the organization's charter, RATIONING Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the 27 June media in Istanbul. "An attempt to consider political Gasoline rationing was introduced in Iran on issues, which obviously cannot be resolved in this Wednesday despite the country's status as the format, would be unpromising," he said in answer to second highest OPEC crude oil producer. Iran has a a question whether the summit may discuss the huge crude reserve but minimal refining capacity settlement of conflicts in the Black Sea zone. and therefore imports about 40 percent of its refined (Interfax) gasoline, Alalam Satellite TV reported from Tehran. Gasoline is heavily subsidized in Iran and NATO: AZERBAIJAN RADAR CANNOT BE even after Tehran imposed a 25 percent price hike, WEST'S MISSILE SHIELD the price was raised to 11 cents a liter -- roughly 44 26 June cents a gallon, the report said. In a statement on NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer state television, the Oil Ministry said private cars said that a Russian proposal for the United States to would be rationed to about 25 gallons of gas per use a radar in Azerbaijan would not shield the West month, while licensed taxis would be eligible for 200 from possible missile attacks by so-called "rogue gallons. There was no indication given as to how states." The radar, at Gabala, could not be an long the rationing would remain in effect. (UPI)