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Identifying Private Equity Opportunities in Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand Sponsored By: JL Capital

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Identifying Private Equity Opportunities in Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand Sponsored By: JL Capital Identifying Private Equity Opportunities in Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand Sponsored by: JL Capital Private Equity- Section AB Hill P., Matteo Ferrante, Neha Dodeja, Pratiksha Barasia, Uday Mehra (MBA Class of 2020 July) Executive Summary Opportunities in Fintech in Indonesia Opportunities in Consumer Retail in Vietnam Opportunities in Food Manufactoring in Thailand 2 Executive Summary • JL Capital is looking to make its first investment in SEA by focusing on promising indsutries in specific countries • The shortlisted industries represent (i) easy to understand market dynamics and business models (ii) potential JL Capital opportunities within the right ticket size (iii) underinvestment in the particular sector • Fintech space is nascent but shows promise for a massive increase in TAM led by high TPV • Payments is the entry point for consumers, paving the future for Lending; Fintech lending can bridge the gap for unutilized financing capacity and access to credit in Indonesia Indonesia • SME lending is attractive and presents opportunities for investment from JL Capital • Consumer retail is a fast-growing investment space in Vietnam with strong sales growth • E-commerce penetration is on the rise in Vietnam, however, retail players with offline presence are expected to succeed in online channels Vietnam • A potential investment target, market leader in baby retail, fits the relevant factors required for success • Thailand is the kitchen of the world: Food processing contributes 23% of Thailand’s GDP • Packaged food shows a strong demand forecast in APAC with a focus on ready meal in Thai market Thailand • Recommend to target healthy ready meal, frozen fruits or halal food segment by local producers 3 Process JL Capital to shortlist Deep-dive into Identify 1-2 potential Identify 3-4 industries 3 industries based on selected industries to deals in total (only if in target countries interest and core understand growing possible, or else share capabilities sub-sectors transcripts of conversations) First presentation to JL Second discussion to talk Final discussion to present Capital about shortlisted industries final results and discuss next steps 4 Executive Summary Opportunities in Fintech in Indonesia Opportunities in Consumer Retail in Vietnam Opportunities in Food Manufactoring in Thailand 5 The Fintech space in Indonesia is nascent - but shows promise for a massive increase in TAM led by high TPV1 Total Addressable Market (TAM) for the Fintech space in E-Money is a small fraction of total electronic payments in Indonesia Indonesia expected to grow by ~8x by 2025… 100% 90% 80% US$ Bn 70% 8.15x 60% 95.2 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 8.0% 10.4 0% 1.8% 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2019 2025E E-money Credit cards Debit cards …mainly driven by 4 key consumer trends Fintech loans in Indonesia are only 0.2% of total outstanding loans 800 0.40 730 690 1• Massive promotional spend: Mostly by Fintechs, e-Commerce 700 0.35 625 platforms and ride-hailing (mostly Payments led) 595 600 560 580 570 0.30 • Rising smartphone penetration: Risen from 25% in 2014 to >60% in 500 2 500 0.25 2019 400 • Growing internet TAM: Driven by Indonesia’s young, hyper internet- 400 360 0.20 3 engaged population, increasing disposable incomes 300 0.15 • Burgeoning offline use cases: Rising Fintech adoption by shopping 200 0.10 4 malls, Co-funding by merchants 100 0.05 0 0.00 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Fintech loans outstanding (US$ Mn) Fintech loans as % of total IDR loans Notes: (1) Total Payment Volume 6 Sources: OJK, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bank Indonesia, Macquarie Research Payments is the entry point for consumers, paving the future for Lending Traditional Fintech service adoption cycle by consumers Payments & Transactions Lending Financial Products 41 companies hold an e-Money license (as on Feb’20) 164 lending companies registered with OJK (Dec’19) E-commerce platforms are main players x Highly concentrated market: Top 4-5 players ✔ Fragmented market landscape: No clear Small market: Very small market size and control >90% of transaction market share; market leader; Long tail of companies own >1% ~ growth due to low capital market penetration High-ticket investments will be required to enter of total loan share and financial literacy the market ✔ Under-penetrated market: Fintech loans in Low interest-generating business models: Evolving regulatory landscape: Bank Indonesia are only 0.2% of total outstanding x In a typical Fintech lifecycle, value is generated ~ Indonesia has launched QRIS to unify QR code loans through Payments & Lending first; Indonesia is based cashless payments; Reduces barriers to not at a stage to generate meaningful returns entry for new players Unaddressable market by traditional banks: from Financial Products ✔ Fintechs lending to SMEs are targeting invoice Significant growth potential: Only 1.8%1 of financing; Traditional banks have lengthy credit Consumer behaviour not shifting: This ✔ electronic payments in Indonesia happen approval processes for this segment ~ sector is primarily dominated by banks in through e-Money; ~8% e-Money transactions Indonesia; Despite e-commerce platforms, no expected by 2025 shift seen in consumer behaviour Notes: (1) 2019 estimates by Bank Indonesia 7 Sources: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bank Indonesia, Macquarie Research Fintech lending can bridge the gap for unutilized financing capacity and access to credit in Indonesia Low percentage of loan disbursements to GDP1 indicate an Majority of SMEs, middle & lower income individuals still unutilized financing capacity in Indonesia do not have access to credit in Indonesia2 Australia 122% Total MSMEs Total Individuals 63 Mn 186 Mn South Korea 94% New Zealand 92% Thailand 78% 74% 71% USA 78% Japan 57% China 49% Low percentage of Debt wrt GDP is directly 29% Indonesia 17% attributed to lower access to credit for 26% SMEs and low/middle income individuals India 11% MSMEs Middle/Lower Income Individuals Have access to credit No access to credit Notes: (1) Ratio taken based on 2017 figures (2) As of 2018 end 8 Sources: International Monetary Fund, Asian Development Bank, Central Bureau of Statistics (ID), Ministry of Cooperative and MSME (ID), Central Bank of Indonesia, PwC SME lending is an attractive business model generating higher financing rates than traditional banks Fintech lending market in Indonesia Short-term consumer loans P2P loans targeted at SMEs P2P microfinance Avg. ticket size ($): 70 Avg. ticket size ($): 140,000 Avg. ticket size ($): 200-350 Avg. loan tenure: 1-3 months Avg. loan tenure: 0.5-6 months Avg. loan tenure: 3 months Major players: Major players: Major players: Platform1 • Major product offered by SME Outstanding credit (IDR Bn) 234 529 267 lenders is Invoice Financing Total credit underwritten (IDR Bn) 1,163 2,940 2,430 extending credit for up to 80% of the receivable value. NPLs2 1.05% 2.30% 8.0% • Traditional banks can’t engage in Active borrowers 1,776 1,193 15,436 this business due to lengthy credit Invoice financing rates (p. a.) 13-43% 12-20% 12-26% approval processes, so they have started acquiring minority stakes Borrower upfront fee 3-5% 3-5% 3% in SME lending platforms Banks having a minority stake - Notes: (1) Numbers as of November 2019 (2) NPLs: Non-performing loans 9 Sources: OJK, Bank Indonesia, Macquarie Research, Company Reports Only a handful of venture deals have taken place within the Fintech SME lending space in Indonesia over the last 5 years Mar’20: $23.5 Mn (C) Jun’19: $12 Mn (B) Feb’20: $10 Mn (B) Sep’19: $8.6 Mn (A) Nov’19: $1 Mn (B) Aug’19: $10 Mn (B) Dec’18: $0.2 Mn (S) Aug’18: $16.5 Mn (A) Potential investment option1 Nov’18: $4.3 Mn (A) Apr’16: $1.2 Mn (S) Sep’19: $1 Mn (S) Notes: (1) Investment recommendation based on industry, competitor and company analysis (not including financials) 10 Sources: Prequin Modalku: A potential investment option in Indonesia for JL Capital Indonesia Singapore, Malaysia Present as Dec’19: Undisclosed amount of Debt funding Apr’20: $40 Mn (C) by existing investors and by Triodos Microfinance Fund, Triodos Fair an undisclosed bank Share Fund Funding Rounds Apr’18: $25 Mn (B) led by SoftBank Apr’16: $1.2 Mn (S) led by Alpha JWC Ventures, Sequoia India, Alpha JWC Ventures and Singapore Press Holdings Ventures, Golden Gate Ventures $900 Mn Total amount disbursed1 $948 Mn 52% loans greater than $10,000 Biggest ticket size segment 51% loans less than $11,000 8.0%3 Current default rate 3.36% • Modalku is one of the 3 leading Fintech lending providers for SMEs in Indonesia, however it has not raised an equity round since 2016 • Modalku’s 2 main competitors – Investree and KoinWorks – have raised fresh funding in the last 1 year to increase their geographic footprint in Indonesia and for expansion to other Southeast Asian countries • Modalku raised debt in 2019, showing promise of using Leverage to boost Equity returns for the company’s business model • Comparison of both geographies shows that Modalku will require an influx of capital in Indonesia to improve its infrastructure for bringing down default rates and expanding its geographic reach in Indonesia Notes: (1) As of Q2 2020 (Ongoing – Figures for 19 Apr 2020) (2) As percentage of overall loans disbursed (3) As per Macquarie Research 11 Sources: Modalku website, Funding Societies website Expanding the coverage for Indonesia’s “Credit Invisible” requires a tailored and innovative approach 1 • Since 2018, 70% of borrowers have
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