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Indicators of Crime and Criminal Justice: Quantitative Studies U.S. Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics Indicators of crime and criminal justice: Quantitative studies NCJ-62349, June 1980 Edited by STEPHEN E. FIENBERG Department of Statistics and Department of Social Science Carnegie-Mellon University ALBERT J. REISS, JR. Department of Sociology Yale University PROPERTY OF National Crimina! Justice Aelerence Service (PdCJRS) Box 6003 Wockville, hPiD 20849-66'00 For sale by the Superintendent of Doculuents, U.S. Government Prilltiug OWce, Wasliington, D.C. 20402 U.S; Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics Harry A. Sum,Ph. D. Director The Social Science Research Council is a private nonprofit organization formed for the purpose of advancing research in the social sciences. It emphasizes the planning, appraisal, and stimulation of research that offers promise of increasing knowledge in social science or of increasing its usefulness to society. It is also concerned with the develoument of better research methods. irnpro;ement of the quality and accessibil- ity of materials for research by social scien- tists, and augmentation of resources and facilities for their research. The Council's Center for Coordination of Research on Social Indicators was estab- lished in September 1972, under a grant from the Division of Social Sciences, Na- tional Science Foundation (grant number GS-34219; currently SOC-77-21686). The Center's purpose is to ahance the contri- bution of social science research to the de- velopment of a broad range of indicators of social change, in response to current and anticipated demands from both research and policy communities. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Main entry under title: Indicators of crime and criminal justice. Based on research initiated during the Workshop in Criminal Justice Statistics, held in the summer of 1975 by the Social Science Research Council. "NCJ-62349." Includes bibliographical references. Supt of Docs. no.: J 29.2:1n2 1. Criminal statistics-Addresses, essays, lectures. I. Fienberg, Stephen E. 11. Reiss, Albert J. 111. Workshop in Criminal Justice Statistics, 1975. 1V. Social Science Research Council. HV6018.152 364 80-607926 This project was supported by Grant No. 75-SS-99- 6017, awarded to the Social Science Research Council by the Statistics Division, National Criminal Justice Information and Statistics Service, Law Enforcement Assistance Administration(n0w Bureau of Justice Sta- tistics), U.S. Department of Justice, under the Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act of 1968, as amended. The project,entitlednWorkshopandFellow- ship in Criminal Justice Statistics," was directed forthe Social Science Research Council by David Seidman and monitored by Paul D. White of BJS. Points of view or opinions stated in this document are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the U.S. Department ofJustice. LEAA authorizes any person to reproduce, publish, translate, or otherwise useallor any part of the material in this publication, with the exception of those items indicating that they are copyrighted by or reprinted by permission from any other source. Preface The topics on which they focused were the One of the most pleasing outcomes of'the treatment of data in victimization surveys; workshop (at least to us) has been the con- The Social Science Research Council's measurement and experimental design in tinuing work of the participants and faculty Center for Coordination of Research on the study of police effectiveness; the sen- on methodological problems in criminal Social Indicators, organized in 1972, has tencing process; decisionmaking by the justice research. They have been intimately had an ongoing interest in promotingqual- U.S. Board of Parole; the deterrent effect involved in such activities as: (a) the ity research in the area of criminal justice of capital punishment; and the problem of National Academy of Sciencies-National statistics, especially at a national level. To designing a model of the criminal justice Research Council's Committee on Law this end, the Center's Advisory and Plan- system. Enforcement and Criminal Justiceand that ning Committee created in 1973 a special Committee's Panels on Deterrence and The papers in the present volume are a Incapacitation, and on Rehabilitation, (b) Subcommittee on Criminal Justice Sta- direct outgrowth of research initiated tistics, whose focus has been on under- the NAS-NRC Committee on National during or as a result of the workshop activ- Statistics and that Committee's Panel on standing and measuring aspects of crime ities. Earlier drafts of many of the papers and the criminal justice system. the National Crime Survey, (c) the Ameri- were presented and discussed at a work- can Statistical Association's Committee on The present volume can be traced back to a shop reunion which took the form of a con- Law and Criminal Justice Statistics, and meeting of the members of the Subcommit- ference held in the fall of 1977, again (d) SSRC's Advisory and Planning Com- tee with staff at the Law Enforcement sponsored by LEAA. The first paper in this mittee on Social Indicators. They have also Assistance Administration (LEAA) to dis- volume reports on the highlights of that initiated new research projects on a wide cuss research projects of mutual interest. conference, and provides an overview to variety of problems in the area. This con- The two of us (Stephen E. Fienberg and the frontiers of quantitative research in this tinued activity is perhaps the best indicator Albert J. Reiss, Jr.) were convinced that an area. The remaining sections of the volume of the success of the Workshop. upgrading of the quality of research in the are organized in large part around the criminal justice area could be affected research produced by the six working Almost as pleasing are the many profes- through the recruitment of statisticians and groups from 'the workshop. sional collaborations and personal friend- other quantitative social scientists to work ships that developed among those who The faculty of the workshop consisted of took part in the Workshop. These go far on interesting statistical modelling and Albert D. Biderman, Bureau of Social analysis projects in the area. We therefore beyond the work reported on in this Science Research (Washington, D.C.); volume. proposed to hold a workshop focussing on Alfred ~lumxn,Carnegie-Mellon Univer- the methodological and theoretical prob- sity; John Clark, University of Minnesota; We acknowledge with thanks the contribu- lems involved in the measurement af crime ~ichaelJ. Hindelang, State University of tions of David Seidman of the Social and its effects on society. New York at Albany; Albert J. Reiss, Jr., Science Research Council, and of Elaine Thus it was that in the summer of 1975, the Yale University; Richard Sparks, Rutgers Javonovich, his assistant, who staffed the Social Science Research Council, with University; and Leslie T. Wilkins, State Workshop; and of the staff and director of funding from LEAA* (now the Bureau of University of New York at Albany. the Council's Center for Social Indicators for their support and interest. Special Justice Statistics), organized a month-long The social scientist participants in the Workshop in Criminal Justice Statistics. thanks are due to Nancy McManus of the workshop were David W. Britt, Florida Social Science Research Council, who The workshop brought together three Atlantic University (currently at Nova Uni- groups: a faculty composed of seven worked closely with us in structuring the versity); William B. Fairley, Harvard Uni- volume, extracting manuscripts from experts in criminal justice; seven partici- versity (currently a private consultant); pants who were young academic statis- authors, and copyediting the entire volume. Stephen E. Fienberg, University of Minne- Ms. McManus was responsible for seeing ticians, sociologists, and psychologists; sota; Gary G. Koch, University of North and six government professionals. the manuscript through to completion, and Carolina; Kinley Larntz, University of we are indebted to her for her assistance. The workshop's program of activities Minnesota; Colin Loftin, Brown Univer- started with a series of lectures and semi- sity (currently at the University of Michi- STEPHENE. RENBERG nars and concluded with the organization gan); and Howard Wainer, University of ALBERT J. REISS,JR. of the faculty and the participants into six Chicago (currently at the Bureau of Social working groups. Among the topics covered Science Research). at the plenary meetings were conceptions Government professionals participating in of the criminal justice system, data sources, the workshop were Ken Brimmer, Mimi research approaches, methodological and Cantwell, Linda Murphy, Tom Petersik, substantive problems, and theoretical and J. Frederick Shenk, all of the U.S. issues. The intensive interchange at these Bureau of the Census; and Cynthia sessions sparked a high degree of interest in Turnure, Minnesota Governor's Commis- the six working groups, each of which then sion on Crime Prevention and Control. undertook a concentrated exploration of a problem area in criminal justice research. 'Grant No. 7533-994017. Abstract The quantitative study of criminal justice is a rapidly expanding field, involving the application of relatively sophisticated sta- tistical methods and probabilistic models. This volume brings together some of the products of a workshop in criminal justice statistics sponsored by the Social Science
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