Adapting Institutions to Climate Change CHAIRMAN : SIR JOHN LAWTON CBE, FRS Twenty-eighth Report Adapting Institutions to Climate Change Presented to Parliament by Command of Her Majesty March 2010 Cm 7843 £26.60 The cover image of an adaptation snakes and ladders board depicts some of the risks and opportunities presented by climate change. A key to the images is provided below: 2: Elderly lady warm at home in the winter 6: New crop opportunities – vines 15: Cracked soil as a result of drought 17: Increased UK tourism 18: Extreme weather 21: Increased risk of flooding 22: New species in UK – dragonfly 24: New crops – sunflowers 29: Increased winter temperatures 31: Loss of species – purple saxifrage 34: Increased UK tourism – more cars on the road 39: Increased average temperatures 45: People queuing for drinking water 47: Species loss – dotterel The cover image was drawn for the RCEP by Guy Allen. © Crown Copyright 2010 The text in this document (excluding the Royal Arms and other departmental or agency logos) may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium providing it is reproduced accurately and not used in a misleading context. The material must be acknowledged as Crown copyright and the title of the document specified. Where we have identified any third party copyright material you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned. For any other use of this material please contact the Office of Public Sector Information, Information Policy Team, Kew, Richmond, Surrey TW9 4DU or e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN: 9780101784320 Printed in the UK by The Stationery Office Limited on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office ID 2349252 03/10 Printed on paper containing 75% recycled fibre content minimum. PREVIOUS RE P ORTS BY THE ROYAL COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION Special report Artificial Light in the Environment November 2009 27th report Novel Materials in the Environment: The case of nanotechnology Cm 7468, November 2008 26th report The Urban Environment Cm 7009, March 2007 Special report Crop Spraying and the Health of Residents and Bystanders September 2005 25th report Turning the Tide – Addressing the Impact of Fisheries on the Marine Environment Cm 6392, December 2004 Special report Biomass as a Renewable Energy Source April 2004 24th report Chemicals in Products – Safeguarding the Environment and Human Health Cm 5827, June 2003 Special report The Environmental Effects of Civil Aircraft in Flight September 2002 23rd report Environmental Planning Cm 5459, March 2002 22nd report Energy – The Changing Climate Cm 4749, June 2000 21st report Setting Environmental Standards Cm 4053, October 1998 20th report Transport and the Environment – Developments since 1994 Cm 3752, September 1997 19th report Sustainable Use of Soil Cm 3165, February 1996 18th report Transport and the Environment Cm 2674, October 1994 17th report Incineration of Waste Cm 2181, May 1993 16th report Freshwater Quality Cm 1966, June 1992 15th report Emissions from Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles Cm 1631, September 1991 14th report GENHAZ – A system for the critical appraisal of proposals to release genetically modified organisms into the environment Cm 1557, June 1991 13th report The Release of Genetically Engineered Organisms to the Environment Cm 720, July 1989 12th report Best Practicable Environmental Option Cm 310, February 1988 11th report Managing Waste: The Duty of Care Cm 9675, December 1985 10th report Tackling Pollution – Experience and Prospects Cm 9149, February 1984 9th report Lead in the Environment Cm 8852, April 1983 8th report Oil Pollution of the Sea Cm 8358, October 1981 7th report Agriculture and Pollution Cm 7644, September 1979 6th report Nuclear Power and the Environment Cm 6618, September 1976 5th report Air Pollution Control: An Integrated Approach Cm 6371, January 1976 4th report Pollution Control: Progress and Problems Cm 5780, December 1974 3rd report Pollution in Some British Estuaries and Coastal Waters Cm 5054, September 1972 2nd report Three Issues in Industrial Pollution Cm 4894, March 1972 First report Cm 4585, February 1971 iii ROYAL COMMISSION ON ENVI R ONM E NTAL POLLUTION Twenty-eighth Report To the Queen’s Most Excellent Majesty MAY IT P L EA S E YOUR MA J E S TY We, the undersigned Commissioners, having been appointed ‘to advise on matters, both national and international, concerning the pollution of the environment; on the adequacy of research in this field; and the future possibilities of danger to the environment’; And to enquire into any such matters referred to us by one of Your Majesty’s Secretaries of State or by one of Your Majesty’s Ministers, or any other such matters on which we ourselves shall deem it expedient to advise: HUMB L Y S UBMIT TO YOUR MA J E S TY THE FO ll OWING REPORT . v “Adapt or perish, now as ever, is nature’s inexorable imperative.” H.G. Wells (1866-1946) More information about the current work of the Royal Commission can be obtained from its website at http://www.rcep.org.uk or from the Secretariat at Room 108, 55 Whitehall, London SW1A 2EY. vi Contents Paragraph Page Chapter 1 1 INT R ODU C TION Adaptation 1.8 2 Mitigation and adaptation 1.11 3 The scale of the challenge 1.14 4 Conclusion 1.23 5 Chapter 2 6 SE TTING TH E S ce N E Introduction 2.1 6 Impacts of current UK weather 2.5 6 Global climate change 2.8 7 The changing UK climate 2.16 9 Forecasting future change 2.19 10 Future UK climate 2.21 11 Possible effects of UK climate change on the exemplars, and implications for institutional arrangements 2.38 18 Freshwater 2.39 18 Demand for water 2.44 19 Water quality 2.49 20 Drought 2.58 21 Flooding 2.61 22 The impact on water management planning 2.67 23 The coastal zone 2.68 23 Coastal squeeze 2.74 25 Coastal erosion and flooding 2.75 26 Addressing threats to the coastline 2.80 27 Biodiversity 29 Climate envelopes and their consequences 2.83 29 Alien species 2.92 31 Changes in timing of life cycles 2.95 31 Unravelling species assemblages 2.97 31 Change and loss of habitats 2.99 32 Ecosystem services 2.102 33 Maintaining the status quo will be impossible 2.103 33 Chapter 3 34 INSTITUTIONAL A rr ANG E M E NTS Introduction 3.1 34 Policies and programmes for climate change 3.5 34 Reporting 3.20 41 Planning regimes 3.29 44 Institutions for water, coastal erosion and nature conservation 3.45 48 vii Contents Management of water 3.48 49 Water quality 3.50 49 Water supply and wastewater treatment 3.55 52 Flooding 3.61 54 Managing coastal erosion and the risk of inundation 3.72 56 Institutional arrangements for nature conservation and biodiversity 3.95 61 Conclusion 3.109 64 Chapter 4 65 ADA P TING TO C LIMAT E C HANG E : DE V E LO P ING INSTITUTIONAL re S P ONS E S Introduction 4.1 65 What are the challenges of climate change adaptation? 4.5 65 Uncertainty 4.6 66 Complexity 4.15 68 Path dependency 4.18 69 Equity and efficiency 4.28 71 Equity 4.29 71 Efficiency 4.36 73 Addressing the challenges 4.43 74 Framing 4.50 76 The role of climate in relation to the key missions of an institution 4.54 78 The role of other relevant actors in partnerships 4.56 80 Competition with other goals 4.59 81 The tendency to ‘short-termism’ in decision making 4.64 82 The existence of different values and interests 4.66 82 Implementation 4.71 83 Up-scaling local and small-scale initiatives 4.73 83 Enabling mechanisms for adaptation goals 4.75 84 Engaging public support 4.79 85 Co-ordination between actors 4.86 86 Resources – people, skills and finance 4.90 87 Distribution of costs 4.92 88 Learning 4.100 90 The generation and sharing of information 4.106 91 Use of information and knowledge 4.113 93 Strategic memory and social learning 4.115 93 Innovative (non-standard) approaches 4.117 93 The circles of adaptive capacity 4.119 94 Chapter 5 95 DE V E LO P ING ADA P TIV E C A P A C ITY Introduction 5.1 95 The policy framework 5.12 97 Policy appraisal 5.13 97 Investment appraisal 5.15 97 An adaptation duty 5.19 98 Reporting and monitoring 5.22 98 Indicators of adaptive capacity 5.25 99 viii Contents Specific institutional arrangements 5.29 100 The land use planning system 5.33 100 Lessons from the exemplars 5.38 101 Resources to build capacity 5.47 103 The importance of leadership and cultural change 5.48 103 Increasing knowledge and skills 5.53 104 Ensuring resources are available 5.58 105 Equity 5.60 105 Public engagement 5.71 107 The Adaptation Sub-Committee 5.80 109 Conclusion 5.82 110 References 113 Appendices A: Announcement of the study and invitation to submit evidence 128 B: Conduct of the study 141 C: Seminars and workshops held in support of the study 148 D: Members of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution 151 Abbreviations 157 Index 160 Figures Figure 2-I Global average near-surface temperatures 1850-2006 7 Figure 2-II Projected changes to winter and summer seasonal mean temperature for the 2080s 15 Figure 2-III Projected changes to annual, winter and summer mean precipitation for the 2080s 16 Figure 2-IV Change in observed temperature over Western Europe over a 200-year period 19 Figure 2-V Aerial views of Hesketh Out Marsh before and after managed realignment 28 Figure 3-I Governance structure for the Adapting to Climate Change (ACC) Programme 37 Figure 3-II Work streams in the Adapting to Climate Change (ACC) Programme 38 Figure 3-III Climate change impacts and risks identified by Government departments 39 Figure 3-IV Summary of Defra’s findings for selecting who will be asked to report on progress towards adaptation under the Climate