Nucular Weapons

and Stuff

by @emtiu

at #31C3

What Ever Happened to Nuclear Weapons?

by @emtiu at 31C3

Washington Post, 1946-11-08, p. 18 ‘Disclaimer’: I try to be unbiased, but …

● … my world view is shaped by my socialization

● … I use sources accessible to me, language-wise

If you find my representation of your/some country's history, motives or actions unfair:

● I'm sorry

● I'd like to know – feel free to talk to me later

What Ever Happened They are still around! to Nuclear Weapons? (╯°□°) ╯ ︵ ┻━┻

Main questions

● The number of nuclear weapons states is legally limited to 5, was at one point 13 and is now 9.

→ Okay, What the hell is going on? ● What can you do? ● SALT, SORT, NPT, NWS, NNWS, IAEA, START, PTBT, CTBT, CTBTO → ORLY SRSLY WTF

Nuclear weapons materials and designs

● Uranium Found in nature ● Enrichment needed for weapons use

● Complicated and expensive to prepare Natural Weapons grade

235 235 238 238

Enrichment Nuclear weapons materials and designs

● Plutonium Not found in nature ● Production in nuclear reactor, extraction by ‘reprocessing’

● Comparatively simple/unexpensive (if nuclear reactors available)

Nuclear weapons designs and materials: “Gun-type” ● Very simple design

● Lower safety from accidents

● Lower explosion yield and materials efficiency

● Larger and heavier

● No Plutonium Mid-1940s

Nuclear weapons designs and materials: “Implosion type” ● Very complicated design

● Higher safety, efficiency, larger explosion yield

● Smaller and lighter

● Evolved further (deuterium/tritium ‘boosting’)

Early 1950s

Nuclear weapons designs and materials: “Implosion type”

Early 1950s

Nuclear weapons designs and materials: “Teller-Ulam design”

● 2-stage ‘thermonuclear’: Fission ‘primary’, Fusion ‘secondary’

● Very (very!) large explosions

Early 1960s Explosive yield of nuclear weapons designs (symbol area to scale of yield)

gun-type

~15 kT

Explosive yield of nuclear weapons designs (symbol area to scale of yield)

gun-type

~15 kT boosted implosion type

~400 kT

Explosive yield of nuclear weapons designs (symbol area to scale of yield)

gun-type

~15 kT 2-stage thermonuclear fusion weapon

boosted 5

6

implosion ~50 MT k type m

~400 kT 1961

Use in war

● Two wartime uses of nuclear bombs, ~15 and ~20 kT yield

● Both against large cities: Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan

● Three major effects: – Explosive blast (~40–50% of bomb energy) – Heat radiation (~40–50% of bomb energy) – Radioactivity (~5% of bomb energy)

Explosive blast

Hiroshima: ~10 km²

Heat radiation

~half of total bomb energy

~2km distance from blast Radiation poisoning

● Large portion of deaths in attacked cities (several 10,000s)

● Typical duration of sickness before recovery or death: 3 to 30 days

● Effect compounded by pollution from fallout (esp. water)

Effects of modern weapons on cities

● Attack on 31C3 with ~10 MT bomb (largest ever US weapon) (because we <3 Snowden and be hating the NSA)

ohai #31c3 dieplzkthx lol

Effects of modern weapons on cities

● Attack on 31C3 with ~10 MT bomb (largest ever US weapon)

● Ground zero: CCH, Hamburg – 1,000,000 deaths with ~10 MT bomb – crater of ~2km in diameter – ~400 km² of building destruction

nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ Proliferation: Who's got weapons, and how many? ● Vertical proliferation: How many weapons?

● Horizontal proliferation: How many holders?

Data/image: Ploughshares Fund Proliferation: Vertical proliferation

● SALT (60s): ABM treaty (first-ever nuke limit)

● START (90s): 12,000 each

● SORT (2000s): ~2,000 deployed ready

● New START (2010s): ~1,500 deployed on 800 carriers

US–Russia ‘Mutual De-targeting’

1994: Missiles set to “No Target”-Mode or pointed into open ocean

Tom Lehrer, 1965: Who's Next?

First nuclear test

1944 USA 1949 USSR 1952 UK 1960 France 1964 China

1952 USA 1953 USSR 1957 UK 1967 China 1968 France

First fusion test

Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

● Signed 1968

● Only 5 states can be Nuclear Weapons States (NWS)

● No giving away nuclear weapons technology

● Non-NWS get support

with nuclear energy Is the NPT working?

NPT defines 5 nuclear weapons states, but 5 other states have developed nuclear weapons:

● Israel – Motivated by national security – Technology help from France, Germany – Nuclear weapons not acknowledged, no (confirmed) nuclear test – Officially: “Would not introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle East first” Is the NPT working?

NPT defines 5 nuclear weapons states, but 5 other states have developed nuclear weapons:

● India – Motivated by national security, deterrence against China – Mostly domestic scientists, research, industry – “Smiling Buddha” test in 1974 (‘peaceful’) – Reactor technology embargo (now irrelevant) – Considers NPT unfair, but would join as NWS

Is the NPT working?

NPT defines 5 nuclear weapons states, but 5 other states have developed nuclear weapons:

● Pakistan – Motivated by conflict (esp. with India) – Technology and materials from ‘peaceful’ foreign programs (esp. The Netherlands) – Success of program considered the achievement of Abdul Qadeer Khan

– First test in 1998 after new Indian tests Is the NPT working?

NPT defines 5 nuclear weapons states, but 5 other states have developed nuclear weapons:

● North Korea – Motivated by ‘self-reliance’ ideology/defense – Alleged help from Abdul Qadeer Khan – First test in 2006, again in 2009, 2013 (real-world test for CTBTO)

Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

Has the NPT worked?

NPT defines 5 nuclear weapons states, but 5 other states have developed nuclear weapons:

● South Africa – Motivated by strategic position in the Cold War – Nuclear materials shipments from Israel – No (known) tests, but weapons confirmed – Gave up nuclear weapons with end of Apartheid regime, joined NPT

Has the NPT worked? NPT defines 5 nuclear weapons states, but 3 states gained nuclear weapons by accident:

● Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus

– Nuclear weapons remnant from USSR collapse ¯\_( ツ )_/¯ 1994: Budapest Memorandum. Give up the nuclear weapons for money and security guarantees!

Has the NPT worked? NPT defines 5 nuclear weapons states, but it's an arbitrary historical ‘cut’

● Some countries came too late (after 1968) – Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran failed – Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea succeeded

“Nuclear Sharing”

NWS gives nukes to NNWS: NATO program: US nukes in Violation of the NPT!? Germany, Italy, Turkey, Belgium, The Netherlands

“Nuclear Sharing”

US/NATO position: ● NATO program: US nukes in ● Weapons only ‘stationed’ Germany, Italy, Turkey, (to be used by host state) Belgium, The Netherlands

● NPT is for keeping peace. In nuclear war, peace failed. Okay to give weapons away in peace … for use in war.

“Nuclear Sharing”

US/NATO position: ● NATO program: US nukes in Germany, Italy, Turkey, Belgium, The Netherlands

Is the NPT working?

Is the NPT working?

● Before the NPT: 5 new nuclear weapons states in 20 years, scarcely tested technology, reactors not widespread

● After the NPT: 4 (net) new nuclear weapons states in 50 years, well-developed technology, reactors globally widespread

Nuclear testing

Nuclear testing

Nuclear testing

Nuclear testing

Nuclear testing

● 1963: PTBT

● 1996: CTBT

Data/image: Ploughshares Fund Partial Test Ban Treaty

● “Treaty banning nuclear weapon tests in the atmosphere, in outer space and under water”

● Signatories: Important players, except – France – China – North Korea

Partial Test Ban Treaty: Why?

Longish-lived (~15 yr) beta-radioisotopes – Caesium-137 – Strontium-90 Found in milk and childrens' teeth Pics/full story: The Appendix: Atomic Anxiety and the Tooth Fairy: Citizen Science in the Midcentury Midwest

Partial Test Ban Treaty: Why?

Short-lived radiogenic isotopes as historical markers:

Partial Test Ban Treaty: Why?

Short-lived radiogenic isotopes as historical markers:

Research: Centre d'Etudes Nucléaires de Bordeaux Gradignan Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

1996: Don't cause nuclear explosions, period.

● Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization Preparatory Commission

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: Why? CTBTO-sponsored video artwork: “1945–1998”

by Isao Hashimoto

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization Preparatory Commission

Nuclear explosion detection: Vela incident

● Sets of specialized satellites to detect nuclear blasts 1963–1989

● ‘Vela Incident’ in 1979: classified info, inconclusive analysis, no consensus

Nuclear explosion detection: Vela incident

● Sets of specialized satellites to detect nuclear blasts 1963–1989

● ‘Vela Incident’ in 1979: classified info, inconclusive analysis, no consensus

● Most popular conspiracy theory: Joint South African/Israeli test

● Discovered cosmic gamma-ray bursts by accident

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization Preparatory Commission

North Korean nuclear test 2006

What's the problem with the CTBT?

It's never entered into effect! (╯ ° □ °) ╯ ︵ ┻━┻ ● Missing ratifications: – China, USA, Israel, Iran, Egypt ● Missing signatures: – India, North Korea, Pakistan

What can you do?

● Hackers: Look up “Nuclear Disarmament Hacks” on media.ccc.de – great introduction by Moritz into technological challenges of getting rid of nukes

From: Nuclear Disarmament Hacks by Moritz Kütt, CC-BY-NC-SA 4.0 What can you do?

● Citizens of Pakistan, India, ● Citizens of Pakistan, India, [North Korea]: Israel, [North Korea]: Push for CTBT signature! Push for NPT signature!

● Citizens of the USA, Iran, ● Citizens of Germany, Italy, Israel, China, Egypt: Turkey, The Netherlands, Push for CTBT ratification! Belgium: Get rid of NATO nukes!

What can you do?

What everyone can do (democratic pressure, publicity, …!): (in order of pink-fluffy-unicorns-dancing-on-rainbows factor) – Find a concept for a new NPT to include all NWS – Help the CTBTO spread nuclear test awareness (@ctbto_alerts) – Solve the problem of proliferation through nuclear power

What can you do?

What everyone can do (democratic pressure, publicity, …!): (in order of pink-fluffy-unicorns-dancing-on-rainbows factor) – Find a concept for a new NPT to include all NWS – Help the CTBTO spread nuclear test awareness (@ctbto_alerts) – Solve the problem of proliferation through nuclear power – Get rid of nuclear weapons!

Thank you!

● Find me on Twitter as @emtiu

● I read email sent to [email protected]

Find this talk, slides etc. through media.ccc.de later