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Hawaiian Airlines HAWAIIAN AIRLINES LONG NASDAQ: HA PT $53.70 (+34.10%) Catherine Cheng Karna Venkatraj Ananya Rajesh Ryan Spencer INVESTMENT THESIS MARKET VIEW Sustained downward pressure revolves around increasing competition in Hawaii $70.00 6,000 (21.90%) $60.00 UAL increases service 5,000 to 40 daily flights (15.89%) Speculation on and $50.00 LUV entry late 2018 4,000 $40.00 3,000 $30.00 2,000 $20.00 1,000 $10.00 $0.00 0 9/28/2016 11/17/2016 1/6/2017 2/25/2017 4/16/2017 6/5/2017 7/25/2017 9/13/2017 Volume (Thousands) Price Close INVESTMENT THESIS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY OVERVIEW VALUATION RISKS AND MITIGANTS MARKET VIEW Capacity increase and threat of price war drives HA revenue down United Airlines Hawaiian Entry Southwest Hawaiian Entry ▪ June 2017: United Airlines announces 40 new direct flights ▪ May 2017: Earnings call mentions a inevitable expansion of to Honolulu, Kona, Maui, and Lihue LUV into Hawaiian markets Flights service Honolulu (HNL), Kona (KOA), Lihue (LIH) ▪ September 2017: and Maui (OGG) Leaked document suggests that entry into Hawaii Flights are operated from Chicago, Denver, San LUV has placed a firm order for 14 Boeing 737-MAX 8 Francisco, and Los Angeles aircrafts, equipped for long flights over water ▪ October 11, 2017: LUV announces Hawaii entry Projected Increase in United Monthly Flights The Southwest Effect (2000-2010) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total 350% 322% 827 764 973 846 867 983 1,071 1,012 786 852 785 1,001 10,767 300% 2017 250% 207.20% 1,894 1,761 2,179 1,946 2,016 2,215 2,380 2,273 1,861 1,965 1,835 2,239 24,564 2018 200% 150% 106.10% 104.10% 100% ▪ Difference in Flights 3,030 Flights 54.30% 55.10% 67.30% % Change 42.30% 41.00% ▪ Difference in Capacity 466,620 Seats 50% 0% ▪ Potential Loss of Operating Revenue $102,656,400 -50% ▪ Change in HA Operating Revenue (4.19%) -41% -28.90% -28.60% -41.40% -39.90% -100% -66.40% -68.80% Market Average Fare Decline Total Market O&D Passenger Increase INVESTMENT THESIS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY OVERVIEW VALUATION RISKS AND MITIGANTS VARIANT VIEW HA has been undervalued by investors focused on increasing capacity Overreaction to New Entrants Investors have overlooked the non-competitive nature of a majority of UAL’s 1 routes and the long-haul mitigant on the Southwest Effect which reduces the ability of LUV to wage price wars in Hawaii. Long-Haul Luxury Experience The market has overestimated the ability of UAL and LUV to capture market 2 share in Hawaii given HA’s advantage in providing a long-haul luxury experience and Hawaii’s less price-sensitive tourist demographic. Hawaiian Route Advantage Competitor news has overshadowed HA’s revenue expansion potential resulting 3 from move into new markets with A321neos and pivot away from domestic markets into international markets with Japan Airlines partnership. INVESTMENT THESIS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY OVERVIEW VALUATION RISKS AND MITIGANTS 1. OVERREACTION TO NEW ENTRANTS 64% of UAL’s new flight routes do not compete with HA Comparative Route Map Capacity Impact United Airlines ▪ Only 4 of United’s new routes compete San Francisco to Maui (2 flights daily) Los Angeles to Maui Los Angeles to Lihue ▪ Reduces projected impact by Hawaiian Airlines Southwest Airlines $54 million United Airlines Total Competing Estimated Actual Difference in Flights 3,030 1,440 1,440 Difference in Capacity (Seats) 466,620 221,760 174,303 Loss of Revenue $102,656,400 $48,787,200 $38,346,739 Change in HA Revenue 4.19% 1.99% 1.56% INVESTMENT THESIS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY OVERVIEW VALUATION RISKS AND MITIGANTS 1. OVERREACTION TO NEW ENTRANTS LUV effect is unlikely to manifest in Hawaiian market and has become marginal Hawaii Resists Southwest Advantage Diminishing Effect ▪ LUV’s pricing power is limited by its cost per seat mile ▪ Southwest has morphed into a hybrid carrier from its traditional low-cost carrier identification despite popular A321neo outclasses the 737-MAX8 belief that it still offers the cheapest routes A330-200 outclasses the 737-800 Southwest’s average fare from Dallas to Houston has 4.50¢ increased 50.92% from 2010-2017 737-800 Southwest’s average fare from Dallas to San Antonio 4.00¢ A321 has increased 39.27% from 2010-2017 A330-200 737-MAX8 3.50¢ ▪ Southwest underperforms in comparative route analysis regardless of haul length, advance time, and geographical A321neo 3.00¢ region 2.50¢ Route Lowest Competitor Fare Lowest Southwest Fare Differential Operating Cost per Seat Mile Operating Cost Hartford-Chicago (21-day advance; 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 $392/United $445/Southwest 13.52% seven-day stay; any time) Capacity (Seat) New York-Denver (90-day advance; $235/Delta $402/Southwest 71.06% seven-day stay; any time) ▪ Difference in CASM exaggerated by long haul difference San Diego-Las Vegas (three-day $231/Delta $232/Southwest 0.43% advance; three-day stay; any time) 2016 CASM (ex Transport-Related Costs) Dallas-Houston (one-day advance; $453/United $454/Southwest 0.22% 10.95¢ 11.14¢ three-day stay; any time) Dallas-Houston (14-day advance; $266/American $266/Southwest 0.00% 9.03¢ seven-day stay; any time) Dallas-Houston (90-day advance; $211/United $212/Southwest 0.47% seven-day stay; any time) Boston-Ft. Myers (seven-day $316/United $410/Southwest 29.75% advance; three-day stay; any time) San Francisco-Los Angeles (28-day $105/United $138/Southwest 31.43% advance; seven-day stay; any time) Seattle-St. Louis (90-day advance; $216/Alaska $304/Southwest 40.74% seven-day stay; any time) Minneapolis-Phoenix (seven-day $375/Delta $446/Southwest 18.93% Alaska Hawaiian Southwest advance; four-day stay; any time) INVESTMENT THESIS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY OVERVIEW VALUATION RISKS AND MITIGANTS 1. OVERREACTION TO NEW ENTRANTS LUV effect is unlikely to manifest in Hawaiian market and has become marginal Hawaii Resists Southwest Advantage Diminishing Effect ▪ LUV’s pricingALGT powerDAL is limited by its cost per seat mile ▪ Southwest has morphed into a hybrid carrier from its HA 0.3% 16.8% ▪ Low cost fare has already traditional low-cost carrier identification despite popular 24.5% A321neo outclasses the 737-MAX8been introduced to belief that it still offers the cheapest routes A330-200 outclasses the 737-800Hawaii Southwest’s average fare from Dallas to Houston has ALK ▪ 27.96% of yield is increased 50.92% from 2010-2017 4.50¢ 10.9% 737-800 >12.50¢ Island Air Southwest’s average fare from Dallas to San Antonio 4.00¢ A321 0.7% ▪ has increased 39.27% from 2010-2017 Fare introduction A330has -not200 737-MAX8Virgin changed HA yield or 2.0% ▪ Southwest underperforms in comparative route analysis 3.50¢ average Hawaii fare price UAL AAL regardless of haul length, advance time, and geographical 27.8% A321neo 3.00¢ 17.1% region 2.50¢Average Q1’17 Yield for Hawaii Flights Above 2000 Miles Route Lowest Competitor Fare Lowest Southwest Fare Differential Operating Cost per Seat Mile Operating Cost Hartford-Chicago (21-day advance; 16.00¢ 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 $392/United $445/Southwest 13.52% seven-day stay; any time) Capacity (Seat) New York-Denver (90-day advance; 15.00¢ $235/Delta $402/Southwest 71.06% HA AAL UAL seven-day stay; any time) ▪ DifferenceVirgin in CASMIsland exaggeratedAir by long haul difference San Diego-Las Vegas (three-day 14.00¢ $231/Delta $232/Southwest 0.43% advance; three-day stay; any time) 13.00¢ 2016 CASM (ex Transport-Related Costs) Dallas-Houston (one-day advance; $453/United $454/Southwest 0.22% ALK 10.95¢ 11.14¢DAL three-day stay; any time) 12.00¢ Dallas-Houston (14-day advance; $266/American $266/Southwest 0.00% 9.03¢ seven-day stay; any time) 11.00¢ Dallas-Houston (90-day advance; $211/United $212/Southwest 0.47% Average Average Yield seven-day stay; any time) 10.00¢ Boston-Ft. Myers (seven-day $316/United $410/Southwest 29.75% advance; three-day stay; any time) 9.00¢ San Francisco-Los Angeles (28-day $105/United $138/Southwest 31.43% 8.00¢ advance; seven-day stay; any time) Seattle-St. Louis (90-day advance; ALGT $216/Alaska $304/Southwest 40.74% 7.00¢ seven-day stay; any time) Minneapolis-Phoenix (seven-day 3,500.00 4,000.00 4,500.00 5,000.00 5,500.00 $375/Delta $446/Southwest 18.93% Alaska Hawaiian Southwest advance; four-day stay; any time) Average Miles Flown INVESTMENT THESIS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY OVERVIEW VALUATION RISKS AND MITIGANTS 2. LONG-HAUL LUXURY EXPERIENCE Hawaiian Airlines uniquely adaptive to customer profile and long-haul routes Leisure Customer Significance of the Leisure Consumer 511,033 496,176 LCC Advantages in Short Haul Vacation 66,418 Conventions 390,823 Wide Range of Customers Marriage 344,839 Government 4,895,369 Customer Loyalty Visit Family Other Low Cost Value Proposition (2017P) Lower Price Sensitivity The traditional strategy and advantages of LCC and legacy carriers do not succeed when applied to a Hawaiian market defined by unique customer needs. *only food and lodging INVESTMENT THESIS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY OVERVIEW VALUATION RISKS AND MITIGANTS 3. HAWAIIAN ROUTE ADVANTAGE A321neo’s operational efficiency allows access to underserved markets HA’s New A321neo High-margin, medium-haul narrowbody suited for opening new, untapped markets. Seats Range (Miles) Fuel Efficiency A330-200 286 8357.4 -14% 767-300 258 5975 -20% A321neo 189 3700 0% Midmarket Routes Pacific Rim Expansion Long-Haul Expansion A321neo enables flights from mid-sized A321neo allows more flights to Pacific A321neo frees up A330 for expansion markets and flights to neighbor islands Rim and diversification from Hawaii and entry into more
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